债券评级分析师任期、债项评级和信用利差

基于2008-2019年长期信用债数据,本文实证研究发现:评级分析师任期越长,信用评级越低;较长的分析师任期能够影响评级准确性,降低"未能预测违约"的第Ⅰ类错误,增加"错误违约预警"的第Ⅱ类错误;相比于短分析师任期,长分析师任期能够增强信用评级对信用利差的降低作用.本文还发现,相比于未被投资者付费评级机构评级的债券,投...     

风险提示信息、分析师跟进与机构投资者持股

与先前主要研究机构投资者持股的影响因素及经济后果的文献不同,基于机构投资者群体的异质性,考察分析师跟进对机构投资者持股决策的影响及其企业风险提示信息的调节作用.研究发现:机构投资者整体持股比例随分析师跟进数量的增加而增加,但增加的程度因机构投资者类型的不同而产生差异,风险提示信息的加入会减弱分析师跟进的促进效应;进一步研究发现,风险提示信息产生的持股减弱效应显著改善了异质性机构投资者持股的公司治理效果.研究结果表明:机构投资者持股决策是否采纳分析师的跟进意见,既与机构投资者的不同类型有关,也与风险提示信息的决策价值相关,对风险信息的考量有助于异质性机构投资者持股的公司治理效果的改善.     

有限注意力、竞争性信息与分析师评级报告市场反应

证券分析师是资本市场中重要的信息提供者和解读者,竞争性信息的存在以及投资者有限注意力是否会损害投资者对证券分析师研究报告的反应是一个重要的理论和实践话题。本文采用分析师评级报告调整作为切入点首次研究了竞争性信息在证券分析师行业中的分散注意力现象。研究发现,同日发布的分析师研究报告越多,即竞争性信息越多,投资者对分析师评级报告的即期反应越弱,而滞后反应的程度越大,这意味着竞争性信息的存在的确分散了投资者对分析师研究报告的注意力,进而导致市场反应不足。研究结果在稳健性检验后仍然成立。进一步研究发现,竞争性信息导致的投资者注意力分散现象在分析师正面推荐和负面推荐中表现不同,而且投资者注意力分散现象主要存在于机构持股比例较低、同行业竞争信息较多、可见性较差的公司当中。     

美国信用评级机构利益冲突的规制研究

利益冲突被认为是信用评级机构失去中立性和丧失预警功能的重要原因之一,从现有的信用评级机构的运行模式来看,利益冲突广泛存在于信用评级机构和评级分析师两个层面.次贷危机发生之后,美国的监管部门不断地修改现有法律,并发布一些监管条例,试图控制利益冲突对评级结果的影响.信用评级机构也通过内部规则和程序治理利益冲突.     

分析师跟踪、投资者关注与股价同步性

中国证券市场的参与者水平参差不齐,专业分析师提供的增量信息是否充分的被普通投资者吸收和消化,现有的文献并未清晰的回答上述问题。本文建立实证分析模型,首先验证2008-2012年A股上市公司分析师跟踪与股价同步性之间的关系,然后,利用百度搜索指数作为投资者关注的代理变量,将普通投资者关注作为调节变量加入模型,分析普通投资者关注对上述关系的影响,依据机构持股比例分组进行回归分析,以期观察在机构投资者不同时普通投资者对分析师报告利用的效果。研究发现:中国证券分析师能提高股价的信息含量,而普通投资者对上市公司的关注会降低股价的信息含量,同时,其无法有效的解读分析师报告;在机构持股比例较高的样本组中,普通投资者对分析师报告股价同步性降低的效应要弱于机构持股比例较低组。上述发现不仅丰富了公司信息环境方面的文献,更揭示了普通投资者的信息解读效应。     

IFRS、财务分析师、机构投资者和权益资本成本——基于信息治理观视角

本文基于信息治理观视角,探讨新会计准则实施前后,财务分析师和机构投资者对权益资本成本的影响。研究发现,新会计准则实施后,上市公司的权益资本成本增加,但是,由于财务分析师和机构投资者的信息治理功能,上市公司的权益资本成本会降低,并且发现二者以相互替代的方式产生影响。进一步分析发现,在采用新会计准则后,财务分析师和机构投资者均能减少应计盈余管理行为。这支持了本文的会计信息治理观,表明财务分析师和机构投资者具有降低公司信息风险的作用。     

机构投资者空间集中度、外部监督与上市公司盈余管理

基于2007-2018年沪深A股上市公司样本,利用手工收集的投资者与上市公司之间的地理距离数据和投资者持股比例数据,本文实证检验了机构投资者空间集中度对上市公司盈余管理的影响。研究发现,机构投资者空间集中度越大,公司盈余管理行为受到的抑制作用越大,且这种影响存在显著的异质性特征。进一步的机制分析发现,机构投资者空间集中度能够通过审计监督、分析师关注对公司盈余管理形成显著的中介因子效应。总体而言,本文结果认为机构投资者彼此之间的空间关系能够对公司盈余管理行为进行一定程度的解释,这为资本市场发展机构投资者,释放监督作用提供了政策制定的经验证据。     

