Scenario development for corporate planning

The term “scenario” is familiar to those involved in forecasting, but too few people are aware of what exactly a scenario is, or how it can best be developed and applied. The author describes a method developed over several years in response to a need which most forecasting efforts have left unfulfilled. The method enables quantitative and qualitative forecasts to be combined in a manner which can be directly related to an organisation's planning and decision-making processes, and which permits the evaluation of a company's objectives and performance in the light of those forecasts. The analysis of an organisation's likely performance in given scenarios can, in turn, provide a basis for contingency planning.     

Plato and Delphi

Plato had an unparalleled influence on political and utopian thought through his Republic. Recently, Professor Clarke has emphasised the “Primacy of Plato” for the literature of the ideal state.¹ Some qualifications are offered here to Clarke's appraisal of Plato. These qualifications bear upon his characterisation of Plato's “extraordinary social insights and his exceptional power of thought”. They should be of particular interest to the futures researcher, as they are related to Delphi.     

The educational planning system: Change and tension

If educational planning is conceived as a means of making and implementing policy and not merely as an intellectual exercise, deeper consideration ought to be given to social tension and conflicts which might be implied by, and reflected in, social change processes. In this article, discrepancies are analysed as the main causes of social tension and conflict, and a discrepancy conceptual model is suggested as a means of identification of tension origins. Furthermore, since every system is characterised by its tension absorbability, assumptions are made about the critical limits of the system's “tension-input overload”, which are essential to educational planning.     

A partial adjustment theory of the balance of payments

This paper develops a partial adjustment theory of the balance of payments by incorporating the inter-temporal optimizing behavior of the two agents of the society: the public and the central bank. The central bank is viewed as the government's regulator of domestic credit and its objectives are taken as distinct from and possibly at odds with the public's objectives due to imperfect competition in the political marketplace. The final equation derived here implies that the balance of payments reflects both the active behavior of the central bank concerning foreign reserves and the contribution of the public's flow demand for money.     

Financial Planning and Investor Communications at GE (With a Look at Why We Ended Earnings Guidance)*

In this edited version of a talk given at a conference of accounting academics and corporate practitioners, the Vice Chairman and Chief Financial Officer of General Electric describes the company's internal budgeting and financial planning process, and how the information generated by this process is communicated to investors. The company's business model—the common thread running through all its different businesses—is to make large investments in technology that make possible the firm's equipment sales, which in turn provide the basis for a profitable long-term services business. The main role of the company's internal analysis and planning process is to help management allocate capital in a way that produces long-run growth in revenues and earnings but, most important, a competitive return on investor capital. Another major aim of the company's planning process is to help management identify and manage major risks that could interfere with management's ability to carry out its strategic investments and goals. The company's focus on risk management is both reflected in, and facilitated by, a forecasting process that puts less emphasis on the accuracy of “point estimates” and pays greater attention to the range and distribution of possible outcomes. “What we really care about,” as the author says, “is the quality of the thinking and the dialogue among our managers that takes place around the forecasting process.” And it is the output of these internal processes, and “the quality of the thinking and dialogue” behind it, that are “the essence of what the company is trying to communicate to analysts and investors.” Instead of holding up quarterly earnings targets—a practice the company ended in 2008—management's communications with investors are intended to create “a continuous flow of information and feedback about the ongoing performance, investment opportunities, and risks confronting the firm.” In the author's words, “Ending the firm's longstanding practice of holding up earnings target s to the Street, and then trying to meet them, helped us rid ourselves of needless pressures and burdens… that can get in the way of managing for long-run growth and profitability.”     

The role of saving and investment in exchange rate determination under alternative monetary mechanisms

We argue that the demand for national currencies depends on existing payment arrangements for imports and exports. Therefore, exchange rate movements depend on these arrangement. As a result, the relationship between exchange rate movements and various macroeconomic aggregates — like saving and investment — depend on what we call the monetary mechanism. These points are explicitly demonstrated by studying two extreme monetary mechanisms, one in which all payments are done with the seller's currency and one in which all payments are done with the buyer's currency.     

