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1.
本文从天气指数保险及衍生品创新的本质和内涵出发,通过三组比较来进行分析。首先是进行天气指数保险和传统保险的比较,进而了解天气指数保险在理赔流程上的变化以及从风险导因出发的风险管控形式;其次是天气指数保险和天气指数衍生品之间的比较,了解这两种天气指数保险创新形式的内在联系与实质区别,提出天气指数衍生品就是天气指数保险在资本市场的应用延伸;最后通过天气指数衍生品和传统金融衍生品的比较,得出两者并非替代关系而是互补关系,提出需要推出天气指数衍生产品进行有效的风险管理。  相似文献   

2.
我国非灾害性天气风险与天气衍生品的应用   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
近年来全球变暖引发气候和天气变化十分频繁,导致非灾害性天气带来的经济风险急剧加大。非灾害性天气风险对我国各行各业都有着较为显著的经济影响,新生的金融工具天气衍生品能够有效的管理非灾害性天气风险。  相似文献   

3.
农业自然风险的金融管理:天气衍生品的兴起   总被引:4,自引:0,他引:4  
天气衍生品是农业保险创新的产物,它将金融工具的理念用于自然灾害的风险管理,为农业生产者的风险转移提供了新途径。天气衍生品的推出可以增强保险公司和再保险公司分散风险的能力,有助于提高农业自然风险的管理水平。本文介绍了全球天气衍生品发展的产品与市场状况,并提出了相关的政策建议。  相似文献   

4.
本文通过对天气衍生品的产生过程和天气衍生品管理天气风险的作用的分析和研究,探讨了我国在深化经济体制过程中推出天气衍生品的必要性,认为我国应适时推出天气期货,并提出了我国的月度HDD/CDD期货合约.  相似文献   

5.
随着气候异常变化频率的增加以及极端天气事件的频繁发生,天气风险对农业的影响尤其严重,天气风险管理成为了关注的热点.天气衍生品作为国外进行天气风险管理和转移的金融创新工具,为应对天气风险提供了重要的途径,定价问题则是天气衍生品研究中的核心问题.本文使用武汉市1990.1.1-2009.12.31的每日气温数据,采用了基于ARMA的时间序列模型分析了武汉市气温动态变化的过程,对模型进行了估计、检验了模型的预测准确度,结果表明:ARMA模型具有较好的拟合优度,能以此为基础对气温期权等天气衍生产品进行合理定价.基于以上分析,本文提出应提供有利的技术环境、政策环境和制度环境以推进农业天气衍生品开发与市场发展的政策建议.  相似文献   

6.
天气敏感性分析与气候衍生品开发   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
针对全球气候异常变化及其形成的天气风险,2008年8月美国的Weatherbill公司对全球68个国家和地区的国民经济对气候偏差的敏感性进行了量化分析.研究报告称,中国是一个对天气变化具有很大敏感性的国家.上海国际金融中心建设的核心任务是要不断拓展金融市场的深度和广度,形成比较发达的多功能、多层次的金融市场体系.在这个体系中,气候衍生品市场应成为一个有机组成部分.  相似文献   

7.
天气风险管理及其最新研究进展   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
天气风险管理是为了规避天气风险对气候敏感行业带来收入的不稳定性而兴起的创新型风险管理工具。不同于传统金融工具,天气风险的定价取决于温度、湿度或降雨量等天气指数。本文从天气风险内涵和市场交易结构出发,系统研究了其定价机制及最新的研究进展,总结和归纳了最优天气风险管理策略。  相似文献   

8.
论天气衍生产品与农业风险管理   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
我国农业面临严重的天气风险,现有的控制和分散农业天气风险的机制和措施由于自身缺陷不能有效发挥作用.天气衍生产品市场在分散和转移农业天气风险方面具有优势,我国应积极探索和发展农业天气衍生产品市场,可以率先发展生长温值(GDD)指数期货市场,待市场成熟以后再逐步推出其他衍生产品.  相似文献   

9.
变幻莫测的灾害性天气给世界各国经济、社会带来了严重的损失,作为一种有效的天气风险管理工具——天气衍生产品逐渐得到越来越多的关注。文章从天气风险的基本概念开始,从天气衍生产品产生的背景出发,简单介绍天气衍生产品市场的现状及发展,并对我国天气衍生产品的发展进行展望分析。  相似文献   

10.
美国天气衍生金融工具模型及其应用   总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2  
天气衍生工具作为一种特殊的风险管理工具,可以被广泛地用来规避反常的天气风险。作为一种金融工具,天气衍生工具的价值取决于诸如温度、湿度或降雨量等天气指数变量。  相似文献   

11.
气候变化与天气衍生产品创新   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
由于气候变化会加大天气的波动性,企业需要运用天气衍生产品来对冲天气影响的风险以稳定利润。天气衍生产品是一类特殊的金融衍生产品,具有自身特定的构成要素、标的变量、支付函数和定价方法。随着气候变化的影响逐步加大,天气衍生产品具有广阔的发展空间。  相似文献   

