Evolution of a mutual fund market: Empirical analysis of simultaneous growth and decline by fund category in Indonesia

The mutual fund literature traditionally deals with the growth and decline of the funds management industry in a uni-dimensional, single equation framework. Numerous studies treat mutual fund starts, terminations, inflows, and outflows as independent phenomena. This paper investigates the role of the interdependence between mutual fund inflows and outflows and their determinants in the growth of the emerging Indonesian managed funds market. We find significant replacement and displacement effects between the outflows and inflows of fixed income, equity, and mixed funds. The evidence suggests studies of the development of mutual fund markets should take into account simultaneity between the expansion and declining of different fund categories.     

Prudent man or agency problem? On the performance of insurance mutual funds

Active equity mutual funds managed by insurance companies underperform peer funds by over 1% per year. There is no evidence that insurance funds make less risky investments; instead they have lower risk-adjusted returns and their fund flows are less sensitive to performance when they perform poorly. Across insurance funds, those with heavy advertising, directly established by insurers or using parent firms' brandnames, and those whose managers simultaneously manage substantial non-mutual-fund assets, are more likely to underperform. We conclude that insurers' efforts to cross-sell mutual funds aggravate agency problems that erode fund performance.     

Advertising appeals across varying economic and regulatory conditions: A longitudinal content analysis in the mutual fund industry

This research investigates the relationship between the utilization of various appeals in mutual fund advertisements and prevailing market, and regulatory conditions during the period 2000—2009. Mutual fund firms promote their investment products utilizing an array of advertising appeals, including those that highlight performance, product and consistency. We hypothesize that the application of these appeals varies over time and according to market conditions. In addition, the research considers the 2007 regulatory efforts mandating the inclusion of mutual fund expense information in advertisements that promote fund performance. A longitudinal content analysis is utilized to survey the presence and prevalence of various advertising appeals by mutual fund providers in Money magazine from 2000 to 2009. Results reveal that appeal usage varies over time and by market performance. Appeals focusing on performance and product are strongly correlated with market performance, whereas appeals relating to trust are correlated with subpar market performance. In addition, the use of cost information, broadly defined, has become more important over the 2000–2009 period independent of market performance. The implications of these findings and their relationship to government regulation are also discussed.     

Advertising in the mutual fund business: The role of judgmental heuristics in private investors' evaluation of risk and return

Effective advertising strategies are of growing importance in the mutual fund industry due to keen competition and changes in market structure. But the dominant variables in financial decision making, investor's perceived investment risk and expected return, have not yet been analysed in an advertising context, although these productrelated evaluations can be influenced by advertising and therefore serve as additional indicators of advertising effectiveness. In this study, the authors use a large-scale experimental study (n=499) to detect how risk-return assessments of private investors are influenced by specific elements of print ads. In this context, judgmental heuristics used systematically by private investors play a crucial role.     

Do fire sales create externalities?

We develop three novel measures of the incentives of equity mutual funds to internalize the price impact of their trading. We show that mutual funds with stronger incentives to internalize their price impact accommodate inflows and outflows by adjusting their cash buffers instead of trading in portfolio securities. As a result, stocks held by these funds have lower volatility, and flows out of these funds have smaller spillover effects on other funds holding the same securities. Our results provide evidence of meaningful fire sale externalities in the equity mutual fund industry.     

Family Matters: Rankings Within Fund Families and Fund Inflows

Abstract:  This paper examines the influence of the position of a fund within its family on its subsequent net-inflows. Our empirical study of the US equity mutual fund market shows that reaching a top position within the family leads to large inflows. These inflows accrue beyond those expected, given the performance of the fund in its respective market segment. The effect is much stronger in large families than in small families. We also find that inflows significantly increase if a fund moves into the top positions within its family from one year to another. These results lead to competition within the fund family and to important risk taking incentives for fund managers.     

Bank affiliation and mutual funds’ trading strategy distinctiveness

This study investigates the effect of commercial bank affiliation on mutual fund trading strategy distinctiveness. We find that bank affiliation has a significantly positive relationship with mutual funds’ unique investment strategies, and this phenomenon exhibits better performance, supporting the benefits of bank affiliation. This association is most pronounced around macroeconomic releases, during high economic policy uncertainty periods, and among funds located within a close distance from their parent bank headquarters. Further analysis indicates that the more talented affiliated fund managers tend to pursue the distinctive strategy. Therefore, our evidence reveals that the underlying mechanisms are that affiliated funds own information advantages or hire more skilled fund managers due to the unique position of commercial banks in the economy. Finally, our results suggest that affiliated funds with a higher Strategy Distinctiveness Index attract stronger net inflows and are less exposed to risks. Our findings remain unchanged after several robustness tests.     

