Investment opportunities and Irish equity offerings

Numerous empirical studies confirm that the stock market reacts negatively to the announcement of an equity issue. Yet some seasoned offerings occasion a positive market response. Studies investigating the differentiation of positive from negative responses should contribute to our understanding of both market and firm behaviour. In addition, few studies to date have examined market responses in other institutional and/or geographical settings. A sample of 95 open offerings by Irish firms between 1987 and 1994 is investigated and, surprisingly, a neutral market response is discovered. The hypothesis that a positive market response is due to a firm's growth opportunities is tested. The intuition underlying this growth opportunity hypothesis is that investors perceive the potential gain in growth opportunities and willingly fund such investments. The Irish evidence supports this hypothesis. It is conjectured that the lack of a long-term debt market in Ireland may explain these results.     

2014年5月国内金融形势评述

2014年5月国内金融运行的主要特点是：广义货币M2增速连续回升,狭义货币增速维持低位;人民币贷款和债券融资较为活跃,拉动社会融资规模明显高于去年同期;人民币贷款投放显著增加,中长期贷款增长继续加快;企业存款增速低位小幅回升,居民储蓄存款增速继续减缓;银行间市场交易活跃度明显上升,市场利率有所回落;与上月末比,人民币汇率贬值0．2％,海外市场对人民币汇率的贬值预期有所下降。     

2014年10月国内金融形势评述

2014年10月国内金融运行的主要特点是：广义货币和狭义货币增速均有所下降;社会融资规模明显回落,直接融资保持活跃;人民币贷款环比少增较多;企业存款增长继续回落,居民储蓄存款增速上升;银行间市场成交活跃,市场利率有所下降;人民币汇率比上月末升值0．104％,海外市场对人民币汇率的贬值预期有所减勇弓。     

2013年1月国内金融形势评述

2013年1月份,受假日等因素影响,当月金融运行多项指标有所波动。主要特点是：广义货币和狭义货币增速明显上升;各类融资活跃,社会融资规模创月度历史新高;贷款投放同比多增较多,住户部门信贷需求显著增强;企业存款增速大幅上升,储蓄存款增速有所回落;银行间市场交易活跃,市场利率回落,流动性较为充裕;与上年末比,月末人民币汇率升值0．10％,海外市场对人民币汇率的贬值预期有所减弱。     

2012年中国票据市场运行情况与2013年前景展望

2012年,中国票据市场总体平稳运行,金融机构开展票据业务的积极性有所提高,主要特点是：票据承兑量持续扩张,票据融资规模平稳小幅增长;票据转贴现市场活跃,票据回购市场复苏,逆回购交易受到市场青睐;票据交易利率波动下行后回升。监管部大合规监管力度以规范票据业务集约有序发展,金融机构为适应未来经营环境变化需注重票据业务经营模式的转型。展望市场前景,预计票据袖资需求将保持增长,市场交易会进一步活跃,票据利率将在波动中运行,经营主体在竞争中合作与合规化经营趋势将不断加强。     

我国商业银行结构、效率与绩效关系研究

本文利用我国12家商业银行2003-2006年的样本数据,对我国银行业的经济效率和规模效率、市场结构、市场绩效,以及市场结构、效率与绩效三者关系做了理论分析与实证检验。结论是:我国银行业的经济效率和规模效率逐步提高,市场结构状况明显改良,竞争程度加剧;改制上市后的银行绩效显著改善。但是关于银行业的结构、效率与绩效关系的"传统的SCP假说"、"相对市场力量假说"、"X效率结构假说"、"规模效率结构假说"在我国均不成立。     

中国票据市场2014年以来运行特点分析与展望

2014年上半年中国票据市场的主要运行特点是：票据承兑和贴现余额小幅增长;市场利率呈下跌走势,但仍高于上年同期水平;票据交易保持活跃,报价结构发生变化;电票业务增长趋缓。在此基础上,文章对下半年票据市场规模和利率的可能走势进行了展望,并分析了近期一些政策新规和金融创新对票据市场发展的影响。     

