持续经营审计意见、分析师跟踪与融资约束

以2011-2016年我国A股上市公司数据为研究样本,运用现金—现金流敏感性模型,研究持续经营审计意见及分析师跟踪对融资约束的影响。研究发现：持续经营审计意见的出具加剧了上市公司面临的融资约束;分析师跟踪人数越多,上市公司面临的融资约束越小;分析师跟踪能够缓解被出具带强调事项段持续经营无保留审计意见公司的融资约束,加剧被出具其他持续经营审计意见（保留意见、无法表示意见和否定意见）公司的融资约束。     

财务业绩、投资评级与股票收益

以Z证券公司2014年5月至7月间发布的208份投资评级报告为研究样本,实证检验了上市公司财务业绩、投资评级与股票收益之间的关系.结果表明:证券分析师更倾向于给予上市公司积极的投资评级,且随着证券分析师对上市公司投资评级积极程度的增强,目标价在其未来约定的期间内越发难以实现;若投资者严格遵循证券分析师的投资评级进行投资,总体上可以获得超过市场平均收益水平的超额收益;相对于单纯考虑财务业绩或事件的投资评级,综合财务业绩与事件共同影响的投资评级会带来更高的收益.     

券商跟踪海外上市公司对国内分析师盈余预测准确性的影响

本文选取分析师对A股上市公司盈余预测数据,在分析师层面研究券商跟踪海外上市公司带来的效应。研究发现,国内券商跟踪海外上市公司后,其国内分析师对同行业A股公司的盈余预测准确性有显著提高,即券商跟踪海外上市公司会给国内分析师带来溢出效应。进一步研究发现,这种溢出效应对于经验丰富的分析师以及跟踪信息环境较差公司的分析师更加显著。本研究对于全面认识券商海外业务的溢出效应及分析师盈余预测准确性的影响因素具有理论和现实意义。     

上市公司信息环境和分析师的盈利预测——来自中国上市公司的经验证据

分析师在证券市场中扮演着重要角色,而上市公司信息环境则直接将影响分析师作用的发挥。本文研究了我国上市公司信息环境对分析师预测行为的影响。实证研究表明：公司信息环境越差,证券分析师将越少使用历史会计信息,分析师向证券市场传递的增量信息就越多,相对历史会计信息而言,分析师预测信息的竞争力就越高。由于国内研究上市公司信息环境的文章相对较少,所以本文为国内分析师的盈利预测及相关研究提供了一个新视角。     

管理层业绩预告违规与分析师监管

本文从外部治理的角度考察了分析师对业绩预告违规的影响及其对监管制度的替代作用。研究结果表明,分析师跟踪可以显著降低上市公司业绩预告违规的概率;进一步控制分析师跟踪规模后发现,有明星分析师跟踪以及来自高声誉券商的分析师数量越多、分析师预测分歧度越低,预测越准确,这种治理作用越显著。但是分析师的监管作用仅在上市公司受监管较弱时有效,对受监管力度较强上市公司的业绩预告违规行为则没有显著影响,表明分析师对业绩预告的治理效应仅在监管力度较弱时发挥作用,成为监管制度的有效替代。本文拓展了我国分析师研究的领域与视角,并为监管部门信息披露制度的制定与执行提供了新的经验证据。     

按下葫芦浮起瓢:分析师跟踪与盈余管理途径选择

本文使用2006-2014年的中国上市公司数据,研究了分析师跟踪对企业应计盈余管理和真实盈余管理的不同作用。在控制了内生性和其它相关因素的基础上,本文发现:分析师对应计盈余管理具有监督效应,能够减少应计盈余管理;相反,其对真实盈余管理具有促进作应,跟踪分析师越多,企业真实盈余管理越多。本文对这一现象的解释是:与应计盈余管理相比,真实盈余管理具有较高的隐蔽性,分析师易于监督隐蔽性较差的应计盈余管理,这种监督迫使经理人转向真实盈余管理。本文的结论有助于全面认识和评价分析师的治理作用,指出了分析师跟踪的缺陷,为完善分析师的治理职能提供理论支持和经验证据。     

