IPO initial returns in China: Underpricing or overvaluation?

This paper separates the amount of IPO underpricing(primary market underpricing) and overvaluation(secondary market overvaluation) from the value of an IPO's initial return to evaluate the relative importance of these two factors and their main determinants. Using data on the IPOs of 948 Chinese firms, we find that average initial returns are 66% and that underpricing and overvaluation are between 14–22% and 44–53%, respectively, depending on the method used to assess firms' intrinsic values. In addition, while both the value of the initial return and the extent of overvaluation are significantly negatively related to post-IPO long-run stock performance, overvaluation can predict post-IPO performance better than the value of the initial return. Value uncertainty in IPOs is positively related to both underpricing and overvaluation, and both the underwriter's reputation and the existence of pricing regulation are positively related to underpricing. Investor sentiment has a positive effect on overvaluation but has no effect or a negative effect on underpricing. Overall, our results suggest that in China overvaluation accounts for a larger proportion of the initial return than underpricing,and that underpricing and overvaluation have different determinants.     

Accounting conservatism and IPO underpricing: China evidence

This study examines how accounting conservatism impacts underpricing of initial public offerings (IPOs) in the Chinese stock market. In addition, we investigate how information asymmetry affects the association of accounting conservatism with IPO underpricing. Based on regression analysis of 674 A-shares companies that went public through IPOs at both Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges in China during 2001–2009, we find that (1) accounting conservatism is negatively associated with the magnitude of IPO underpricing; and (2) the relationship between accounting conservatism and IPO underpricing is more pronounced when information asymmetry is high. The findings should shed a light on what drives IPO underpricing and how it could be affected by accounting conservatism in an emerging economy.     

The Wealth Effect of Demutualization: Evidence From the U.S. Property-Liability and Life Insurance Industries

This study examines the wealth effect of demutualization initial public offerings (IPOs) by investigating underpricing and postconversion long‐run stock performance. Our results suggest that there is more “money left on the table” for demutualized insurers than for non‐demutualized insurers. We show that higher underpricing for demutualized firms can be explained by greater market demand, market sentiment, and the size of the offering. Further, contrary to previous research reporting an average underperformance of industrial IPOs, we show that demutualization IPOs outperform non‐IPO firms with comparable size and book‐to‐market ratios and non‐demutualized insurers. We present evidence that the outperformance in stock returns is mainly attributable to improvement in post‐demutualization operating performance and demand at the time of the IPOs. The combined results of underpricing and long‐term performance suggest that the wealth of policyholders who choose stock rather than cash or policy credits is not harmed by demutualization. Stockholders who purchase demutualized company shares either during or after the IPO have earned superior returns. Our findings are consistent with the efficiency improvement hypothesis.     

Liquidity Benefits from IPO Underpricing: Ownership Dispersion or Information Effect

The positive correlation between initial underpricing and liquidity in the secondary market several months after an initial public offering (IPO) has previously been attributed to ownership dispersion induced by underpricing. We find that public information production is another channel by which underpricing improves liquidity. Using a sample of IPOs from Euronext, we find that analyst coverage engendered by initial underpricing reduces information asymmetry costs and illiquidity in the secondary market. The impact of information asymmetry is statistically more significant on measures based on adverse selection costs than on those based on the proportion of informed traders in the market.     

The marketing role of IPOs: evidence from internet stocks

This paper explores the potential marketing benefits of going public and of IPO underpricing. We examine the impact of IPO underpricing on website traffic, which is a direct measure of product market performance for internet firms. If underpricing attracts media attention and creates valuable publicity, we expect an increase in web traffic following the IPO. We find that web traffic growth in the month after the IPO is positively and significantly associated with initial returns, and the effect is economically significant. We also investigate media reaction to initial returns for a broader sample of IPOs. The results suggest that the marketing benefits of underpricing extend beyond the internet sector and the “hot issues” market of the late 1990s.     

