Information footholds: Isolating local presence as a factor in analyst performance and trading

I compare the performance of buy/hold/sell recommendations from foreign, local, and expatriate (foreigners with local operations) analysts in an emerging market. Location appears to be important: expatriate analysts significantly outperform foreign analysts. Expatriates also significantly outperform locals, implying that other factors such as global resources also play a role, and a variety of controls for the characteristics of the recommending firm does not alter findings. Trading based on expatriate recommendations generates significantly positive risk-adjusted returns. Furthermore, foreign and local institutional investors appear to trade on the superior information of expatriate analysts, even when it contradicts their own information.     

Stock Returns and Volatility under Market Segmentation: The Case of Chinese A and B Shares

In most countries where firms list separate shares for trading by foreign and domestic investors, the prices of the foreign shares tend to be higher. In China, the reverse tends to be true. In this paper, we would like to focus on the information content in lagged premiums of Chinese A over B traded shares. The lagged premiums are found to have certain predictive power over the future returns and volatility of both A and B shares, with some interesting patterns. Specifically, an increase in the premium ratio of A shares will be followed by a rise in the return of A shares and a fall in the return of B shares. It is found that both of the investors in Chinese A- and B-share markets reveal positive feedback trading behavior. Moreover, the liquidity and information availability will affect the magnitude of such behavior especially in B-share markets. By using multivariate GARCH model, it is also demonstrated that the unexpected changes in the premium ratio of A-share price over B-share price contribute to the return volatility of both A shares and B shares. These patterns may provide foundations for the development of pricing models for equity shares under market segmentation.     

Order price clustering,size clustering,and stock price movements: Evidence from the Taiwan Stock Exchange

This paper examines order price clustering, size clustering, and stock price movements in an active emerging country’s equities market, the Taiwan Stock Exchange (TWSE). We first explore the relationships between investor types and order price/size clustering. Next, we investigate the joint determinants of the round-price and round-size orders based on daily and intraday data analyses. Finally, we look at the relationships among investor types, round prices/sizes, and stock price movements. The findings reveal that all investor types exhibit price and size clustering phenomena. After controlling for other factors, institutional investors have a relatively lower level of size clustering when compared with individuals. Our results confirm the price resolution hypothesis, whereby the levels of daily price and size clustering increase with firm risk, and the probability of a round-price or round-size order increases as transitory volatility rises. Partially consistent with the negotiation hypothesis, the probability of a round-price or round-size order increases when order competition turns fiercer. Mutual funds exhibit stronger quarter-end and session-end effects than do other investors. We also detect strategic trading behaviors, showing that the probability of an order with a tail price of one (nine) increases when buy (sell) order competition is fiercer. Lastly, stocks with mutual funds’ round-price or round-size buy (sell) orders experience rising (falling) future stock returns.     

Predictable behavior, profits, and attention

Stocks in the Shanghai market that hit upper price limits typically exhibit three characteristics: high returns, high volumes, and news coverage. We show that these price limit events attract investors' attention. Attention-grabbing events lead active individual investors to buy stocks they have not previously owned. Consistent with lowering investor search costs, events that affect a few (many) stocks lead to increased (decreased) buying. Upper price limit events coincide with initial price increases followed by statistically significant price mean reversion over the following week. Rational traders (statistical arbitrageurs) profit in response to attention-based buying. Smart traders accumulate shares on date t, sell shares on date t + 1, and earn a daily average profit of 1.16%. We show the amount they invest predicts the degree of attention-based buying by individual investors. We end by decomposing individual investor trades in order to estimate losses attributable to behavioral biases.     

Isolating the effect of disclosure on information risk

This study examines companies with two classes of shares that entitle their holders to identical cash flow and voting rights but that are available to mutually exclusive sets of investors: A shares to domestic investors and B shares to foreign investors. Price differences between A and B shares are higher in firms with a greater disparity in the disclosures that they make to domestic and foreign investors. This association is more pronounced when the cost (benefit) of information transfer is higher (lower). The results suggest that disclosure disparity creates meaningful differences in investors' average information precision across A and B shares and thus influences the cross-sectional variation in price differences.     

