Governing the transition to low-carbon futures: A critical survey of energy scenarios for 2050

There is a growing scientific consensus that limiting the increase in global average temperature to around 2 °C above pre-industrial levels is necessary to avoid unacceptable impact on the climate system. This requires that the developed countries’ emissions are radically reduced during the next 40 years. Energy scenario studies provide insights on the societal transitions that might be implied by such low-carbon futures, and in this paper we discuss how a greater attention to different governance and institutional issues can complement future scenario exercises. The analysis is based on a critical review of 20 quantitative and qualitative scenario studies, all of relevance for meeting long-term climate policy objectives. The paper: (a) analyzes some key differences in energy technology mixes and primary energy use patterns across these studies; (b) briefly explores the extent and the nature of the societal challenges and policy responses implied; and (c) discusses a number of important implications for the design and scope of future scenario studies. Our review shows that in previous scenario studies the main attention is typically paid to analyzing the impact of well-defined and uniform policy instruments, while fewer studies factor in the role of institutional change in achieving different energy futures. We therefore point towards a number of strategies of integrating issues of transition governance into future scenario analyses, and argue for a closer synthesis of qualitative and quantitative scenario building.     

Benefits from U.S. Monetary Policy Experimentation in the Days of Samuelson and Solow and Lucas

A policy maker knows two models. One implies an exploitable inflation-unemployment trade-off, the other does not. The policy maker's prior probability over the two models is part of his state vector. Bayes' law converts the prior probability into a posterior probability and gives the policy maker an incentive to experiment. For models calibrated to U.S. data through the early 1960s, we compare the outcomes from two Bellman equations. The first tells the policy maker to "experiment and learn." The second tells him to "learn but don't experiment." In this way, we isolate a component of government policy that is due to experimentation and estimate the benefits from intentional experimentation. We interpret the Bellman equation that learns but does not intentionally experiment as an "anticipated utility" model and study how well its outcomes approximate those from the "experiment and learn" Bellman equation. The approximation is good. For our calibrations, the benefits from purposeful experimentation are small because random shocks are big enough to provide ample unintentional experimentation.     

Standards in transitions: Catalyzing infrastructure change

Infrastructures are difficult to change in response to new societal demands. They are entrenched, materially and socio-institutionally, and seem to be ‘locked-in’. Scholars have addressed this problem by, for example, devising strategies for de-entrenchment, alternative path creation and transition management that focus on the process of change (emphasis on ‘how’). In this paper, we take a novel and counterintuitive approach, and focus on standards as a starting point for change (emphasis on ‘what’). We analyze in what manner standards can play a catalyzing role in infrastructure transitions and which standards characteristics facilitate in doing so.Central to our framework are the concepts of gateway technology and compatibility. We analyze three cases, i.e., the modal shift in freight container transport; the transition from barcode to Radio Frequency Identifier (RFID); and the possibility of a Dutch energy transition from natural gas to hydrogen.The article concludes that standards can catalyze infrastructure transitions if, first, their content well-reflects relevant stakeholder interests; and, second, if standard specifications are simple and performance-oriented. Their impact is highest in stable markets and for expanding infrastructures. Under these conditions standards can exploit the forces of entrenchment and socio-technical lock-in to bring about change.     

The behavioral basis of policies fostering long-run transitions: Stakeholders,limited rationality and social context

Writings on sustainability transitions generally pay slight attention to the specific behavioral characteristics of individuals, groups and organizations. This paper examines how modern insights about bounded rationality, social interaction and learning can contribute to making transition polices more effective in addressing barriers and opportunities to realize a sustainability transition in the near future. We argue that the behavioral underpinnings of features like lock-in, surprises in innovation systems and network interactions have been insufficiently elaborated and connected to policy design. We identify and illustrate the most important behavioral features of relevant stakeholders in transition processes. By focusing on behavioral features at both individual and organizational levels, we arrive at recommendations for policy makers regarding important barriers to change and how to overcome these. Specific policy insights are offered at multiple levels, for different stakeholders, and associated with both behavioral biases and social interactions. The analysis combines insights from the literatures on sustainability transitions, “environmental–behavioral economics”, and behavioral foundations of learning and innovation. Our framework may serve as a basis for coherent behavior studies of transitions that otherwise run the risk of being ad hoc. This will improve conditional forecasting of system responses to transition policies.     

