浅谈德国住房租赁市场发展与成因

在欧盟成员国中,德国的经济实力最强。但德国经过战后近70年的建设,个人拥有住房的比例却不足43%,其余57%全部是租房。有专家分析认为,德国存在庞大的住宅租赁市场是主要原因。德国的房屋租赁市场大体由如下机构组成,一是州、市和乡镇政府早先为低收入者建设的"公共住房"。虽然遭遇财政危机的各级政府正在将这部分住宅私有化,但由于基数太大,市场有限,州、市、乡三级政府手中目前仍掌握着大量的"公共住房"。二是各式各样的     

我国城市住房二级市场的现状表现与评价

发展住房二级市场，完善房地产市场结构，是我国房地产业面临的重要任务，从住房二级市场的组成，二手住宅买卖交易价格和租金的关系，城市间人口迁移与住房二级市场发展的关系等方面，对我国城市住房二级市场的现状和问题进行了分析与评价。     

金融支持云南省经济适用房建设的思考

<正>经济适用住房制度是解决城市低收入家庭住房困难政策体系的组成部分。发展经济适用房对于解决云南省城市低收入家庭住房困难,确保房地产市场健康发展有积极作用。近年来,云南省经济适用房建设取得较大成绩,但由于诸多因素,我省金融对经济适用房的支持呈现弱化的趋势,不利于促进低收入家庭     

从住房属性谈我国保障性住房发展走向

住房问题既是经济问题,更是民生问题,现阶段房价过高、上涨过快加大了居民通过市场途径解决住房问题的难度,住房保障问题成为社会关注焦点,第十届中国城市住宅研讨会的主题即为“可持续城市发展与保障性住房建设论坛”。目前我国保障性住房建设领域还存在一些问题,在借鉴国际经验的基础上,提出完善保障性住房体系的模式与政策选择,明确我国保障性住房的未来发展走向是当务之急。     

住房公积金用于经济适用房建设有关问题的探讨

2008年末，国务院办公厅在关于促进房地产市场健康发展的若干意见中提出，探索住房公积金闲置资金用于经济适用房建设的试点工作。随后，住房和城乡建设部部长姜伟新在全国建设工作会议上透露，高达6000亿元的闲置公积金开闸投放经济适用房建设。消息一出，立即引来激烈争论，有赞同的、有反对的，言之凿凿。本文亦就有关问题进行探讨。     

住房市场:干预策略的制度性设想

1对住房市场干预的反思近年住房市场干预的反思。2004年以来,针对房地产住宅市场价格过快增长问题的新老"国八条",以及去年以来的"国六条"等一系列调控政策陆续不断地出台。     

关于上海经济适用住房若干问题的研究

经济适用住房是为了解决中低收入家庭的住房问题和有效需求不足问题。它的产生解决了一定的市场矛盾,但仍需解决经济适用住房建设的融资、开发建设的机制、产权、配售管理与金融服务体系,以及经济适用住房与商品房、空置商品房和二三级房地产市场的结合等相关问题。     

保障性住房委托贷款业务相关问题研究

今年初，国务院正式颁布“关于利用住房公积金贷款支持保障性住房建设试点实施意见》（以下简称《实施意见》），建设部起草的（（住房公积金支持经济适用房等住房建设试点指导意见（征求意见稿）》（以下简称“试点指导意见”），国家提出利用闲置的公积金支持经济适用房等住房建设的试点工作即将启动，高达3000亿元的住房公积金将开闸投放用于经济适用房等保障性住房建设上来.     

经济＋适用——经济适用住房的合理定位

经济适用房政策是我国深化住房体制改革，解决中低收入家庭住房问题实行的一项战略决策。经济适用房目前似乎叫好不叫座。从经济适用房的概念、政策对象、价格、设计规划等四个方面对经济适用房进行了定位，希望通过合理的定位使经济适用房成为名符其实的既经济又适用的大众住房。     

借鉴法国、荷兰经验发展北京住房二级市场

随着北京市住房制度改革的不断深入,住房的商品化使人们的住房观念发生了质的变化。城市居民客观存在的经济收入的差异,使房地产市场必然形成梯级消费。即高收入者购买商品房,中低收入者购买经济适用房或二手房,困难职工租住廉租房。由于占大多数的中低收入者是房地产市场消费的主体,因此住房二级市场必将逐步成为房地产市场的主流。为此,加快搞活住房二级市场,对于保证房地产市场持续发展、盘活市场存量、带动市场增量,进而拉动国民经济增长都具有现实的重要性和紧迫性。 北京的住房二级市场正式启动于     

Duration of Residence in the Rental Housing Market

This paper estimates a proportional hazard model of duration of residence in rental housing over 1987–1998 based on a unique dataset from the BLS-CPI housing sample together with American Housing Survey and other metropolitan economic data. The paper employs an innovative semi-parametric estimation approach for group duration analysis of the proportional hazard model. Results of the analysis indicate that the duration of residence in rental housing varies significantly across individual units and market segments, and is effected by tenant, dwelling, and market characteristics. An improved understanding of duration of residence offers new insights as regards fluctuations in tenant turnover, building occupancy, and rent flows, as well as new confidence in pro forma assumptions critical to rental housing development.     