Trigger happy or gun shy? Dissolving common‐value partnerships with Texas shootouts

The operating agreements of many business ventures include clauses to facilitate the exit of joint owners. In so‐called Texas Shootouts, one owner names a single buy‐sell price and the other owner is compelled to either buy or sell shares at that named price. Despite their prevalence in real‐world contracts, Texas Shootouts are rarely triggered. In our theoretical framework, sole ownership is more efficient than joint ownership. Negotiations are frustrated, however, by the presence of asymmetric information. In equilibrium, owners eschew buy‐sell offers in favor of simple offers to buy or to sell shares and bargaining failures arise. Experimental data support these findings.     

The Information Environment of China''s A and B Shares: Can We Make Sense of the Numbers?

In 1990, three stock exchanges were opened in Shanghai, Shenzhen and Beijing. Partial privatization of China's enterprises began with offering two types of shares: A shares are sold only domestically to locals and are denominated in local currency; B shares are denominated in dollars and are sold only to foreign investors. All listed firms offer A shares, but to qualify for offering B shares, the firm must prepare financial statements in accordance with International Accounting Standards and also meet other requirements. Firms issuing A shares only adopt domestic accounting regulations.As a way of generating capital funds, market segmentation has been a success. Both types of shares, however, have two different information environments. The environment of A shares appears to be dominated by local regulations and customs at the time of offering or trading. The information environment of A shares appears to be relatively unstructured and is affected by informal communication between various groups. Other than the roles played by state officials and appointed managers, external monitoring of A shares appears to be limited. Independence and social acceptance of auditing appear to be making slow progress, especially when the majority of domestic CPA firms are government owned. In contrast, the information environment for the B shares is more structured because (1) financial reporting adheres to International Accounting Standards, (2) financial statements are audited by CPA firms with international practice; and (3) foreign investors — mainly large financial institutions — also act as external monitors.We elaborate on the differences between these two information environments and suggest that accounting earnings and A share prices are not correlated, but earnings and share prices are correlated for B shares. In an event-study approach, we find results inconsistent with both hypotheses — for 1994 and 1995 we find that earnings and unexpected returns are correlated for A shares but not for B shares. The high price volatility, the significant and continuing dominance of government officials, and the thinness of trade in B shares are offered as possible explanation for these results.     

Differential shareholder wealth and volume effects surrounding private equity placements in New Zealand

Private equity placements in New Zealand exhibit a strong positive relationship between abnormal announcement returns and the price at which shares are placed. The relationship suggests that placement price conveys important information regarding firm quality and value. This is significant as the New Zealand market has different regulations governing private equity placements compared to other countries. For example, private placement purchasers in New Zealand can buy shares at substantial discounts and immediately sell on-market without disclosing these trades to the market for a period of at least 5 days. Private placements issued at a premium exhibit a permanent positive impact on firm value. In contrast, those placed at a discount experience negative announcement returns and show a significant run-down in returns following the announcement. Private placements spark a large increase in trading activity in the 5 days following an announcement and the increase is particularly strong for those placed at a discount. We also find that companies that privately place equity in New Zealand are typically low book to market, thinly traded stocks. Therefore, the immediate returns available to purchasers of discounted shares may reflect fair compensation for these risks.     

Why Do Firms Issue Equity after Splitting Stocks?

This paper examines the motivations of firms that conduct seasoned equity offerings (SEOs) after splitting stocks. We find no difference in equity announcement and issue period returns between these firms and other equity‐issuing firms, suggesting that firms do not split stocks to reveal information and reduce adverse selection costs at the subsequent SEO. However, because investors react positively to split announcements, firms that issue equity after splitting stocks sell new shares at a higher price and raise more funds. We also find that firms split stocks to make the subsequent SEO more marketable to individual investors who are attracted to low‐priced shares.     