Initial and Long-Run IPO Returns in Central and Eastern Europe

ABSTRACT

This article provides original evidence on IPO underpricing and long-run underperformance in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) and compares results to the European Union’s developed capital markets from 2000 to 2009. Using both index-adjusted and CAPM-adjusted returns, we find significant underpricing that is significantly higher than underpricing of comparable IPOs in the European Union’s developed capital markets. We show that the CEE’s initial IPO returns also exhibit significantly higher volatility. In line with the asymmetric information theory, we indicate that smaller IPOs in the CEE region have greater underpricing than the larger IPOs. Contrary to the literature, we unambiguously confirm long-run underperformance toward the benchmarks. In some model specifications, we also find that IPO long-run underperformance in the CEE region is less present than in the European Union’s developed capital markets.     

UNDERPRICING OF IPOS THAT FOLLOW PRIVATE PLACEMENT

In this study we examine the underpricing of initial public offerings (IPOs) by firms that have private placements of equity before their IPOs (PP IPO firms). We find that PP IPOs are associated with significantly less underpricing than their peers. Furthermore, PP IPOs are associated with lower underwriting spreads, more reputable underwriting syndicates, and greater postissue analyst coverage as compared to IPOs that are issued by their industry peers under similar market conditions. Consistent with the implications of the information asymmetry explanation for IPO underpricing, our findings suggest that companies could benefit by conveying their quality via successful pre‐IPO private placements that help reduce the cost of going public.     

IPO Market Cycles: Bubbles or Sequential Learning?

Both IPO volume and average initial returns are highly autocorrelated. Further, more companies tend to go public following periods of high initial returns. However, we find that the level of average initial returns at the time of filing contains no information about that company's eventual underpricing. Both the cycles in initial returns and the lead-lag relation between initial returns and IPO volume are predominantly driven by information learned during the registration period. More positive information results in higher initial returns and more companies filing IPOs soon thereafter.     

西方IPO抑价理论及对中国IPO研究的启示

西方IPO抑价理论大多在信息不对称、委托代理、信号显示等信息经济学框架下,基于资本市场的有效性假设而提出的,即假定二级市场对股票的定价是合理的,IPO抑价是源于发行定价偏低.中国A股市场IPO抑价率长期高企但逐年下降,对该问题的研究,不能简单套用西方理论,而必须结合我国证券市场环境及IPO发行审核制度,将制度因素作为内生变量来考察.     

Cross‐sectional determinants of post‐IPO stock performance: evidence from China

This paper examines the cross‐sectional determinants of post‐IPO long‐term stock returns in China. We document that the aftermarket P/E ratio has the most robust negative association with post‐IPO stock returns. The negative relation indicates that the market corrects the aftermarket overvaluation of IPO firms in the long run. Underwriter reputation has a positive effect on post‐IPO stock returns, while board size has a negative impact, consistent with the views that reputable underwriters mitigate the information asymmetry in IPO pricing and over‐sized boards reduce the effectiveness of corporate governance. However, we find little evidence indicating that the equity ownership structure is significantly associated with post‐IPO stock returns.     

The Underpricing and Excess Returns of Initial Public Offerings in Taiwan Based on Noisy Trading: A Stochastic Frontier Model

Initial public offerings (IPOs) are typically offered at prices lower than the transaction price in the early aftermarket. With a stochastic frontier model, we measured the fair offer price of an IPO and then the deliberate IPO underpricing and the market misvaluation based on the estimated fair offer price. Our results show that IPOs are deliberately underpriced. The extent of noisy trading leading to significantly higher market transaction prices explains the excess IPO returns. We conclude that initial IPO returns result primarily from the noisy trading activities instead of the deliberate IPO underpricing.     

An examination of IPO secondary market returns

IPO stock prices increased approximately 2.3% on the first day of secondary market trading over the period 1993 through 2003. While these aftermarket returns are accentuated during 1999 and 2000, they persist after the bubble burst and even increase as a percentage of total underpricing. We explore several non-mutually exclusive hypotheses to explain our findings including price support, laddering, retail sentiment, and information asymmetry. Our results are most consistent with the view that higher secondary market returns accrue to IPOs with more information asymmetries possibly due to price and aggregate demand uncertainty.     

