浙江省新型农村养老保险参保意愿影响因素分析

农村养老保险参保意愿的影响因素有很多种,主要是年龄、人均年收入、受教育水平、人均土地面积以及家庭子女数,其中年龄、受教育水平、人均年收入和人均土地面积对参保意愿具有正向影响,而家庭子女数则具有负向影响。     

农村老年人对照护主体的依赖程度与影响因素的实证研究——基于湖南省1097个样本分析

随着我国人口老龄化的加剧,农村老年人的养老问题日益严峻,农村老年人对照护主体的依赖程度是反映养老问题的一个重要方面。研究利用"2014年湖南省农村老年人养老问题问卷调查"的数据,运用SPSS19.0软件对影响农村老年人照护主体依赖程度的因素进行分析。结果显示,农村老年人对照护主体的依赖程度受到年龄、婚姻状况、文化水平、自评健康状况、居住情况、在本村的月收入水平等因素的影响显著,性别、子女数对照护主体的依赖程度影响不显著。     

维吾尔族老年人的机构养老意愿研究

本文基于700份新疆哈密市伊州区维吾尔族老年人的问卷调查数据,系统探讨了维吾尔族老年人的机构养老意愿。研究发现,机构养老已成为维吾尔族老年人的一种重要养老途径。本文利用多分类Logistic回归模型分析发现,年龄、自理能力、慢性病、汉语水平、子女数量、养老观念、社会宗教活动、社区关系以及居住地是维吾尔族老年人机构养老意愿的显著影响因素,其中汉语水平、养老观念、社会宗教活动、社区关系、居住地是重要影响因素。由此,本文建议,应发展医养结合的机构养老模式,在养老服务方面考虑不同民族老年人的生活习俗,由政府主导宣传和提倡多元化养老观念,引导社会舆论,促进维吾尔族养老资源加入社会养老服务体系并发挥其在本民族中的养老优势。     

农村社区居家养老服务需求强度的实证分析——基于辽宁省S镇农村老年人的问卷调查

基于辽宁省S镇农村社区老年人居家养老服务需求调查发现,农村社区居家养老更加符合农村老年人的养老意愿。依据克雷顿·奥尔德弗"ERG"需求层次理论,将农村老年人需求分为生活照料、医疗保健、精神赡养三个层次。通过李克特量表法衡量居家养老服务需求强度得出,农村老年人所需的医疗保健和精神赡养与生活照料相比需求强度较高。运用spearman相关系数模型测算了年龄、性别、生活自理能力、婚姻状况、健康自评等因素对居家养老服务需求强度的影响程度。为此,我国发展农村居家养老服务需要尊重老年人的养老意愿,以居家养老服务需求强度为依据实施精准供给,积极完善农村社会化养老服务政策支持体系,逐步满足农村社区老年人的养老需求。     

互助与津贴:中国农村养老问题的特殊性及其对策研究——基于CLASS(2014)的分析

在城镇化、老龄化以及"孝"文化传统的三重背景下,农村养老问题显示出了家庭养老功能减退、土地保障功能削弱以及社区和机构养老资源缺失三个趋势。在现状方面,农村老年人具有对生活照料的需求更为强烈、对精神慰藉的需求更强以及经济来源更加缺乏的特点。由此,在家庭养老功能减退以及社区和机构养老功能发展不足的背景下,本文为缓解农村养老问题提出了相应的政策建议,即鼓励各种形式的互助养老实践、设立农村老人照顾津贴以及重视离乡子女对老年照料的支持。     

失独家庭养老方式的创新探讨

失独家庭因复杂的社会原因导致其家庭养老缺失、政府和社会关怀不足、养老机构入住困难、缺乏持续的制度保障、心理与精神障碍比较突出、社会融入困难,这些问题正在影响着数百万老年家庭的正常生活。从完善社区照护体系,构建多元主体参与帮扶失独家庭的体系,促进养老机构向社会化、专业化发展,完善失独家庭的制度保障,重视失独家庭老年人心理和精神关照等方面关注失独家庭养老对策的构建与完善,对促进社会保障体系的整体完善极具时代意义。     

农村老年人代际经济反馈的影响因素分析——基于CHARLS全国基线调查数据

农村老年人代际经济反馈是本土化家庭养老研究领域的重要问题。论文运用"中国健康与养老追踪调查"(CHARLS)全国基线数据,以亲子两代分居家庭为研究对象,通过非条件logistic模型,分析了微观领域影响农村老年人代际经济反馈的因素。研究结果表明:在个体因素层面,年龄对代际经济反馈呈现正向显著性影响,受教育程度则为负向显著性影响;在家庭因素层面,子女数量以及对孙辈的投资状况等因素对农村老年人代际经济反馈存在着正向显著性影响。基于数据结果,论文提出了加强对农村高龄老年人的关注、加快农村养老制度建设以及积极提升家庭发展能力等对策。     