Corporate governance and market segmentation: evidence from the price difference between Chinese A and H shares

This paper empirically examines whether the price difference between Chinese A shares, which are traded in the domestic market, and their matching H shares, which are traded in the Hong Kong market, can be explained by firms’ corporate governance characteristics. We find that the A- to H-share price premiums are higher for firms in which the controlling shareholders and corporate insiders have greater potential to expropriate wealth from outside investors. This result is robust when we use a variety of corporate governance variables specific to listed Chinese companies to explain the A-share price premiums and when we control for differences between domestic and foreign investors in required returns, degree of speculative trading, liquidity, information, and demand elasticity. Our findings highlight the important role of corporate governance in explaining the price difference in segmented stock markets.     

Split Share Structure Reform,corporate governance,and the foreign share discount puzzle in China

We examine the impact of the Split Share Structure Reform on the well-known foreign share discount puzzle in China. Existing literature confirms that foreign investors are more concerned about insider expropriation because of their information disadvantage relative to domestic investors. The split share structure of the ownership of Chinese listed firms created a conflict of interests between state and private shareholders. Since, before the reform, state shareholders held restricted shares that denied them any wealth effect from share price movements, they had a limited incentive to work with private shareholders to ensure that managers maximized the stock market value of the firm. By abolishing the trading restrictions for state shareholders, this reform has increased the incentive alignment between state and private shareholders, encouraging them to monitor managers. If foreign investors’ concerns over the corporate governance implications of the split share structure at least partly contributed to their discounting of Chinese listed firms, then this discount should be reduced following the reform. Indeed, our evidence confirms this prediction, especially among Chinese listed firms with more state ownership or restricted shares. Our findings imply that this significant institutional reform of the Chinese stock market has benefitted minority investors.     

我国上市公司高送转公告效应的实证研究

为检验上市公司定高送转预案公告发布对其股票价格的影响,本文以2009年至2010年沪深两市推出高送转预案的285家上市公司为样本,选取公告日前10日至公告日后20日为事件窗口,运用事件研究法对高送转公告效应进行实证研究。结果表明：中国股市具有明显的高送转公告效应,上市公司高送转预案公告发布前后股票具有显著的正价格效应,会产生持续的累计异常正收益;然而,由于信息不对称,部分投资者通常会提前获得有关高送转的内幕信息并提前买入,并以此获得可观的超额收益,而普通投资在公告发布后买入只能获得小部分的超额收益并且需要承担更大的风险。     

Buy and sell dynamics following high market returns: Evidence from China

We provide a closer look at the trading dynamics which may give rise to the positive relationship between market trading volume and its lagged returns. Chinese market turnover increases sharply with past day returns. A comprehensive dataset which facilitates the tracing of trading activities among different groups of investors reveals that when previous market returns are high, investors with larger (smaller) average trade size increase their buy (sell) volume. Our findings indicate an important role of differing responses to market information among different classes of investors (e.g. different priors) in explaining this recently documented phenomenon.     

The Impact of Value Line Special Situations Recommendations on Stock Prices: Evidence From the Over-the-Counter Market

The value to investors of the information provided by the Value Line Investment Service has been the subject of discussion for many years. This paper examines the information content of the recommendations made by the Value Line Special Situations Service to buy (sell) specific stock issues. The advice given by Value Line generates significant abnormal returns to shareholders near its release date. However, when the price response over longer periods is considered, the effect of the recommendations appears to be transitory. Further, there appears to be no difference in the overall price response between listed and over-the-counter securities.     

The trading behavior of institutions and individuals in Chinese equity markets

This paper employs a unique data set to analyze the trading behavior of 4.74 million individual and institutional investors across Mainland China. Results show that groups of individual investors with varying trade values (as proxies for wealth levels) engage in different trading strategies. Chinese institutions are momentum investors, while less wealthy Chinese individual investors at large are contrarian investors. The results also indicate that a small group of wealthiest Chinese individuals tend to behave like institutions when they buy stocks, and behave like less wealthy individuals when they sell. Furthermore, only the trading activities of institutions and of wealthiest individuals can affect future stock volatility, but those of Chinese individual investors at large have no predictive power for future stock returns.     

