论社会保障

在对美国社会保障制度改革的政策建议中,彼得·戴蒙德教授主张通过养老金相关参数的调整来适应未来养老基金支出增长的压力,方式是改善养老金待遇标准和税收规则以确保养老基金的精算平衡。其基本观点是:第一,社会保障是退休后收入的基础,是防止贫困和失去保险机会的保障,所以社会保障制度应该建立;第二,因为人们很少自愿进行养老金积累,年金化的强制性公共养老金就非常重要,一是能平衡终生收入,二是能够提供就业激励;第三,公共养老金计划对工人及其家庭,特别是儿童、配偶和遗属有重要保障作用;第四,延迟退休能提高未来的消费,设计合理的待遇累进原则和退休审查制度会有助于增加劳动激励;第五,养老金的代际转移是一种再分配,较多的再分配会对工作生涯形成激励;第六,为实现精算平衡,应引入自动平衡机制来自动调整税率和待遇水平,以减少立法的压力。     

城乡退休人员社会化管理服务应均等化

中国人口的快速老龄化、大规模老龄化以及“未富先老”，使得关注、完善老年群体社会保障服务成为民生保障的重要内容。在整体经济水平还不够发达的『青况下寻找合适的退休人员管理模式是对政府的一种考验。退休人员管理与户籍、身份过多地“捆绑”，是我国正在建立和完善的退休人员社会化管理服务存在的现实问题。退休人员管理户籍化、退休身份差异化使得各地的退休人员管理制度，退休人员享受到的待遇参差不齐，     

基于灰色关联度的中国养老服务劳动力市场影响因素分析北大核心CSSCI

以灰色系统理论为基础,对影响中国养老护理员数量的因素进行灰色关联度分析,从定量角度给出中国养老护理员数量影响关联因子的关联序。结果表明,与中国养老护理员数量关联度最高的关联因子分别为养老服务床位数、城镇人均可支配收入、城镇基本医疗保险参保人数、卫生技术人员数量。基于研究结论,应从注重多层次培训,拓宽劳动力供给渠道;建立健全人才培训体系,畅通劳动力就业路径;加强保障机制建设,提升劳动力待遇水平等方面采取有效的政策措施。     

各地传真

涉县：未就业高校毕业生享受失业补助;北京：启动“老年保障”工作;杭州：出台医疗保障违规行为处理办法;泰兴：农村高龄居民领取养老补贴     

美国延缓老龄劳动力退休的举措及启示

所谓“老龄劳动力”是指年龄在55岁以上的劳动力群体。在美国，由于人口老龄化和数千万战后“婴儿潮”时期出生人口（1946-1964）逐渐到达或接近退休年龄，老龄劳动力的就业与退休日益引起广泛的关注。本文拟在论述美国老龄劳动力的就业与退休现状的基础上，分析、评价美国鼓励老龄劳动力就业政策的内容、效果以及这些政策对中国所具有的借鉴意义。     

社会保障对城乡老年人的贫困削减效应

本文利用FGT指数测算了城乡老年人的贫困状况,探讨了社会保障对城乡老年人贫困削减的影响。研究表明:被养老保障覆盖的城乡老年人贫困状况均有明显改善,贫困发生率下降,贫困深度和贫困强度降低;农村医疗保障制度的贫困削减效应要弱于城镇医疗保障制度;得到社会救助的城乡老年人的贫困发生率反而更高,但是,农村社会救助明显降低了农村老年人的贫困深度和贫困强度。计量模型分析表明:养老保障、医疗保障和社会救助均对城镇老年人贫困削减有显著影响,享受养老保障和医疗保障的城镇老年人陷入贫困的概率更小,而享受社会救助的城镇老年人反而更易于陷入贫困;养老保障对农村老年人的贫困削减同样有显著作用,医疗保障和社会救助的影响并不显著。     

