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1.
李明明  秦凤鸣 《金融研究》2016,436(10):16-31
本文采用19个欧元区国家1995至2014年的面板数据考察主权信用评级改变对于本国和其他国家经济增长率的影响以及这种影响在债务危机期间的异质性。实证结果发现,评级机构的主权升级会带来本国经济增长率的提升,主权降级会导致本国经济增长率的下降。在债务危机时期,主权降级对于本国经济增长率的降低作用更小。同时,一国的主权降级会传染到欧元区其他国家,带来其他国家经济增长率的下降,主权升级则没有表现出传染效应。在债务危机时期,主权降级的传染效应变弱。进一步地,对于主权评级水平更低和主权评级变动不频繁的国家而言,债务危机时期主权降级对于本国经济增长率影响力的下降程度更大。本研究对于认识国际评级机构在经济增长中的作用具有重要启示。  相似文献   

2.
徐璐  林昕 《时代金融》2012,(35):76+79
2008年全球金融危机以来,国际三大评级公司的评级行为及结论受到高度关注。在次贷危机中,信用评级机构对与次贷相关的衍生产品评级出现误判;对次贷风险未能及时作出反应,而后又反应过度。在欧洲主权债务危机中,美国三大评级机构一次次的对欧洲国家信用降级带来的是危机的逐步升级。信用评级机构究竟是在警示危机,还是在加剧危机?国际社会要求对信用评级机构加强监管的呼声正在不断高涨。  相似文献   

3.
2011年国际金融十件大事   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
1.欧洲主权债务危机持续发酵2011年3月份,希腊、西班牙、葡萄牙、爱尔兰等国的主权评级连遭降级,导致融资形势再度紧张,葡萄牙成为继希腊、爱尔兰之后第三个向欧盟申请救助的欧元区国家。之后,欧元区主权债务  相似文献   

4.
从2008年冰岛主权债务危机、迪拜主权债务危机的爆发,到之后频频发生的欧洲主权债务危机,全球债务危机愈演愈烈,大有一发不可收拾之势.今年8月5日,标准普尔更是给予了美国主权信用评级自1917年以来的首次降级,从AAA下调至AA+.同样,由于担心日本疲弱的经济增长前景使政府难以控制庞大的公共债务负担,8月24日,穆迪宣布将日本主权信用评级由Aa2下调至Aa3.世界两大经济体主权信用评级的下调将本轮主权债务危机推向了新的高潮.  相似文献   

5.
2009年12月,全球三大评级公司下调希腊主权信用评级,引发了希腊债务危机,并由此拉开了欧洲主权债务危机的序幕.先后卷入债务危机的欧洲国家包括希腊、意大利、西班牙、葡萄牙、爱尔兰等.时至今日,欧洲债务危机仍在进一步恶化.本文从三大财务报表阐述欧洲债务危机产生的原因,并进一步分析欧洲债务危机对中国企业的影响,最后从财务角度提出中国企业的应对措施  相似文献   

6.
进入2009年12月后.由于财政赤字不断恶化,越来越多的欧洲国家面临着主权信用危机——继希腊主权信用遭降级后。美国信用评级公司标准普尔又将西班牙主权信用评级前景从“稳定”下调至“负面”,并警告说西班牙将面临长期经济不景气。 至此,至少4个欧洲国家在最新一轮的主权信用危机中被点了名。更令人担心的是,摩根士丹利已预言。英国最早2010年就可能爆发财政危机。 主权债务的可持续性问题沉重笼罩着债券市场,威胁着经济及金融稳定的前景。  相似文献   

7.
欧洲主权债务危机愈演愈烈2009年12月全球三大评级公司下调希腊主权评级,希腊陷入财政危机。2010年2月23日,希腊债务危机扩散到银行系统,希腊四大银行评级遭到下调。随后,欧洲其他国家也开始陷入危机,比利时及欧元区内经济实力较强的西班牙、葡萄牙,都  相似文献   

