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1.
本文从中国权证市场选取了六只代表性的权证,运用修正的Black—Scholes模型(以下简称B-S模型),分析计算了6只权证的理论价格。我们发现权证的市场价格与理论价格存在很大的偏差,我们定义其为偏离度。为了解释偏离度的影响因素,我们运用面板数据模型(Panel Data Model)对其进行了数量分析。分析结果表明,我国中国权证市场存在一定的投机氛围,但造成投机的主要因素是缺乏卖空机制。  相似文献   

2.
文章通过建立误差修正模型( Error Correction ModeL,ECM)和基于持有成本理论的误差修正模型( Error Correction ModeL Cost of Carry,ECM-CoC),对美国黄金市场的期货与现货市场在金融危机前后的互动关系进行了实证分析。结果表明:在2007年金融危机前美国黄金期货市场引导黄金现货市场,期货市场的价格发现功能得以实现;在金融风暴后美国黄金现货和期货市场存在双向引导关系;美国黄金期货市场和现货市场之间存在长期均衡关系,期货市场和现货市场均存在误差修正机制,美国现货市场价格恢复均衡的调整速度高于黄金期货市场。  相似文献   

3.
通过采用个股与市场同步法和价格反转的分析方法研究开盘集合竞价透明度与市场质量之间的关系,发现从日内效应来看,开盘集合竞价透明度提高以后,交易者的执行成本增加,整体来说市场的流动性是降低了;从事件前后市场模型的拟合优度比较结果来看,开盘集合竞价透明度提高以后股票个股与市场反应不一致,价格发现效率降低,市场质量降低。  相似文献   

4.
北京商品住宅价格变动实证分析   总被引:13,自引:0,他引:13  
以动态资本市场分析为基础,运用住宅价格回归模型和二次曲线趋势模型对北京市商品住宅价格的变动趋势及影因素进行了实证分析,到目前为止,北京市商品住宅的价格以较快的速度上升,没有明显的周期性,影响住宅实际价格的因素主要是住宅实际建造成本和实际国内生产总值,其中,实际建设成本对住宅价格的影响作非常显著。  相似文献   

5.
本文选取白糖市场数据,借助协整检验、误差修正模型、Granger因果检验、Hasbrouck信息份额模型和脉冲响应函数等计量分析方法,从价格发现效率的视角对期货市场在我国食糖市场价格形成中的作用进行实证研究。结果表明,期货价格与现货价格之间具有长期均衡关系;期货市场发现价格的效率明显高于现货市场;期货市场在我国食糖市场价格形成中处于主导地位.为此,我国应充分发挥期货市场功能,完善食糖市场价格形成机制,形成以期货价格为主要参考的多层次、高效率的食糖市场价格体系.  相似文献   

6.
在发达的股票现货市场,对股票价格的预期可以引起股指期货合约价格的变化。但是通过对股指期货持仓成本模型的分析,我们发现无风险利率在理论上对股指期货合约的价格也会施以影响。从对由持仓成本模型结合无风险套利原理推导出的股指期货合约价格模型分析,指出无风险利率与股指期货合约价格的关系,借助于对无风险利率的控制从而减弱因股票现货市场价格波动而使期货市场股指期货合约价格的波动效应。  相似文献   

7.
新政策     
《云南金融》2011,(10):9-9
发改委严查节日哄抬价格串通涨价 国家发改委于2011年9月上旬下发通知,要求各地价格主管部门加强中秋、国庆期间市场价格监管,规范市场价格秩序,保持物价基本稳定。  相似文献   

8.
期货市场是市场经济体系的高端形式,具有发现市场价格、规避价格风险等重要功能。有效利用农产品期货市场的组织功能、导向作用和避险机制,对于充分利用市场手段、发挥市场效力,来推动新农村建设具有重要价值。  相似文献   

9.
资本市场是有效理论是众人们发现股票价格波动遵循随机走规律后逐步形成和发展起来的,它认为资本市场的有效程度取决于市场信息在价格中的反映程度,一个完全有效的市场不存在获取超额利润的可能性,也就没有投机空间;它主要研究信息如何充分反映到价格中的过程。这一理论对规范资本市场,提高市场效率,控制过度投机有重要意义。  相似文献   

10.
二级市场股票交易价格调节系统研究田玉清,贾春新二级市场股票交易价格除国家政治、经济大动荡,上市公司破产或被收购外,一般情况下是不应大起大落的(当然,由于一定范围内供需矛盾,股票交易价格在股票价值附近波动是正常的)。然而,由于严重投机,我国二级市场股票...  相似文献   

11.
We introduce a multivariate Hawkes process that accounts for the dynamics of market prices through the impact of market order arrivals at microstructural level. Our model is a point process mainly characterized by four kernels associated with, respectively, the trade arrival self-excitation, the price changes mean reversion, the impact of trade arrivals on price variations and the feedback of price changes on trading activity. It allows one to account for both stylized facts of market price microstructure (including random time arrival of price moves, discrete price grid, high-frequency mean reversion, correlation functions behaviour at various time scales) and the stylized facts of market impact (mainly the concave-square-root-like/relaxation characteristic shape of the market impact of a meta-order). Moreover, it allows one to estimate the entire market impact profile from anonymous market data. We show that these kernels can be empirically estimated from the empirical conditional mean intensities. We provide numerical examples, application to real data and comparisons to former approaches.  相似文献   