Trading based on forecasts of earnings per share: A test of the efficient market hypothesis

In this paper the semi-strong form of the efficient market hypothesis is tested with a trading rule based on Box-Jenkins forecasts of earnings per share numbers. The quarterly earnings per share series are modeled for a number of firms. The models are updated quarter by quarter and investments are made in the stocks with the largest forecasted growth rates for the next quarter. The risk-adjusted performance of such a strategy is shown to be inconsistant with semi-strong market efficiency.     

Timing,earnings management and over-reaction around pure placings

This paper provides new evidence about firms conducting pure placings in the UK. It examines their abnormal performance (stock and operating), earnings management (accrual and real activities) and abnormal growth prospects for up to three years surrounding the event. It questions whether (i) timing, (ii) earnings management and/or (iii) over-reaction hypotheses can explain these performance, earnings quality and growth paths. The results document that pure placing firms have high earnings quality and abnormally high growth opportunities at the announcement. For this reason, the market is overenthusiastic. It expects more than what is eventually fulfilled, in line with the over-reaction hypothesis. Weak evidence that placing firms may exploit market timing is noted, whilst there is no supportive evidence of earnings management. These findings distinguish the earnings quality and growth opportunities of pure placing firms from that of firms conducting open offers, firm commitment offers and other seasoned equity offerings (SEO) that are not private placements, for which prior evidence reports mainly timing and/or earnings management prior to the event. This paper facilitates a better understanding of UK SEO.     

2013年8腘内金融形势评述

2013年8月国内金融运行的主要特点是：广义货币和狭义货币增速连续两个月回升;社会融资规模由连续四个月环比回落转为大幅回升;人民币贷款投放平稳,中长期贷款增速继续回升;企业存款增速明显回升,居民储蓄存款回流;银行间市场成交活跃度有所回升,市场利率环比继续回落;与上月末比,人民币汇率升值0．13％,海外市场对人民币汇率的贬值预期继续有所降低。     

2014年11月国内金融形势评述

2014年11月国内金融运行的主要特点是：广义货币和狭义货币增速均有所下降;人民币贷款增加较多拉动当月社会融资规模环比明显回升;当月人民币贷款同比环比均增加较多;企业存款增长略有回升,居民储蓄存款增速回落;银行间市场成交活跃,市场利率较上月有所上升;人民币汇率比上月末微升0．189％,海外市场对人民币汇率的贬值预期有所增强。     

2013年2月国内金融形势评述

2013年2月金融运行的主要特点是：广义货币和狭义货币增速比上月末双双回落；社会融资规模明显低于上月水平；贷款投放有所放缓，中长期贷款需求明显回升；企业存款增速有所回落，居民储蓄意愿继续增强；银行间市场交易活跃，市场利率有所回升；与上月末比，月末人民币汇率升值0．03％，海外市场对人民币汇率的贬值预期有所增加。     

Are N+1 heads better than one? The timing and selectivity of Australian-managed investment funds

Many studies find that mutual funds exhibit differential and persistent performance. This differential performance could arise from superior managerial decisions regarding security selection, market timing, or both. We directly test security selection and market timing ability using opposing decision-making models, the classical and behavioural decision-making theories. Empirical results are consistent with the classical decision-making theory and the efficient market hypothesis (EMH).     