新农保对农村家庭代际支持的影响

本文使用中国健康与养老追踪调查（CHARLS）2013与2015年的全国追踪调查数据,采取模糊断点回归方法,分析新型农村社会养老保险政策对农村家庭代际支持的影响效应。研究发现,新农保养老金收入使得抚养孙辈的时间投入显著增加,帮助子女照顾孙辈的概率也有所增加,子女对父母的时间支持变化较小;新农保养老金“挤出”了子女对父母的经济支持金额,但父母对子女的经济支持没有显著变化;新农保养老金增大了父母对儿子后代的时间支持,父母对女儿后代的时间支持没有受到新农保的显著影响。上述实证结论对探讨现有养老模式,构建更完善的社会养老体系,提供了初步的理论依据,具有一定现实意义。     

社会支持对老年人养老意愿的影响分析

在人口老龄化和家庭规模小型化的背景下,老年人养老意愿也在发生变化。本文基于一项关于老年人口生活质量与家庭代际关系的调查,在考虑个人基本特征和社会支持的情况下,运用Logistic回归模型对老年人养老意愿进行实证分析。研究表明,老年人社会支持对社会养老意愿存在负相关关系,即社会支持少的老年人相比社会支持多的老年人更倾向于选择社会养老。另外,老年人的养老意愿还受婚姻状况、收入水平和健康状况的影响。     

湖北省农村中老年人的机构养老意愿及其影响因素研究——基于计划行为理论的个人意志因素

随着"空心化"现象的加剧、传统家庭养老功能的弱化,我国农村养老形势越来越严峻。机构养老将是我国养老模式发展的必然趋势。本文以深入湖北省农村入户采访所得的微观数据为基础,采用Logit二元回归模型,利用SPSS 19.0软件分析了农村中老年人的机构养老意愿及其影响因素。结果表明:湖北省农村中老年人选择机构养老的意愿很低,仅为10.34%。基于计划行为理论分析其个人意志视角的影响因素得出,湖北省农村中老年人机构养老意愿的影响因素主要是:行为态度因素中浓厚的传统孝道观念、对养老机构伙食的认知;主观规范因素中子女和邻居的态度;知觉行为控制因素中对养老机构收费的承担难度。依据分析提出,要提高农村中老年人的机构养老意愿,缓解农村严峻的养老形势,应从稀释农村中老年人的传统孝道观念、加快当地经济发展、修正其对养老机构认知等角度入手。     

Almanac of anticipations: The age of affluence—of anticipation—of anxiety—of automation—of discontinuity—of longing—of overkill—of space exploration

With this survey of developments in the futures field since 1945, I.F. Clarke completes his present series for Futures. He makes two major points: that forecasting techniques have become essential tools in the management of change; and that nuclear weapons and ecological problems have added a moral dimension to the study of the future. In the next issue of Futures he will start a new series on the range of future-thinking in the USA, from the expectations of the first settlers to the Star Wars programme.     

社会主义所有制形式的改革、完善与共产党执政能力的提高

在中国,所有制形式的调整、改革与完善,先进生产力的发展,党的执政能力建设,是社会主义建设过程中密切结合在一起的三个不同层面的发展关系.应在相互促进和共同提高中促进社会的和谐发展,保证社会主义现代化建设战略目标的顺利实现.     

基金公司经营融资融券业务的问题审视

融资融券业务正式运营已经开展,为证券市场带来了革命性的改革,作为证券市场的一大主体,基金公司面对融资融券也迎来了新的发展方向和挑战,本文从融资融券业务的运行机制入手,分析了基金公司融资融券的新契机,并对其即将面临的问题进行审视和剖析,进而提出策略建议.     

对基层人民银行科技工作的几点建议

银监会分设后,人民银行将专司货币政策、金融稳定、金融服务三大职能。作为人民银行的分支机构,基层人民银行的工作重心也将从金融监管调整到这三大职能上来。人民银行的科技部门,就要积极运用科技手段,为人民银行履行新的职能发挥“服务、支持、促进、发展”的作用。一、围绕三大职能搭建五大平台经过“六五打基础、七五作准备、八五大发展”几个阶段后,人民银行相继实现了核算电算化、清算网络化和办公信息化。特别是近一两年来,陆续开通了大额支付系统、信贷登记咨询系统、会计四集中系统、金融信息服务网站等系统,人民银行信息化水平又…     

Properties of time-series estimates of degree of leverage measures

Empirical studies suggest that time-series regression estimates of the degrees of operating and financial leverage have a tendency to produce measures less than one. According to ex ante theory, these measures should be greater than one for firms operating above the breakeven point. There have also been suggestions that the biases in these estimates may be attributable to an underlying increase in unit sales. This work presents evidence that these counter-intuitive measures are produced by changes in the firm's operating parameters (unit price, variable cost, fixed cost and interest payments). It further suggests that attempts to control for the underlying change in unit sales substantially increase the volatility of predicted estimates.     