Complexity science and theory development for the futures field

Complexity science unifies some forty diverse features that arise from the evolution of the civil system and these underlie theory development in the futures field. The main features of an evolutionary methodology deal with emergence, macrolaws, civil or societal transitions, macrosystem design, and the absorption of extreme events. The following principles apply: (1) The civil system is an open system in which investment capital is the system growth parameter that drives it away from equilibrium, with the formation of spatial structure. (2) The historical circumstances of human settlements provide a path dependency in respect of natural resources, defence, energy, transport, or communications. (3) Emergent properties arise within a complex adaptive system from which a theory of the system can be formulated, and these are not deducible from the features of the transacting entities. (4) Futures research identifies the conditions that will lead to an irreversible civil or societal phase transition to a new stage of development. (5) Emergent behaviour in the macrostructure at regional or continental levels can be influenced through critical intervention points in the global macrosystems.     

Good disclosure,bad disclosure

We study real-efficiency implications of disclosing public information in a model with multiple dimensions of uncertainty where market prices convey information to a real decision maker. Paradoxically, when disclosure concerns a variable that the real decision maker cares to learn about, disclosure negatively affects price informativeness, and in markets that are effective in aggregating private information, this negative price-informativeness effect can dominate so that better disclosure negatively impacts real efficiency. When disclosure concerns a variable that the real decision maker already knows much about, disclosure always improves price informativeness and real efficiency. Our analysis has important empirical and policy implications for different contexts such as disclosure of stress test information and regulation of credit ratings.     

Future sustainability and images

Ambitions for sustainable development invariably lead to pondering the future, because sustainability issues require a future oriented transition of existing, unsustainable systems and practices. Working towards transition requires thorough experimentation with a broad range of innovation projects. However, in the public arena, many such projects are met with stereotypical images, which influence their innovative potential in often unpredictable ways. What is the role of multiple images in complex sustainable development issues, and what are promising approaches to deal with their associated problems? We report current insights from selected cases from TransForum, a large-scale innovation programme toward transition of Dutch agriculture. Our preliminary results show that that simple images can cause a disregard of complexity and that a negative societal image can stifle a project's innovative potential. Images need to me monitored and managed to increase the future potential of innovation projects. Visualisation techniques may foster taking complexity into account in an innovation project. Furthermore, increasing image awareness can help a project to adapt more effectively to existing societal discourses and the images embedded in them. Finally, fostering effective transition requires the creation of new, enticing, images, that do justice to the ambition for transition.     

State‐Dependent Transmission of Monetary Policy in the Euro Area

We estimate a logit mixture vector autoregressive model describing monetary policy transmission in the euro area over the period 1999–2015. In contrast to other classes of nonlinear vector autoregressive models, regime affiliation is neither strictly binary, nor binary with a transition period, and based on multiple variables. We show that monetary policy transmission in the euro area can be described as a mixture of two states. In both states, output and prices are found to decrease after contractionary monetary policy shocks. However, the effects of monetary policy are less enduring in the “crisis state.”     

Problem structuring for transitions: The case of Swiss waste management

Transdisciplinarity is considered an appropriate approach in supporting transitions of complex socio-technical systems as such transitions demand highly contextualized real world knowledge and valuations. This holds especially true for the problem identification and structuring (initial) phase of a transition project, which aims at supporting goal formation based on a sound understanding and representation of the system's current state and its dynamics. Throughout this phase, it is important that all relevant perspectives in terms of expertise and interests are considered and adequately fed into a process of knowledge integration. This paper presents in its first part the structuring for complex transitions (SCT) procedure aiming at this requirement. The procedure has been specifically designed for problem structuring in socio-technical systems in the initial phase of a transition project. The results of the procedure provide sound inputs for the next project phases and the transition methods applied therein, but can themselves already be used as fruitful orientations in strategy development. The second part of the paper briefly outlines the application of the SCT procedure to Swiss waste management. This application involved 48 participants who reached consensus on relevant impact factors and developed a shared vision for managing a complex transition process in the area of waste management. The approach is marked by high feasibility and socially robust results.     