2012年11月国内金融形势评述

2012年11月国内金融运行的主要特点是：货币供应量增速连续两个月回落;前11个月社会融资规模14．15万亿元,创历史最高水平;贷款投放连续两个月同比少增,住户贷款需求持续明显回升;企业存款增速继续放缓,储蓄存款增速平稳;银行间市场交易活跃,市场利率继续小幅回落;与上月末比,月末人民币汇率升值0．17％,海外市场对人民币汇率的贬值预期继续降低。     

Are Investors Concerned with Stock Market Upgrades? Evidence from Multivariate Framework Analysis

This study aims to examine the return and volatility responses to the announcement of stock market upgrades. It measures the direct effects of the recent Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) upgrade of the Qatar, Dubai, and Abu Dhabi stock exchanges from frontier to emerging markets by applying a nontraditional dummy variable event study using multivariate BEKK and DCC GARCH models. The results show clear evidence that contradicts the free information hypothesis and supports the price pressure hypothesis. Initially, the MSCI upgrade led to positive feedback from active investors due to the belief that this announcement will attract foreign institutional investors who play a vital role in improving the market’s performance.     

2014年7月国内金融形势评述

2014年7月国内金融运行的主要特点是：广义货币和狭义货币增速双双回落;社会融资规模明显少于上月和去年同期;人民币贷款投放显著减少;企业存款增速回落较多,居民储蓄存款明显分流;银行间市场成交活跃,市场利率有所上升;与上月末比,人民币汇率贬值0．24％,海外市场对人民币汇率的贬值预期有所上升。     

2012年2月国内金融形势评述

2012年2月金融运行的主要特点是：各层次货币供应量增速均有所回升；贷款投放额明显多于上年同期，主要是短期贷款和票据融资多增较多；人民币存款增加较多，增速回升；银行间市场交易活跃，市场利率显著回落；与上月末比，人民币汇率升值0．31％，海外市场对人民币汇率升值预期有所减弱。     

Open‐Market Stock Repurchases by Insurance Companies and Signaling

The signaling hypothesis of share repurchases implies that management uses repurchases to signal either that their firm's future operating performance will improve or that shares of their stock are simply underpriced by the market. This study examines which of the two interpretations can better explain open‐market share repurchase programs announced by insurance companies. We find no evidence that future‐operating performance of insurers improves following the repurchase announcement. In addition, changes in future operating performance cannot explain the announcement‐period abnormal return. Instead, the stock undervaluation prior to the repurchase announcement can significantly explain the announcement‐period abnormal return, particularly for life insurers. Overall, our results suggest that the positive market reaction to insurers’ open‐market share repurchase announcements is due to the stock undervaluation by the market, but not due to positive information content about future operating performance conveyed in the repurchase announcement.     

Attribution of investment performance: an analysis of Australian pooled superannuation funds*

This paper evaluates the market timing and security selection capabilities of Australian pooled superannuation funds over the eight‐year period from January 1991 to December 1998. Evaluation of both components of investment performance is surprisingly scarce in the Australian literature despite active investment managers engaging in both market timing and security selection. The paper also evaluates performance for the three largest asset classes within diversified superannuation funds and their contribution to overall portfolio return. The importance of an accurately specified market portfolio proxy in the measurement of investment performance is demonstrated. This paper employs performance benchmarks that account for the multi‐sector investment decisions of active investment managers in a manner that is consistent with their unique investment strategy. Consistent with U.S. literature, the empirical results indicate that Australian pooled superannuation funds do not exhibit significantly positive security selection or market timing skill.     

Attribution of investment performance: an analysis of Australian pooled superannuation funds*

This paper evaluates the market timing and security selection capabilities of Australian pooled superannuation funds over the eight‐year period from January 1991 to December 1998. Evaluation of both components of investment performance is surprisingly scarce in the Australian literature despite active investment managers engaging in both market timing and security selection. The paper also evaluates performance for the three largest asset classes within diversified superannuation funds and their contribution to overall portfolio return. The importance of an accurately specified market portfolio proxy in the measurement of investment performance is demonstrated. This paper employs performance benchmarks that account for the multi‐sector investment decisions of active investment managers in a manner that is consistent with their unique investment strategy. Consistent with U.S. literature, the empirical results indicate that Australian pooled superannuation funds do not exhibit significantly positive security selection or market timing skill.