The Pricing of Insurer Demutualization Initial Public Offerings

This article examines the pricing of the initial public offerings (IPOs) that follow insurance company demutualizations. Insurers that convert from mutual to stock form typically cite the need for capital as a key motivation. Given that capital adequacy is a primary regulatory objective for insurers, one would expect that for a given number of shares to be sold, these firms would price their offerings to maximize proceeds. However, the vast literature on IPO pricing suggests various theories as to why it may be in the issuing firm's best interest to underprice its offering. By examining the initial and long‐run stock returns for these conversion IPOs, the existence and degree of underpricing, as characterized by large initial returns, can be determined. It is observed that on average demutualization insurer IPOs post significantly higher first‐day returns than nondemutualization insurer IPOs. These gains would accrue to the initial investors and to those policyholders who receive compensation in the form of shares in the newly created stock insurer. Attractive returns are sustained for both groups of insurers during the first few years after IPO.     

Property rights and access to equity capital in China

This study uses recent improvements to China's physical and intellectual property protections to test information asymmetry, signaling, and litigation risk theories of initial public offering (IPO) underpricing. We find robust evidence that stronger physical and intellectual property protections are associated with lower initial returns, especially among smaller IPOs and non-equity carve-outs. This result is consistent with the notion that property rights reduce information asymmetry among IPO participants; however, some of China's reforms, including the 2014 establishment of specialized intellectual property courts in Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangzhou, appear to have increased litigation risk. Additional tests indicate that property rights positively impact the likelihood that an IPO firm is backed by venture capital. Overall, these results are consistent with the idea that strong property rights help alleviate the adverse selection problem that results from information asymmetry among firms and equity investors.     

Chinese IPO activity,pricing, and market cycles

We examine the activity, pricing, and market cycles of 1,380 Chinese A share IPOs over the period 1991–2005 and find initial underpricing of 238%. The government restrictions on IPO offer price and quota allocation cause pricing structural breaks and attribute more than half of initial underpricing. A multifactor model that includes firm’s characteristics, excess demand for IPO shares, and the government restrictions explains cross-sectional initial returns, after controlling for industrial differences and stock market conditions. In addition, monthly IPO volume and average initial return are highly correlated. A VAR model indicates that initial return leads IPO volume by 6 months.     

The effects of R&D, venture capital, and technology on the underpricing of IPOs in Taiwan

Information asymmetry and value uncertainty causes high -research and development (R&D) or high-tech Initial Public Offerings (IPOs) to become underpriced. Venture capital can serve as a moderator to mitigate the information asymmetry and value uncertainty to reduce IPO underpricing. High-tech industries significantly contribute to Taiwan??s economic growth. With the unique Taiwan data, we find that venture-backed IPOs are less underpriced. More importantly, IPO underpricing due to technology decreases with the use of venture capital and decreases with the interaction between R&D expenditure and technology. Technology requirement reduces the underpricing of high-R&D IPOs. Accordingly, R&D spending reduces the underpricing of high-tech IPOs.     

Institutional Allocation in Initial Public Offerings: Empirical Evidence

We analyze institutional allocation in initial public offerings (IPOs) using a new data set of U.S. offerings between 1997 and 1998. We document a positive relationship between institutional allocation and day one IPO returns. This is partly explained by the practice of giving institutions more shares in IPOs with strong premarket demand, consistent with book-building theories. However, institutional allocation also contains private information about first-day IPO returns not reflected in premarket demand and other public information. Our evidence supports book-building theories of IPO underpricing, but suggests that institutional allocation in underpriced issues is in excess of that explained by book-building alone.     

Adverse selection, public information, and underpricing in IPOs

This paper generalizes the informational environment of the Rock model to address empirical evidence and conjectures that cannot be addressed within the standard model based on informed and uninformed investors such as underpricing being positively related to market returns observed prior to the IPO, the number of IPOs being positively related to market returns, underpricing being partly predictable based on public information, and the return to uninformed participation being negative overall but positively related to market returns observed prior to the IPO. Finally, the model suggests that a positive relation between market returns and underpricing need not represent an inefficiency in the pricing of IPOs.