Forecasting stock volatility with economic policy uncertainty: A smooth transition GARCH-MIDAS model

Given that policy uncertainty shocks in the economic environment can exacerbate financial market volatility and pose financial risks, this paper utilizes a smooth transition version of the GARCH-MIDAS model to investigate the impact of different structural state changes in economic policy uncertainty (EPU) on stock market volatility. The extended model explains the nonlinear effects of the macro variables and the structural break changes in regime transitions. The empirical results confirm that the EPU indicators provide effective prediction information for stock volatility from the in-sample and out-of-sample analyses, which reveals that the smooth transition model provides an effective method for detecting the possible regime changes between stock volatility and macroeconomic uncertainty. Additionally, we further confirm that some category-specific EPU indicators also have strong smooth transition behaviour with respect to stock volatility. More important, our new model provides significant economic value to investors from a utility gain perspective. Overall, the institutional changes present in EPU play a nonnegligible and important role in stock market volatility. Accurate identification of the structural features of financial data helps investors deepen their understanding of the sources of stock market volatility.     

False advertising

There is widespread evidence that some firms use false advertising to overstate the value of their products. We consider a model in which a policy maker can punish such false claims. We characterize an equilibrium where false advertising actively influences rational buyers and analyze the effects of policy under different welfare objectives. We establish precise conditions where policy optimally permits a positive level of false advertising and show how these conditions vary intuitively with demand and market parameters. We also consider the implications for product investment and industry self‐regulation and connect our results to the literature on demand curvature.     

Information-sharing in services for military personnel in transition to civilian life

An analysis of policy and practice documents on information-sharing in the transition of military personnel into civilian life finds (1) a complex transition pathway along which the responsibility for co-ordination of transition shifts from service providers to those in transition; (2) a lack of attention to operationalizing information-sharing for different service circumstances; (3) the potential for developing a framework for managing information-sharing; and (4) a need for further research to draw on the evidence of transitions and information-sharing in other policy sectors.     

The role of biosolar technologies in future energy supply making scenarios for the Netherlands: Energy port and energy farm

This paper assesses the possible roles of biosolar energy systems in the Netherlands in the coming years. The appraisal is made in the light of EU Directives on renewable energy and reduction of CO₂ emissions, and the new Dutch Energy Agreement for Sustainable Growth. The assessment is made within the Dutch BioSolar Cells (BSCs) research programme on photosynthesis and its application in fuel production. Part of the programme is committed to societal debate by considering different options and uses of biosolar technology. To provide building blocks for these discussions, we conducted a comprehensive desk study supplemented with key expert interviews, and we identified and articulated the main drivers for the Dutch transition towards more sustainable energy supply. Next, these drivers were used to develop two futures: energy port and energy farm, representing institutional settings in which BSC technology could be implemented. Both represent fundamentally different types of innovation and are useful in assessing the effect of policies on future energy systems. Both scenarios were used in workshops with BSC researchers and policymakers. Their possible implications for the BSC programme itself, as well as the broader policy significance of the use of biosolar technologies in the Netherlands, are indicated.     

A framework for risk criteria for critical infrastructures: fundamentals and case studies in the Netherlands

Critical infrastructures are complex societal systems. For that reason, risk criteria for critical infrastructures are also ‘part’ of the risk criteria for complex societal systems. The questions to be resolved are: (1) are the societal risk criteria of complex systems defined and quantifiable; and (2) is it known how the risk criteria of critical infrastructures relate to the risk criteria of the complex system as a whole. In other words, what certainty is there that the risk criteria of critical infrastructures meet the risk criteria of complex systems as a whole. A complex system in this respect may be a society as a whole, e.g. a nation.     

