中远期大宗农产品交易规则的缺陷剖析

中远期大宗农产品电子交易制度能够发挥便利交易、发现价格和引导订单农业等先进功能,但是在实际运作过程中,由于交易制度设计缺陷和监管缺失,演绎为变相的期货交易模式,实物交割率非常低。在多空双方博弈下,大宗产品价格不再由供求关系决定,反而由投机决定背离了市场服务大宗农产品交易的设立初衷。本文以某花生电子交易市场为例,在交易制度设计层面进行剖析,为中远期市场建设提供一些改进思路。     

芝加哥商业交易所农产品大宗交易情况及其作用分析

大宗交易会不会对市场的流动性以及价格透明度等造成影响,是市场监管者和参与者比较关心的问题。2018年1月,芝加哥商业交易所(CME)将农产品大宗交易扩大到全部农产品期货和期权合约。美国商品期货交易委员会市场监督司通过对放开后4个月CME市场218笔农产品大宗交易的分析,认定大宗交易仅占期货、期权交易的很小部分,且大宗交易主要发生在近月合约,未发现违反CME规则中"以公平合理价格成交"的交易。在我国目前"金融服务实体经济"的趋势下,大宗交易可能为期货市场服务产业经济提供新的途径。     

论对变相期货交易的法律规制

在我国期货市场建设和期货交易的发展进程中,变相期货交易几乎是如影随形,却始终没能得到有效遏制,在地方、行业或其他利益的推动下,借助现货批发市场、大宗商品交易市场、电子商务等不同交易形式、手段或载体,变相期货交易不断地发展、变化。由于缺乏有效监管和某种程度上的不作为,涉及变相期货交易的恶性事件屡屡发生,从海南橡胶中心批发市场、     

大宗农畜产品电子交易市场何处何从:综述与展望

大宗农产品电子交易市场作为一种新型的现货交易模式,近年来发展迅速已经成为了我国多层次的资本市场商品体系不可或缺的部分,但由于市场界定"错位"、法律法规"缺位"、市场监管"失位"导致市场混乱无序,面临生存危机。本文献综述围绕大宗农产品电子交易市场内涵、市场功能、现期发展障碍、市场管制及政策研究、国际电子交易市场构建经验等角度进行综述,最后对大宗农产品电子市场发展提出研究展望。     

论大宗商品电子交易制度风险的法律规制——华夏商品现货交易所诈骗事件的启示

长期以来,法律规范的缺位放大了大宗商品电子交易的制度风险,琼胶事件和华夏事件是其典型案例。尽管如此,必须承认大宗商品电子交易是多层次交易市场不可缺少的组成部分,与期货交易在本质属性、交易主体、交易客体、交易目的、交易场所、交易方式等方面有着经济和法律意义上的明显区别。除非涉及市场的本质性特征,否则任何具体的交易技术和手段都没有必要也不应该对大宗商品电子交易禁用。应该在多层次商品交易市场的认识框架下,针对大宗商品电子交易建立以行政法规药先导的强制性法律规范,明确监管主体,为其长远发展提供规范而广阔的制度空间。     

对我国发展金融期货市场的几点思考

<正> 目前,随着我国金融市场的发展和市场运行过程中风险的增大.金融期货开始在我国许多地方相继推出.且有蓬勃发展之势,但在期货急剧升温的同时.有些问题在认识上还较模糊甚至不正确.有必要进行探讨澄清。一、期货交易不等于是远期交易有人把期货交易视同远期交易.其实不然。我们知道期货交易是现货交易的对称.它是通过有形的交易场所进行标准化合约的买卖,一般不以实物交易为目的。而远期交易属现货交易的一种,它是买卖双方约定在将来某一时间的某种商品协议交易。虽然二者都是预约买卖,都有转移市场风险之功能.但从本质上看二者有很大的区别:     

“华交所变局”启示录

喻猛国告诉记者,层出不穷的变相期货案说明了以下几个问题:一是我国期货交易品种太少,二是现货仓单交易从立法到监管都亟待规范。屡次操控非法交易所的华夏商品现货交易所负责人郭远峰最终卷款1.7亿元出走美国,得以全身而退。郭远峰的从容出走使这个在网络上被称     

大宗商品电子交易市场何去何从

我国大宗商品电子交易市场始于1997年,经当时国内贸易部（现商务部）批准．国家经贸委等八部委进行联合论证成立的一种新型现货交易模式．即通过网络与电子商务搭建的平台,对相应物品进行即期现货或中远期订货交易的市场。目前,此类市场的管理规范和法律依据主要是2003年7月出台的《大宗商品电子交易规范》和2004年8月人大常委会通过的《电子签名法》。2005年1月8日,国务院办公厅发布的《关于加快电子商务发展的若干意见》,对促进这类市场的发展也发挥了一定的作用。     

期货业会计中买卖交易的核算方法

期货业会计中买卖交易的核算方法云南锡业公司上海金属期货交易部汪振华期货交易，是买卖商品远期交货合同的交易，是市场经济发展到较高阶段出现的一种交易形式。我国，随着改革开放的深化和社会主义市场经济模式的确立，期货市场也成为继证券市场、房地产市场之后的又一...     