Institutional legitimacy and the FASB

A spectre, Demski's Impossibility Theorem, has stalked the classrooms and seminars of accounting academia for over a decade. After noting the reasons that make Demski's Impossibility Theorem largely irrelevant to assessment of the legitimacy of a real world institutional process like the FASB, this paper assesses the legitimacy of the FASB in terms of “individualistic constitutional calculus,” an approach that has recently evolved in the economics/political science literature. In line with this “individualistic constitutional calculus,” the paper next suggests three conditions of criteria that are sufficient to establish the legitimacy of an institution like the FASB. Finally, the FASB's ability to satisfy those conditions is evaluated by examining the nature of the standard-setting process and the economic and political environment in which it operates. Although the complexity of the empirical domain being considered necessitates reliance upon evidence that is largely anecdotal, the authors find support for the assertion that the FASB possesses institutional legitimacy.     

A corporate strategy for realizing equal employment opportunity

This paper examines the American corporation's societal environment and finds that an Equal Employment Index (EEI) can serve as a measurement tool to evaluate alternative hiring policies in light of corporate Equal Employment objectives. To help managers choose the “best” hiring policy, a manpower planning model is developed in conjunction with the EEI to solve for the employment policy that comes as close as possible, within manpower flow constraints, to realizing Equal Employment objectives. With this knowledge the manager executes the hiring policy he chooses. The resulting changes in the work force are then evaluated via the EEI and compared to the a priori outcome of the manpower planning model. The difference is used to guide and direct managerial behavior toward attainment of Equal Employment objectives.     

Long-range forecasting within organisations

The article describes a method for testing and developing personal and organisational strategies. It suggests the establishment of a group which includes the organisation's partners and competitors (the author outlines why and how objections to the latter should be overcome) and which would progress through initial “unrealistic” games to more realistic scenarios. When combined with role playing, some “uncomfortable” scenarios can lead to members leaving the group and, where they pinpoint weaknesses, can either strengthen the organisation or hasten its decline. By including the organisations' decision makers, the exercise can lead to a rehearsal of the future.     

发展海外贷款 推动人民币境外使用——日本“黑字环流”案例

为缓解巨额贸易顺差及促进日元输出,日本在20世纪80年代实施了"黑字环流"计划。通过发展"黑字环流"贷款,日本国际收支顺差得到有效利用,并以此推动日元国际化。本文对日本发展"黑字环流"计划的基本情况、特点、经验教训及对我国的启示进行了整理,以期为推动人民币境外使用提供一些借鉴。     

The Effect of Fiduciary Standards on Institutions' Preference for Dividend‐Paying Stocks

Many researchers apparently believe that some institutional investors prefer dividend‐paying stocks because they are subject to the “prudent man” (PM) standard of fiduciary responsibility, under which dividend payments provide prima facie evidence that an investment is prudent. Although this was once accurate for many institutions, during the 1990s most states replaced the PM standard with the less‐stringent “prudent investor” (PI) rule, which evaluates the appropriateness of each investment in a portfolio context. Controlling for the general decline in dividend‐paying stocks, we find that institutions reduced their holdings of dividend‐paying stocks by 2% to 3% as the PI standard spread during the 1990s. Studies of asset pricing and corporate governance should no longer consider dividend payments when evaluating the actions of institutional investors.     

Metropolitan vision making – using backcasting as a strategic learning process to shape metropolitan futures

The need for new forward-looking tools in urban planning is immense: new functional relations and structures are now stretching beyond our capacity to ‘rationally’ capture modern metropolitan spaces (Neumann & Hull, 2009). At the same time, cities struggle to find tools to help manage their long-term transition towards a low-carbon, resource-smart economy.In 2006–2007, the municipalities in the Helsinki metropolitan region organised an international competition for ideas titled “Greater Helsinki Vision 2050.” It drew a good number of entries in the competition stage and later helped bring together the awarded participants with local planning professionals and citizens.This paper explores the process behind the vision-making exercise and evaluates its success in providing new tools for the long-term transition to a low-carbon, resource-smart Helsinki metropolitan region. The theoretical framework used in this paper is ‘incrementalism with perspective’ (Ganser, Siebel & Sieverts, 1993) and its ideas on using long-term visions in the integration and coordination of incremental activities in various institutions. We perceive the backcasting scenario method (Dreborg, 1996) as a tool for implementing this approach and hence interpret the case example’s results through the framework of this method.The Greater Helsinki Vision 2050 competition was an example of a vision-oriented planning process that provided new tools for bringing the ‘unmanageable’ metropolitan region within the scope of the manageable. The backcasting approach was deployed as a tool for emancipating stakeholders to imagine alternative futures for metropolitan spaces.The backcasting scenario method should be considered a viable tool when managing vision-oriented planning processes: longer than usual time horizons help initiate strategic learning among stakeholders. However, in addition to civil servants, citizens and other stakeholders should be widely engaged in order to secure sustainable results.     