8.
范瑾 《银行家》2012,(8):91-93
自2009年12月以来,全球三大评级公司——标普、穆迪和惠誉——分别下调希腊的主权债务评级,此后,欧洲多个国家也开始陷入危机。2012年1月以来,受欧洲主权债务危机的影响,法国、意大利、西班牙和葡萄牙等九国主权信用评级被下调。"欧猪五国"的信用评级相继被调低,进一步促成其国内经济下滑、债台高筑,甚至政府更迭。国际社会对欧元的信心减弱,德国等欧洲大国也开始感受到危机的影响,整个欧洲面临严峻的考验。欧盟对信用评级机构在希腊债务危机中扮演的角色十分不满,加  相似文献   

9.
<正>欧债危机已持续三年,形势未见好转,反而愈演愈烈,近期希腊组阁失败以及西班牙银行系统危机,使得欧洲再次成为是非焦点。一、危机背景2009年12月,全球三大信用评级机构下调希腊主权债务评级,希腊主权债务危机爆发。2010年7月国际评级机构穆迪下调葡萄牙主权信用评级,欧债危机开始向欧元区其他国家蔓延。2010年12月,穆迪大幅下调爱尔兰主权信用评级。2011年3月穆迪下调了西班牙的主权信用评级,欧债危机开始从欧元区外围国家向核心国家进一步蔓延。2011年9月,标准普尔公司将欧元  相似文献   

10.
席卷全球的金融危机引起了金融体系的动荡,金融危机中政府替代民间企业和金融机构承担风险的结果是政府借债增加,特别是希腊主权债务危机爆发后,主权债务风险引起了国际市场的极大关注。2010年初日本主权信用评级也遭遇降级,日本政府债务风险也进  相似文献   

11.
The evidence here indicates that sovereign debt rating and credit outlook changes of one country have an asymmetric and economically significant effect on the stock market returns of other countries over 1989–2003. There is a negative reaction of 51 basis points (two-day return spread vis-á-vis the US) to a credit ratings downgrade of one notch in a common information spillover around the world. Upgrades, however, have no significant impact on return spreads of countries abroad. Closeness (e.g., geographic proximity) and emerging market status amplify the effect of a spillover. Downgrade spillover effects at the industry level are more pronounced in traded goods and small industries.  相似文献   

12.
We study the effect of the sovereign credit ratings on the economies of seven East Asian countries, applying panel vector autoregression (VAR). We find that rating has less effect than outlook of rating on the credit default swap (CDS) spreads, the stock indexes, and the GDP growth rates. Rating upgrade and positive outlook have stronger effects than rating downgrade and negative outlook, and the effects of positive outlook and rating are greater after the financial crisis. There is evidence of contagion in that the economic variables of a country seem to have been affected by the outlooks of the other countries.  相似文献   

13.
The severity and complexity of the recent financial crisis has motivated the need for understanding the relationships between sovereign ratings and bank credit ratings. This is the first study to examine the impact of the “international” spillover of sovereign risk to bank credit risk through both a ratings channel and an asset holdings channel. In the first case, the downgrade of sovereign ratings in GIIPS (Greece, Italy, Ireland, Portugal, and Spain) countries leads to rating downgrades of banks in the peripheral countries. The second channel indicates that larger asset holdings of GIIPS debt increases the credit risk of cross‐border banks, and hence, the probabilities of downgrade.  相似文献   

14.
We study the firm-specific and intra-industry stock market effects of issuer credit rating changes and negative watch list placements for the G7 countries. We show that both the information content and the information transfer effects of these rating signals differ considerably in terms of magnitude and in terms of direction across the G7 countries. In particular, conditional on the type of rating change we find significant contagion effects for the US, the UK and Italy, but not for the other G7 countries. Moreover, we show that in some countries abnormal industry portfolio returns associated with rating downgrades and negative watch list signals tend to be more negative for more concentrated and more heavily levered industries. Overall, our results shed new light on country-specific differences in the relevance of credit ratings as risk indicators from an equity investor's perspective, and they may also be of interest to both risk managers and financial market supervisors striving to develop more accurate credit risk models and to better assess the systemic relevance of credit ratings.  相似文献   

15.
We show that sovereign debt impairments can have a significant effect on financial markets and real economies through a credit ratings channel. Specifically, we find that firms reduce their investment and reliance on credit markets due to a rising cost of debt capital following a sovereign rating downgrade. We identify these effects by exploiting exogenous variation in corporate ratings due to rating agencies' sovereign ceiling policies, which require that firms' ratings remain at or below the sovereign rating of their country of domicile.  相似文献   

