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1.
We study the Bessel processes withtime-varying dimension and their applications to the extended Cox-Ingersoll-Rossmodel with time-varying parameters. It is known that the classical CIR model is amodified Bessel process with deterministic time and scale change. We show thatthis relation can be generalized for the extended CIR model with time-varyingparameters, if we consider Bessel process with time-varying dimension. Thisenables us to evaluate the arbitrage free prices of discounted bonds and theircontingent claims applying the basic properties of Bessel processes. Furthermorewe study a special class of extended CIR models which not only enables us to fitevery arbitrage free initial term structure, but also to give the extended CIRcall option pricing formula.  相似文献   

2.
As breast cancer is the most prevalent cancer among women in Singapore, encouraging them to engage in preventive measures becomes increasingly important. This study aims to take a closer look at the influence of attention to media, interpersonal communication, news elaboration, and knowledge on women’s (aged between 30 and 70) perceived risks of breast cancer and their intentions to engage in preventive measures in Singapore. Attention to media, frequency of interpersonal communication, fatalistic belief, and knowledge structure density were found to be associated with risk perception of breast cancer among Singaporean women. Findings also showed that frequency of interpersonal communication, risk perception, elaboration, and factual knowledge were positively associated with women’s intentions to take up preventive measures such as breast self-examination, clinical breast examination, and mammography. Implications for theory and practice were discussed.  相似文献   

3.
    
Abstract

Numbers saturate news coverage and health and risk messaging. But as our expertise in the creation of statistical information increases, the ability to use those statistics in decision making remains frustratingly inadequate. There has been a wealth of research related to how to train people to better use the numbers they interact with on a daily basis. Far less research, however, explores the appropriate way to use numbers in communication. Two experiments explored the role of numbers in risk communication infographics related to road safety while driving. Experiment 1 found that the presence of numbers influence risk perception, but whether those numbers reflect accurate statistics or random numbers does not change their influence. Experiment 2 found that removing all statistics entirely from infographics and replacing them with linguistic gist representations of the numbers (i.e. words like ‘some’, ‘many’, ‘none’) increased risk perception even though people found the infographics to be less informative than the ones containing numbers. The results suggest that the gist representations of the numbers in the context of the infographics are equivalent regardless of their value, such that the very presence of statistics influences judgment and risk perception but not their meaning. They also suggest that people do not always realize how they are using statistical information in their judgement and decision making process.  相似文献   

4.
    
Abstract

This article contributes to current research about determinants of climate change and flood risk perception, and intentions to take adaptive measures. We propose a research model that distinguishes between vulnerability and severity components of perceived risks, and adds perceived adaptive capacity as a third factor to predict the intention to take adaptive measures. We used this combined model as a conceptual lens for an explorative survey among 1086 residents of coastal and delta communities in Vietnam. Pairwise analyses revealed a significant association of flood and climate change risk perceptions with individual’s flood experience, climate change knowledge, frequency of community participation and socio-demographic factors. However, in multivariate analysis, the influence of most socio-demographic factors became weak or patchy. Flood experience was the most influential driver of flood-related risk perceptions but weak for climate change-related risk perceptions and behavioural intentions. Knowledge strongly increased the intention to adapt to flood and climate risks and the perceived vulnerability to and severity of climate change risks, but reduced the perceived capacity to adapt to climate risks. Frequency of community participation increased the perceived vulnerability and severity of climate change risks, the intention to adapt to both climate and flood risks and the perceived capacity to adapt to flood risks, but reduced the perceived capacity to adapt to climate risks. Our research confirms earlier findings that individuals’ knowledge, place-specific experience and social-cultural influences are key predictors of both flood and climate change risk perceptions and intentions to take adaptive measures. These factors should therefore receive ample attention in climate risk communication.  相似文献   

5.
    
This study focuses on newspaper coverage of the Hickox quarantine incident, using it as a case study to examine how the media characterized the spread of disease in an ongoing crisis situation characterized by uncertainty. The study builds on Slovic et al.’s research, who argue that risk perception is comprised of both emotional and analytical aspects. We employed a qualitative approach, first examining articles on Hickox’s story in The New York Times and New York Daily News between October 25 and 31, 2014; and second, readers’ comments in response to these articles. The findings from the newspaper articles show that in their treatment of the quarantine debate, the media did not address the issue of uncertainty, and thus continued the health authorities’ neglect of this issue. Although the media gave expression to various sides of the debate, it emphasized those who objected to the quarantine policy, thus raising the claim that the conflict was between ‘science’ and the public’s ‘irrational fears,’ and that the governors decided on quarantine in response to the public’s panic and fears. From our analysis of readers’ comments, it appears that these claims are unjustified. First, we found that the public did not speak in a single unified voice, but rather, was divided into supporters and opponents of quarantine. Both sides used scientific arguments and resorted to similar terminology, and tended to cite and present studies backing their arguments. As for irrational fears, although quarantine supporters expressed emotions, they indicated mainly concerns, not panic or hysteria.  相似文献   

