Foreclosure Contagion and the Neighborhood Spillover Effects of Mortgage Defaults

In this paper, I identify shocks to interest rates resulting from two administrative details in adjustable‐rate mortgage contract terms: the choice of financial index and the choice of lookback period. I find that a 1 percentage point increase in interest rate at the time of adjustable‐rate mortgage (ARM) reset results in a 2.5 percentage increase in the probability of foreclosure in the following year, and that each foreclosure filing leads to an additional 0.3 to 0.6 completed foreclosures within a 0.10‐mile radius. In explaining this result, I emphasize price effects, bank‐supply responses, and borrower responses arising from peer effects.     

Effects of Bankruptcy Exemptions and Foreclosure Laws on Mortgage Default and Foreclosure Rates

This study analyzes the effects of state bankruptcy asset exemptions and foreclosure laws on mortgage default and foreclosure rates across different segments of the mortgage market. We found that the effects of these legal provisions are larger for subprime than for prime mortgages and larger for adjustable rate mortgages than for fixed rate mortgages. These results demonstrate that the effect of variation in bankruptcy exemptions and foreclosure laws is most pronounced in the most risky segments of the mortgage market, which are those that have been most affected by the continuing housing slump in the United States.     

The Hazard Rates of First and Second Defaults

This article examines hazards of repeated mortgage default, conditional on reinstating out of an initial default episode. Results indicate that subsequent default risk for reinstated borrowers is significantly greater than the risk of first default, especially during the first two years after a default episode. In addition, economic factors helpful in predicting first defaults are not helpful in predicting subsequent default episodes. This has important implications for mortgage investors and servicers as industry foreclosure avoidance efforts intensify.     

GSEs,Mortgage Rates,and the Long-Run Effects of Mortgage Securitization

Our paper compares mortgage securitization undertaken by government-sponsored enterprises (GSEs) with that undertaken by private firms, with an emphasis on how each type of mortgage securitization affects mortgage rates. We build a model illustrating that market structure, government sponsorship, and the characteristics of the mortgages securitized are all important determinants of mortgage rates. We find that GSEs generally—but not always—lower mortgage rates, particularly when the GSEs behave competitively, because the GSEs implicit government backing allows them to sell securities without the credit enhancements needed in the private sector. Using our simulation model, we demonstrate that when mortgages eligible for purchase by the GSEs have characteristics similar to other mortgages, the GSEs implicit government-backing generates differences in mortgage rates similar to those currently observed in the mortgage market (which range between zero and fifty basis points). However, if the mortgages purchased by GSEs are less costly to originate and securitize, and if the GSEs behave competitively, then the simulated spread in mortgage rates can be much larger than that observed in the data.     

电子支付对现金支付的替代效应研究

本文主要研究电子支付对现金支付的替代效应.首先将我国的电子支付划分为两大类,即银行卡支付和第三方支付,在此基础上建立向量误差修正模型(VECM),并进行脉冲响应分析和方差分解,分别分析银行卡支付和第三方支付对现金需求的替代效应,最终得出结论,并提出针对性建议:加强数据采集,完善数据共享机制,建设全面的支付货币统计体系;...     

资产证券化的宏观经济绩效:理论述评

2007年美国次贷危机爆发,并导致全球性金融危机和经济衰退。次贷危机本质上涉及资产证券化这种金融衍生品。本文对资产证券化宏观经济效应的现有文献进行归纳分析,文章认为,从微观层面看,资产证券化有利于提高金融效率;但从宏观层面看,资产证券化可能对金融体系结构、宏观经济稳定和货币政策有效性带来潜在冲击。政策当局应该重视资产证券化可能产生的宏观经济绩效,协调微观效率与宏观稳定之间的冲突,建立基于金融稳定的货币政策框架和宏观审慎监管体系。     

论资产证券化对商业银行的影响

资产证券化作为近20年来世界金融领域最重大和发展最快的金融创新和金融工具之一，目前已发展完善为商业银行降低资产负债表内风险的重要手段。本对资产证券产生的背景、作法，对商业银行的积极影响及存在的风险进行了阐述。     

资产证券化的信贷扩张效应研究

本文通过建立数理模型证明资产证券化具有信贷扩张效应,而这一效应为解决当前国内银行面临的资本充足率达标困难和资产负债期限错配的困境提供了冲击较小、成本较低的方法.同时,管理当局也必须清醒地意识到这一效应的负面影响,需要对证券化发展到高级阶段后可能引发的资产泡沫和不良贷款的迅速增加保持警醒并提前采取对策防范风险.     

