Tests of Weak‐Form Efficiency of the Dhaka Stock Exchange

Abstract:   Conflicting evidence on weak form efficiency of the Dhaka Stock Market appears to stem from the use of monthly versus daily data, structural changes after the 1996 market crash, and the use of tests with or without heteroscedasticity adjustment. Heteroscedasticity‐robust tests indicate short‐term predictability of share prices prior to the crash, but not afterwards. Although a heteroscedasticity‐robust Box‐Pierce test was used by Lo and MacKinlay (1989) in their simulations, our study appears to be the first to apply this test to stock prices. Typical rejection of weak‐form market efficiency by the usual autocorrelation tests may be reversed by a heteroscedasticity‐robust test.     

An Investigation of the Impact of Interest Rates and Interest Rate Volatility on Australian Financial Sector Stock Return Distributions

Abstract:   This paper extends the existing literature by analysing the dual impact of changes in the interest rate and interest rate volatility on the distribution of Australian financial sector stock returns. In addition, a multivariate GARCH‐M model is used to analyse the impact of deregulation on the financial institutions sector. It was found that there is a consistent inter‐temporal trade off between risk and return over the different regulatory periods. Moreover, finance corporations were found to be highly sensitive to new shocks across the financial sector and deregulation increased the risk faced by finance corporations and small banks – effectively increasing the required rate of return and explaining the continued rationalisation of these sectors. Furthermore, deregulation has changed the fundamental relationship between interest rates and large bank stock excess returns from positive in the pre‐deregulation period to negative in the post‐deregulation period. This reflects the changing institutional environment from one of controlled credit rationing to a more competitive environment.     

The Real Options Component of Firm Market Value: The Case of the Technological Corporation

Abstract:   This paper tests whether stock prices reflect investor's expectations regarding the value of real options. The analysis is implemented based on a sample of 391 high‐tech companies listed on main OECD stock markets during the period December 1994 through December 2000. Results confirm the predicted relation between the fraction of a firm's market value not accounted for by its assets‐in‐place, and a series of variables that are assumed to disclose its real options value, variables such as research and development activity, risk and skewness of stock returns, and size. The results are robust even after controlling for valuation date, sub‐industry, country, and alternative measures of risk.     

How does Monetary Policy Influence Capital Markets? Using a Threshold Regression Model

This study indicates that the effects of interest rate changes on stock prices could be twofold and that the net effect is determined by which effect is dominant. The study employs a threshold regression model to see if, before and after the central banks cut the interest rates, there is a nonlinear relation between interest rates and the stock index. Based on traditional economic theory, stock prices should be inversely related to interest rates. However, the present study finds that as interest rates start to increase or decrease, the stock index prices are significantly and positively related to the interest rates. The changes in interest rates affect stock indexes inversely only after interest rates have crossed a certain threshold. The inverse U-shaped relationship between interest rates and stock indexes differs from the traditional wisdom. It could make interest rates more valuable in forecasting stock indexes, and it holds implications for monetary policies of central banks. To avoid the spurious regression problem, this study uses a cointegration test and an error correction model to confirm the results from the threshold regression model and finds that there is a significant cointegration relationship before and after central banks cut interest rates.     

Signalling and the Long‐run Performance of Spanish Initial Public Offerings (IPOs)

Abstract:   Academic research into firms that have gone public has focused on the study of two anomalies: initial underpricing and long‐run underperformance. We analyse Spanish Initial Public Offerings to provide additional evidence on the long‐run performance of IPOs and its relationship with initial underpricing. Results reveal the existence of negative long‐run abnormal stock returns, in line with the international literature. Long‐run performance presents a positive relationship with underpricing and the volume of funds obtained in seasoned offerings, in consonance with the predictions of Allen and Faulhaber (1989) , Welch (1989) and Grinblatt and Hwang (1989) .     

Bank Relationship and Firm Performance: Evidence From Thailand Before the Asian Financial Crisis

Abstract:   This study examines the relation between bank relations and market performance in Thailand, an economy in which commercial banks play a crucial role through lending relationship and, for a number of companies, equity ownership. Overall, bank relationships, both equity‐based and debt‐based, positively affect capital investment. However, there is a negative relation between lending relationships, both short‐term and long‐term, and market performance indicating that bank lending may not always be consistent with value maximization. There is also evidence of a positive marginal effect of bank monitoring through equity ownership on market performance. Further, the relation between bank equity ownership and market performance appears to be non‐linear with a concave function. Ownership by corporate insiders is also negatively related to bank equity ownership. Overall, the findings highlight the detrimental effects of excessive short‐term debt usage, one of the factors believed to contribute to the financial crisis in Thailand, and the marginal benefit of the equity‐based relationship on firm value.     

Operating Performance and Stock Returns of Firms Calling Convertible Preferred Stocks

Abstract:   Using methodologies developed by Barber and Lyon (1996 and 1997 ), we examine the long‐run operating performance and stock returns of firms around in‐the‐money calls of convertible preferred stock. Our study intends to be a direct test of the hypothesis that managers call in‐the‐money convertibles when they view a decline in the firms' performance. We find no evidence that calling firms underperform non‐calling benchmark firms. On the contrary, we find mild evidence that the post‐call operating performance of calling firms is better than a carefully selected group of benchmark firms and call firms' post‐call stock returns are no worse than benchmark firms.     

CEO Stock Options and Equity Risk Incentives

Abstract:   We test the hypothesis that the risk incentive effects of CEO stock option grants motivate managers to take on more risk than they would otherwise. Using a sample of mergers we document that the ratio of post‐ to pre‐merger stock return variance is positively related to the risk incentive effect of CEO stock option compensation but this relationship is conditioned on firm size, with firm size having a moderating effect on the risk incentive effect of stock options. Using a broader time‐series cross‐sectional sample of firms we find a strong positive relationship between CEO risk incentive embedded in the stock options and subsequent equity return volatility. As in the case of the merger sample, this relationship is stronger for smaller firms.     

A New Application of Sustainable Growth: A Multi‐Dimensional Framework for Evaluating the Long Run Performance of Bank Mergers

Abstract:   We study the mergers of US publicly traded bank holding companies during 1987–2000 and find that the acquiring firm's sustainable growth rate is an important determinant of the cross‐sectional variation in the merged entity's long‐term operating and stock performance. The most economically significant determinants of the merged bank's abnormal stock return performance are the acquiring bank's estimated sustainable growth rate prior to the acquisition, as well as post‐acquisition changes in this growth rate, and the bank's dividend payout ratio. Our findings are robust even after controlling for several potentially confounding factors.     

Financial Modernization in US Banking Markets: A Local or Global Event?

Abstract:   We test the hypothesis that the passage of the Financial Services Modernization Act (FSMA) of 1999 has spillover effects cross‐nationally, using a sample of US, non‐US transactional (Australian, Canadian, and UK), and relationship (German, Japanese, Dutch, and Swiss) banks. Our results suggest that financial modernization in the US has limited cross‐national effects. We find strong evidence that US banks were affected favorably. Although we detect some evidence of significant reactions by banks in certain countries, a closer examination reveals that the reaction is most likely attributable to events in the respective countries during the event period. We do find, however, that non‐US transactional banks have been more likely to elect financial holding company status compared to relationship banks, suggesting they are positioning themselves to exploit the expanded opportunity set created by the FSMA. Nonetheless, the majority of elections have been made by US banks. In general, the results suggest that the respective banking markets are efficient in filtering events that are largely country‐specific with only limited implications for other international banks.