Informativeness of mutual fund advertisements: Does advertising communicate fund quality to investors?

We uncover a positive relation between advertising expenditures and skill in the mutual fund industry. Motivated by economic signaling models, we find that funds advertising in magazines outperform their peers by 83 basis points in the subsequent year. We determine that the performance differential between advertising and nonadvertising funds is largest when investment opportunities are high and persists for 36 months. Generally, the positive relation between advertising expenditures and future fund flows is not sensitive to the content of the advertisements and is strongest when investor attention is high.     

Attracting Flows by Attracting Big Clients

We explore a new channel for attracting inflows using a unique data set of corporate 401(k) retirement plans and their mutual fund family trustees. Families secure substantial inflows by being named trustee. We find that family trustees significantly overweight, and are reluctant to sell, their 401(k) client firm's stock. Trustee overweighting is more pronounced when the relationship is more valuable to the trustee family, and is concentrated in those funds receiving the greatest benefit from the inflows. We quantify this flow benefit and find that inclusion in the 401(k) plan has an economically and statistically large, positive effect on inflows.     

Why Do Fund Families Release Underperforming Incubated Mutual Funds?

Although the average incubated mutual fund outperforms nonincubated funds by up to 3.41% annually, a large number of released funds underperform during incubation. We find that launching underperforming incubated mutual funds is associated with objectives that attract large inflows and lower relative risk. These findings are consistent with the use of incubation to maximize fee revenue through means other than the flow‐to‐performance relationship. We also find that underperforming incubated funds are incubated longer suggesting that families release funds opportunistically to take advantage of outperformance when it is observed.     

Targeted advertising and advertising avoidance

I examine how the increasing ability of firms to target their ads influences market outcomes when consumers have access to advertising‐avoidance tools. Although firms generally benefit from improved targeting, consumers need not. I also show that there may be too little blocking of ads in equilibrium and consider the role of targeted advertising when niche firms compete against mass‐market firms.     

Reputation stretching in mutual fund starts

This study examines the role of reputation stretching in the context of mutual funds. We show that the reputation stretching strategy increases net fund inflows to new funds run by well-performing fund managers and yields a net increase of fund inflows to fund families. Reputable fund managers exhibit one-year performance persistence for managing new funds, which can help investors assess managers when selecting funds. We also find that the decrease in information asymmetry associated with managerial reputation benefits investors by leading to an increase in new fund returns in the short run, compared to those of new funds run by managers without track records. Overall, the reputation stretching strategy benefits both investors, by reducing information asymmetry and improving investment returns, and fund families, by increasing net fund inflows to new equity funds.     

Does Motivation Matter When Assessing Trade Performance? An Analysis of Mutual Funds

We relate the performance of mutual fund trades to their motivation.A fund manager who buys stocks when there are heavy investoroutflows is likely to be motivated by the belief that the stocksare significantly undervalued. In contrast, when there are heavyinflows, the manager is likely to be motivated to work off excessliquidity by buying stocks. Our analysis reveals that managersmaking purely valuation-motivated purchases substantially beatthe market but are unable to do so when compelled to investexcess cash from investor inflows. A similar, but weaker, patternis found for stocks that are sold. (JEL G11, G29)     

Inexperienced investors and bubbles

We use mutual fund manager data from the technology bubble to examine the hypothesis that inexperienced investors play a role in the formation of asset price bubbles. Using age as a proxy for managers’ investment experience, we find that around the peak of the technology bubble, mutual funds run by younger managers are more heavily invested in technology stocks, relative to their style benchmarks, than their older colleagues. Furthermore, young managers, but not old managers, exhibit trend-chasing behavior in their technology stock investments. As a result, young managers increase their technology holdings during the run-up, and decrease them during the downturn. Both results are in line with the behavior of inexperienced investors in experimental asset markets. The economic significance of young managers’ actions is amplified by large inflows into their funds prior to the peak in technology stock prices.     