Understanding Housing Market Volatility

The Campbell–Shiller present value formula implies a factor structure for the price–rent ratio of housing market. Using a dynamic factor model, we decompose the price–rent ratios of 23 major housing markets into a national factor and independent local factors, and we link these factors to the economic fundamentals of the housing markets. We find that a large fraction of housing market volatility is local and that the national factor has become more important than local factors in driving housing market volatility since 1999, consistent with the findings in Del Negro and Otrok (2007). The local volatilities mostly are due to time variations of idiosyncratic housing market risk premia, not local growth. At the aggregate level, the growth and interest rate factors jointly account for less than half of the total variation in the price–rent ratio. The rest is due to the aggregate housing market risk premium and a pricing error. We find evidence that the pricing error is related to money illusion, especially at the onset of the recent housing market bubble. The rapid rise in housing prices prior to the 2008 financial crisis was accompanied by both a large increase in the pricing error and a large decrease in the housing market risk premium.     

关于活跃北京住房二级市场的建议

目前 ,我国各地住房二级市场发展极不平衡 ,北京住房二级市场发展缓慢 ,远远滞后于其他经济发展较快的城市和地区。本文针对这个政府及京城居民都极为关心的问题 ,对制约北京住房二级市场快速发展的主要原因进行分析 ,提出了一些个人看法及建议 ,旨在促进北京住房二级市场的活跃 ,以发挥二级市场在房地产市场中的积极作用 ,形成房地产市场的良性循环 ,尽快解决居民住房困难问题     

The US Housing Market: Asset Pricing Forecasts Using Time Varying Coefficients

The US housing market has experienced significant cyclical volatility over the last twenty-five years due to major structural changes and economic fluctuations. In addition, the housing market is generally considered to be weak form inefficient. Houses are relatively illiquid, exceptionally heterogeneous, and are associated with large transactions costs. As such, past research has shown that it is possible to predict, at least partially, the time path of housing prices. The ability to predict housing prices is important such that investors can make better asset allocation decisions, including the pricing and underwriting of mortgages. Most of the prior studies examining the US housing market have employed constant coefficient approaches to forecast house price movements. However, this approach is not optimal as an examination of data reveals substantial sub-sample parameter instability. To account for the parameter instability, we employ alternative estimation methodologies where the estimated parameters are allowed to vary over time. The results provide strong empirical evidence in favor of utilizing the rolling Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedastic (GARCH) Model and the Kalman Filter with an Autoregressive Presentation (KAR) for the parameters time variation. Lastly, we provide out-of-sample forecasts and demonstrate the precision of our approach.     

Turnovers and Housing Price Dynamics: Evidence from Singapore Condominium Market

Recent real estate literature has not only proposed a few theories to explain the puzzling macro feature of the positive correlation between price and transaction volume, but also attempted to identify the causal relationships between them. However, there is little empirical evidence to explicitly illustrate how housing price dynamics measured by both past price changes and price volatility at housing unit level affect housing turnovers. Using a unique housing transaction database from Singapore condominium market, this paper reveals an interesting housing turnover pattern in response to past housing price dynamics. The results illustrate that the rise and fall of a dwelling’s price can significantly affect housing turnovers in the same direction. Higher volatility reduces housing turnovers. The effects are stronger in the domain of losses and are weakening as the cumulative housing equity rises, implying that a seller withholds the sale in the downswing of a real estate cycle in the hope that the market will rebound. The findings offer some additional micro empirical evidence to the interactions between housing price and transaction volume and imply upwardly biased repeat sales indexes.     

The Q Theory and the Swedish Housing Market—An Empirical Test

We argue that major changes in economic policy have resulted in a more market driven demand for housing investment in Sweden, due to policy changes at the end of the 1980s and the beginning of the 1990s. Tobin’s transparent Q theory is the investment theory used. For the last period of the sample (1993–2003 quarterly data), our results indicate that there exists a high degree of correlation between the Q ratio and the (logarithm of) two different variables for housing investment. An error correction regression model, controlling for structural breaks, also indicates that a stable long-run relationship could be detected for the logarithm of building starts and the Q ratio between 1993–2003, but not between 1981–1992.      

Housing and Mortgage Market Policies in Chile

This study provides a survey of the housing and mortgage market policies applied between 1976 and 1994 in Chile. These policies are implemented within the framework of a free-market economy in which the state plays a subsidiary role in the economic affairs of the nation. Of particular importance to the housing sector have been the elimination of interest rate and rent controls, the elimination of a specialized housing finance system, and the consistent application of an indexation scheme that preserves the real value of monetary contracts and that allows investors the recovery of their funds with a competitive real return.     

Spatial Autocorrelations and Urban Housing Market Segmentation

This paper seeks to let data define urban housing market segments, replacing the conventional administrative or any pre-defined boundaries used in the previous housing submarket literature. We model housing transaction data using a conventional hedonic function. The hedonic residuals are used to estimate an isotropic semi-variogram, from which residual variance–covariance matrix is constructed. The correlations between hedonic residuals are used as identifier to assign housing units into clusters. Standard submarket identification tests are applied to each cluster to examine the segmentation of housing market. The results are compared with the prevailing structure of market segments. Weighted mean square test shows that the defined submarket structure can improve the precision of price prediction by 17.5%. This paper is experimental in the sense that it represents one of the first attempts at investigating market segmentation through house price spatial autocorrelations.     

Dynamic Relationship between Housing Values and Interest Rates in the Korean Housing Market

The goal of this study is to identify the long-term relationship between housing values and interest rates in the Korean housing market, using the cointegration test and spectral analysis. The result shows a long-term negative (–) equilibrium relationship between housing values and interest rates. Moreover, the Granger causality test for confirming the short-term dynamic relationship between these variables shows one-way causality from interest rate to the growth rate of housing values, while the transfer function model demonstrates concretely the causal structure of this relationship. These findings suggest that the interest rate adjustment policy in the Korean housing market can work very effectively and will contribute to forecasting the growth rate of future housing values. This study was supported from the 2003 Daegu University Research Fund