人民币资本项目开放:国内观点争论

人民币资本项目开放是金融改革一个难点及颇具争论的话题。2012年人民银行研究课题提出要加快推进资本项目开放,引起国内研究者广泛争议,争论围绕三个主题:当前是否应加快推进资本项目开放、资本项目开放与利率汇率改革的次序、资本项目开放的路线图与时间表,本文对有关观点进行了概述。     

资本账户开放水平对国际收支结构的影响分析

当前我国经济转向高质量发展，资本项目对外开放步伐加快。随着金融业准入的负面清单正式清零，国家外汇管理局提出要以金融市场双向开放为重点，稳妥有序推进资本项目开放，并将稳妥有序推进资本项目高水平开放作为年度重点工作。同时，一系列政策的出台为我国加快资本项目对外开放提供了全面支持和保障。为进一步了解资本账户开放水平对国际收支结构的影响，文章以全球38个国家1996—2019年的数据为样本构建实证模型，从经常账户、资本和金融账户两个层面，多个资本子市场开放角度，分析资本账户开放水平对国际收支结构的作用效果。     

人民币资本项目可兑换：次序与条件--基于宏观经济政策效应分析视角

摘要：资本项目可兑换改革是金融改革开放的突破口，当前人民币资本项目可兑换进程逐渐加快。本文从宏观经济政策效应分析视角，结合我国特点对蒙代尔一弗莱明模型进行了延伸论证，提出了适时、择机的宏观政策搭配在推进资本项目可兑换进程中的必要性。通过借鉴韩国、日本等国家资本项目可兑换经验，发现资本项目可兑换并无统一模式可循，必须根据国情特点渐进开放，在此过程中国内金融市场发展及宏观审慎监管是必要的，同时还要保持适度临时性的资本管制措施。最后，根据我国当前国情特点提出了实现人民币资本项目可兑换的主要原则、条件与路径。     

资本项目开放的国际经验对我国的启示

当前我国面临人民币升值的压力不断加大,这种压力既来自国内更多的来自国外。而有效解决人民币升值问题的关键是开放我国的资本项目,研究不同类型特别是新兴国家资本项目开放的经验,将有助于我国选择资本项目开放的路径和时机,以加快资本项目开放的进程。     

资本项目开放中的货币危机预警研究

20世纪90年代以来,世界金融危机频繁爆发,不同程度地反映了国际资本流动对经济和金融的负面影响.随着我国资本项目开放的步伐逐步加快,构建资本项目开放中的风险预警系统是涉及到我国经济健康发展和宏观经济调控的重大课题.本文运用具有马尔科夫区制转换的向量自同归模型,构建了面向资本项目开放的货币危机预警模型.研究结果表明,预警模型发出风险信号的时机比较符合我国现实情况.文中对引发货币危机的潜在因素进行分析,针对发现的问题提出提高中央银行贷币政策独立性、加快利率和汇率形成机制改革、引入成熟市场经济调节方式等政策建议.     

花儿为什么这样红——跨国公司外汇资金内部运营管理制度改革及政策效果

近年来，中国资本项目外汇管理改革进程令人瞩目：一系列新政策新法规为进一步鼓励外商直接投资，规范外债管理、审慎开放资本市场注入了新的动力与元素，其主要表现为：资本流入已达到相当规模，对外资本输出逐渐增多，利用外资的渠道日益多元化，资本项下交易规模迅速扩大，资本项目的可兑换正在积极有序地推进。从外汇体制改革开放进程看，我国采取了渐进式开放的策略。按照国际货币基金组织划分的43个资本交易项目，目前中国有近一半的资本项目交易已基本不受限制或有较少限制，有四成多交易项目受较多限制，严格管制的项目仅有一成多。回顾这个过程，我们可以看到中国资本项目外汇管理改革的一条真切清晰的发展轨迹，即：从我国的实际出发，借鉴国际经验，以放松资本项目交易限制，引入和培育资本市场工具为主线，在风险可控的前提下，依照循序渐进、统筹规划，先易后难、留有余地的原则，分阶段、有选择地逐步推出资本项目开放措施。 为全面展示资本项目外汇管理改革的风貌，本刊从第7期开始分3次组织连续报道：上期是双Q渐进开放，本期是跨国公司外汇资金内部运营管理改革，下期是规范外债管理。希望与广大读者共同分享。[编者按]     

资本项目开放与银行业务发展机遇探析

随着人民币国际化的持续推进,人民币资本项目开放的进程在不断加快,给中国商业银行带来严峻挑战的同时也带来了许多前所未有的机遇.本文在全面梳理人民币资本项目开放现状的基础上,对资本项目开放的路径进行了展望,并重点分析了资本项目开放带来的银行业务发展机遇,为推进我国商业银行转型发展提供借鉴.     