公司财务绩效对分析师跟进的影响研究——以我国创业板上市公司为例

证券分析师在资本市场发挥了重要作用。本文以2009年至2013年我国创业板上市的公司为样本,研究了公司财务绩效对证券分析师跟进的影响。研究结果表明,公司财务绩效越好,分析师跟进人数越多,证明了我国证券分析师在对上市公司进行盈利预测时主要依赖的信息是公司财务信息。     

证券分析师VS统计模型:证券分析师盈余预测的相对准确性及其决定因素

本文使用2005年35家券商对我国上市公司做出的每股盈余预测数据,考察了证券分析师盈余预测相对于统计模型的相对准确性及其决定因素。我们发现,我国证券分析师做出的盈余预测,同以年度历史数据为基础的统计模型得出的盈余预测相比,预测误差较小,证券分析师盈余预测具有一定的优势;但同某些以季度历史数据为基础的统计模型得出的盈余预测相比,预测误差较大,证券分析师盈余预测不具有优势。我们同时考察了决定证券分析师盈余预测相对准确性的决定因素。我们发现,公司每股盈余的波动性越大,公司上市越晚,跟踪公司的分析师越多,证券分析师的优势就越大。我们的研究对证券分析师以及投资者都有一定的启示作用。     

会计师事务所变更、分析师关注度与私有信息精度

上市公司会计师事务所变更事件对证券分析师的行为及预测精确度会产生什么样影响，是解读许多上市公司估值超常变更的关键。本文以2010-2019年分析师跟踪人数和私有信息精度数据为研究样本，结合上市公司会计师事务所变更信息，探讨了事务所变更对证券分析师行为的影响。研究结果发现：事务所变更事件会导致分析师减少对公司的跟踪，负向影响公司的市场关注度和估值；而仍保持跟踪的分析师则会加大信息收集和分析力度，增大私有信息精度。进一步的研究还发现，事务所、分析师和公司三个层面的异质性都会对上述关系产生影响：事务所从大所变更为小所的降级变更中，分析师的跟踪数量显著减少，而小所变更为大所的升级变更中，分析师的私有信息精度显著增大；相比明星分析师及来自大券商平台的分析师，非明星分析师和来自小券商平台的分析师呈现出明显的“重升弃降”特征；公司的国有属性和信息披露透明度可以缓解事务所变更带来的负面影响。     

A股上市公司融资租赁公告效应实证研究

以2007—2015年A股发布融资租赁业务公告的上市公司为研究对象,采用事件研究法实证研究融资租赁公告效应。结果表明:A股上市公司融资租赁公告能够带来显著为正的超额收益;截面回归数据表明融资租赁公告的超额收益与税率弱相关、与破产成本显著负相关、与关联交易行为显著正相关;债务互补型的公司开展融资租赁业务会降低公司的价值,信息不对称问题并不会对融资租赁超额收益产生明显影响。     

Politician as venture capitalist: Politically-connected VCs and IPO activity in China

This study examines the impact of venture capitalists' (VC) political connections on their portfolio companies. Specifically, we use a manually-collected dataset of VCs' political connection to investigate the potential benefits and costs that politically-connected VCs bring to their portfolio companies. On the benefit side, we find that companies backed by politically-connected VCs are more likely to obtain IPO approval from the Chinese Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC, China's counterpart to the SEC in the US). On the other hand, these VCs are more likely to acquire equity in the company at a significant discount and to invest shortly before the IPO application. In addition, we find that politically-connected VC-backed companies do not experience greater improvements in financial performance, corporate governance, or innovation output subsequent to receiving venture financing. Our results further show that companies backed by VCs with political connections are less mature and experience more underpricing at their IPO than non-politically-connected VC-backed companies. Finally, we find that, compared to non-politically-connected VCs, politically-connected VCs exit earlier after a company's IPO and that their portfolio companies experience greater post-IPO underperformance and performance volatility.     