Performance Chasing,Fund Flows and Fund Size in Real Estate Mutual Funds

Real estate mutual funds have grown dramatically in number, size, scope and assets under management over the last 15 years, but little assessment is evident. The present study addresses this limitation. Better prior period performance is associated with greater shares of fund inflows for a period. Returns, however, are negatively associated with increased fund flows and fund size. Investors chase past performance limiting fund managers’ ability to optimize investments. Under normal market conditions, but departing from typical mutual fund performance, real estate mutual fund returns generally exceed relevant benchmarks on a before expenses basis and match benchmark returns after expenses. The ability to meet and exceed benchmark returns, however, does not hold during the financial crisis period. Overall, more established funds are shown to have higher returns while fund turnover is not a determinant of returns.     

Changing Names with Style: Mutual Fund Name Changes and Their Effects on Fund Flows

We examine whether mutual funds change their names to take advantage of current hot investment styles, and what effects these name changes have on inflows to the funds, and to the funds' subsequent returns. We find that the year after a fund changes its name to reflect a current hot style, the fund experiences an average cumulative abnormal flow of 28%, with no improvement in performance. The increase in flows is similar across funds whose holdings match the style implied by their new name and those whose holdings do not, suggesting that investors are irrationally influenced by cosmetic effects.     

Commercial bank mutual fund activities: Implications for bank risk and profitability

This paper examines the risk structure of bank holding companies and the effect of mutual fund activities on bank risk and profitability over the period 1987–1994. Findings from structural change tests indicate a significant decline in bank risk occurred near the mid-point of the study. Results from a confirmatory factor analytic model employed to examine the impact of mutual fund activities on banks suggest that mutual fund activities moderated bank industry systematic risk during the sample period. Mutual fund activities also increased the profitability of banks. These results suggest that mutual funds represent a productive avenue of expansion for bank holding companies.     

The Icahn Manifesto

The title of this opening chapter in the author's new book on activist investors refers to Carl Icahn's solution to the “agency” problem faced by the shareholders of public companies in motivating corporate managers and boards to maximize firm value. During the 1960s and '70s, U.S. public companies tended to be run in ways designed to increase their size while minimizing their financial risk, with heavy emphasis on corporate diversification. Icahn successfully challenged corporate managers throughout the 1970s and 1980s by buying blocks of shares in companies he believed were undervalued and then demanding board seats and other changes in corporate governance and management. This article describes the evolution of Icahn as an investor. Starting by investing in undervalued, closed‐end mutual funds and then shorting shares of the stocks in the underlying portfolio, Icahn was able to get fund managers either to liquidate their funds (giving Icahn an arbitrage profit on his long mutual fund/short underlying stocks position) or take other steps to eliminate the “value gap.” After closing the value gaps within the limited universe of closed‐end mutual funds, Icahn turned his attention to the shares of companies trading for less than his perception of the value of their assets. As the author goes on to point out, the strategy that Icahn used with such powerful effect can be traced to the influence of the great value investor Benjamin Graham. Graham was a forceful advocate for the use of shareholder activism to bring about change in underperforming—and in that sense undervalued—companies. The first edition of Graham's investing classic, Security Analysis, published in 1934, devoted an entire chapter to the relationship between shareholders and management, which Graham described as “one of the strangest phenomena of American finance.”     

Does concurrent management of mutual and hedge funds create conflicts of interest?

This paper shows that conflicts of interest may exist in cases where a hedge fund manager starts a mutual fund but not in the opposite case. We compare performance, asset flows, and risk incentives to establish several key differences between these two scenarios: First, prior to concurrent management, hedge fund managers experience worse performance while mutual fund managers achieve better performance relative to their full-time peers. Second, hedge fund managers who choose concurrent management are disproportionately the ones with less experience. Their hedge funds tend to suffer a decline in performance after the event. By contrast, mutual fund managers who choose concurrent management tend to outperform their full-time peers. Based on our findings, we make important recommendations for policy makers and companies. The relevance of our recommendations extends beyond the small share of companies presently engaged in concurrent management.     

When should firms share credit with employees? Evidence from anonymously managed mutual funds

We study the choice between named and anonymous mutual fund managers. We argue that fund families weigh the benefits of naming managers against the cost associated with their increased future bargaining power. Named managers receive more media mentions, have greater inflows, and suffer less return diversion due to within family cross-subsidization, but departures of named managers reduce net flows. Naming managers became less common between 1993 and 2004. This was especially true in the asset classes and cities most affected by the hedge fund boom, which increased outside opportunities for, and the cost of retaining, successful named managers.