开启“银商合作”新模式

随着大宗商品交易平台的蓬勃发展,商业银行将会迎来更多的业务机遇,"银商合作"市场潜力巨大。随着经济的快速发展,境内以能源、金属及农产品为代表的大宗商品交易活动日渐活跃,贸易规模快速扩张,大宗商品现货交易呈现出集中化、平台化特点,交易模式日益成熟。部分商业银行抓住这一业务机遇,通过与大宗商品交易平台开展业务合作,为交易商提供结算、融资等方面的金融服务,开启了"银商合作"新模式。     

The role of speculation in international futures markets on commodity prices

The role of futures contracts on spot prices has been one of the key focus areas of research since the recent surge in commodity prices and increase in the volatility of commodity returns. However, no consensus arises from this literature, and hence it is difficult to link the use of futures contracts in agricultural commodities by non-hedgers and the growing food insecurity within developing countries. The purpose of this paper is to highlight causal relationships from futures contracts to spot prices of underlying assets, namely agricultural commodities. As research that focus on exchange-traded funds do not provide any clear conclusions, we focus on the imbalance between short- and long-open positions, this imbalance being caused by the exchange traded funds’ participation in futures markets. In this paper, we estimate relationships between financial variables including indicators for speculation in futures markets and the returns of cocoa, corn, soybean, wheat, coffee, rice, and sugar on a weekly basis from 1998 to 2013. Significant results lead to Granger-causality tests that in turn validate the hypothesis of a positive impact of speculation in futures markets to returns on the underlying commodities.     

An analysis of time-varying commodity market price discovery

We propose a model of time-varying price discovery based on a rolling-window error correction framework. We show that price discovery in nine commodities is dominated by the spot market, while, in only six commodities, price discovery is dominated by the futures market. Our findings, therefore, challenge the well-established view in commodity markets that it is the futures market which dominates the price discovery process. We also show the economic significance of price discovery through a portfolio construction and hedging strategy.     

The role of gold futures in mitigating the impact of economic uncertainty on spot prices: Evidence from China

This paper studies the co-integration relationship and volatility spillover effect between China's gold futures and spot prices through the VECM-BEKK-GARCH model. Then, MSGARCH and DCCE-GARCH are applied to study the relationship among China's gold futures market, spot market price volatility and the stabilization effect in uncertain economic environments. This paper enriches the current research, providing gold market participants with hints to address economic uncertainty. The empirical results show that China's gold futures market has a weak stabilization effect on spot price volatility. In scenarios with uncertain economic information and uncertain macroeconomic changes, the correlation between gold futures and spot price volatility is reduced in China, and the role of gold futures in stabilizing the spot price weakens. Furthermore, with economic uncertainty, the fluctuation range of the gold futures price is greater than that of the spot price, with a tendency of more frequent fluctuations. This also means that the effectiveness of the futures market in regulating the spot price will be reduced, and gold market regulators need to stabilize the market through alternative methods to futures.     

Price dynamics in refined petroleum spot and futures markets

This article characterizes the spot and futures price dynamics of two important physical commodities, gasoline and heating oil. Using a non-linear error correction model with time-varying volatility, we demonstrate many new results. Specifically, the convergence of spot and futures prices is asymmetric, non-linear, and volatility inducing. Moreover, spreads between spot and futures prices explain virtually all spot return volatility innovations for these two commodities, and spot returns are more volatile when spot prices exceed futures prices than when the reverse is true. Furthermore, there are volatility spillovers from futures to spot markets (but not the reverse), futures volatility shocks are more persistent than spot volatility shocks, and the convergence of spot and futures prices is asymmetric and non-linear. These results have important implications. In particular, since the theory of storage implies that spreasd vary with fundamental supply and demand factors, the strong relation between spreads and volatility suggests that these fundamentals — rather than trading induced noise — are the primary determinants of spot price volatility. The volatility spillovers, differences in volatility persistence, and lead-lag relations are consistent with the view that the futures market is the primary locus of informed trading in refined petroleum product markets. Finally, our finding that error correction processes may be non-linear, asymmetric, and volatility inducing suggests that traditional approaches to the study of time series dynamics of variables that follow a common stochastic trend that ignore these complexities may be mis-specified.     