推进资本账户渐进有序开放

资本项目可兑换改革应为渐进式改革,在条件成熟的前提下,逐步推出不同阶段的改革措施,同时注重资本项目可兑换与宏观经济及汇率政策相配合我国金融改革和开放的核心内容包括利率市场化、汇率形成机制改革、资本账户开放等,当前应抓住有利时机,积极推进资本账户渐进、有序、适度开放,为人民币进一步国际化和国际收支趋向平衡创造条件。     

上海自贸区成立背景下人民币资本项目的开放与风险防范

当前,实现人民币资本项目的开放已然成为了一个不可逆转的趋势,是我国外汇管理体制进一步改革的必然路径。上海自贸区的建设对于人民币资本账户的开放将起到示范性的带头作用,为实现人民币国际化提供重要的经验参考。本文在自贸区金融改革试点成立背景下,探讨金融改革开放试点的意义,分析人民币资本项目开放现状,总结上海自贸区的成立对于人民币资本项目开放进程的推动作用,并对资本项目开放过程中的风险防范进行了研究。     

升值压力下人民币汇率制度选择

尽管国际上要求人民币升值的呼声很高，我国政府仍声明继续坚持人民币汇率稳定这一正确的政策。但应看到我国的固定汇率制已暴露出许多弊端。我国人民币汇率形成机制存在缺陷，僵化的汇率制度制约了货币政策的独立性。在金融开放条件下，我国应实行以市场供求为基础的浮动汇率制，逐步推进人民币资本项目可兑换，加快利率市场化改革，改革结售汇制度，进一步完善人民币汇率形成机制。     

tay's as good as cay

The empirical evidence that the consumption–wealth ratio, cay, has strong in-sample predictive power for future stock returns has been interpreted as evidence that consumers take account of future investment opportunities in planning their consumption expenditures. In this paper we show that the predictive power of cay arises mainly from a “look-ahead bias” introduced by estimating the parameters of the cointegrating regression between consumption, assets, and labor income in-sample. When a similar regression is run, replacing the log of consumption with an inanimate variable, calendar time, the resulting residual, which we label tay, is shown to be able to forecast stock returns as well as, or better than, cay. In addition, both cay and tay lose their out-of-sample forecasting power when they are re-estimated every period with only available data.     

上善若水工行人

28年的风雨兼程,她由小变大;28年的千锤百炼,她由弱变强;28年的栉风沐雨,铭刻着几代工行人艰苦奋斗、拼搏进取的缩影,他们在平凡的岗位上,传承敢于承担、乐于奉献,兢兢业业、奋勇争先的精神,创造了一个又一个金灿灿、沉旬甸的硕果。     

当亿万富豪，思想和行动一样远

创业板在金融风暴的2009年启动,正好见证了中国十多年来创业投资的风雨历程,而资本市场A就的A多中国亿万富豪,也极好地证明了实体经济与资本市场相结合确实是国家、企业和个人发达致富的A要之路。本文提出要敢于提出大目标,以“反推法”设计实施A目标的路线图,高屋建瓴而又脚踏实地,则中国广大创业者的亿万富豪之梦并非遥不可及     

Strategy as revolution

How often does the strategic-planning process start with senior executives asking what the rest of the organization can teach them about the future? Not often enough, argues Gary Hamel. In many companies, strategy making is an elitist procedure and ?strategy? consists of nothing more than following the industry's rules. But more and more companies, intent on overturning the industrial order, are rewriting those rules. What can industry incumbents do? Either surrender the future to revolutionary challengers or revolutionize the way their companies create strategy. What is needed is not a tweak to the traditional strategic-planning process, Hamel says, but a new philosophical foundation: strategy is revolution. Hamel offers ten principles to help a company think about the challenge of creating truly revolutionary strategies. Perhaps the most fundamental principle is that so-called strategic planning doesn't produce true strategic innovation. The traditional planning process is little more than a rote procedure in which deeply held assumptions and industry conventions are reinforced rather than challenged. Such a process harnesses only a tiny proportion of an organization's creative potential. If there is to be any hope of industry revolution, senior managers must give up their monopoly on the creation of strategy. They must embrace a truly democratic process that can give voice to the revolutionaries that exist in every company. If senior managers are unwilling to do this, employees must become strategy activists. The opportunities for industry revolution are mostly unexplored. One thing is certain: if you don't let the revolutionaries challenge you from within, they will eventually challenge you from without--in the marketplace.     