12.
本文采用信息份额模型和基于向量自回归(VAR)模型的格兰杰因果检验,研究了国债现货、国债期货和利率互换三个市场之间的价格发现机制。信息份额模型表明,从整体来看利率互换相对于国债期货和国债现货都具有信息优势,而国债期货相对于国债现货具有信息优势。另外,国债期货的价格发现能力相对于另外两个市场都在随时间增强。格兰杰因果检验结果显示,利率互换在价格发现中单向引领国债期货以及国债现货,国债期货单向引领国债现货。所有结果一致表明, 利率互换和国债期货这两种利率衍生产品在引导中国利率市场价格发现中发挥了重要作用。  相似文献   

13.
刘京军  张健 《金融研究》2022,509(11):154-170
从制度设计上打破市场分割、促进市场整合,对提高市场效率、促进经济有序健康发展具有重要意义。本文以商品期货上市作为准自然实验,构建双重差分模型,实证检验了商品期货上市交易对现货商品市场价格整合的影响。研究发现,现货商品市场价格整合程度在相应商品期货上市后显著提升,这是因为商品期货上市显著地促进了价格信息在全国范围内的传导,且这种提升效应主要体现在价格信息传导比较顺畅的地区。此外,商品期货上市提高了现货商品市场价格同步性,缓解了现货商品价格信息滞后程度,降低了现货商品交易成本。进一步研究发现,商品期货市场的交易信息质量越高,越有利于提高现货商品市场的整合程度。本研究为当前我国建设全国统一大市场提供了一定参考。  相似文献   

14.
本文在考察我国房地产市场供求特征及其经济后果的基础上,构造了一个具有正反馈效应的概念模型。认为由房地产市场的垄断特性带来的供给失灵使得房地产潜在使用需求受到抑制,投资需求得到强化,而这两者又放大和强化了房地产供给失灵,从而解释了我国目前房地产市场房价高、房屋空置率高的矛盾现象,指出房地产问题的根源在于市场垄断下的供给失灵,并提出通过增加房屋供给和制度建设两个方面来治理供给失灵、改善房地产市场运行的政策建议。  相似文献   

15.
This study provides a model explaining how small changes in asset prices may disrupt an entire financial market. Based on the capital asset pricing model (CAPM), our model implies that during a market crash, asset price changes affect the relative distribution of the CAPM betas of individual assets and force all tradable assets to co-move. Using US stock market data, our empirical results are consistent with the model’s predictions. Overall, the study aids understanding of the price patterns of assets during substantial market downturns, such as financial crises.  相似文献   

16.
17.
宏观经济统计数据公布对中国金融市场影响的实证研究   总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2  
本文分别运用无市场预期和引入市场预期之后的GARCH模型,研究消费者物价指数、固定资产投资增速、消费品零售总额增速、贸易顺差额以及货币供应量这五个宏观经济数据的定期公布对于我国股票市场、债券市场及外汇市场波动的影响。我们发现在股票市场,CPI统计数据的公布加大了日收益率的波动率,而其它经济数据的公布减小了其波动率;债券市场和外汇市场由于市场化程度较低,宏观经济统计数据的公布对其价格行为的影响较小。  相似文献   

18.
The stock price runup of target firms in the market for corporate control has been anecdotally attributed to inside trading. Moreover, the empirical merger and acquisitions literature documents a time-varying level and duration of the stock price runup of target firms. Using a market microstructure approach, we model stock price runup as a stochastic process that shifts between a random walk without drift and a predictable process dependent on a parsimonious set of state variables. Consistent with the market microstructure literature, predictability in prices can be exploited only by the informed trader. The model is capable of explaining the complex stylized facts observed in stock price runup. It is also consistent with the merger wave literature, as we find that capital liquidity, economic growth, and market valuations drive the complex dynamics of stock price runup.  相似文献   

19.
Financial transaction costs are time varying. This paper proposes a model that relates transaction cost to characteristics of order flow. We obtain qualitatively consistent model results for different stocks and across different time periods. We find that an unusual excess of buyers (sellers) relative to sellers (buyers) tends to increase the ask (bid) price. Hence, the ask and bid components of spread change asymmetrically about the efficient price. For a fixed order imbalance surprise these effects are muted when unanticipated total volume is high. Unexpected high volatility in the transaction price process tends to widen the spread symmetrically about the efficient price. Our findings are consistent with predications from market microstructure theory that the cost of market making should depend on both the risk of trading with better-informed traders and inventory risk. We also find that order flow surprises have a significant impact on the efficient price and can also explain a substantial amount of persistence in the volatility of the efficient price. This dependence does not violate the efficient market hypothesis since the surprises, by definition, are not predictable.  相似文献   

20.
The price of power: The valuation of power and weather derivatives   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
Pricing contingent claims on power presents numerous challenges due to (1) the unique behavior of power prices, and (2) time-dependent variations in prices. We propose and implement a model in which the spot price of power is a function of two state variables: demand (load) and fuel price. In this model, any power derivative price must satisfy a PDE with boundary conditions that reflect capacity limits and the non-linear relation between load and the spot price of power. Moreover, since power is non-storable and demand is not a traded asset, the power derivative price embeds a market price of risk. Using inverse problem techniques and power forward prices from the PJM market, we solve for this market price of risk function. During 1999–2001, the upward bias in the forward price was as large as $50/MWh for some days in July. By 2005, the largest estimated upward bias had fallen to $19/MWh. These large biases are plausibly due to the extreme right skewness of power prices; this induces left skewness in the payoff to short forward positions, and a large risk premium is required to induce traders to sell power forwards. This risk premium suggests that the power market is not fully integrated with the broader financial markets.  相似文献   

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