Policy models in accounting: A critical commentary

The accounting profession, through its rule-making apparatus, employs a particular choice model for identifying and resolving policy issues. This model is referred to in this article as the “constitional” approach. It is of interest to inquire why accountants have adopted this paradigm and eschewed other policy models, such as the “legal” or “scientific” approaches, even though the latter have generated considerable advocacy within the recent history of the profession. This paper examines the interesting hypothesis that the choice of the “constitutional” approach is consistent with the Group Self-Interest Hypothesis. By forming an associative group the major accounting firms have a primary interest in achieving higher prices for the industry's products. These higher prices can be achieved in three ways: (1) restricting entry, (2) restraining supply and (3) increasing demand. The “constitutional” approach is more efficacious in achieving these results than are the proposed alternative policy models.     

Managing activity and expenditure in the new NHS market

The English National Health Service is introducing ‘Payment by Results’ so that hospitals are paid according to the activity they undertake. This should encourage hospitals to increase activity but perhaps to unaffordable levels. Drawing on interviews with NHS staff and documentary evidence, the authors examine local strategies to manage activity and NHS expenditure. These alone cannot be relied upon to control expenditure, and payments themselves should be modified.     

Influences of Culture on Transfer Price Negotiation

Luft and Libby (1997) posit that American transfer price negotiators tend to settle on prices that result in smaller differences in profit between divisions than the external market price will dictate. They attribute the results to a fairness effect. While fairness is present in all cultures, what is considered “fair” differs between cultures (Bian & Keller, 1999; Bolton et al., 2009; Gao, 2009; Surowiecki, 2009). This study ascertains whether cultural affiliation of the negotiator impacts this fairness effect. American and Chinese subjects participated in within-culture and cross-cultural negotiations in an experiment modeled after Luft and Libby (1997). Our results confirm Luft and Libby's (1997) fairness effect when American participants negotiate with each other, but illustrate a contrary effect when Chinese participants negotiate with each other. The negotiator's cultural affiliation is found to determine profit distribution in cross-cultural negotiations. These findings are consistent with longstanding theories of cultural traits (Hofstede, 1980) that are relevant to transfer price negotiation activities. Our results imply that the fairness effect in transfer price negotiation may need to be refined to account for the impact of culture.     

Accounting education: Turning wrongs into rights in the 1980's

This article speculates upon the evolution of accounting education in the 1980's. Ideas are presented which impact upon many facets of higher education including undergraduate, graduate, and continuing education programs, as well as research and service. Further, institutional issues concerning the role of academics are addressed.The paper begins with “wrongs” of accounting research, education, libraries, and continuing education. Particular stress is placed upon weaknesses in educating and motivating accounting faculty to teach and have primary concern for students. Promotion, tenure, expense support, and reward structures are biased toward research and publication rather than teaching. Funding and faculty attention are not directed toward innovation in accounting education and development of university libraries as learning centers. In short, accounting educators continue to “educate for absolescence.”The paper ends with some suggestions of how to turn “wrongs” into “rights.” More than increased funding is needed. Of primary importance is a shift in attitudes and reward structures.     

Sterilization and the monetary approach to balance of payments analysis

The authorities can sterilize the balance of payments in both the short and long run if domestic capital markets are not fully integrated with those of the rest of the world. The degree of sterilization which the authorities employ is an important determinant of the economy's response to any outside changes.     

Insurance Pricing,Reserving, and Performance Evaluation Under External Constraints on Capitalization and Return on Equity

We derive formulas for calculating the premiums that should be charged on policies in a discounted cash flow model with tax reserves and required assets that are determined by regulation. We also determine the unique division of required assets into “reserves” and “capital” that allows the product profitability to be correctly evaluated. That is, the profit after capital charges is zero if the product achieves the return assumed in pricing. We illustrate the concepts using whole life insurance and guaranteed minimum death benefit examples.     

Informational society

The coming technology of automation, communications, and information processing, contributing to a new “social nervous system”, is discussed. The basic assumptions are that in the future, organisations will have no physical location and that man's primary activities will not be traditional work. The article suggests what this would mean for communities, economic organisations, government and the individual, and proposes a utopian institutional structure based on the stated technological assumptions.