"正规就业-灵活就业"比较视角下的养老金充足性研究

待遇充足性是养老金领域的重要问题.本文在回顾养老金制度主要目标的基础上,提炼出待遇充足性在消费平滑与防止贫困两个维度的内涵,构建了公共养老金的充足性综合指标,以城镇职工基本养老保险中的正规就业群体和灵活就业群体比较为视角,基于我国家户收入调查微观数据,对待遇充足性综合指标及其影响因素进行测算分析.结果 发现:收入越低的人群越多依赖基本养老金收入,正规就业退休群体的养老金充足性水平明显高于灵活就业群体,男性的养老金充足性水平高于女性退休群体,东部地区退休群体的养老金充足性状况因较高的相对贫困风险和较低的横向替代率而低于中西部地区.建议制度改革要更多关注灵活就业群体的相对贫困风险问题.     

农村失独家庭养老需求的差异性与精准扶助——基于四川省H县调查

农村失独家庭是农村弱势群体中的“弱势群体”。准确识别失独家庭的养老需求并做出相应的策略安排,是养老资源有限条件下的理性选择。本文基于对四川省H县8个镇302户失独家庭的问卷调查,通过建立模型和访谈方式分析农村失独家庭养老需求的差异性。结果表明:老年失独家庭的养老需求比非老年失独家庭明显更高;收入和健康状况是影响农村老年失独家庭和非老年失独家庭养老需求的重要因素;性别、文化程度、婚姻状况以及有无积蓄对老年失独家庭和非老年失独家庭的各类养老需求类的影响有所不同;养老保险对两类家庭的养老需求均无显著影响。因此,本文从注重养老资源供给的侧重性、提高失独家庭收入水平、重点关注失独家庭的健康保障和提供菜单式的养老服务等方面对农村失独家庭的养老保障提出了精准扶助的政策思考。     

平台就业、社会保护与弹性保障——以丹麦为例

丹麦以慷慨的普惠社会福利、积极的劳动力市场政策和弹性保障模式闻名于世。弹性保障使劳动力市场更灵活,全面而慷慨的社会保障待遇为失业者提供了较高的社会保护。但平台就业常按任务计酬,具有间歇性和低收入特征,较正规就业“更不安全”或“更灵活”,基于正规就业设计的政策框架受到平台就业模式的挑战。本文拟对丹麦的平台就业与弹性保障模式的兼容性问题进行探究。     

缴费年限对养老保险基金支付风险的影响研究

缴费年限直接影响着养老保险基金的缴费积累与参保者的待遇水平。能够领取养老金的缴费年限由最低缴费年限和退休年龄框定,参保者在缴费年限上具有较大的自主选择权。本文根据城镇职工基本养老保险现行制度设计,运用保险精算方法,构建了基金支付风险精算模型,并依据该模型实证评估了缴费年限对养老保险基金支付风险的影响。研究结果表明:单方面提高最低缴费年限并不能降低基金支付风险,根本原因在于“长缴多得”的计发机制;退休年龄的延长确能降低基金的支付风险,“早缴费”、“长缴费”将是减少养老基金支付风险的重要举措,但需要辅之以最低缴费年限调整才能充分发挥延迟退休增收减支作用;同一退休年龄下,女性比男性获益程度更高,相应地对实现缴费与待遇平衡产生更大的负效应;缴费年限增加能够提高替代率,增强制度的保障功能;缴费比例降低以及退休后平均余命、城镇单位就业人员平均工资增长率、养老金增长率、个人账户记账利率以及平均缴费工资指数提高会增大基金支付风险。建议通过调整退休年龄辅之以最低缴费年限并进行参量调整以降低基金支付风险。     

