Measuring the Impact of Longevity Risk on Pension Systems: The Case of Italy

This article estimates the impact of longevity risk on pension systems by combining the prediction based on a Lee-Carter mortality model with the projected pension payments for different cohorts of retirees. We measure longevity risk by the difference between the upper bound of the total old-age pension expense and its mean estimate. This difference is as high as 4% of annual GDP over the period 2040–2050. The impact of longevity risk is sizeably reduced, but not fully eliminated, by the introduction of indexation of retirement age to expected life at retirement. Our evidence speaks in favor of a market for longevity risk and calls for a closer scrutiny of the potential redistributive effects of longevity risk.     

Will we outlive our money?

Fewer and fewer Americans retire with benefits in the form of life annuities. The author raises key issues regarding the increased importance that uncertainty plays in determining retirement income. The key issues include longevity risk and how savings withdrawals rates will be affected at varying rates of return.     

Dynamic portfolio choice with deferred annuities

We derive the optimal life-cycle portfolio choice and consumption pattern for households facing uncertain labor income, risky capital market, and mortality risk. In addition to stocks and bonds, the households have access to deferred annuities. Deferred payout life annuities are financial contracts providing life-long income to the annuitant after a specified period of time conditional on survival. We find that deferred annuities play an important role in household portfolios and generate significant welfare gains. Households with high benefits from state pensions, moderate risk aversion and moderate labor income risk purchase deferred annuities from age 40 and gradually increase their portfolio share. At retirement, deferred annuities account for 78% of total financial wealth. Households with low state pensions and high labor income risk purchase more annuities and earlier. Uncertainty with respect to future mortality rates has the same effect, i.e. household hedge against longevity risks using deferred annuities.     

Reserves and cash flows under stochastic retirement

Uncertain time of retirement and uncertain structure of retirement benefits are risk factors for life insurance companies. Nevertheless, classical life insurance models assume these are deterministic. In this paper, we include the risk from stochastic time of retirement and stochastic benefit structure in a classical finite-state Markov model for a life insurance contract. We include discontinuities in the distribution of the retirement time. First, we derive formulas for appropriate scaling of the benefits according to the time of retirement and discuss the link between the scaling and the guarantees provided. Stochastic retirement creates a need to rethink the construction of disability products for high ages and ways to handle this are discussed. We show how to calculate market reserves and how to use modified transition probabilities to calculate expected cash flows without significantly more complexity than in the traditional model. At last, we demonstrate the impact of stochastic retirement on market reserves and expected cash flow in numerical examples.     

High-age implications of postretirement risks

The retirement world of the future is challenging because of the decline in defined benefit plans, low savings rates in the United States, increased longevity and the failure of many people to effectively plan for retirement. Drawing on a variety of studies and public opinion surveys, the authors of this article explain why a system that relies too much on people providing for themselves will have segments of the population who have inadequate retirement incomes due to a number of gaps, which pose the most risk at advanced ages. These gaps can occur because of difficulties in managing postretirement risk, acquiring inadequate savings in the first place and problematic public perceptions about retirement income risks.     

Retirement income decisions: the silent generation speaks

Survey findings indicate that members of the Silent Generation--those born between 1933 and 1945, and perhaps the last ones to rely heavily on a defined benefit pension plan--feel confident that they will have enough money to live comfortably to at least the age of 85. Yet, many are at risk of outliving their retirement assets. They overestimate their Social Security payouts and the likelihood that they will work in retirement, and they underestimate their postretirement expenses, especially health care. Many lack safeguards against overspending and do not understand their longevity risk. The Silents' experiences in preparing for and living in retirement may offer some valuable lessons to be learned by the baby boomers and the generations that follow as they plan for a financially secure future.     

延迟退休年龄、内生生育率与养老金

本文通过构建内生生育率的OLG模型,从微观视角考察了延迟退休年龄对生育率、养老金替代率及其个人养老金收入的影响。研究表明:(1)延迟退休年龄会提高均衡时的生育率水平,但提高幅度非常有限。(2)生育率的提高会增加未来劳动力供给,促进养老金替代率上升和养老金收入增加,而延迟退休年龄延长了养老保险缴费期限,也会促进养老金替代率上升和养老金收入增加;但同时,延迟退休年龄将使得预防性储蓄下降,资本积累降低,工资收入下降,养老金收入降低。因此,延迟退休年龄会使养老金替代率上升。当资本产出弹性大于或等于0.5时,延迟退休年龄会使得养老金收入降低;当资本产出弹性小于0.5时,在平均预期寿命较大或养老保险缴费比例较高的情形下,养老金收入会随着退休年龄的延迟而增加,反之,其会随着退休年龄的延迟而降低。进一步地,将模型拓展到包含人力资本的情形,延迟退休年龄仍会提高均衡时的生育率与养老金替代率。     

