Dynamic Efficiency in the East European Emerging Markets

The paper re-investigates the efficiency of the East European emerging markets of the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Russia analyzed by Rockinger and Urga (2000, 2001) based on the data from September, 1995 through December, 2004. We propose a first-order autoregressive (AR (1)) type time varying parameter model with a non-stochastic linear time trend including the random walk (RW) type model as a special case. The observed data rejects the RW type model for the AR (1) type one. The markets exhibit dynamic efficiency for all the four countries in the sense that the linear time trend approaches to zero over time. The empirical result for the Russian markets differs from that of Rockinger and Urga (2000). JEL Classifications: G14, G15     

Emerging powers as fact and metaphor: Some European ideas

Emerging powers appear to be rather diverse although some of them, like China and India, are mapping the world. They can be countries or regions, social scapes and flows, economic networks or global cities. They emerge after several decades of global flexible capitalism and the rise of regional networks and city-states. In order to meet contemporary challenges, emerging powers need the experience of coherence of older homogeneities as well as the complexities of extended, differentiated societies and social structures. This new step in recent globalization has to be mediated and understood. The European cultural memory of conflict, mediation and negotiation may enable Europeans to let emerging powers grow beyond the world of traditional empires and their global economies, beyond the worlds of nation-states and their international economy, and beyond the world of liberal empires and their global economy. This reflexivity and complexity may enable the social sciences to play an important public role, which they have not had for many decades, if they understand their moment.     

The Emerging Role of the European Commission in Merger and Acquisition Monitoring: The Boeing–McDonnell Douglas Case

The object of this study is to evaluate the consequences of the application of the EEC Regulation 4064/89 to non–European companies. We focus on the Boeing–McDonnell Douglas merger case, one of the first non–European mergers considered by the Commission. The analysis of abnormal returns on the two securities shows that the threat of a ban of the merger by the Commission were not perceived as credible at first. But when Boeing decided to ask the support of the American government, just after the decision of the European Commission to extend its investigations to the long term exclusivity contracts, the role of the Commission emerged.     

Time to equilibrium in exchange rates: G-10 and Eastern European economies

This paper reports different times-to-equilibrium for G-10 developed economies and the Eastern European emerging economies. By applying a novel method of value-weighted index to highly-trade-linked economies, we test the purchasing power parity to the full length of time-to-equilibrium. The times-to-equilibrium obtained are: 6 years for developed and 2 years for emerging economies. These results are consistent with the sticky price hypothesis: economies trading in highly aggregated capital goods take longer time to reach price equilibrium in the face of overshooting exchange rates: the opposite is true for primary exporters. This finding is new for these two groups, and could be compared usefully with the earlier reports of long half-life for developed countries. Also, our method of measurement establishes the actual time of the theory prediction on price-to-currency relationship. It is possible to apply this methodology to study more groups of countries.     

商业银行同业业务信用风险时滞性研究:基于监管视角

在当前传统信贷业务增速放缓、不良率高企、利润下滑的背景下,商业银行将重点转向了低成本、低资本要求的同业、投资类业务,形成了一系列以发放贷款、逃避监管为实质目的,以跨银行、证券、保险、信托等多类型金融机构为表现形式的业务模式。创新型业务模式为商业银行带来效益的同时也造成了业务风险的交织叠加,防范化解此类风险成为亟待解决的重点问题。目前,针对同业业务发展与风险的研究大多集中于操作风险、市场风险及流动性风险,而对新型同业业务的风险本质及其与基础资产的关系问题则较少涉及。本文以山东辖内商业银行的同业业务为研究对象,运用VAR模型测算各项贷款信贷质量对同业业务资产质量的影响效应。结果表明,各项贷款的信贷质量对同业业务资产质量的影响具有时滞性。本文据此建议,应及时捕捉同业业务的实质性风险,从基础资产入手寻找同业业务的演化路径,控制关键因素,以抑制银行类信贷业务的非理性扩张冲动,促进同业业务的规范发展。     

