Leverage effect breakdowns and flight from risky assets

Though part of ‘market lore’, in 1976 Black first reported the inverse relationship between price and volatility, calling it the ‘leverage effect’. Without providing evidence, in 1988 Black claimed that in the months leading up to the October 1987 crash the relationship changed: price and volatility both rose. Using daily data for the Old VIX, derived from S&P 100 Index option market prices, to estimate intra-quarterly regressions of implied volatility against price from Q2 1986 to Q1 2012, the author verifies Black’s claim for the October 1987 crash, and interestingly, for subsequent periods of crisis. He then analyses several constant-elasticity-of-variance optimal portfolio rules, which include the leverage effect, to show the elasticity sign switch implies that investors reduce their risky asset holdings to zero.     

Divestments and financial distress in leveraged buyouts

This paper investigates the wealth effects of 134 divestments by 41 firms that underwent leveraged buyouts in the 1980s. Stock in these companies is privately owned. Bond returns for publicly traded debt are used to measure the wealth effects of the divestment announcement. These divestments are, on average, not associated with significant wealth effects for the full sample. However, firms that experience financial distress have negative and significant abnormal returns associated with their divestments, while returns in non-event months are insignificant. In contrast, non-distressed firms gain when asset sales are announced. The losses suffered by bondholders in distressed sellers are large and significant when core assets are divested. Bondholders in these firms do not suffer significant losses when non-core assets are divested. Finally, abnormal bond returns are related to the structure of the firms' post-buyout debt. Returns are negatively related to the use of private debt in the capital structure and positively related to the use of subordinated debt.     

Correlated leverage and its ramifications

This paper develops a theory in which housing prices, the capital structures of banks (mortgage lenders) and the capital structures of mortgage borrowers are all endogenously determined in equilibrium. There are four main results. First, leverage is a “positively correlated” phenomenon in that high leverage among borrowers is positively correlated with high leverage among banks, and higher house prices lead to higher leverage for both. The intuition is that first-time homebuyers with fixed wealth endowments must borrow more to buy more expensive homes, whereas higher current house prices rationally imply higher expected future house prices and therefore higher collateral values on bank loans, inducing banks to be more highly levered. Second, higher bank leverage leads to greater house price volatility in response to shocks to fundamental house values. Third, a bank’s exposure to credit risk depends not only on its own leverage but also on the leverage decisions of other banks. Fourth, positive fundamental shocks to house prices dilute financial intermediation by reducing banks’ pre-lending screening, and this reduction in bank screening further increases house prices. Empirical and policy implications of the analysis are drawn out, and empirical evidence is provided for the first two main results. The key policy implications are that greater geographic diversification by banks, tying mortgage tax exemptions to the duration of home ownership, and increasing bank capital requirements when borrower leverage is high can help reduce house price volatility.     

基金业绩排名与泡沫资产配置

基金在业绩排名压力下的泡沫资产配置行为会加剧市场波动、推升市场泡沫。本文基于事件研究法与固定效应模型研究了2013―2020年基金的重仓持股,发现:(1)基金在泡沫膨胀阶段显著超配了泡沫资产,而在泡沫破裂前后显著减配,展现了“泡沫骑乘者”的特征;(2)2015年前后,泡沫资产主要为小市值股票,2019―2020年,泡沫资产逐渐转为大市值“白马股”,且基金超配的程度显著提高,呈现抱团大盘白马股的特征;(3)排名前5%的赢家基金,以及1/3和1/10关键排名处的基金更激进地超配泡沫资产;(4)相邻排名基金的业绩差异越大,基金的泡沫资产配置行为越明显。综上表明,基金公司并不一定是天然的市场稳定器,监管层应密切关注业绩压力下基金超配泡沫资产的行为,投资者则应理性选择长期声誉较高的基金。     

Animal Spirits,Margin Requirements,and Stock Price Volatility

A simple overlapping generations model is used to characterize the effects of initial margin requirements on the volatility of risky asset prices. Investors are assumed to exhibit heterogeneous preferences for risk-bearing, the distribution of which evolves stochastically across generations. This framework is used to show that imposing a binding initial margin requirement may either increase or decrease stock price volatility, depending upon the microeconomic structure behind fluctuations in economy-wide average risk-bearing propensity. The ambiguous effect on volatility similarly arises when the source of heterogeneity is noise trader beliefs.     

Leveraged Lévy processes as models for stock prices

Adopting a constant elasticity of variance formulation in the context of a general Lévy process as the driving uncertainty we show that the presence of the leverage effect? ?One explanation of the documented negative relation between market volatilities and the level of asset prices (the ‘smile’ or ‘skew’), we term the ‘leverage effect’, argues that this negative relation reflects greater risk taking by the management, induced by a fall in the asset price, with a view of maximizing the option value of equity shareholders. in this form has the implication that asset price processes satisfy a scaling hypothesis. We develop forward partial integro-differential equations under a general Markovian setup, and show in two examples (both continuous and pure-jump Lévy) how to use them for option pricing when stock prices follow our leveraged Lévy processes. Using calibrated models we then show an example of simulation-based pricing and report on the adequacy of using leveraged Lévy models to value equity structured products.     

