客户分组对商业银行个人信用评分模型的提升作用研究

分组模型是指根据借款人的行为特征分出不同的客群,是信用评分模型开发中的重要一环,可以提升信用评分模型的精度.采用模糊C均值聚类和CART决策树两种方法对全部借款人进行分组,并对分组后的每个客群进行WOE数值转换和逻辑回归信用评分模型的构建,通过对比发现分组后信用评分模型的KS和AUC均有提升,其中模糊C均值聚类作为无监督学习方法也取得较好的模型性能.     

基于征信大数据的替代信用评分

随着征信市场的快速发展,传统信用评分因其高门槛而呈现明显的拓展局限,例如美国有20％的消费者无法获得信用评分,因而在金融服务中困难重重.全球各大征信公司都开展了大数据技术的研究和应用,纷纷利用大数据资源,挖掘信贷数据之外的其他替代数据,加大替代信用评分产品的研发力度.在介绍大数据征信应用背景的基础上,分析归纳益博睿、艾克飞和环联等传统征信机构和数据挖掘公司费埃哲合作引入替代征信大数据,以及开发替代信用评分的最近动向及成果,进而总结其借鉴意义,希望能够对中国未来的大数据征信有一些启示.     

我国信用局个人信用评分发展研究

信用局个人信用评分作为信用风险管理的一个重要工具在国外得到广泛应用.我国个人基础信用信息数据库已经建成,开发信用局个人信用评分对我国社会信用体系建设和金融机构的风险管理有重要意义.在分析信用局个人信用评分特点、意义及其发展现状的基础上,提出我国信用局个人信用评分发展的几点建议.     

个人通用信用评分系统有望年内推广应用

近日，央行副行长朱民表示，经过3年多的努力，个人通用信用评分模型基本开发完成，目前已在部分商业银行进行验证，并有望在年内结束试用，进入实际应用阶段。     

基于数据挖掘的信用卡授卡风险评估模型

商业银行在信用卡发放审批时，通常使用信用评分体系为客户进行信用评分。目前，比较权威的信用评分体系为美国的FICO（Fair Isaac and Company）信用评分模型。一般情况下，一个完善的客户评分体系可能涉及近20个变量，其中有些可能涉及客户隐私。这样，客户在填写申请的过程中有可能出现的漏填、不填、错填及假填等现象，对银行实施信用评分模型无疑带来了很大困难。而事实上，有经验的商业银行信用卡审批人员，通常能够通过客户申请资料中的几个关键性因素，熟练而准确地作出发卡与否的判断。这说明在众多信用卡申请资料中，存在着直接影响客户信用水平的几个关键性因素。如果能准确把握这几个因素，     

信用评分卡体系的发展及应用

评分模型作为国际比较成功的消费信贷风险管理经验，在信贷产品生命周期管理中具有重要作用。本文对信用评分卡发展条件进行了分析，对信用评分卡的种类以及在客户营销阶段、客户审批阶段、客户管理阶段的应用做了较为全面的介绍和总结，为商业银行信用评分卡业务发展提供了有益参考。     

信用评分模型综述

信用评分模型是欧美消费信贷管理中广泛应用的技术手段,是银行、信用卡公司、汽车贷款公司、住房贷款公司、个人贷款公司、电信公司、公共事业公司、保险公司等涉及消费信用的企业实体最重要的核心管理技术之一。信用评分模型运用先进的数据挖掘技术和统计分析方法, 通过对消费     

信用评分模型在个人信贷业务中的应用

信用风险是金融业面临的最大风险。信用评分模型是有效识别个人信用风险的先进技术。本文结合中国实际，提出如何选择信用评分模型，如何在个人信贷业务中嵌入信用评分模型，同时，分析了信用评分模型在应用中的制约因素及对策。     

个人通用信用评分呼之欲出

2010年2月24日,中国人民银行副行长朱民在中科院虚拟经济与数据科学中心成果发布会上表示,全国个人通用信用评分系统的开发工作基本完成,年内有望正式上线。     

信用评分模型开发中的抽样技术

信用评分是运用数据挖掘技术对已知客户的信息进行分析，建立能预测未来客户信用表现的模型。数据准备是评分模型开发过程中非常重要的步骤，数据质量的好坏直接决定了模型的成败。由于银行内部的数据量非常庞大，为了使分析更加有效率，需要对数据进行抽样。因此，如何进行抽样，如何保证样本能够充分代表总体就非常重要。根据信用评分模型的开发经验以及数据挖掘中的抽样理论，现提出如下建立评分模型时应用的抽样技术以及注意事项。     

Almanac of anticipations: The age of affluence—of anticipation—of anxiety—of automation—of discontinuity—of longing—of overkill—of space exploration

With this survey of developments in the futures field since 1945, I.F. Clarke completes his present series for Futures. He makes two major points: that forecasting techniques have become essential tools in the management of change; and that nuclear weapons and ecological problems have added a moral dimension to the study of the future. In the next issue of Futures he will start a new series on the range of future-thinking in the USA, from the expectations of the first settlers to the Star Wars programme.     

社会主义所有制形式的改革、完善与共产党执政能力的提高

在中国,所有制形式的调整、改革与完善,先进生产力的发展,党的执政能力建设,是社会主义建设过程中密切结合在一起的三个不同层面的发展关系.应在相互促进和共同提高中促进社会的和谐发展,保证社会主义现代化建设战略目标的顺利实现.     