新兴市场金融脆弱性:基于国际资本易变性的分析

随着国际资本流动规模的日益庞大,其易变性的破坏力也越来越大,而且在新兴市场国家表现得尤为强烈,这加剧了新兴市场国家金融脆弱性。国际资本易变性从冲击货币稳定、影响国际收支的可维持性以及国际游资对金融市场的高度投机三个方面加剧了新兴市场金融脆弱性。它在新兴市场表现尤为强烈的原因在于新兴市场的不稳定性和不成熟性。     

Convergence of Bank Efficiency in Emerging Markets: The Experience of Central and Eastern European Countries

In this study, we investigate the effect of the European Union integration process on banks' efficiency and the convergence of cost efficiency across banking systems from Central and Eastern European countries for the period 2004-10. We observe large differences in the levels of cost efficiency among national banking systems, and we notice an increase in banking efficiency for all banking systems until 2008. However, starting with 2009, the evolution of the average scores of cost efficiency declines. The results provide evidence of β-convergence and σ-convergence in terms of cost efficiency among the banking systems, especially during the period 2009-10.     

The Use of Computers in Accountancy Courses: A New Perspective

Bhaskar (1982, 1983) proposed a list of 26 topics, classified under three categories (computer science, computer as a computational tool, computer-aided instruction), for the use of computers in accountancy courses. This scheme is argued to be confusing, as some topics are classified wrongly, and is replaced by a new seven-category scheme. Among other things, computer-aided instruction is found to have doubtful value as judged from the collected experimental evidences. An important question is raised as to the necessity and desirability of the use of computers in accountancy courses. It is argued that not all topics proposed by Bhaskar are absolutely necessary, and that his list contains disturbing omissions and unrealistic expectations of accounting students' time. A new list of necessary computing topics is proposed. Each topic requires 2–3 hours of terminal time during a supervised laboratory session, and can be incorporated easily into existing accounting curricula. It is felt that a postgraduate diploma should be introduced for accounting graduates to cover the ever expanding fields of computer science, artificial intelligence, information systems, and their utilisation in accountancy. Finally, in the light of the Japanese fifth generation project, it is argued that the computer should be viewed as the accountant's intelligent assistant rather than merely as a computational tool.     

Governmental Accounting in Spain and the European Monetary Union: A Critical Perspective

During the last twenty-five years, the changes in Spanish accounting have been radical and significant, especially since 1986 when Spain joined the European Union. Those changes were first introduced in business accounting, following the patterns of the Fourth Directive, but governmental accounting has also been affected by structural reforms that have modified the financial reporting system, the accounting standards and the accounting principles to be applied. However, the governmental accounting system needs further improvement, particularly given the EMU framework and the relationship between governmental accounting and national accounting.     

金融监管登高望远趁时好

编者按:亚洲金融危机本能地加强了行政控制,弱化管制的金融自由化政策主张在理论上受到了谨慎性的批评,改革计划控制或金融管制的步伐更为慎重了.     

Inflation,Output Growth,and Their Uncertainties: Empirical Evidence for a Causal Relationship from European Emerging Economies

In this paper, we analyze the causality among inflation, output growth, and their uncertainties in all European countries with emerging economies. For these countries, high uncertainty regarding economic growth during the current economic and financial crisis that started in 2008 caused their governments to increase their efforts to sustain growth, and to maintain a low level of inflation. Of the twelve possible hypotheses regarding the causal relationships among inflation, output growth, and their uncertainties, we consider five relationships for which we find strong theoretical arguments and empirical evidence in the literature. The empirical evidence strongly supports the Friedman-Ball hypothesis that inflation Granger-causes inflation uncertainty. For the other four tested hypotheses, fewer significant causal relationships are obtained.     

马耳他:中国企业拓展欧洲市场的一站

记者:卓嘉鹰先生,请您简单介绍一下马耳他,马耳他的优势主要体现在哪些方面? 卓嘉鹰:马耳他是一个岛国,所以听到马耳他的名字不要浮想在其他国家看到的高楼大厦、铁路及大型基础设施建设等.马尔他是一个贸易中心,几千年来都是如此.当时有中东的民族来到马尔他,进入到这个小岛,马尔他就成为了一个贸易的集散地,促使非洲或者是南欧的国家在那里进行一些贸易往来活动,至今都是如此.     