A corporate strategy for realizing equal employment opportunity

This paper examines the American corporation's societal environment and finds that an Equal Employment Index (EEI) can serve as a measurement tool to evaluate alternative hiring policies in light of corporate Equal Employment objectives. To help managers choose the “best” hiring policy, a manpower planning model is developed in conjunction with the EEI to solve for the employment policy that comes as close as possible, within manpower flow constraints, to realizing Equal Employment objectives. With this knowledge the manager executes the hiring policy he chooses. The resulting changes in the work force are then evaluated via the EEI and compared to the a priori outcome of the manpower planning model. The difference is used to guide and direct managerial behavior toward attainment of Equal Employment objectives.     

Credit rating dynamics in the presence of unknown structural breaks

In many credit risk and pricing applications, credit transition matrix is modeled by a constant transition probability or generator matrix for Markov processes. Based on empirical evidence, we model rating transition processes as piecewise homogeneous Markov chains with unobserved structural breaks. The proposed model provides explicit formulas for the posterior distribution of the time-varying rating transition generator matrices, the probability of structural break at each period and prediction of transition matrices in the presence of possible structural breaks. Estimating the model by credit rating history, we show that the structural break in rating transitions can be captured by the proposed model. We also show that structural breaks in rating dynamics are different for different industries. We then compare the prediction performance of the proposed and time-homogeneous Markov chain models.     

Integrating human resource accounting into the public policy process: An illustration

Traditionally, public policy formulation has been accomplished through political compromise. In recent years, growing public pressure for austerity and accountability in the use of public resources has made the analytical approach to policy formulation and evaluation increasingly important. This exploratory study illustrates how the human resource accounting model can contribute to an objective and systematic evaluation of a complex public policy issue. The study considers the attrition of commissioned officers from the U.S. Army as a loss of human resources and examines the relative investment in human resources from two primary sources of commissioning. This type of systematic analysis provides valuable information for the policy maker in making logical decisions on human resource development.     

Algorithmic market making for options

In this article, we tackle the problem of a market maker in charge of a book of options on a single liquid underlying asset. By using an approximation of the portfolio in terms of its vega, we show that the seemingly high-dimensional stochastic optimal control problem of an option market maker is in fact tractable. More precisely, when volatility is modeled using a classical stochastic volatility model—e.g. the Heston model—the problem faced by an option market maker is characterized by a low-dimensional functional equation that can be solved numerically using a Euler scheme along with interpolation techniques, even for large portfolios. In order to illustrate our findings, numerical examples are provided.     

创新内含碳中和目标的结构性货币政策

2020年9月,我国提出努力争取2060年前实现碳中和,宣示了向低碳经济转型的战略。在实现碳中和目标过程中,货币政策起着极其重要的金融稳定、风险防控、融资引导作用,也将在其间经历相应调整。本文归纳总结了目前国内外对结构性货币政策的理论探讨和政策实践,分析了构建与碳中和一致的结构性货币政策的必要性,提出在碳中和目标下货币政策应采取更为积极的立场主动促进经济低碳转型,走向包含碳中和目标的结构性货币政策。本文同时讨论了构建与碳中和一致的结构性货币政策框架面临的理论和政策挑战,并提出了相关政策建议。     

High‐risk Technology,Legitimacy and Science: The U.S. Search for Energy Policy Consensus

Since the 1980s, a growing body of social scientific research has focused on the organizational character of the institutions that are responsible for the management and functioning of high‐risk technological systems. While there are differences among the social theories of risks that have developed on both sides of the Atlantic, much of the work offers warnings that are relevant to public policy. The warnings have largely been ignored in recent U.S. policy decisions, as illustrated most clearly by the U.S. Energy Act of 2005, which largely overlooks important questions regarding the environmental and technological risks of the technologies favored by the Act. Sociological work suggests that the scientific systems that have been instrumental in the legitimization process of high‐risk technological options of energy, more broadly, should be examined in connection with the societal institutions having responsibility for transparency, safety, and environmental protection.