风险投资对创业板IPO折价影响的实证研究

本文以截至2011年6月30日在我国创业板上市的236家公司作为研究对象,研究风险投资对创业板IPO折价的影响。研究发现：（1）有风险投资参与的企业IPO折价显著高于无风险投资参与的企业,支持声誉效应假说,即风险投资机构以IPO折价来提早退出投资项目,以此来建立自己的声誉,从而吸引更多的资金流入;（2）在对有风投参股的投资公司做进一步分析后发现一一随着风投参与度的增大,IPO调整折价率并未出现明显的提升,创业板企业IPO时风险投资机构的数量、风险投资机构持股比例与调整折价率关系不显著。     

Going public: The role of accounting and shareholder value in making sense of an IPO

This study draws on interviews with corporate executives from four companies that went public and financial analysts involved in evaluating these firms. Top managers in all companies became more focused on short-term financial results than they had been when the companies were private. We contribute to existing research by analyzing, empirically and theoretically, the processes producing this focus. Following an IPO process offered a unique insight into a gradual increase in emphasis on accounting metrics through the outcomes of guided and restricted sensemaking. When preparing for the IPO, guided sensemaking produced an IPO prospectus incorporating quantitative and qualitative commitments. Quantitative commitments were based on accounting metrics, such as earnings per share and profit margin, which provided an important foundation for the financial focus. These commitments became the anchor for subsequent sensegiving and restricted sensemaking when the companies were listed. With the financial analysts as the social anchors, the richer communication in the prospectus was narrowed down to comprise an exclusive focus on the quantitative accounting commitments. The long-term accounting commitments in the prospectus were transformed into short-term targets that must be met when the financial measures served as specific and concrete extracted cues to quickly provide structure to the uncertain situation, gain the financial analysts’ confidence and sustain action. One year after the IPO, the financial focus was taken for granted and managers had accepted the rules of the game.     

Chaebol-affiliated analysts: Conflicts of interest and market responses

Some Korean business groups, or chaebols, have a large stake in securities firms that issue analysts’ reports on their member companies. This structure is unique in that industrial companies and securities firms are affiliated and operate within the same group. We investigate the informational content of earnings forecasts, stock recommendations and target prices made by the chaebol-affiliated analysts, using data collected between 2000 and 2008. The chaebol analysts tend to make more optimistic earnings forecasts for the member companies. The mean EPS forecast error (5.36%) of the affiliated analysts for the same chaebol company are significantly larger than that (3.23%) of other chaebol and independent analysts. The chaebol analysts also assign better recommendations by almost one level and set target prices 2.5% higher to the member companies after controlling for company and analyst characteristics. These results are consistent with the hypothesis that chaebol analysts’ reports are biased by conflicts of interest. Stock market reactions do not differ in response to announcements of stock recommendations issued by affiliated vs. non-affiliated analysts. This suggests that capital markets do not recognize the conflicts of interest inherent in chaebol analysts’ reports.     

独立董监之适任性、影响力与新上市柜公司初期评价之关系

台湾新上市柜(IPO)公司自2002年2月19日起须依照“上市上柜审查条例”设置二席以上独立董事和一席以上独立监察人,集团企业与总经理兼任董事长职务之公司依规定尚应聘任较多之席次。本研究探讨独立董监之适任性、影响力与IPO公司初期评价间之关系。实证结果指出,独立董事具执业会计师资格、曾担任上市柜公司的董事长、总经理或副总经理,以及相对于最终控制者之董事席次比率愈大,市场解读为适任性佳,愈具有影响力,对承销价制定、投资人初期评价有正向之作用。就独立监察人而言,并束发现独立监察人专业背景对IPO初期评价具攸关性。     

The impact of reputation on analysts’ conflicts of interest: Hot versus cold markets

During periods of high IPO underpricing, unaffiliated all-star analysts from high reputation banks issue fewer strong-buy recommendations while unaffiliated all-star analysts from low reputation banks do not change their level of optimism. In contrast, unaffiliated non-star analysts from both high and low reputation banks issue more strong-buy recommendations. Consistent with the results on analyst optimism, the market reacts more favorably to strong-buy recommendations by unaffiliated all-star analysts from high reputation banks than other unaffiliated analysts during high IPO underpricing periods. Finally, we find that unaffiliated non-star analysts from low reputation banks reduce their coverage following an SEO if they are not selected as a part of the managing syndicate. Collectively, our results indicate that during periods of high IPO underpricing unaffiliated analysts face conflicts of interest, but personal-level reputation, and to a lesser extent bank-level reputation, plays a role in reducing this bias.     