Keeping Some Skin in the Game: How to Start a Capital Market in Longevity Risk Transfers

The recent activity in pension buyouts and bespoke longevity swaps suggests that a significant process of aggregation of longevity exposures is under way, led by major insurers, investment banks, and buyout firms with the support of leading reinsurers. As regulatory capital charges and limited reinsurance capacity constrain the scope for market growth, there is now an opportunity for institutions that are pooling longevity exposures to issue securities that appeal to capital market investors, thereby broadening the sharing of longevity risk and increasing market capacity. For this to happen, longevity exposures need to be suitably pooled and tranched to maximize diversification benefits offered to investors and to address asymmetric information issues. We argue that a natural way for longevity risk to be transferred is through suitably designed principal-at-risk bonds.     

Demographic change, social security systems, and savings

In theory, improvements in healthy life expectancy should generate increases in the average age of retirement, with little effect on savings rates. In many countries, however, retirement incentives in social security programs prevent retirement ages from keeping pace with changes in life expectancy, leading to an increased need for life-cycle savings. Analyzing a cross-country panel of macroeconomic data, we find that increased longevity raises aggregate savings rates in countries with universal pension coverage and retirement incentives, though the effect disappears in countries with pay-as-you-go systems and high replacement rates.     

On the economics of the longevity risk transfer market

We present a model of a longevity risk transfer market with different market players (primary insurers, reinsurers, and capital market investors) and investigate how market dynamics and the market players' roles evolve with progressing market saturation. We find that reinsurers' appetite for longevity risk is the key driver in the early stage of market development. Since diversification benefits with other businesses decrease with every transaction, the reinsurance market is intrinsically antimonopolistic. With the increasing saturation of the reinsurance sector as a whole, its competitiveness shrinks leading to rising expected risk-adjusted returns for capital market investors. We show that in a saturated market, reinsurers should assume the entire longevity risk from primary insurers, diversify it within their business mix, and subsequently pass on only specific (nondiversifiable) components of the longevity risk to the capital markets. Our findings provide valuable suggestions on how to make the best use of the market's limited risk absorption capacity.     

Pension reform,retirement, and life-cycle unemployment

This paper investigates the labor market impact of four often proposed policy measures for sustainable pensions: strengthening the tax benefit link, moving from wage to price indexation of benefits, lengthening calculation periods, and introducing more actuarial fairness in pension assessment. We consider the impact on three margins of aggregate labor supply, retirement behavior, job search, and hours worked. We provide some analytical results and use a computational model to demonstrate the economic impact of recent pension reform in Austria. Reducing the distortion in the retirement decision by introducing pension supplements and discounts conditional on the chosen retirement date promises the largest gains. We also find that the pension reform is far from sufficient to offset the fiscal implications of projected demographic change in Austria.     

Valuation, optimal asset allocation and retirement incentives of pension plans

We provide a framework in which we link the valuation and assetallocation policies of defined benefits plans with the lifetimemarginal productivity schedule of the worker and the pensionplan formula. In turn, we examine the retirement policies thatare implied by the primitives of the model and the value ofpension obligations. Our model provides an explicit valuationformula for a stylized defined benefits plan. The optimal assetallocation policies consist of the replicating portfolio independentof the pension liabilities. We show that the worker with retirewhen the ratio of pension benefits to current wages reachesa critical value which depends on the parameters of the pensionplan and the discount rate. Using numerical techniques we analyzethe feedback effect of retirement policies on the valuationof plans and on the asset allocation decisions.     

Longevity Risk Management in Singapore's National Pension System

Although annuities are a theoretically appealing way to manage longevity risk, in the real world relatively few consumers purchase them at retirement. To counteract the possibility of retirees outliving their assets, Singapore's Central Provident Fund, a national defined contribution pension scheme, has recently mandated annuitization of workers’ retirement assets. More significantly, the government has entered the insurance market as a public‐sector provider for such annuities. This article evaluates the money's worth of life annuities and discusses the impact of the government mandate and its role as an annuity provider on the insurance market.     

Private Pension Arrangements and Retirement in Britain*

This paper looks at the policy debate surrounding private pensions and retirement patterns in the UK. Recent increases in longevity have led not only to increased pressures in public pensions but also to corresponding increases in the importance of private pensions in the UK and changes in the way in which they are structured. We consider the economic implications of these changes, and in particular the increased importance of defined contribution plans. In addition, we discuss the prospects for future trends in retirement ages.     

Age discrimination--disability benefits; public sector. Arnett v. California Public Employees Retirement System, No. 98-15574, __F.3d __(9th Cir.1999)

Under the statutory formula for determining disability retirement benefits for California public safety employees, the amount of benefits differs solely on the basis of the retiree's age when hired. This formula may violate the Age Discrimination in Employment Act (ADEA) under a disparate treatment theory if the employees can prove discriminatory motive. While a formula for determining benefits that is based upon actual years of service does not violate ADEA, a formula based upon potential years of service as determined with reference to a presumed retirement age may violate the act. The disparate impact theory may be used to prove violation of ADEA in the Ninth Circuit.     