16.
Extant literature provides conflicting results with respect to the usefulness and accuracy of analysts' operating cash flow forecasts. Our study empirically examines the importance and influence of meeting or beating analysts' operating cash flow forecasts on a firm's cost of debt. Results indicate that firms meeting/beating analysts' cash flow forecasts have higher initial bond ratings as well as lower initial bond yields. Additionally, based upon an analysis of rating changes, firms meeting or beating cash flow forecasts have a higher probability of receiving a debt rating upgrade and a lower probability of a ratings downgrade compared to firms missing cash flow forecasts. A direct comparison of the importance of meeting/beating cash flow versus earnings benchmarks indicates that debt market participants appear to incrementally value both types of forecasts, and contrary to selected equity market findings, neither forecast subsumes the other for debt market participants.  相似文献   

17.
Firm circumstances change but rating agencies may not make timely revisions to their ratings, thereby increasing information asymmetry between firms and the market. We examine whether firms time the securities market before a credit rating agency publicly reveals its decision to change a firm’s credit rating. Using quarterly data, we show that firms adjust their financing structures before credit rating downgrades are publicly revealed. Specifically, firms on average increase their debt financing by 1.29 % before the disclosure of a rating downgrade, and this increase is due to the issuance of debt rather than the repurchase of equity. In contrast, firms do not take significant financing actions before credit rating upgrades.  相似文献   

18.
We investigate the rating channel for the transmission of changes in sovereign risk to the banking sector, analysing data from Moody's, S&P and Fitch before and during the European debt crisis. Sovereign rating downgrades and negative watch signals have strong effects on bank rating downgrades in the crisis period. The impact is stronger for multiple-notch sovereign rating downgrades, and more pronounced in PIIGS countries. Secondly, we investigate rating agencies' competition in the banking sector during the same periods, finding significant differences in rating policies across the agencies. S&P credit actions tend to be the more independent ones, while Moody's appears to be more cautious, although it is by far the most likely to assign multiple-notch downgrades. In the pre-crisis period, we find no evidence that bank rating actions are linked to sovereign rating signals (nor vice versa) nor to prior bank rating changes by a competing agency.  相似文献   

19.
We study the effect of a sovereign credit rating change of one country on the sovereign credit spreads of other countries from 1991 to 2000. We find evidence of spillover effects; that is, a ratings change in one country has a significant effect on sovereign credit spreads of other countries. This effect is asymmetric: positive ratings events abroad have no discernable impact on sovereign spreads, whereas negative ratings events are associated with an increase in spreads. On average, a one-notch downgrade of a sovereign bond is associated with a 12 basis point increase in spreads of sovereign bonds of other countries. The magnitude of the spillover effect following a negative ratings change is amplified by recent ratings changes in other countries. We distinguish between common information and differential components of spillovers. While common information spillovers imply that sovereign spreads move in tandem, differential spillovers are expected to result in opposite effects of ratings events across countries. Despite the predominance of common information spillovers, we also find evidence of differential spillovers among countries with highly negatively correlated capital flows or trade flows vis-á-vis the United States. That is, spreads in these countries generally fall in response to a downgrade of a country with highly negatively correlated capital or trade flows. Variables proxying for cultural or institutional linkages (e.g., common language, formal trade blocs, common law legal systems), physical proximity, and rule of law traditions across countries do not seem to affect estimated spillover effects.  相似文献   

20.
Firms placed on negative credit watch face the threat of a credit rating downgrade. At the same time, they are given the opportunity to put recovery efforts in place to retain their current credit rating. In this paper, we test to what extent firms use earnings management as a short-term recovery strategy. We find that both accruals-based and real earnings management are associated with firms avoiding credit rating downgrades, and that these alternative earnings management strategies tend to be complements rather than substitutes. However, following the passage of the Sarbanes–Oxley Act, only real earnings management is significantly associated with the credit watch outcome. We find evidence that firms which maintain their rating via earnings management are better able to afford the inevitable earnings reversals, and that in the year following the credit watch period, the credit rating performance of these firms is significantly better than firms which undergo a downgrade, with fewer downgrades and more upgrades in this period. Our results also imply that credit rating agencies are not misled by earnings management but rather allow for some discretion in reporting earnings that facilitates the dissemination of private information about future firm performance.  相似文献   

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