浅议金融机构的举证责任

金融纠纷案件是当事人以存单或进账单、对账单、存款合同、保险单、票据、证券等凭证为主要证据向人民法院提出诉讼的案件,对于不同种类金融纠纷的当事人的举证责任,我国现行的金融法律、法规及司法解释有不同的规定。由于金融机构的特殊法律地位,发生金融纠纷时存在有关当事人将最后偿付风险转移给金融机构承担的主观故意,在客观上会使金融机构难以提供相应的证据来对抗不法债权人的诉讼请求,而导致金融机构败诉。为此,对金融诉讼案件中金融机构的举证责任加以研究具有重要的实践意义。     

The Usefulness of Measures of Consistency of Discretionary Components of Accruals in the Detection of Earnings Management

Abstract:  Prior research has shown the prevalence of measurement error in models used to estimate aggregate discretionary accruals. In these models, the incremental information content of the various components of accruals is ignored. Limited prior research and data gathered from firms under Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) litigation indicate that managers use either one or more than one component of accruals simultaneously, in a consistent way to manipulate bottom-line earnings in a given direction. I propose two measures that capture the consistency between the discretionary components of accruals and test their significance in earnings management (EM) detection in firms that have artificially added accrual manipulation and firms that were targeted by the SEC for accrual manipulation. There is evidence that this information is incrementally useful in detecting EM. This finding paves the way for improvements in the discretionary accruals measure by including consistency information from the components of aggregate accruals.     

Summary of Results of Survey of Seminar Attendees

Abstract

The Society of Actuaries undertook a three-phase research project on mortality improvement in the three NAFTA countries: Canada, Mexico, and the U.S. Phase 1 consisted of a literature review of papers on projecting mortality levels in the future and a study of the trend in mortality improvement during this century. Phase 2 consisted of a discussion of different facets of modeling mortality rates at a seminar attended by 79 experts (actuaries, demographers, economists, and medical researchers) representing different countries. The last session of the seminar consisted of the completion of a survey by the attendees to obtain input for Phase 3, which would analyze the impact of mortality improvement on the social security system of each country. This paper summarizes the results of the survey.

The survey results illustrate the difficulty in forecasting mortality levels, because the effects of many factors that could have significant impact on mortality rates are unknown. This suggests the need for dynamic forecasting, which allows for the possibility of random shocks. A majority of the survey respondents believe that stochastic forecasting models, despite their complexity, have significant potential to add value. Respondents also believe that both historical data and cause-specific mortality forecasts are useful as input and also in validating forecasts of the aggregate levels of mortality. The challenge is to develop more sophisticated forecasting models to produce results that are relatively easy to interpret and to communicate these results to the desired audiences, including the public and policymakers.

The survey results suggest that the aggregate effect of lifestyle changes, medical advances, diseases, catastrophe, and physical environmental changes is an increase in life span. However, there is much uncertainty about the future. Respondents expect that beyond the year 2020 the mean annual rate of reduction in mortality for males age 65 and over will average about 0.58% for Canada, 0.76% for Mexico, and 0.67% for the U.S. The results for the female age 65 and over population are 0.64%, 0.83%, and 0.70%, respectively. The age 65 and over population is expected to see larger percentage reductions in mortality than the 0–14 and 15–64 populations. The reductions in male and female mortality will be ultimately the same, and the mortality levels in the three countries will ultimately converge, although differences may persist for decades.     

Separation of Unit of Account from Medium of Exchange

The separation of a unit of account (UoA) from a medium of exchange (MoE) in the commodity–money system is investigated by considering explicitly a seller's choice of UoA in terms of either an MoE or a unit of metal weight. If the likelihood of debasement of an MoE and its rate are high enough, the price is posted in terms of a unit of metal weight rather than an MoE. Interestingly, this MoE–UoA separated equilibrium yields the flexible nominal price, whereas an MoE–UoA integrated equilibrium yields the sticky one. This implies the nominal price rigidity in the fiat‐money system where MoE and UoA are integrated.