宏观谨慎监管下新兴市场国家的选择——基于全球金融发展非对称视角的观察

宏观谨慎监管是金融危机后得到重视的一种新型监管理念.然而,我们的研究发现,该监管理念主要囿于信贷扩张与收缩的周期性技术特性的分析,完全忽略了新兴市场经济国家金融深化和世界经济多极化发展的时代特征.鉴此,我们从非对称性的角度对现行国际金融体系进行了分析,进而提出,宏观谨慎监管应当考虑作为新增长极发展中国家金融改革与发展的现实需要,充分反映当今国际金融体系动态发展的多极化诉求.     

Gender, Time Use, and Change: The Impact of the Cut Flower Industry in Ecuador

This article uses survey data from Ecuador to examine the effectsof women's employment on the allocation of paid and unpaid laborwithin the household. I compare a region with high demand forfemale labor with a similar region in which demand for femalelabor is low. The comparison suggests that market labor opportunitiesfor women have no effect on women's total time in labor butincrease men's time in unpaid labor. The increase in men's timein unpaid work reflects women's increased bargaining power inthe home.     

Some Nonlinear Threshold Autoregressive Time Series Models for Actuarial Use

Abstract

This paper introduces nonlinear threshold time series modeling techniques that actuaries can use in pricing insurance products, analyzing the results of experience studies, and forecasting actuarial assumptions. Basic “self-exciting” threshold autoregressive (SETAR) models, as well as heteroscedastic and multivariate SETAR processes, are discussed. Modeling techniques for each class of models are illustrated through actuarial examples. The methods that are described in this paper have the advantage of being direct and transparent. The sequential and iterative steps of tentative specification, estimation, and diagnostic checking parallel those of the orthodox Box-Jenkins approach for univariate time series analysis.     

Comparability in IPSASs: Lessons to be Learned for the European Standards

Abstract

In 2013 the European Commission started addressing issues concerning public sector accounting harmonization across EU Member States, embarking on a project to develop European Public Sector Accounting Standards (EPSASs). Although acknowledging the indisputable reference of the existing International Public Sector Accounting Standards (IPSASs), it highlighted that IPSASs, as they were, could not be suitably applied in the EU context (European Commission, 2013a). IPSASs were considered as not covering specific important matters of public sector accounting, not showing enough stability due to the need of constant convergence with IFRSs, and offering several options that compromised comparability.

Comparability of public sector accounts across Member States is one of the main objectives of EPSASs (EUROSTAT, 2016, 2019), clearly established as a qualitative characteristic in the draft EPSAS Conceptual Framework (EUROSTAT, 2018). It is critical for EU economic and fiscal convergence that countries’ accounts allow for substantial comparison and standardized transition to the National Accounts (Jorge et al., 2014).

The IPSAS Conceptual Framework (IPSASB, 2014), meanwhile issued, sustains that adopting these standards would improve comparability of General Purpose Financial Reporting (GPFR), in this way strengthening transparency and accountability of public sector finance.

Given that, despite the above concerns, EPSASs are to be developed on the basis of IPSASs (European Commission, 2019), the purpose of this paper is to show that IPSASs are not an adequate reference for EPSASs in terms of allowing the desired comparability of countries’ accounts in the EU. It relies on evidence gathered from IPSAS-based financial reports prepared by some Agencies of the United Nations System and from audit reports of the UN Board of Auditors.

The research illustrates that IPSASs only allow for de jure comparability of financial reports at a very broad level. Their implementation and interpretation in practice (due to the options permitted and the judgement required) does not allow for de facto comparable GPFR. European standard-setters need to be aware that the comparability EPSASs need to address across EU Member States’ accounts must go beyond the one that is permitted by IPSASs – EPSASs need to stretch IPSASs harmonization to a higher level of standardization.