Can exchange traded funds be used to exploit industry and country momentum?

There is overwhelming empirical evidence on the existence of country and industry momentum effects. This line of research suggests that investors who buy country and industry portfolios with relatively high past returns and sell countries and industries with relatively low past returns will earn positive risk-adjusted returns. These studies focus on country and industry indexes that cannot be traded directly by investors. This raises the question of whether country and industry momentum effects really can be exploited by investors or whether they are illusionary in nature because they exist only on non-tradable assets. We analyze the profitability of country and industry momentum strategies using actual price data on exchange traded funds (ETFs). We find that over the sample periods during which these ETFs were traded, an investor would have been able to exploit country and industry momentum strategies with an excess return of about 5 % per annum. These returns cannot be explained by unconditional exposures to the Fama–French factors. The daily average bid-ask spreads on ETFs are substantially below the implied break-even transaction cost levels. Hence, we conclude that investors who are not willing or able to trade individual stocks may use ETFs to benefit from momentum effects in country and industry portfolios.     

Stock price reactions to earnings announcements: evidence from Chinese markets

We examine the stock price reactions to changes in earnings per share (EPS) in the Chinese stock markets. We find that domestic A-share investors do not correctly anticipate the changes in earnings and fail to adjust new earnngs information quickly, but international B-share investors can predict earnings changes better than A-share investors. As a result, abnormal returns (ARs) can be obtained by trading on the earnings information, but for A shares only. An explanation is that most A-share holders are individuals with short-term investment horizon while most B-share holders are large institutions that trade on more detailed and accurate financial information not immediately available to A-share holders.     

Information shares in a two-tier FX market

Using several measures of information share, we examine price discovery across the inter-dealer and dealer–customer market tiers in the currencies market. In the spot market, the information share of the inter-dealer tier is higher than that of the dealer–customer one for non-financial sector trades and is lower than the dealer–customer tier for foreign investors’ sell trades. In the forward market, the dealer–customer tier generally has the greater information share at the dealer’s buy side. Our results indicate the market where customers’ trades are the most informative and demonstrate how exogenous events affect price discovery across markets and market tiers.     

Individual and institutional herding and the impact on stock returns: Evidence from Taiwan stock market

Using high frequency intraday data, this paper investigates the herding behavior of institutional and individual investors in the Taiwan stock market. The study finds evidence of herding by both investors but a stronger herding tendency among institutional than among individual investors. Institutional investors herd more on firms with small capitalizations and lower turnovers and they follow positive feedback strategies. The portfolios that institutional investors herd buy outperform those they sell by an average of 1.009% during the 20 days after intense trading episodes. By contrast, individual investors herd more on firms with small sizes and higher turnovers, and they crowd to buy (sell) stocks with negative (positive) past returns. The portfolios that individual investors herd buy underperform those they sell by an average of − 0.829% during the following 20 days. Moreover, these return differences of both investors are more pronounced under a market with higher pressure and among small stocks. These findings suggest that the herding of institutional investors speeds up the price-adjustment process and is more likely to be driven by correlated private information, while individual herding is most likely to be driven by behavior and emotions.     

Are investors consistent in their trading strategies? An examination of individual investor-level data

While it has been demonstrated that momentum or contrarian trading strategies can be profitable in a range of institutional settings, less evidence is available concerning the actual trading strategies investors adopt. Standard definitions of momentum or contrarian trading strategies imply that a given investor applies the same strategy to both their buy and sell trades, which need not be the case. Using investor-level, transaction-based data from China, where tax effects are neutral, we examine investors' buy-sell decisions separately to investigate how past returns impact differentially on the trading strategies investors adopt when buying and selling stock. After controlling for a wide range of stock characteristics, extreme price changes and portfolio value, a clear asymmetry in trading is observed; with investors displaying momentum behavior when buying stocks, but contrarian behavior when selling stocks. This asymmetry in behavior is not driven purely by reactions to stock characteristics or extreme stocks. We discuss behavioral and cultural explanations for our findings.