6.
Credit Events and the Valuation of Credit Derivatives of Basket Type   总被引:6,自引:1,他引:6  
Thispaper provides a simple model for valuing a credit derivativewhose payoff depends on the identity (or identities) of the first(or first two) to occur of a given list of credit events, suchas defaults. The joint survival probability of occurrence timesof credit events is formulated in terms of stochastic intensityprocesses under the assumption of conditional independence. Basedon the joint survival probability, we can easily obtain the pricingformulas of such credit derivatives under the risk-neutral valuationframework. When the default intensity processes follow the extendedVasicek model, closed-form solutions of the pricing formulasare given.  相似文献   

7.
This article provides a simple model to value a credit swap ofthe basket type. Unlike the previous literature, we considerthe joint survival probability of occurrence times of creditevents in terms of stochastic intensity processes under the assumptionof conditional independence. Based on the joint survival probability,such a credit swap can be valued under the risk-neutral valuationframework. Assuming that the default intensity processes followthe extended Vasicek model with a correlation structure, an analyticexpression of the valuation formula is derived. Some numericalexample is given to demonstrate the usefulness of our model.  相似文献   

8.
9.
    
Abstract

This paper presents a detailed account of policy-making in a contemporary risk communication arena, where strong power dynamics are at play that have hitherto lacked theoretical analysis and empirical validation. Specifically, it expands on the understanding of how public health policy decisions are made when there is a weak evidential base and where multiple interpretations, power dynamics and values are brought to bear on issues of risk and uncertainty. The aim of the paper is to understand the role that power and expertise play in shaping public health risk communication within policy-related debates. By drawing on insight from a range of literatures, the paper argues that there several interacting factors that shape how a particular narrative gains prominence within a wider set of perspectives and how the arguments and findings associated with that perspective become amplified within the context of policy choices. These findings are conceptualised into a new model – a policy evaluation risk communication (PERC) framework – and are then tested using the Electronic cigarette debate as a case study.  相似文献   

10.
    
Highly disconcerting at the time, in retrospective, the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic looks like much ado about nothing. As a consequence, many accused the media of having created an artificial hype or hysteria around the new virus, thus contributing to unwarranted public fear. The current paper set out to examine the validity of such accusations. We integrated empirical findings on whether the media dramatized H1N1 on a global scale through systematically reviewing prior content-analytic studies. We developed a coding scheme specifying three indicators of dramatized media coverage that – together – inform about how mass media coverage about H1N1 may amplify risk perceptions in the public: (a) the volume of media coverage, (b) the media content presented, particularly an overemphasis of threat while neglecting measures of self-protection and (c) the tone of coverage. Results show that media attention was immense, that news content stressed threat over precautionary measures, while the pattern of coverage tonality remained nebulous due to conflicting findings. The present review also revealed a critical gap in existing knowledge about the tone of media coverage on H1N1, and discusses implications for future research on dramatization of public health risks by the media.  相似文献   

11.
    
While governments are concerned with controlling domestic safety issues and preventing resulting potential societal disruptions, events abroad can trigger similar effects. Globalisation magnifies the media attention for events, domestic and abroad, which poses new challenges for authorities. This paper suggests additional approaches for governments to address such situations. Based on interviews with experts and representatives of authorities and analysis of Dutch media attention for external safety events, this paper identifies criteria that can predict media attention and factors that may contribute to effective policy responses. Both can contribute to help to manage external safety risk events. The study shows that media response is predictable to a certain extent. This insight can be a tool in the wider range of measures for authorities to help manage a crisis situation and in particular strategies to cope with the media.  相似文献   

12.
    
In this paper, we propose a framework for the analysis of risk communication and an index to measure the quality of risk disclosure. Mainstream literature on voluntary disclosure has emphasized that quantity can be used as a sound proxy for quality. We contend that, in the analysis of the disclosure of risks made by public companies, attention has to be paid not only to how much is disclosed but also to what is disclosed and how.We apply the framework to a sample of nonfinancial companies listed in the ordinary market on the Italian Stock Exchange. To verify that the framework and synthetic index are not influenced by the two factors recognized in the literature as the most powerful drivers of disclosure behavior for listed companies, we use an OLS model. The regression shows that the index of disclosure quantity is not influenced either by size or industry. Thus, the synthetic measure can be used to rank the quality of the disclosure of risks.  相似文献   

13.
自媒体作为一种新型媒体,打破了传统媒体的垄断局面,更多公众可以参与事件的监控与言论的发表。食品是人类的安身之本,然而仅2013年上半年就爆发多件食品危机事件,引发消费者对食品行业的信任危机。自媒体的应用是一把双刃剑,本文研究了自媒体的特征和传播机制,分析了食品行业危机的特点,然后结合施拉姆的传播过程提出了自媒体的传播策略,认为在自媒体时代,食品行业的危机管理应从传播主体、传播信息内容、信息反馈、传播媒体以及传播的原则五方面加强管理。  相似文献   