Impact of Foreclosure Laws on Mortgage Loan Supply and Performance

The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics - This paper measures the impact of three types of defaulter-friendly foreclosure laws on the behaviors of mortgage lenders in loan origination, and...     

资产证券化与银行体系稳定性研究

本文基于美国主要银行资产证券化面板数据的回归模型和单因素联结模型,研究资产证券化对银行个体和系统性风险的影响。研究结果发现,对于银行个体而言,开展资产证券化业务并不会影响其稳定性,而持有证券化资产则会对其稳定性产生不利影响。对于银行系统而言,证券化资产在银行系统内和系统外不同的配置情况将导致不同的风险结果。市场上的过度证券化行为以及由资产证券化引起的银行间收益相关性的上升可能会导致较大的系统性风险。最后,本文基于美国的研究结果对我国银行开展资产证券化业务提出相应的对策建议。     

外商直接投资收益对国际收支的影响

文章认为,当前的外商投资企业外方利润滞留境内存量呈现上升趋势,但是总量规模相对于国家1.53万亿美元左右的外汇储备来讲,仍处于适当可控的范围之内,可以考虑将外方利润留存监测纳入以企业为主体的外汇监管,建立相应的风险预警体系。     

Securitization and the dark side of diversification

Diversification by banks affects the systemic risk of the sector. Importantly, Wagner (2010) shows that linear diversification increases systemic risk. We consider the case of securitization, whereby loan portfolios are sliced into tranches with different seniority levels. We show that tranching offers nonlinear diversification strategies, which can reduce the failure risk of individual institutions beyond the minimum level attainable by linear diversification without increasing systemic risk.     

Modeling and Pricing Longevity Derivatives Using Stochastic Mortality Rates and the Esscher Transform

The Lee-Carter mortality model provides a structure for stochastically modeling mortality rates incorporating both time (year) and age mortality dynamics. Their model is constructed by modeling the mortality rate as a function of both an age and a year effect. Recently the MBMM model (Mitchell et al. 2013) showed the Lee Carter model can be improved by fitting with the growth rates of mortality rates over time and age rather than the mortality rates themselves. The MBMM modification of the Lee-Carter model performs better than the original and many of the subsequent variants. In order to model the mortality rate under the martingale measure and to apply it for pricing the longevity derivatives, we adapt the MBMM structure and introduce a Lévy stochastic process with a normal inverse Gaussian (NIG) distribution in our model. The model has two advantages in addition to better fit: first, it can mimic the jumps in the mortality rates since the NIG distribution is fat-tailed with high kurtosis, and, second, this mortality model lends itself to pricing of longevity derivatives based on the assumed mortality model. Using the Esscher transformation we show how to find a related martingale measure, allowing martingale pricing for mortality/longevity risk–related derivatives. Finally, we apply our model to pricing a q-forward longevity derivative utilizing the structure proposed by Life and Longevity Markets Association.     