杠杆率如何影响资产价格？——来自中国债券市场自然实验的证据

杠杆周期理论表明,杠杆周期会影响金融体系的稳定性,资产的质押率(相应地,杠杆率)上升会提高资产价格;由于杠杆率一般是内生的,所以在实证上一直很难确立杠杆率与资产价格之间的因果关系。本文首次运用2017年1月到8月中国证券交易所债券市场和银行间债券市场的债券发行数据,利用中国银行间债券市场和交易所债券市场对同类债券的不同质押率规定的自然实验,对杠杆率与资产价格之间的因果关系进行了实证检验。结果表明,债券的可质押属性可以提高债券的价值,这验证了杠杆周期理论的预测,即杠杆率上升会使得资产价格上升。因此,杠杆率对资产价格有重要影响,是宏观审慎监管的一种工具,也应该成为货币政策的一种工具。     

What is the impact of wealth shocks on asset allocation?

I test the assumption of constant relative risk aversion using U.S. macroeconomic data and analyse the role of wealth shocks in generating transitory changes in asset portfolio composition. I show that the risky asset share exhibits cyclical behavior and it is significantly (and positively) affected by unexpected variation in wealth. Therefore, the empirical evidence suggests that risk aversion is counter-cyclical. I also find that the portfolio share of housing wealth falls when the agent is faced with a positive wealth shock, i.e. housing is a hedge against unfavorable wealth fluctuations. Finally, considering a variety of wealth definitions, the results show that: (i) wealth effects are stronger for direct holdings of risky assets than for indirect holdings, which highlights that investors do not typically trade some assets such as pension or mutual funds; (ii) although significant, wealth effects on asset allocation are mainly temporary as agents quickly rebalance the asset portfolio composition (i.e. there is weak evidence of inertia or slow adjustment in asset allocation); and (iii) changes in expected returns partially explain the variation in risky asset allocation.     

Portfolio choices and VaR constraint with a defaultable asset

We consider a Constant Elasticity of Variance (CEV) model for the asset price of a defaultable asset showing the so-called leverage effect (high volatility when the asset price is low). We show that a VaR constraint re-evaluated over time induces an agent more risk averse than a logarithmic utility to take more risk than in the unconstrained setting.     

Stock market volatility and equity returns: Evidence from a two-state Markov-switching model with regressors

This paper proposes a two-state Markov-switching model for stock market returns in which the state-dependent expected returns, their variance and associated regime-switching dynamics are allowed to respond to market information. More specifically, we apply this model to examine the explanatory and predictive power of price range and trading volume for return volatility. Our findings indicate that a negative relation between equity market returns and volatility prevails even after having controlled for the time-varying determinants of conditional volatility within each regime. We also find an asymmetry in the effect of price range on intra- and inter-regime return volatility. While price range has a stronger effect in the high volatility state, it appears to significantly affect only the transition probabilities when the stock market is in the low volatility state but not in the high volatility state. Finally, we provide evidence consistent with the ‘rebound’ model of asset returns proposed by Samuelson (1991), suggesting that long-horizon investors are expected to invest more in risky assets than short-horizon investors.     

Non‐operating earnings and firm risk*

We find that non‐operating earnings reduce total earnings volatility, stock price volatility, idiosyncratic risk, and crash risk. The risk‐reducing effects of non‐operating earnings are higher than those of operating earnings for risk measures based on stock market data. Non‐operating earnings serve to mitigate risks among firms with operating losses, high financial leverage, high growth uncertainty, and low‐ability managers.     

Optimal portfolios when volatility can jump

We consider an asset allocation problem in a continuous-time model with stochastic volatility and jumps in both the asset price and its volatility. First, we derive the optimal portfolio for an investor with constant relative risk aversion. The demand for jump risk includes a hedging component, which is not present in models without volatility jumps. We further show that the introduction of derivative contracts can have substantial economic value. We also analyze the distribution of terminal wealth for an investor who uses the wrong model, either by ignoring volatility jumps or by falsely including such jumps, or who is subject to estimation risk. Whenever a model different from the true one is used, the terminal wealth distribution exhibits fatter tails and (in some cases) significant default risk.     

Financial Crises and Recapitalizations

We develop a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with financial frictions on both financial intermediaries and goods‐producing firms. Since financial intermediaries are highly leveraged, we show that the welfare gains from their recapitalization in response to large but rare net worth losses are as large as those from eliminating typical business cycle fluctuations. We also find that these gains are increasing in the size of the net worth loss, are larger when recapitalization funds are raised from the household rather than the real sector, and can be larger when lower idiosyncratic risk leads to higher leverage.     