基金公司经营融资融券业务的问题审视

融资融券业务正式运营已经开展,为证券市场带来了革命性的改革,作为证券市场的一大主体,基金公司面对融资融券也迎来了新的发展方向和挑战,本文从融资融券业务的运行机制入手,分析了基金公司融资融券的新契机,并对其即将面临的问题进行审视和剖析,进而提出策略建议.     

对基层人民银行科技工作的几点建议

银监会分设后,人民银行将专司货币政策、金融稳定、金融服务三大职能。作为人民银行的分支机构,基层人民银行的工作重心也将从金融监管调整到这三大职能上来。人民银行的科技部门,就要积极运用科技手段,为人民银行履行新的职能发挥“服务、支持、促进、发展”的作用。一、围绕三大职能搭建五大平台经过“六五打基础、七五作准备、八五大发展”几个阶段后,人民银行相继实现了核算电算化、清算网络化和办公信息化。特别是近一两年来,陆续开通了大额支付系统、信贷登记咨询系统、会计四集中系统、金融信息服务网站等系统,人民银行信息化水平又…     

Properties of time-series estimates of degree of leverage measures

Empirical studies suggest that time-series regression estimates of the degrees of operating and financial leverage have a tendency to produce measures less than one. According to ex ante theory, these measures should be greater than one for firms operating above the breakeven point. There have also been suggestions that the biases in these estimates may be attributable to an underlying increase in unit sales. This work presents evidence that these counter-intuitive measures are produced by changes in the firm's operating parameters (unit price, variable cost, fixed cost and interest payments). It further suggests that attempts to control for the underlying change in unit sales substantially increase the volatility of predicted estimates.     

浅议金融机构的举证责任

金融纠纷案件是当事人以存单或进账单、对账单、存款合同、保险单、票据、证券等凭证为主要证据向人民法院提出诉讼的案件,对于不同种类金融纠纷的当事人的举证责任,我国现行的金融法律、法规及司法解释有不同的规定。由于金融机构的特殊法律地位,发生金融纠纷时存在有关当事人将最后偿付风险转移给金融机构承担的主观故意,在客观上会使金融机构难以提供相应的证据来对抗不法债权人的诉讼请求,而导致金融机构败诉。为此,对金融诉讼案件中金融机构的举证责任加以研究具有重要的实践意义。     

The Usefulness of Measures of Consistency of Discretionary Components of Accruals in the Detection of Earnings Management

Abstract:  Prior research has shown the prevalence of measurement error in models used to estimate aggregate discretionary accruals. In these models, the incremental information content of the various components of accruals is ignored. Limited prior research and data gathered from firms under Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) litigation indicate that managers use either one or more than one component of accruals simultaneously, in a consistent way to manipulate bottom-line earnings in a given direction. I propose two measures that capture the consistency between the discretionary components of accruals and test their significance in earnings management (EM) detection in firms that have artificially added accrual manipulation and firms that were targeted by the SEC for accrual manipulation. There is evidence that this information is incrementally useful in detecting EM. This finding paves the way for improvements in the discretionary accruals measure by including consistency information from the components of aggregate accruals.     

Summary of Results of Survey of Seminar Attendees

Abstract

The Society of Actuaries undertook a three-phase research project on mortality improvement in the three NAFTA countries: Canada, Mexico, and the U.S. Phase 1 consisted of a literature review of papers on projecting mortality levels in the future and a study of the trend in mortality improvement during this century. Phase 2 consisted of a discussion of different facets of modeling mortality rates at a seminar attended by 79 experts (actuaries, demographers, economists, and medical researchers) representing different countries. The last session of the seminar consisted of the completion of a survey by the attendees to obtain input for Phase 3, which would analyze the impact of mortality improvement on the social security system of each country. This paper summarizes the results of the survey.

The survey results illustrate the difficulty in forecasting mortality levels, because the effects of many factors that could have significant impact on mortality rates are unknown. This suggests the need for dynamic forecasting, which allows for the possibility of random shocks. A majority of the survey respondents believe that stochastic forecasting models, despite their complexity, have significant potential to add value. Respondents also believe that both historical data and cause-specific mortality forecasts are useful as input and also in validating forecasts of the aggregate levels of mortality. The challenge is to develop more sophisticated forecasting models to produce results that are relatively easy to interpret and to communicate these results to the desired audiences, including the public and policymakers.

The survey results suggest that the aggregate effect of lifestyle changes, medical advances, diseases, catastrophe, and physical environmental changes is an increase in life span. However, there is much uncertainty about the future. Respondents expect that beyond the year 2020 the mean annual rate of reduction in mortality for males age 65 and over will average about 0.58% for Canada, 0.76% for Mexico, and 0.67% for the U.S. The results for the female age 65 and over population are 0.64%, 0.83%, and 0.70%, respectively. The age 65 and over population is expected to see larger percentage reductions in mortality than the 0–14 and 15–64 populations. The reductions in male and female mortality will be ultimately the same, and the mortality levels in the three countries will ultimately converge, although differences may persist for decades.     

Separation of Unit of Account from Medium of Exchange

The separation of a unit of account (UoA) from a medium of exchange (MoE) in the commodity–money system is investigated by considering explicitly a seller's choice of UoA in terms of either an MoE or a unit of metal weight. If the likelihood of debasement of an MoE and its rate are high enough, the price is posted in terms of a unit of metal weight rather than an MoE. Interestingly, this MoE–UoA separated equilibrium yields the flexible nominal price, whereas an MoE–UoA integrated equilibrium yields the sticky one. This implies the nominal price rigidity in the fiat‐money system where MoE and UoA are integrated.