中国艺术品投资收益:离岸与在岸市场的特征和互动

文物艺术品既是一个国家的历史印记和文化瑰宝,也是情感资产和动产。本文基于2000-2017年全球艺术品核心市场——北京、香港、纽约和伦敦核心拍卖行中国书画的微观数据,使用特征价格法构建全球中国艺术品市场价格指数,展示全球中国艺术品拍卖市场发展的全貌,同时创新性地使用重复交易数据探讨离岸和在岸中国艺术品市场投资特征和互动关系。研究表明:北京和香港市场作为中国艺术品最大的在岸和离岸拍卖市场价格相互联动,走势基本一致;艺术品财务收益和精神回报是艺术品投资收藏和消费的主要原因,不同市场间财务收益和风险分散的差异是艺术品市场资产配置和资金流动的动力;纽约和伦敦市场中国艺术品投资收益率低于北京和香港,香港是全球中国艺术品投资收益率最高的地区,重复交易中的北京-香港交易策略占优,离岸香港市场得天独厚的环境优势使香港中国艺术品市场未来发展前景可期。     

One Security,Many Markets: Determining the Contributions to Price Discovery

When homogeneous or closely-linked securities trade in multiple markets, it is often of interest to determine where price discovery (the incorporation of new information) occurs. This article suggests an econometric approach based on an implicit unobservable efficient price common to all markets. The information share associated with a particular market is defined as the proportional contribution of that market's innovations to the innovation in the common efficient price. Applied to quotes for the thirty Dow stocks, the technique suggests that the preponderance of the price discovery takes place at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) (a median 92.7 percent information share).     

Transmission of shocks from cross-listed markets to the return and volatility of domestic stocks

This paper examines the transmission of information from German and the U.S. markets to domestic markets using daily price and volume data of 264 stocks from 26 countries that are traded in their home country and cross-listed outside their home market as depository receipts (DRs); in the German market as Global Depository Receipts (GDRs) and in the U.S. as American Depository Receipts (ADRs). We identify days with significant news arrivals in a market through minimum thresholds for both significant absolute price change and trading volume. DR returns and volatilities are affected by the shocks in the markets where they are cross-listed controlling for domestic shocks. Contemporaneous and/or lagged shocks to the cross-listed markets are transmitted to domestic stock returns and volatilities. South American DRs are affected mostly by U.S. shocks, while Eastern European DRs show greater reaction to the German shocks.     

Measuring equity market integration using uncorrelated information flows: Tokyo,London and New York

Equity markets do not pass all overnight information into prices instantly at the opening of trade. We adjust open-to-close return series for non-instantaneous information absorption and then use adjusted series to measure integration among three major equity markets. Because the adjusted daytime return series are uncorrelated, we can accurately measure the size, and identify the sources, of transmissions. Overnight news, as represented by foreign open-to-close returns, explains 13% of opening price variation (close-to-open returns) in New York, 14% in Tokyo and 30% in London. For New York and Tokyo, the largest influences come from the market that trades immediately prior (London and New York respectively) whereas opening price variation in London is linked closer with New York than Tokyo. Foreign volatility spillovers are also significant, and subject to asymmetric effects.     

An Investigation on Information Transmission Between Stocks of Far Eastern Countries and Their American Depositary Receipts

Domestic stocks and their American depositary receipts (ADRs) are essentially twin securities listed in the home country and United States, respectively. Accounting for exchange rates and market friction, their prices should move in tandem if international markets are efficient. In reality, however, their returns are close but sometimes differ dramatically. This study hypothesizes that changes in trading volume and macro events can lead investors between two equity markets to generate heterogeneous expectations or interpretations, causing returns on one security to deviate from those on the other. The results show that changes in past domestic volume do affect current ADR returns, implying that volume contains additional information not in prices. It is also found that important macro events, especially bad news, trigger significant differences in returns between domestic shares and their ADRs. These results support our argument that heterogeneous expectations prolong price information transmission between two equity markets.     

Linkages among European and world stock markets

Causal relations and dynamic interactions among equity returns in ten countries for the period 1983–1994 are analysed. An innovation accounting approach based on a multivariate vector autoregressive (VAR) model is used to estimate the proportion of each market return's forecast error attributable to innovations in foreign market returns. Three major results appear. The variance decompositions indicate a strong degree of economic interaction among stock markets. The US stock market has a considerable influence on stock market performance in almost every country, while there is no substantial inter-continental influence from the European stock markets on the world's two largest equity markets in New York and Tokyo. Finally, the pattern of the impulse-response functions illustrates a rapid international transmission of stock market events, supporting the hypothesis of international stock market efficiency.     