支付系统发展对货币政策操作效果的影响

在以货币供给量为中介目标的情况下,支付系统发展提高了公开市场操作投放或回笼基础货币的效率,增加了货币乘数及货币流通速度。为达到相同的货币供给量目标,支付系统运行效率越高,公开市场操作投放(或回笼)的基础货币可越少。此外,支付系统的发展提高了资金周转效率,增加了银行体系的流动性,支付系统发展将弱化法定存款准备金率提高的效果。本文还探讨了支付系统发展对以利率为中介目标的货币政策操作效果的影响。     

谈我国信贷资产证券化问题

资产证券化是世界金融领域最重大的创新之一,在发达国家得到了发展和完善。我国信贷资产证券化受各种法规、制度、市场等条件约束,要发展信贷资产证券化,应根据市场的发展情况,分阶段、逐步地改善资产证券化的法律和制度环境,提高政策透明度,规范资本市场,降低资产证券化的不确定性和交易成本,推动资本市场的发展。     

金融消费者公平交易权法律保障机制:信用卡滞纳金违宪案

近日,某法院做出了全国首例认定信用卡滞纳金违宪的司法判决,使金融消费者公平交易权问题再次成为热点。本文结合对该案例判词说理的分析,围绕信用卡金融消费阐释了金融消费者公平交易权的基本要义、发展现状和制度基础,并以银行业金融消费者公平交易权保护为主线,探讨分析了我国金融消费者公平交易权保障力度不足的主要原因,从立法、司法、行政监管、社会监督、行业自律和金融机构自我管理等方面提出了构建与完善我国金融消费者公平交易权法律保障机制的政策建议。     

The Impact of Default and Foreclosure on Housing Values: Rings Vs. Neighborhoods Approach

The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics - We use neighborhood boundaries, in addition to a concentric rings approach, to examine single family foreclosure spillover effects on residential...     

The Effect of Pricing on Demand and Revenue in Federal Reserve ACH Payment Processing

Because the automated clearinghouse (ACH) has been found to have lower social costs than paper checks, the Federal Reserve has been promoting more widespread use of ACH by lowering ACH processing fees. In this paper, we have obtained the first numerical estimates of ACH demand elasticities, a measure of the responsiveness of ACH demand to price changes. Various methods are employed to estimate the demand elasticities to determine how robust the estimates are. During the period 1985–1996, the Federal Reserve lowered the per-item price of interregional ACH, while the per-item price of intraregional ACH stayed constant. We take advantage of this unique pattern of historical price changes implemented by the Federal Reserve to estimate the effect of price changes on demand for ACH.We find that the volume of ACH processed by the Federal Reserve responds to changes in per-item fees, but the increase in volume that results from a price decline is very small and not statistically significantly different from 0, except in the case of debit origination. The results suggest that the Federal Reserve cannot expect to generate substantial additional volume by lowering its prices further. However, commercial banks may be able to increase the volume demanded by lowering their own ACH fees. We also examine how volume growth initiated by a price cut affects unit costs. Given the relatively large-scale economies found for ACH, volume growth leads to lower unit costs. However, to outweigh the revenues lost as a result of a price decline, ACH volume would have to increase by an amount much greater than our estimates indicate is likely. Consequently, a decline in per-item ACH fees likely would lead to lower net revenues.     

信贷资产证券化对银行业稳定性经营的影响

随着金融改革的不断深化,信贷资产证券化对于银行业的发展至关重要。选取我国16家上市银行面板数据为样本,分析我国银行业信贷资产证券化对银行稳定性经营的影响,为商业银行稳定性经营提供新的思路。研究表明,商业银行进行信贷资产证券化不仅可以降低银行的风险水平,而且可以提高银行的收益水平,从而达到稳定性经营的目的;同时,提出银行信贷资产证券化新常态的发展标准,为未来银行业发展提供新的思路。     

金融证券化与金融顺周期性

从金融发展的路径来看,经济货币化发展到一定阶段,便是金融证券化的蓬勃发展。在传统的金融体系中,银行信贷也是顺周期的,而金融证券化的蓬勃发展,则进一步放大了这种顺周期性。一方面,金融资产尤其是证券类金融资产总量的不断增加,使得金融市场的运行状况对于整个金融、经济运行起着越来越大的作用。另一方面,金融证券化的发展,对金融资产风险管理、金融体系流动性状况产生了重大影响,这些影响进一步促进了金融体系的顺周期性。因此,我们要将流动性管理的总量调节与健全宏观审慎政策框架结合起来,达到防范顺周期系统性风险积累的作用。