Future generations thinking

Future generations thinking provides a non-Western reading of space, time, nature and self, contrasting itself with the liberal openness of much of futures studies by asserting a non-negotiatable core. This includes a commitment to the family as a basic unit of analysis; inclusion of all sentient beings; belief in the repeatability of time; an inter-generational approach balancing ancestors and future generations; sustainable social and economic practices; a global focus; a spiritual and collective view towards choice and rationality; and the realization of a global ethics beyond postmodernity. In practice, however, future generations thinking often falls short of its claims. Nevertheless, if future generations thinking can become authentically multi-civilizational, it could create a new history for future generations.     

New generations of futures methods

This paper presents and further explores the issues discussed during the “New generations of futures methods” session at the WFSF 19th World Conference, Budapest, Hungary. The generational interplay has many different facets and can be looked at from many various perspectives. This paper looks at a broader role of young people as agents of cultural change in societies, their relation to futures studies and the implications of their fresh ways of thinking for futures methods. Also, the past evolution of futures methods and the challenges facing the present and future generation of futurists in regard to methodological as well as general development are reviewed. In an effort to draw together these issues and provide practical ways forward for futurists and their field four integrating themes are addressed:

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Allowing for differences, how do we develop solidarity between generations?

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What does the near-future outlook tell us that might help to achieve this?

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What personal, organisational and social capacities are needed?

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What methods are available for building social foresight?

     

What future generations need from us

What do future generations need from us? Various procedures, including individual and group role playing at 13 locations in nine countries, can help us answer this question. In general, future generations need equal opportunity (a legacy as beneficial as ours was), our caring about their well-being, and attention to their needs in our legislatures and parliaments. Their particular needs are for us to focus on peace and security, the environment, the worst risks of all, governance, the knowledge base, children and learning. The needs of future generations may provide the centrepiece for a new global ethic that improves our prospects for a positive future.     

Communicating total rewards to the generations

This is the first time in American history that four distinct generations have been in the workforce at the same time. Because employers have finite resources with which to compete for talent, they must understand the generations, what matters most to them and what they can do to motivate different generations of workers. Perhaps surprisingly, the author argues that the generations share in most valuing "soft cost" rewards over "hard dollar cost" items. This article advises employers on how to make their company a great place to work for all generations.     

A foresight strategy for future generations

This paper briefly considers three key areas where forward thinking is particularly vital: education, business and government. Drawing mainly upon examples from the Australian context, it suggests a broad rationale for establishing a ‘national foresight strategy’. The latter is supported by a more general model for developing social foresight. A further stimulus to forward thinking and future vision is to consider what advice future generations might offer us if they had the chance.     

Trusting future generations, trusting life

The paper outlines an experiential philosophy and approach to teaching and learning about future generations and about life. It includes outlines of two processes facilitated by the author as part of a deep ecology workshop.     

What future generations might say to us

If future generations could speak to us, what might they say to us about our efforts to learn and teach about them? Probably they would ask us to understand their perspective, to feel connected to them, and to care deeply. When we teach about future generations we should affect the head, heart, soul and hands. This learning and teaching should include inspiration, transpersonal bonding, empowerment, a personal affirmation or pledge, a sense of meaning and purpose, and a commitment to action. Certain books and journals can be especially useful for gaining the perspective of future generations.     

An overlapping generations model of taxpayer bailouts of banks

The paper constructs an overlapping generations model to evaluate how different bank rescue plans affect banks’ risk-taking incentives. For a non-competitive banking industry, we find bailout with tax imposed on the old generation or equity bail-in to be efficient policies in the sense that they implement socially optimal risk-taking. In a competitive banking sector, no-bailout implements the socially-optimal risk-taking. Bailout policies financed by a tax imposed on the young generation always induce excessive risk-taking.     

Risk sharing across generations without publicly owned equities

The U.S. Social Security trust fund currently invests in government bonds. Investing some of it instead in equities while continuing to pay Social Security benefits under existing rules would alter—potentially improve—the sharing of financial risks across non-trading generations. This paper shows that the same risk sharing can be achieved without direct government ownership of equities if instead the government places a linear and symmetric tax on risky private capital returns. This equivalence is very robust and holds even if some agents are endogenously borrowing constrained.     