Financing long-term care: employee needs and attitudes, and the employer's role.

Because of increasing life expectancies, high costs for nursing home and home health care, declining levels of informal family care, and the stated policy of the federal and state governments to foster self-reliance, individuals are increasingly exposed to the risk of financial ruin from long-term care (LTC) expenses. Yet, because of psychological barriers and aversions, particularly to thinking about residing in a nursing home, most individuals have not purchased LTC insurance. Hence, it may be the responsibility of employers to provide education to employees about LTC and to sponsor either individual or group plans of LTC insurance. Educational efforts may be particularly effective at the time of retirement when employees are in a more serious mood to consider the contingencies of retired life. A formal and perhaps more economical response for employers would be to offer combined life annuity and LTC insurance benefits through the retirement plan, provided certain regulatory and tax barriers can be removed.     

Management of Portfolio Depletion Risk through Optimal Life Cycle Asset Allocation

Members of defined contribution (DC) pension plans must take on additional responsibilities for their investments, compared to participants in defined benefit (DB) pension plans. The transition from DB to DC plans means that more employees are faced with these responsibilities. We explore the extent to which DC plan members can follow financial strategies that have a high chance of resulting in a retirement scenario that is fairly close to that provided by DB plans. Retirees in DC plans typically must fund spending from accumulated savings. This leads to the risk of depleting these savings, that is, portfolio depletion risk. We analyze the management of this risk through life cycle optimal dynamic asset allocation, including the accumulation and decumulation phases. We pose the asset allocation strategy as an optimal stochastic control problem. Several objective functions are tested and compared. We focus on the risk of portfolio depletion at the terminal date, using such measures as conditional value at risk (CVAR) and probability of ruin. A secondary consideration is the median terminal portfolio value. The control problem is solved using a Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman formulation, based on a parametric model of the financial market. Monte Carlo simulations that use the optimal controls are presented to evaluate the performance metrics. These simulations are based on both the parametric model and bootstrap resampling of 91 years of historical data. The resampling tests suggest that target-based approaches that seek to establish a safety margin of wealth at the end of the decumulation period appear to be superior to strategies that directly attempt to minimize risk measures such as the probability of portfolio depletion or CVAR. The target-based approaches result in a reasonably close approximation to the retirement spending available in a DB plan. There is a small risk of depleting the retiree’s funds, but there is also a good chance of accumulating a buffer that can be used to manage unplanned longevity risk or left as a bequest.     

Long guarantees with short duration: the rolling annuity

We present a new type of with-profits annuities which offer lifelong, yet hedgeable, guarantees. The rolling annuity gives a minimum lifelong guarantee at the time of contribution complemented with a series of guaranteed increases prior to retirement. Importantly, the initial guarantee and the subsequent increases are all set at prevailing market rates and hence are not known in advance. The structure of the guarantee implies that, prior to the last increase, the liability is equivalent to a zero-coupon bond maturing at the next increase and can therefore easily be hedged in the financial markets. Furthermore, the short duration implies that the financial and regulatory value will (essentially) coincide. We show financial fairness and we derive the reserve and thereby the hedging strategy. We also consider longevity risk, the duration profile, and report on a simulation study of the real value of the final payout.     

Would emerging market pension funds benefit from international diversification: investigating wealth accumulations for pension participants

In recent years, investment portfolio selection is growing in importance for many emerging market pension funds, as pension reforms replace traditional pay-as-you-go systems with advanced funding systems. Various investment regulations are applied to the funded pensions, particularly in the form of portfolio limits for equities and international assets. With a bootstrap simulation approach, this paper attempts to quantify the impacts on retirement benefits of restricting international assets from the investment portfolios of emerging market pension funds. We find that, on average, over half of the pension portfolios of emerging market countries should be in international assets in order to maximize the expected utility of moderate and conservative pension fund participants. More generally, international assets can play a significant role in the investment portfolios for workers with risk aversion varying from aggressive to conservative. With few exceptions, the entire probability distribution of wealth accumulations at retirement could be shifted higher with the inclusion of international assets.     

Longevity Bonds: Financial Engineering, Valuation, and Hedging

This article examines the main characteristics of longevity bonds (LBs) and shows that they can take a large variety of forms which can vary enormously in their sensitivities to longevity shocks. We examine different ways of financially engineering LBs and consider problems arising from the dearth of ultra‐long government bonds and the choice of the reference population index. The article also looks at valuation issues in an incomplete markets context and finishes with an examination of how LBs can be used as a risk management tool for hedging longevity risks.