债券市场的评级信息能改善股票市场信息环境吗?——来自分析师预测的证据

本文研究发现,信用评级增加了分析师预测的公共信息,同时没有减少分析师预测的私有信息,即信用评级信息能够改善股票市场信息环境。具体地,本文利用2006-2016年上市公司数据实证发现,信用评级能显著提高分析师预测精度、降低分析师预测分歧度与乐观偏差,且这种效应在信息不对称程度高、低能力分析师跟踪的企业以及外资参股的评级机构中更加显著,这说明信用评级向分析师提供了新的信息。进一步地,信用评级只增加了分析师预测的公共信息,对私有信息没有显著影响,同时也不影响分析师的调研行为,上述结论表明信用评级信息披露并不影响分析师拥有私有信息的优势,且信用评级机构与分析师之间存在互补而非替代关系。因此,金融监管应该加强对评级机构尽职调研的要求,充分发挥信用评级机构的信息中介功能。     

联合资信董事长王少波：评级机构不能左右风险

评级公司创立品牌的最佳途径就是始终如一地做到客观、公正的第三方中立评级。尽管评级机构在金融市场上形成了一定影响,但无需过分夸大其作用。作为金融债券市场中有发言权的机构之一,评级公司只能去揭示风险,却不能左右风险,投资者才真正决定金融债券市场的趋势。     

机构投资者的治理角色——过度投资视角

本文以2007~2009年我国上市公司的过度投资行为为背景,考察机构投资者持股对过度投资的治理角色。研究结果表明,机构的期末持股比例、长线型机构投资者尤其是长线型基金与过度投资显著负相关,表现为有效监督者的角色;短线型机构投资者则缺乏公司治理的意愿和动机,表现为利益攫取者的角色。研究结果意味着,我国的机构投资者同时具备有效监督者和利益攫取者的角色,何时表现出何种角色取决于持股比例以及持股时间。     

Whose money is smart? Individual and institutional investors’ trades based on analyst recommendations

This study explores how institutional and individual investors respond to analyst recommendations. Using a unique account-level trading dataset taken from the Shanghai Stock Exchange, we obtain direct evidence to show that (1) active institutional investors are significantly net buyers (net sellers) on “strong buy” and “buy” (“hold” and “sell”) recommendations; (2) active institutional investors condition their trades based on the buy-side pressure of analysts; (3) institutional investors earn abnormal returns by incorporating analysts’ buy-side pressure into their trading reactions to analyst recommendations; and (4) individual investors, in contrast, exhibit abnormal trade reactions opposite to those of active institutional investors. Our results are robust to alternative measures and different specifications. This study provides evidence that active institutional investors are more sophisticated processors of information and provides support for regulators’ concerns about the sub-optimal investment decisions made by individual investors who are unaware of the potential conflicts of interest analysts may face.     

分析师为什么选择性的发布现金流预测?——基于信息需求理论的实证研究

分析师在对公司发布盈余预测的同时,还对一些公司发布了现金流预测。分析师为什么仅针对某些公司发布现金流预测?其动因何在?本文基于信息需求理论对上述问题进行了研究,研究发现,分析师针对现金流信息需求高的公司发布现金流预测的可能性更大。进一步发现,分析师更可能对非国有控股的公司发布现金流预测。本文首次基于我国独特的制度背景,研究分析师选择性发布现金流预测的动因问题。本文的结论有助于加深对分析师行为的理解,并对投资者决策具有一定的参考价值。     

A survey of corporate perceptions of short-termism among analysts and fund managers

There is a popularly held view that institutional investors and stockbrokers' analysts take a short-term view when making or advising on investment decisions. Short-termism is held to be a particular problem for economies such as the US and the UK which rely heavily on stock exchanges to price securities and help reallocate resources through take-over. This is deemed to be detrimental to long-term corporate development and overall economic growth. The paper seeks to show the extent to which directors of large UK companies perceive that analysts and institutional investors evaluate their companies on short-term criteria. The role of institutional investors in the context of short-termism is important because they own a large proportion of equity. The paper then seeks to explain why some company directors appear to believe in short-termism while others do not. Hence the paper is not investigating whether ‘the City’ is short-termist but is examining the reasons why directors of large publicly quoted companies believe ‘the City’ is or is not short-termist about their company. The conclusion of this paper is that there is some evidence to support the view that ‘the City’ is perceived as being short-termist towards some companies but that the phenomenon is more narrowly focused and of lesser importance than its supporters claim.     

Market reaction to optimistic bias in the recommendations of chaebol-affiliated analysts

Using the setting of chaebol industrial organizations in Korea, which allows for the study of a unique affiliation between a chaebol group and financial analysts, we examine whether investors react to an optimistic bias in affiliated analysts’ recommendations. Our initial market return tests, abnormal trading volume tests and independent analysts’ reaction tests suggest that investors and independent analysts recognize and discount an optimistic bias in chaebol-affiliated ‘buy’ recommendations. However, long-term market returns are more profitable in terms of affiliated analysts’ ‘buy’ recommendations than independent analysts’ recommendations, which suggests that investors excessively discount chaebol-affiliated ‘buy’ recommendations in the short-term.     