Price Discovery for Segmented US-Listed Chinese Stocks: Location or Market Quality?

Abstract:  This study extends the cross-listing literature by examining how, and to what extent, the trading of cross-listed China-backed ADRs on the New York Stock Exchange contributes to information flows and price discovery for the corresponding stocks traded in China's A-share market. We find that the cross-listed US prices and Chinese prices are not cointegrated in the long-run and the home market plays a far more important role in both price discovery and volatility spillover than does the US market. The home bias hypothesis still holds for the segmented Chinese A-share market and the location where price discovery actually originates is the essential factor in the process of international information transmission.     

Do bulls and bears move across borders? International transmission of stock returns and volatility

This article investigates empirically how returns and volatilitiesof stock indices are correlated between the Tokyo and New Yorkmarkets. Using intradaily data that define daytime and overnightreturns for both markets, we find that Tokyo (New York) daytimereturns are correlated with New York (Tokyo) overnight returns.We interpret this result as evidence that information revealedduring the trading hours of one market has a global impact onthe returns of the other market. In order to extract the globalfactor from the daytime returns of one market, we propose andestimate a signal extraction model with GARCH processes.     

The Week-End Effect in Common Stock Returns: The International Evidence

This paper examines the daily stock market returns for four foreign countries. We find a so-called “week-end effect” in each country. In addition, the lowest mean returns for the Japanese and Australian stock markets occur on Tuesday. The remainder of the paper answers four questions. Are seasonal patterns in foreign stock markets independent of those previously reported in the U.S.? Do Japan and Australia exhibit a seasonal one day out of phase due to different time zones? Do settlement procedures across countries bias week-end effects? Does the seasonal pattern in foreign exchange offset the week-end effect in stocks for Americans investing overseas?     

The dynamics of price discovery for cross-listed shares: Evidence from Australia and New Zealand

This paper studies the dynamics of price discovery for markets with bilateral cross-listings. Using a sample of four Australian stocks cross-listed in New Zealand and five New Zealand stocks cross-listed in Australia for the period January 2002 to December 2007, we assess Hasbrouck (1995) information shares and Grammig et al. (2005) conditional information shares over time. We observe that in both cases the home market is dominant in terms of price discovery. However, when studying price discovery over time, we find that the importance of the Australian market (the larger of the two markets) is increasing for both Australian and New Zealand domiciled firms. Finally, using panel regression analysis, we find that the growth in the importance of the Australian market is positively related to the growth in the size of the firm and negatively related to the size of the percentage spread in the Australian market, implying that as firms grow larger and their cost of trading in Australia declines, the Australian market becomes more informative.     

Price leadership and asynchronous movements of multi-market listed stocks

We examine the asynchronous price movements of the same assets traded on multiple markets, each of which has its unique characteristics. Differently from the existing literature, we use a dynamic structural Vector Autoregressive (VAR) setting to explore the effects of market-wide and idiosyncratic shocks on both home and host listings. We find strong evidence that foreign prices lead home prices, but not the reverse effect. Contrary to theory predictions, investors in the firms’ home market respond to idiosyncratic fluctuations in the stock returns in the host markets. Our results suggest that investors pay attention to fluctuations in the stocks listed on the more institutionally developed markets.     

Stock Returns in Thinly Traded Markets

We examine the share price behavior of thinly traded NASDAQ National Market System stocks during periods when financial markets are open but the individual stocks do not trade. The absence of trade allows us to isolate the effect of nontrading from that of market closure. We find that nontrading stocks have negative mean returns and lower variances regardless of whether markets are open or closed. Two-day returns that include one nontrading day have a mean daily return of -0.226% compared to +0.164% for two-day returns over consecutive trading days. Two-day returns that include one nontrading day have only 3.8% higher variance than one-day returns. We conclude that the relation between transaction arrival, mean returns, and volatility depends on whether a stock is trading and not simply on whether the market is open.     

Do foreigners facilitate information transmission in emerging markets?

Using the degree of accessibility of foreign investors to emerging stock markets, or investibility, as a proxy for the extent of foreign investments, we assess whether investibility has a significant influence on the diffusion of global market information across stocks in emerging markets. We show that greater investibility reduces price delay to global market information. We also find that returns of highly investible stocks lead those of noninvestible stocks because they incorporate global information more quickly. These results are consistent with the idea that financial liberalization in the form of greater investibility yields informationally more efficient stock prices in emerging markets.     