Sustainability as Adaptability

Most corporations now view sustainability as a key requirement for competitive advantage, but few claim to have achieved it. One of the key obstacles separating intention from execution is that the sustainability frameworks employed by companies tend to be insufficiently clear, precise, or comprehensive to guide decision making. One of the most pressing challenges for corporate leaders today is, of course, to sustain the economic viability of the core businesses. But given the implicit “beyond business” focus of most sustainability efforts, corporate executives would be better served by a more integrated, holistic framework—one that enables them to make tradeoffs among the economic, social, and ecological aspects of business. This article introduces such a framework—one that redefines sustainability as the ability of companies to adapt to change in three different spheres of operation—ecological, social, and economic—with a near‐term as well as a longer‐term planning horizon. Without such adaptation, business models become obsolete for reasons that can range from economic failure, to competitive inferiority, to social or ecological limits. This ability to adapt can be measured and valued by using the BCG Adaptive Advantage Index, a composite measure of corporate performance during market downturns. The BCG analysis also shows that although the most adaptive companies tend to report lower profits and have lower values during periods of relative stability, such companies perform consistently better over full cycles. Creating social and ecological value alone doesn't automatically confer economic rewards, but—with the right business model and capabilities—it can. The authors explore some of the business model archetypes that successfully achieve this “co‐optimization.”     

Money as stock

The fiscal theory determines the price level from the value of nominal government debt as a claim to government primary surpluses, just as private stock is valued as a claim to corporate profits. Valuation equations are not constraints, so this theory does not mistreat the government's intertemporal budget constraint. I anchor the analysis in a simple cash in advance model. When money demand falls to zero, I show that the price level can still be determined by the government debt valuation equation.     

Strategy as ecology

Microsoft's and Wal-Mart's preeminence in modern business has been attributed to any number of factors--from the vision and drive of their founders to the companies' aggressive competitive practices. But the authors maintain that the success realized by these two very different companies is due only partly to the organizations themselves; a bigger factor is the success of the networks of companies with which Microsoft and Wal-Mart do business. Most companies today inhabit ecosystems--loose networks of suppliers, distributors, and outsourcers; makers of related products or services; providers of relevant technology; and other organizations that affect, and are affected by, the creation and delivery of a company's own offering. Despite being increasingly central to modern business, ecosystems are still poorly understood and even more poorly managed. The analogy between business networks and biological ecosystems can aid this understanding by vividly highlighting certain pivotal concepts. The moves that a company makes will, to varying degrees, affect the health of its business network, which in turn will ultimately affect the organization's performance--for ill as well as for good. Because a company, like an individual species in a biological ecosystem, ultimately shares its fate with the network as a whole, smart firms pursue strategies that will benefit everyone. So how can you promote the health and the stability of your own ecosystem, determine your place in it, and develop a strategy to match your role, thereby helping to ensure your company's well-being? It depends on your role--current and potential--within the network. Is your company a niche player, a keystone, or a dominator? The answer to this question may be different for different parts of your business. It may also change as your ecosystem changes. Knowing what to do requires understanding the ecosystem and your organization's role in it.     

Diversity as strategy

IBM's turnaround in the last decade is an impressive and well-documented business story. But behind that success is a less told people story, which explains how the corporation dramatically altered its already diverse composition and created millions of dollars in new business. By the time Lou Gerstner took the helm in 1993, IBM had a long history of progressive management when it came to civil rights and equal-opportunity employment. But Gerstner felt IBM wasn't taking full advantage of a diverse market for talent, nor was it maximizing the potential of its diverse customer and employee base. So in 1995, he launched a diversity task force initiative to uncover and understand differences among people within the organization and find ways to appeal to an even broader set of employees and customers. Gerstner established a task force for each of eight constituencies: Asians; blacks; the gay, lesbian, bisexual, transgendered community; Hispanics; white men; Native Americans; people with disabilities; and women. He asked the task forces to research four questions: What does your constituency need to feel welcome and valued at IBM? What can the corporation do, in partnership with your group, to maximize your constituency's productivity? What can the corporation do to influence your constituency's buying decisions so that IBM is seen as a preferred solution provider? And with which external organizations should IBM form relationships to better understand the needs of your constituency? The answers to these questions became the basis for IBM's diversity strategy. Thomas stresses that four factors are key to implementing any major change initiative: strong support from company leaders, an employee base that is fully engaged with the initiative, management practices that are integrated and aligned with the effort, and a strong and well-articulated business case for action. All four elements have helped IBM make diversity a key corporate strategy tied to real growth.     

尽快调整外汇储备的投资组合

中国外汇储备走势越来越为人们所关注，《国际融资》记者就有关外汇储备投资、外汇储备如何内用等热点话题采访了美国耶鲁大学金融学教授陈志武。