14.
Abstract

Prior to the 2009?L’Aquila event, earthquake forecasting and early warning research focused specifically on earthquakes as the crisis events. Although this is still true, the manslaughter convictions of six earthquake scientists and one public official for failed risk communication in 2009 served as a catalyst for expanding these goals to also intentionally examine the challenges of communicating earthquake risk with non-scientific during the pre-crisis stage of the earthquake lifecycle. The Crisis Emergency Risk Communication (CERC) Model developed by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) provides specific guidelines for doing so. Thus, based on a thematic analysis of interviews with 21 earthquake scientists, this study identifies what those responsible for communicating regularly about earthquake risk see as major communication challenges and the extent to which the CERC model recommendations are useful for addressing them. Results suggest that earthquake risk science communicators are most effective when they translate scientific and technical information simply, respond to competing messages, capitalize on relevant popular culture references, employ risk communication campaigns during ‘quiet periods’, and acknowledge uncertainty. These findings have implications not only for earthquake science risk communicators, but also for expanding the pre-crisis stage best practices proposed in the Crisis Emergency Risk Communication (CERC) model. Essentially, this study reveals that soliciting and responding to feedback in the pre-crisis stage could help spokespersons clarify or correct any messages that are perceived by audiences as unclear or are simply not accurate. Doing so may improve risk communication effectiveness not only during the pre-crisis stage but also throughout the earthquake crisis lifecycle.  相似文献   

15.
An analysis of real-estate risk using the present value model   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
The current study uses a present value model that allows for a time-varying expected discount rate in conjunction with a VAR process to decompose real-estate risk. The study finds that the variance ofunexpected returns accounts for most of the total risk with cash-flow risk accounting for twice as much of the unexplained real-estate risk although discount rate risk is also an important factor. This dominance of cash-flow risk is found to result in a weaker mean reversion process for real estate relative to stocks. Another finding is that real estate investors tend to become apprehensive about the future when news on future cash flow is good, and thus they demand higher expected future returns.  相似文献   

16.
    
In this paper, we consider the problem of optimal investment by an insurer. The wealth of the insurer is described by a Cramér–Lundberg process. The insurer invests in a market consisting of a bank account and m risky assets. The mean returns and volatilities of the risky assets depend linearly on economic factors that are formulated as the solutions of linear stochastic differential equations. Moreover, the insurer preferences are exponential. With this setting, a Hamilton–Jacobi–Bellman equation that is derived via a dynamic programming approach has an explicit solution found by solving the matrix Riccati equation. Hence, the optimal strategy can be constructed explicitly. Finally, we present some numerical results related to the value function and the ruin probability using the optimal strategy.  相似文献   

17.
    
Monetary policy relies on managing the inflation expectations of the public in order to influence prices (inflation). Relying on the South African experience, we argue that most of the general public are exposed to the communication of the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) only via the media. This state of affairs is fairly typical around the globe. We explored the role and biases of the journalists in transmitting the SARB’s communications to the rationally inattentive general public. Our aim was to obtain insights about the factors that influence media articles that deal with monetary policy issues. Using interviews and qualitative content analysis, we explored the extent of the journalists’ knowledge about inflation and monetary policy, their views concerning the credibility of the SARB, the sources of information they use, and the constraints and incentives they face in writing their articles.  相似文献   

18.
The purpose of this paper is to provide some insight into the level and type of media coverage that food risks received and consider the translation of press releases into media articles. Past scientific messages dealing with two food risks (Salmonella and Genetically Modified (GM) potatoes) were collected from various Irish media sources over a defined period. In addition, press releases and helpline data were collected. All data pieces were subsequently coded. Based on the audit it is clear that island of Ireland journalists are generally balanced with regard to their reporting on Salmonella. In most cases where press releases could be linked to the newspaper articles, the press release was represented fairly accurately. This brings into clear focus the need by those issuing press releases to be very clear on the meaning of their message. Journalists are using the press releases as the basis for articles therefore vague terms and overemphasis on a particular finding can result in what may appear as a sensational article. In the case of GMs more sensational hooks were used to draw attention to the articles. Thus communicators need to be aware of the characteristics of the risk they are communicating about when designing and delivering a risk message.  相似文献   

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20.
哈贝马斯是法兰克福学派的代表人物,他提出的交往理论所内涵的交往理性,交往真实性、正确性和公正性对于目前人文素养教育具有非凡意义和影响。媒介素养教育作为同样培养人与外界关系的学科,也应该遵守哈贝马斯交往理论中的交往原则。现实来看,我国大学生尤其是外语专业大学生媒介素养的缺失是不争的事实,但造成这种局面的原因有多方面。鉴于此,作为教育主体,不仅要强化教育各层级的媒介素养教育观念,建立媒介素养教育体系,而且要改革高校外语专业教育的内容和方式,从而让学生树立正确的媒介素养观念。  相似文献   

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