Why we should care for future generations now

This article argues that caring for future generations is a legitimate ethical concern that arises from our common humanity. The first section explores several reasons why this extension of concern is appropriate and desirable. The second considers a number of strategies for accomplishing this goal. It is argued that caring for future generations now has a number of ‘win—win’ outcomes. That is, it has positive implications for the well-being of present generations as well.     

Private family firms,generations and bank debt

This paper focuses on the use of bank debt by private family firms and whether it is higher for the first generations of family businesses than for their descendants and subsequent generations. We use a unique hand-collected data set of 4,041 private Spanish firms for the years 2004 to 2013. We find statistical evidence that family-controlled firms make greater use of bank credit. Moreover, we show that first-generation family firms acquire more bank debt than those of second and subsequent generations. Furthermore, during financial crises, family-controlled firms were subjected to less rationing, with increased bank financing for first generations.     

Obligations to future generations and acceptable risks of human extinction

This paper addresses the question, ‘what is the acceptable risk of human extinction?’ Three qualitative obligations to future generations - The Fairness Criterion, The Unfinished Business Criterion, and the Maintaining Options Criterion - are used to produce quantitative estimates of the acceptable risk. The resulting acceptable risks are all at or below 10⁻²⁰, a very stringent standard.     

Bank liquidity and stability in an overlapping generations model

In an infinitely repeated version of the Diamond and Dybvig(1983) model, intergenerational transfers enable a bank to achieveinterest rate smoothing and to provide depositors with liquidityinsurance without Diamond and Dybvig's assumption of no sidetrades. The bank is subject to runs that may result from eitherexcessive withdrawals or the lack of new deposits. The lattercause, which cannot occur in Diamond and Dybvig's one-generationmodel, implies that suspension of convertibility may not preventbank runs. Government intervention may be necessary to maintainbank stability.     

Future generations: Economic, legal and institutional aspects

In economics, the issue of ‘future generations’ is mainly related to the environmental problems of resource consumption and pollution and their distribution over long time horizons. This paper critically discusses fundamental concepts in economics, such as efficiency and optimality, in relation to the incorporation of future generations in present day decision-making. Cost-benefit analysis (CBA) and discounting are used as a starting point and criticized for its inherent flaws such as incommensurability of values and its tendency to hide rather than reveal underlying values which are assumed to be fixed. We then investigate alternative approaches, in which, unlike in CBA, the preferences are not assumed to be a priori but must be constructed. Thus, interest groups or individuals must sit down together and figure out what things seem to be worth. The aim is to involve all interested parties in planning for the future.Similarly, on a national and regional level, increasingly stakeholder processes, deliberative and interest group procedures are used to develop strategies and visions for resource management and conservation. A similar case can be made for institutions at the international level. The legal examples provided in this paper show that rather than only installing an institution such as the guardian for the future on the global level, more ‘democratized’ bottom up approaches might be more appropriate.     

船舶基金：实现中国船运业几代人的梦想

在中国，船舶产业投资基金（以下简称船舶基金）是一种创新的金融模式，它凝结着中国船运业几代人的梦想。作为产业资本、社会资本和金融资本相结合的专业金融服务平台，它将为船运产业的结构整合带来一场革命，将使中国在国际市场的造船、租船乃至运输的产业链中分享到自己赢得的利益。     

Future generations and nuclear power—A pluralistic economic appraisal

Nuclear power is a growth industry despite the unresolved problem of waste management. This paper considers the case of Turkey which has a fast growing economy, and where the government has given permission to a Russian company to build a large plant in Mersin, Southern Turkey. Nuclear projects have unique features such as expensive set-up costs, long and expensive decommissioning processes (much longer than construction periods) and the issue of safe disposal of large quantities of highly radioactive wastes, some of which will remain active for many thousands of years, that may create environmental problems especially for future generations. The main focus in this paper is on the role of discounting in economic appraisal of nuclear projects in Turkey and elsewhere. Here we use three discounting methods in economic appraisal of the Turkish plant; standard discounting, the UK government’s method of declining discount rate and the intergenerational discounting method. The first two tend to yield somewhat favourable results under the assumption of no interruption in supply due to technical reasons or a major accident. The intergenerational discounting method, on the other hand, which treats all generational cohorts involved equitably, does not yield results as favourable as the other criteria.