延迟退休年龄、内生生育率与养老金

本文通过构建内生生育率的OLG模型,从微观视角考察了延迟退休年龄对生育率、养老金替代率及其个人养老金收入的影响。研究表明:(1)延迟退休年龄会提高均衡时的生育率水平,但提高幅度非常有限。(2)生育率的提高会增加未来劳动力供给,促进养老金替代率上升和养老金收入增加,而延迟退休年龄延长了养老保险缴费期限,也会促进养老金替代率上升和养老金收入增加;但同时,延迟退休年龄将使得预防性储蓄下降,资本积累降低,工资收入下降,养老金收入降低。因此,延迟退休年龄会使养老金替代率上升。当资本产出弹性大于或等于0.5时,延迟退休年龄会使得养老金收入降低;当资本产出弹性小于0.5时,在平均预期寿命较大或养老保险缴费比例较高的情形下,养老金收入会随着退休年龄的延迟而增加,反之,其会随着退休年龄的延迟而降低。进一步地,将模型拓展到包含人力资本的情形,延迟退休年龄仍会提高均衡时的生育率与养老金替代率。     

偿付能力、生命周期与养老金动态调整策略

本文从生命周期的角度,把养老保险基金的偿付能力作为内生变量,直接引入到养老金调整模型,使之能够自我反馈信息和修正预测偏差,并能根据偿付能力的变化对养老金进行动态调整,最终使养老保障能力与偿付能力实现了内在统一。情景分析表明:(1)在人口出生率和经济增速持续放缓的趋势下,如果不优化当前的养老金调整模式,偿付能力不足的程度将持续加剧;(2)与现行政策和现有模型相比,基于偿付能力构建的调整模型,能有效缓解偿付能力不足的程度,而且降低了养老金大幅波动的风险;(3)结合生命周期理论来调整养老金,不仅偿付能力的提升效果优于其它模式,而且延长了参保人员应对风险的时间,更加符合风险承受能力变化的生命周期特征,提高了抵抗风险的能力;(4)在制定延迟退休年龄等政策时,要综合考虑调整模式、养老金增长率和人口出生率等多方面因素,养老保险基金才可能持久地保持充足的偿付能力。     

延迟退休对城镇职工养老保险收支影响的净效应估计——基于2025年起渐进式延迟退休年龄的假设

鉴于延迟退休对养老金收支有多重影响,本文假定2025年起以"每4年延迟1年"节奏,逐步将男(女)养老金正常领取年龄(NRA)从60(55)岁提高至2049年的65(60)岁,利用中国未来分年龄人口数的完整估计数据,估算了延迟退休对城镇职工基本养老保险收支影响的净效应。估算结果显示,延迟退休为2050年争取到了近25%的制度赡养比下降空间,养老压力高峰期大大推迟。无论延迟与否,未来养老金收支缺口规模都很大,但延迟退休对抑制缺口扩大仍有显著效果,特别是在短中期,每年的收支缺口会因此减少40%~70%,但2050年后的远期效果明显减弱。建议尽早实施渐次延迟退休,减少工作退休的强制性,尊重国情允许男女差龄退休;加强养老金财政补贴长期规划,减轻远期财政兜底压力;加强养老金缴费与受益的精算联系,大力提高基金投资效率等。     

Public Pension Reform in the United Kingdom: What Effect on the Financial Well‐Being of Current and Future Pensioners?*

Unlike many tax and benefit changes, reforms to public pension programmes take many years to have their full effect. This paper examines the effect of reforms to the public pension programme in the United Kingdom on the state retirement incomes of current generations of pensioners and on the prospective state incomes of future generations of pensioners. We show that, for an individual with lifetime earnings close to male average earnings, the UK pension system is at its most generous to those reaching the state pension age around the year 2000, but that the introduction of the state second pension and the pension credit postpones this peak for individuals on lower incomes and for those with substantial periods out of paid employment spent with caring responsibilities. We also consider how the ‘mix’ of benefits, particularly between the contributory and income‐tested sectors, could change over time, and the impact that this would have on incentives to save for retirement.     

The Impact of DC Pension Systems on Population Dynamics

Abstract

This study investigates the risk inherent in defined contribution (DC) pension plans on an individual and aggregate basis, based on U.S. data. Our aim is to gain insight into the consequences of a DC pension scheme becoming the predominant pillar of retirement income for an entire society. Using the stochastic simulated output of a DC flexible age-of-retirement model, we first determine the optimal investment strategies. We then examine the demographic retirement dynamics of an entire population of DC pension plan participants.