Double leverage cycle,interest rate,and financial crisis

We view mortgage as a risky derivative of its underlying house collateral and combine no-arbitrage valuation with equilibrium valuation approaches to develop a dynamic model of leverage cycle and interest rate. This model provides a unified explanation to pro-cyclical optimism, asset prices, and leverage, and counter-cyclical volatility and interest rate. In addition, the model shows that tightening funding margin in the mortgage securities market dampens optimism, asset prices, and leverage, whereas it raises volatility and interest rate in the housing market. A double leverage cycle leads to more volatile markets and a severe leverage cycle, thus resulting in worse financial crises.     

Does portfolio margining make borrowing more attractive?

This paper investigates the effects of a change in the margin rules of the U.S. financial securities markets. These rules determine how much investors can borrow to leverage their investments. Since the 1929 stock market crash, margin loans have been tightly regulated by the Securities and Exchange Act Regulation T. Between 2005 and 2008, the Securities and Exchange Commission modified these margin rules because they were perceived as not adequately reflecting investment risk. The amended rules have made it more attractive for investors to borrow by opening new margin accounts and diversifying their investment positions. This paper tests the hypothesis that the change in the margin rules has increased margin debt across the U.S. securities markets. It provides statistical evidence that this structural change can be dated to the amendments in the rules.     

A corporate bond innovation of the 90s: The clawback provision in high-yield debt

This paper examines a recent financial innovation in corporate bond contracts, referred to as the clawback provision. A clawback provision in debt contracts gives the issuer an option to redeem a specified fraction of the bond issue within a specified period at a predetermined price and with funds that must come from a subsequent equity offering. We argue that issuers use clawback provisions to mitigate the wealth losses that would otherwise occur when new equity is offered. Consistent with the hypotheses, the evidence shows that bond offerings are more likely to include a clawback provision if their issuers are private, have more intangible assets, have fewer liquid assets, and are unregulated. We also estimate the price of clawback provisions and find that yield spreads on bonds with clawback provisions are a median of 86 basis points higher relative to what they otherwise would be.     

土地资产价格波动与经济中的流动性供给——基于以地融资视角的研究

本文通过构建理论模型探讨土地资产价格波动与流动性供给之间的关系。在本文模型中,土地兼具生产资本与抵押资产属性,银行贷款同时受到投资需求、抵押品价值与信贷额度的约束。本文主要结论是:(1)土地资产价格在低于一个由基础货币供给决定的临界值后,能影响企业的抵押品价值并反映投资需求变化,故而与存款货币流动性供给正相关。这也使土地资产价格变化与企业杠杆周期一致且具有“预期自我实现”特征。(2)基础货币供给能够通过影响土地的流动性价值的方式来引导土地资产价格,前提是央行可掌握土地资产价格外生变化的原因。(3)信贷资产证券化会提高存款货币供给与土地价格的关联度,但也会削弱基础货币供给对土地价格的引导能力。本文的研究有助于认识土地资产价格与货币政策效果以及系统性金融风险的关联机制,为房地产调控政策提供启示。     

LAPM: A Liquidity-Based Asset Pricing Model

The intertemporal CAPM predicts that an asset's price is equal to the expectation of the product of the asset's payoff and a representative consumer's intertemporal marginal rate of substitution. This paper develops an alternative approach to asset pricing based on corporations' desire to hoard liquidity. Our corporate finance approach suggests new determinants of asset prices such as the distribution of wealth within the corporate sector and between the corporate sector and the consumers. Also, leverage ratios, capital adequacy requirements, and the composition of savings affect the corporate demand for liquid assets and, thereby, interest rates.     

Hedges or safe havens—revisit the role of gold and USD against stock: a multivariate extended skew-t copula approach

Our paper concerns the question of whether there exist hedge assets during extreme market conditions, which has become increasingly important since the recent financial crisis. This paper develops a novel extended skew-t copula model to examine the effectiveness of gold and US dollar (USD) as hedge or safe haven asset against stock prices for seven developed markets over the 2000–2013 period. Our results indicate the existence of skewness and heavy/thin tails in the distributions of all three types of assets in most of the developed markets, lending support to the employment of flexible distributions to evaluate the tail dependences among assets. We find that USD is preferred to gold as a hedge asset during normal market conditions, while both assets can serve as safe haven assets for most countries when stock markets crash. Our simultaneous analysis of the three assets advises against a joint hedge strategy of gold and USD due to the high tail dependence between them during extreme market conditions. This result highlights the importance of simultaneous modelling of multiple assets in financial risk analysis.     

Trader Leverage and Liquidity

Does trader leverage drive equity market liquidity? We use the unique features of the margin trading system in India to identify a causal relationship between traders’ ability to borrow and a stock's market liquidity. To quantify the impact of trader leverage, we employ a regression discontinuity design that exploits threshold rules that determine a stock's margin trading eligibility. We find that liquidity is higher when stocks become eligible for margin trading and that this liquidity enhancement is driven by margin traders’ contrarian strategies. Consistent with downward liquidity spirals due to deleveraging, we also find that this effect reverses during crises.