Do site visits mitigate corporate fraudulence? Evidence from China

Corporate site visits emerge as an increasingly important means of information acquisition process for analysts and institutional investors. In this study, we test whether and how site visits mitigate corporate fraud risk using a unique dataset of site visits to Chinese listed firms. We find that corporate site visits can substantially reduce the incidence of corporate fraud, which is robust to adding a series of control variables, alternative model specifications and alternative measures of corporate fraud, as well as accounting for endogeneity issue and controlling for firm and time fixed effects. This negative effect is more pronounced for firms with poorer information environment and for firms with weaker corporate governance. Furthermore, we examine the mechanisms underlying the negative association between site visits and corporate fraud. Overall, this paper contributes to the literature by providing complementary evidence that site visits are important venues for analysts and institutional investors to collect firm-specific information and monitor the management of firms in China. Our findings also provide significant practical and policy implications for investors and regulators who seek to promote corporate information disclosure and mitigate the risk of corporate fraud.     

保险治理与公司违规——董事高管责任保险的治理效应研究

公司治理机制被认为是影响公司违规的重要因素,然而董事高管责任保险作为一种重要的外部治理机制,是否会影响公司违规尚未得到充分研究。本文研究发现董事高管责任保险显著降低公司违规概率,符合监督效应假说。经工具变量法、Heckman两阶段模型和倾向得分匹配法稳健性检验,上述结论依然成立。影响机制分析表明,董事高管责任保险显著降低了公司违规倾向,显著增加了违规后被稽查的概率,并降低了上市公司的第一类代理成本。对董事高管责任保险的监督职能做进一步分析发现:(1)董事高管责任保险对上市公司经营违规和领导人违规的监督效应更为显著,但对信息披露违规的治理作用并不显著;(2)董事高管责任保险发挥的监督职能与股权属性和保险机构股东治理存在替代效应,与外部审计师治理和董事长CEO二职分离存在互补效应;(3)分组检验结果表明,董事高管责任保险对公司违规的监督效应在外部监管环境较差或者公司内部信息透明度较高的情况下更加显著。本文既提供了保险合约通过公司治理渠道影响公司违规的证据,同时也表明保险机构通过董事高管责任保险为中国资本市场提供了一种较为有效的公司外部治理机制。     

Are Stars’ Opinions Worth More? The Relation Between Analyst Reputation and Recommendation Values

Using 1994–2009 data, we find that All-American (AA) analysts’ buy and sell portfolio alphas significantly exceed those of non-AAs by up to 0.6 % per month after risk-adjustments for investors with advance access to analyst recommendations. For investors without such access, top-rank AAs still earn significantly higher (by 0.3 %) monthly alphas in buy recommendations than others. AAs’ superior performance exists before (as well as after) they are elected, is not explained by market overreactions to stars, and is not significantly eroded after Reg-FD. Election to top-AA ranks predicts future performance in buy recommendations above and beyond other previously observable analyst characteristics. Institutional investors actively evaluate analysts and update the AA roster accordingly. Collectively, these results suggest that skill differences among analysts exist and AA election reflects institutional investors’ ability to evaluate and benefit from elected analysts’ superior skills. Other investors’ opportunity to profit from the stars’ opinions exists, but is limited due to their timing disadvantage.     

Birds of a feather flock together: Institutional investors with disciplinary history and financial reporting

This study examines the role of financial misconduct of institutional investors on financial reporting quality of investee firms. We find that the firms held by institutional investors with disciplinary history (IDH) are more likely to engage in financial misreporting. Our results are not driven by institutional investor characteristics such as activism, incentives to monitor, investment horizon, or portfolio size. The impact of IDH is stronger in the firms that are more likely to engage in financial misreporting (i.e., the firms that barely meet analysts’ expectations and with CEOs with higher career concerns). IDH have stronger impact on financial misreporting when the institution reports multiple disciplinary events, the disciplinary event is recent, or disciplinary action is taken against the institutional investor company rather than just its affiliates. Results continue to hold after implementing various statistical tests to address potential endogeneity issues and alternative measures of financial misreporting.     

机构投资者在上市公司治理结构中的角色分析——基于盈余稳健性的视角

本文选取我国沪深两市A股上市公司2009—2013年之间的非金融类上市公司作为研究样本,通过非平衡面板数据和固定效应回归模型进行实证分析。研究发现,机构投资者持股比例对公司盈余稳健性呈负相关关系,即机构投资者对上市公司并没有发挥监督治理效应。     

Corporate culture and analyst catering

This study examines the relation between financial institutions’ corporate culture and the quality of analysts’ research services. Using data collected from the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority, I measure the weakness of financial institutions’ corporate culture based on violations observed in securities activities unrelated to equity research. I find evidence demonstrating an association between weak corporate culture and analysts’ providing research products catered to institutional clients at the expense of individual investors. Specifically, FINRA violations are associated with both (i) less accurate forecasts and less informative reports, and (ii) higher institutional commission revenues and more broker-hosted conferences for select institutional clients.