U.K. and U.S. trading of British cross-listed stocks: an intraday analysis of market integration

This article analyzes intraday patterns for U.K. and U.S. tradingof British cross-listed stocks. For each market, the intradaypatterns for these stocks closely resemble those of otherwisesimilar, non-cross listed stocks. There is a 2-hour period eachday when cross-listed stocks are traded both in New York andin London. This overlap is characterized by concentrated tradingas private information, originating in New York, gets incorporatedinto prices in both markets. Cross-border competition for orderflowtends to reduce already declining spreads in London. By contrast,New York specialists maintain     

行为模型新解及其实证检验

在以信息逐步扩散和投资者有限理性为主要假设的行为模型中，特定信息交易者和市场信息交易者的比例对股价行为有着重要影响：当特定信息交易者占多数时，个股收益更容易呈现正自相关；当市场信息交易者占多数时，个股收益更容易呈现负自相关。该模型可以解释成熟股市中存在基于总收益的动量效应，而中国股市中不存在基于总收益的动量效应，仅存在基于公司特定收益的动量效应；并解释了市场平均收益呈现负自相关等。另外，实证分析支持了传统的CAPM和APT定价模型中的带越小，动量效应越显著的结论。     

全球股票市场交易费用变动趋势研究

各国证券交易所为提高市场质量和增强国际竞争力,进行了股票市场交易费用结构与费率的频繁调整。本文首先总结了美国、英国、日本、香港等国家和地区交易所现行交易费用的结构特征,并以纽约证券交易所和伦敦证券交易所为案例估算了交易费率的调整比率。其次,本文运用2002年至2010年期间主要海外证券交易所的财务数据和市场数据,分析交易费用变动与交易所经营业绩的互动关系。最后,我们对欧美市场交易费用的大幅下调进行了成因分析,并探讨我国证券交易所内外部环境及经营特点与海外市场存在的差异,提出相关启示和思考。     

International order flows: Explaining equity and exchange rate returns

Macroeconomic models of equity and exchange rate returns perform poorly at high frequencies. The proportion of daily returns that these models explain is essentially zero. Instead of relying on macroeconomic determinants, we model equity price and exchange rate behavior based on a concept from microstructure–order flow. The international order flows are derived from belief changes of different investor groups in a two-country setting. We obtain a structural relationship between equity returns, exchange rate returns and their relationship to home and foreign equity market order flow. To test the model we construct daily aggregate order flow data from 800 million equity trades in the U.S. and France from 1999 to 2003. Almost 60% of the daily returns in the S&P100 index are explained jointly by exchange rate returns and aggregate order flows in both markets. As predicted by the model, daily exchange rate returns and order flow into the French market have significant incremental explanatory power for the daily S&P returns. The model implications are also validated for intraday returns.     

Stock returns and economic forces—An empirical investigation of Chinese markets

This study finds evidence that a better macroeconomic climate and an improvement in liquidity help to explain Chinese stock returns. There is no evidence to support the hypothesis that growth in dividend yields can predict stock returns. The sectoral stock returns in China's markets are correlated with stock returns in the US markets as evidenced by: (i) a positive correlation with US stock returns; (ii) a significant negative error correcting term; (iii) a negative response of Chinese stocks to financial stress in the US market; and (iv) a positive correlation with a depreciation in the China/US exchange rate.     

Is technical analysis profitable on a stock market which has characteristics that suggest it may be inefficient?

This paper considers the returns to technical analysis on the New Zealand stock market. The small nature, short-selling constraints, lack of analyst coverage, and loose insider trading regulation suggest that the New Zealand equity market may be less efficient than overseas markets. This raises the possibility that technical analysis is still profitable in New Zealand. Using a bootstrapping technique with common null models for stock returns and 12 popular technical trading rules, we find that the returns to technical analysis in New Zealand follow a similar pattern to those in large offshore markets. Technical analysis is no longer profitable.     

DETERMINANTS OF THE EXECUTION COSTS OF COMMON STOCK TRADES BY INDIVIDUAL INVESTORS

Data on a large sample of transactions in common stocks by individual investors over a nine-year period are examined to identify factors that influence the magnitude of the price concessions those investors experienced in trades executed on the New York and American Stock Exchanges. Among the factors that appear to have an influence on such “execution costs” are the exchange where the security involved is traded and the direction of the price movement in the security on the day of the trade. The size of the trade, the price of the stock, and the volatility of price, however, do not seem to have an effect. There is also little indication that execution costs have declined over time as the securities markets have become less subject to regulation.