12.
Abstract

This paper adopts an incomplete market pricing model–the indifference pricing approach–to analyze valuation of weather derivatives and the viability of the weather derivatives market in a hedging context. It incorporates price risk, weather/quantity risk, and other risks in the financial market. In a mean-variance framework, the relationship between the actuarial price and the indifference price of weather derivatives is analyzed, and conditions are obtained concerning when the actuarial price does not provide an appropriate valuation for weather derivatives. Conditions for the viability of the weather derivatives market are examined. This paper also analyzes the effects of partial hedging, natural hedges, basis risk, quantity risk, and price risk on investors’ indifference prices by examining the distributional impacts of the stochastic variables involved.  相似文献   

13.
Weather derivatives are a relatively recent kind of financial product developed to manage weather risks, and currently the weather derivatives market is the fastest-growing derivative market. The development of weather derivatives represents one of the recent trends toward the convergence of insurance and finance. This article presents an overview of weather risks, weather derivatives, and the weather derivatives market, and examines the valuation of weather derivatives in an incomplete market, the hedging effectiveness of standardized weather derivatives, as well as optimal weather hedging with the consideration of basis risk and credit risk.  相似文献   

14.
This article analyses weather risk hedging efficiency in three European countries using weather derivatives traded at Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) and explores the potential of weather derivatives as a new investment asset to further diversify investors’ portfolios. The results document that the CME European weather contracts are generally effective in hedging the temperature risk in the three European countries. However, for a specific country, weather risk hedging using other countries’ weather indexes is generally not effective. Zero or little correlation among international weather indexes and stock market indexes indicates that weather derivatives should be an efficient investment diversifier. This research provides important insights to both weather risk hedgers and investors.  相似文献   

15.
We consider pricing weather derivatives for use as protection against weather extremes by using max-stable processes to estimate risk measures. These derivatives are not currently traded on any open markets, but their use could help some institutions manage weather risks from extreme events. The central challenge is to model the dependence of payments, which increases the risk of holding multiple weather derivatives. The method described utilizes results from spatial statistics and extreme value theory to first model extremes in the weather as a max-stable process, and then simulate payments for a general collection of weather derivatives. As the joint likelihood function for max-stable processes is unavailable, we use two approaches: The first is based on the composite likelihood, and the second is based on approximate Bayesian computing (ABC). Both capture the spatial dependence of payments. To incorporate parameter uncertainty into the pricing model, we use bootstrapping with the composite likelihood approach, while the ABC method naturally incorporates parameter uncertainty. We show that the additional risk from the spatial dependence of payments can be quite substantial, and that the methods discussed can compute standard actuarial risk measures in both a frequentist and Bayesian setting.  相似文献   

16.
We present four models for predicting temperatures that can be used for pricing weather derivatives. Three of the models have been suggested in previous literature, and we propose another model that uses splines to remove trend and seasonality effects from temperature time series in a flexible way. Using historical temperature data from 35 weather stations across the United States, we test the performance of the models by evaluating virtual heating degree days (HDD) and cooling degree days (CDD) contracts. We find that all models perform better when predicting HDD indices than predicting CDD indices. However, all models based on a daily simulation approach significantly underestimate the variance of the errors.  相似文献   

17.
In this paper, we propose pricing temperature derivatives using a filtered historical simulation (FHS) approach that amalgamates model-based treatment of volatility and empirical innovation density. The FHS approach implicitly captures the risk premium with the entire risk-neutral model (except the innovation distribution), thereby providing significantly more flexibility than existing methods that use only one designated parameter to capture the risk premium. Additionally, instead of relying on the fitted innovation distribution, the FHS approach uses empirical innovations to capture excess skewness, excess kurtosis, and other non-standard features in the temperature data, all of which are important for the correct pricing of temperature derivatives. We apply the FHS approach to pricing derivatives written on the temperature of Chicago, and demonstrate that this approach yields better in-sample and out-of-sample pricing performance than the constant market price of risk method and the consumption-based method.  相似文献   

18.
This paper proposes a consistent approach to the pricing of weather derivatives. Since weather derivatives are traded in an incomplete market setting, standard hedging based pricing methods cannot be applied. The growth optimal portfolio, which is interpreted as a world stock index, is used as a benchmark or numeraire such that all benchmarked derivative price processes are martingales. No measure transformation is needed for the proposed fair pricing. For weather derivative payoffs that are independent of the value of the growth optimal portfolio, it is shown that the classical actuarial pricing methodology is a particular case of the fair pricing concept. A discrete time model is constructed to approximate historical weather characteristics. The fair prices of some particular weather derivatives are derived using historical and Gaussian residuals. The question of weather risk as diversifiable risk is also discussed. 1991 Mathematics Subject Classification: primary 90A12; secondary 60G30; 62P20 JEL Classification: C16, G10, G13  相似文献   

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