Economic freedom and cross-border venture capital performance

We investigate the determinants of cross-border venture capital (VC) performance using a large sample of 10,205 cross-border VC investments by 1906 foreign VC firms (VCs) in 6535 domestic portfolio companies. We focus on the impact of a domestic country's economic freedom on the performance of both VC investments and portfolio companies using a probit model and the Cox hazard model. After controlling for other related factors of domestic countries, portfolio companies, VCs and the global VC market, as well as year and industry fixed effects, we find that a domestic country's economic freedom is crucial to cross-border VC performance. In particular, in a more economically free country, as measured by the raw values of, quartiles of or the ranking in the index of economic freedom (IEF), a foreign VC-backed portfolio company is more likely to pull off a successful exit through an IPO (initial public offering) or an M&A (merger and acquisition), and a foreign VC firm is likely to spend a shorter investment duration in the portfolio company. We also identify interesting evidence on the impact of many other level factors of domestic countries, portfolio companies, VCs and the global VC market on cross-border VC performance.     

Venture capital reputation and investment performance

I propose a new measure of venture capital (VC) firm reputation and analyze its performance implications on private companies. Controlling for portfolio company quality and other VC-specific factors including experience, connectedness, syndication, industry competition, exit conditions, and investment environment, I find companies backed by more reputable VCs by initial public offering (IPO) capitalization share (based on cumulative market capitalization of IPOs backed by the VC), are more likely to exit successfully, access public markets faster, and have higher asset productivity at IPOs. Further tests suggest VCs’ IPO Capitalization share effectively captures both VC screening and monitoring expertise. My findings have financial implications for limited partners and entrepreneurs regarding their VC-sorting activities.     

ST公司并购现金支付方式决定因素研究——基于并购方与目标方双视角

采用 Logistic 模型,基于 ST 公司分别作为并购方和目标方双视角,考量中国资本市场并购活动中决定支付方式的市场因素、公司因素和交易因素。结果表明,市场因素中商业周期指标越积极,并购双方越愿意选择非现金支付;市场利率越高,越倾向于以现金支付。ST 公司为并购方时支付方式选择受到管理者控制权、分析师数量和交易态度等因素的决定;ST 公司为目标方时支付方式选择受到公司财务杠杆、公司成长机会、分析师数量和交易态度等因素支配。不同的并购支付方式会对并购后企业产生不同的效应。     

Urban Economic Openness and IPO Underpricing

This paper represents a first attempt to employ a macroeconomic approach to explain the high and varying IPO underpricing within a single emerging market. We examine the empirical impact of trade openness on the short-run underpricing of initial public offerings (IPOs) using city-level data. Particularly, we argue that urban economic openness (UEO) has a significant impact on the productivity and on prices of both direct and indirect real estate due to productivity gains of companies in more open areas. This in turn positively affects the firm’s profitability, enhancing the confidence in local real estate markets and future company performance, hence decreasing the uncertainty of the IPO valuation. As a result, issuers have less incentive to underprice IPO shares. We use a sample of Chinese real estate IPOs, which offer a suitable laboratory thanks to their strong geographic investment patterns focused locally and a country with a highly heterogeneous openness across regions. Controlling for traditional firm- and issuing-specific characteristics of IPOs that are used for developed markets and Chinese-related features (i.e. listing location and state ownership), we find the evidence that companies investing in economically more open areas experience less IPO underpricing. Our results show great explanatory power and are robust to different specifications.