We observe that even for the most risk-averse plan members there is a high level of uncertainty in an individual’s age at retirement. At the aggregate population level, we find that this uncertainty does not get dampened to any great extent by a diversification effect. Instead, the central role played by the market in determining retirement dates results in significant variation in the dependency ratio (the ratio of retirees to workers) over time. In addition, an attempt to ameliorate the outcome by introducing additional realistic features in the DC population modeling did little to dampen this volatility, which suggests that countries dominated by DC schemes of this type may, over time, be exposed to significant risk in the size of its labor force.     

Making Federal Pension Policy Work

Abstract

Millions of Americans retire while they are still productive. Of these, many will have the resources to enjoy all of their golden years. Unfortunately, many others will face economic hardships after they have exhausted their own resources but have become too frail to return to work. Part of the problem is that the current pension system is fraught with financial incentives that push ablebodied elderly workers into retirement just when they should instead be encouraged to remain in the workforce to accumulate additional retirement assets. This paper recommends a number of ways to change federal pension laws in order to encourage elderly workers to remain in the workforce. For example, this paper recommends toughening the penalty on premature distributions, repealing the minimum distribution rules, and repealing the exceptions to the Age Discrimination in Employment Act that permit retirement plans to provide early retirement incentives and subsidies.

This paper also considers whether the government should require that all retirement plans be neutral as to the timing of retirement. In an age-neutral world, workers would always accrue more benefits if they kept working. Consequently, more workers would remain in the workforce, accumulating additional assets for their eventual retirement.

Finally, this paper also considers how federal pension policy could help counteract the tendency of Americans to retire too early because they underestimate their life expectancies, overestimate their financial resources, and fail to understand the deleterious effects of inflation. In particular, this paper recommends that the government require that virtually all retirement plans pay at least a portion of their benefits in the form of an inflation-adjusted annuity.     

城镇职工基本医疗保险制度抚养比研究

城镇职工基本医疗保险的"制度抚养比"比"系统老龄化"更能反映缴费人口的真实负担。文章借鉴"人口抚养比"概念分析了城镇职工基本医疗保险的"制度抚养比",发现,当前我国中部地区职工医疗保险缴费人口真实负担最重,西部地区居中,东部地区负担最轻。未来,我国医疗保险改革方向是提高医疗保障的范围和水平,同时将覆盖面扩展至农民工的难度不断加大,通过降低职工医疗保险系统老龄化和老年人人均医疗消费支出来降低制度抚养比的效果不明显。为降低制度抚养比,应抓住当前职工医疗保障的范围和水平正在不断提高这一历史时机,对退休老人实行分类终生缴费:养老金低于政府规定的最低缴费养老金的退休老人,由政府按照最低缴费养老金的2%进行代缴;养老金水平高于最低缴费养老金的退休老人,由个人缴费。     

Communicating the need for additional savings in the face of retiree health benefit cutbacks.

In preparing for retirement, employees need to consider not only their pension benefits but also the challenge of financing their retirement health care needs. Various trends evolving in our society indicate that future retirees will be increasingly dependent on their own retirement savings. Evidence suggests that employees are not fully aware of the significance of health costs in retirement and must be educated to the need to save for retiree health care expenses. This article discusses the issues of Medicare reduction and retiree health benefit cutbacks and the relative communication and education challenges such issues pose to employers.     

Pension reform,retirement, and life-cycle unemployment

This paper investigates the labor market impact of four often proposed policy measures for sustainable pensions: strengthening the tax benefit link, moving from wage to price indexation of benefits, lengthening calculation periods, and introducing more actuarial fairness in pension assessment. We consider the impact on three margins of aggregate labor supply, retirement behavior, job search, and hours worked. We provide some analytical results and use a computational model to demonstrate the economic impact of recent pension reform in Austria. Reducing the distortion in the retirement decision by introducing pension supplements and discounts conditional on the chosen retirement date promises the largest gains. We also find that the pension reform is far from sufficient to offset the fiscal implications of projected demographic change in Austria.