The equilibrium price of futures contracts: A result drawn from capital asset pricing model

A recent study shows that separation theorems in the stock and forward market literatures may not hold in an integrated financial market; therefore, the securities market may influence futures trading. This article investigates the securities market influence on the futures price. The result shows that although the futures price incorporates the investor's expectation about the future spot price, it generally is not a best estimate of the spot price. In addition, it is shown that the speculative activity can destabilize the cash market for some commodities, if initially, the underlying cash price is highly volatile.     

世界黄金期货市场、工具与法规政策环境的比较分析

本文比较了世界主要黄金期货市场、投资工具与各国黄金市场法规政策环境,分析了不同的市场条件、法规政策环境对本国黄金期货市场发展产生的影响,探讨了成为国际性黄金期货市场应具备的基本要素:现货市场发展程度、市场规模、现货商影响力对黄金衍生工具的发展产生重要影响;外汇管制政策和进出口政策对确定本国黄金期货市场是国际性市场还是区域性市场起到关键性作用;黄金市场流通、增值税、监管政策对确定本国各类黄金市场交易的活跃度产生关键性作用。     

Mean Reversion in Equilibrium Asset Prices: Evidence from the Futures Term Structure

We use the term structure of futures prices to test whether investors anticipate mean reversion in spot asset prices. The empirical results indicate mean reversion in each market we examine. For agricultural commodities and crude oil the magnitude of the estimated mean reversion is large; for example, point estimates indicate that 44 percent of a typical spot oil price shock is expected to be reversed over the subsequent eight months. For metals, the degree of mean reversion is substantially less, but still statistically significant. We detect only weak evidence of mean reversion in financial asset prices.     

Dissecting hedge funds' strategies

This paper dissects the dynamics of the hedge fund industry with four financial markets, including the equity market, commodities, currencies, and debt market by employing a large number of assets from these markets. We employ four main representative hedge fund strategy indices, and a cap-weighted global index to estimate an asymmetric dynamic conditional correlation (ADCC) GJR-GARCH model using daily data from April 2003 to May 2021. We break down the performance, riskiness, investing style, volatility, dynamic correlations, and shock transmissions of each hedge fund strategy thoroughly. Further, the impact of commodity futures basis on hedge funds' return is analyzed. Comparing the dynamic correlations during the 2008 global financial crisis (GFC) with COVID-19 pandemic reveals changing patterns in hedge funds' investing styles. There are strong and pervasive shock spillovers from hedge fund industry to other financial markets, especially to futures commodities. An increase in the futures basis of several commodities drives up hedge funds' performance. While hedge fund industry underperforms compared to equity market and commodities, the risk-reward measures show that hedge funds are superior to other markets, and safer than the bond market.     

信息传导与市场整合——基于商品期货上市的准自然实验

从制度设计上打破市场分割、促进市场整合,对提高市场效率、促进经济有序健康发展具有重要意义。本文以商品期货上市作为准自然实验,构建双重差分模型,实证检验了商品期货上市交易对现货商品市场价格整合的影响。研究发现,现货商品市场价格整合程度在相应商品期货上市后显著提升,这是因为商品期货上市显著地促进了价格信息在全国范围内的传导,且这种提升效应主要体现在价格信息传导比较顺畅的地区。此外,商品期货上市提高了现货商品市场价格同步性,缓解了现货商品价格信息滞后程度,降低了现货商品交易成本。进一步研究发现,商品期货市场的交易信息质量越高,越有利于提高现货商品市场的整合程度。本研究为当前我国建设全国统一大市场提供了一定参考。     

Analysis of DJIA,S&P 500, S&P 400, NASDAQ 100 and Russell 2000 ETFs and their influence on price discovery

This study examines the temporal behavior of price discovery in the spot, ETF and futures markets of the DJIA, S&P 500, S&P 400, NASDAQ 100 and Russell 2000. We document an increasing trend in the price discovery metrics of exchange traded funds for all indexes but the DJIA. Contrary to past studies, our findings show that the spot market rather than the futures market leads the price discovery. The arbitrage process that links exchange traded funds to spot prices, and not the futures prices might explain the results. This daily arbitrage that ensures exchange traded funds prices equal net asset values appear to promote spot market price discovery especially with the popularity of exchange traded funds in more recent years. We additionally document that the temporal behavior of the exchange traded funds price discovery metric affects differently price discovery in the spot and futures markets across indexes.