金融中心评价指标体系研究

本文在综述国内外关于金融中心评价指标体系的基础上，分析了影响金融中心形成和运行的因素，依据国际金融中心的形成和运行具有较高相关度的原则，构建了包括经济环境、金融市场、金融机构和金融制度四方面内容的评价指标体系，利用2004年东京、新加坡、香港、北京、上海、广州和深圳七个城市的数据，依据层次聚类分析方法对这些城市所处的层次进行定位：北京、广州和深圳成为一类，为金融中心的初级阶段；上海成为第二类，为国内金融中心阶段；香港和新加坡成为一类，是区域国际金融中心；东京处于最高阶段．是真正的国际金融中心。最后对这些城市的发展前景进行了预测。     

上海国际金融中心 砥砺奋进 磅礴不息——2020年第7期封面回眸

"国际金融中心排名,中国4城跻身前十,上海首次位列全球第三!"最新出炉的《第28期全球金融中心指数报告》显示,全球前十大金融中心排名依次为:纽约、伦敦、上海、东京、香港、新加坡、北京、旧金山、深圳、苏黎世。其中,上海评分再次快速上升,超过东京首次进全球前三。从这个衡量国际金融中心实力的权威指标可见,上海国际金融中心影响力得到多维度、全方位提升。     

国际金融中心竞争力评估研究

本文设计与实施了一套国际金融中心综合竞争力评价指标体系，通过对六个金融中心城市的因子分析与聚类分析，提炼关键要素与核心指标，并对纽约、伦敦、东京、新加坡、香港与上海的金融中心竞争力能级、现状及趋势作了较为客观而系统的研究。     

国际金融中心与国际航运中心关系探析——兼论上海"两个中心"联动发展

进入21世纪以来,金融中心已经成为一个国家经济金融发展的制高点和参与全球资源竞争和分配的核心.金融中心发展源于航运中心,世界著名的五大国际航运巾心纽约、伦敦、东京、新加坡和香港同时也都是著名国际金融中心的成功经验表明.围际航运中心与国际金融中心不是彼此孤立的,而是一种相辅相成、相互融合、兴衰与共的关系.2009年4月,国务院审议通过关于推进上海加快发展现代服务业和先进制造业、建设国际金融中心和国际航运中心的意见.明确了建设"两个中心"的战略定位和重点,冀望以航运服务业的发展促进国际金融中心建设.     

泛珠合作背景下深圳“金融中心”的定位问题研究

香港和珠三角因素是深圳金融发展定位最重要的区位优势。同时，此外深圳也具有建立区域性产业创新金融中心的现实优势。但该定位仍然面临着诸如上海、北京、香港等城市的竞争、国家宏观政策与金融规制的制约以及国际规则的冲击等挑战。以中小板块发展成创业板为契机，实现以创新型区域性产业融资为主、从属于香港国际金融中心、具有国际影响力的地区金融中心，既是深圳金融发展的目标定位也是必然的实现国际化的路径选择。     

深港金融合作的深层原因剖析

深圳和香港两地的金融业唇齿相依,香港提升自己的国际金融中心地位离不开深圳,深圳金融产业转型以及推进我国金融改革和人民币国际化同样也需要与香港的合作。香港既是国际金融中心,也是中国与世界链接的最佳渠道,深圳不可能独自发展成为一个国际性金融中心甚或全国性金融中心,深圳金融建设的目标宜定位于区域性金融中心,与香港的定位互补,实行紧密合作,与香港形成共存共进的关系。     

国际金融功能区建设对首都金融功能区建设的政策启示

金融功能区是现代经济中城市建设和产业布局的重要载体和空间形态.伦敦和纽约是发展成熟的两大国际金融中心城市,香港和新加坡是亚太区域两大金融中心城市,这些金融中心城市发展的成功经验之一就是:它们都有若干能承载金融产业发展的国际金融功能区.     

亚洲主要金融中心发展现状及优劣势分析

在2013年10月伦敦金融城发布的第14期全球金融中心指数中,亚洲多个城市名列前茅。本文从亚洲主要金融中心形成的历史渊源出发,运用详实的数据比对,分别从城市规模、经济总量、银行业、证券业、保险业以及外汇市场等多个角度,解读了香港、新加坡和上海等金融中心在亚洲乃至世界的金融地位。并结合上述地区的金融定位及市场特点,分析了其进一步深化国际金融中心建设的优势和劣势。     

亚洲主要金融中心发展现状及优劣势分析

在2013年10月伦敦金融城发布的第14期全球金融中心指数中,亚洲多个城市名列前茅。本文从亚洲主要金融中心形成的历史渊源出发,运用详实的数据比对,分别从城市规模、经济总量、银行业、证券业、保险业以及外汇市场等多个角度,解读了香港、新加坡和上海等金融中心在亚洲乃至世界的金融地位。并结合上述地区的金融定位及市场特点,分析了其进一步深化国际金融中心建设的优势和劣势。     

国际金融中心评价指数比较研究

金融中心评价指数对于度量评估现有金融中心、预测其发展潜力、判别新金融中心的产生,以及决定国际市场对金融要素的配置具有重要的引领作用。本文通过对国际成熟型金融中心评价指数CFCI和IFCD INDEX的对比分析,从理论基础、指标体系以及排位次序等方面进行评述,进而构建国际金融中心评价指数核心类指标体系。该指标体系在涵盖基础设施建设、金融生态环境营造、人力资源体系构建、专业服务提供、监管框架搭建以及税收支持政策等核心要素下,突出国际金融中心建设、发展与创新三个重要的评价因素,以期为我国国际金融中心建设提供理论支撑与实践依据。     

Dynamic Modeling of Tail Risk: Applications to China, Hong Kong and Other Asian Markets

In this paper, we study the extreme dependence between the markets in Hong Kong, Shanghai, Shenzhen, Taiwan and Singapore. The tail dependence coefficient (TDC), which measures how likely financial returns move together in extreme market conditions, is modeled dynamically using the Multivariate Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity model with the time-varying correlation matrix of Tse and Tsui (Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 20(3):351–363, 2002). The time paths of the TDC indicate that Hong Kong stocks had the highest extreme dependence during the Asian financial crisis and their TDCs have followed an increasing trend since 2006. The results in this paper also show that the TDC pattern of Singapore with the other markets is very similar to the TDC pattern of Hong Kong with the other markets. An increasing trend in the extreme dependence between Shanghai A Share Index and Shanghai B Share Index and between the Hang Seng Index and the Hong Kong China Enterprise Index is observed from 2002 to 2007. A substantial rise in the TDC between Shenzhen A Share Index and Shenzhen B Share Index was recorded after the China market reforms in 2005. Our TDC modeling with Asian market data provides evidence that Asian markets are becoming integrated and their extreme co-movements during financial turmoil are becoming stronger.     

Banks and the emergence of Hong Kong as an international financial center

Hong Kong is generally recognized as one of the premier international financial centers (IFCs) in the world. Its position has owed much to the opening of opportunity in the People's Republic of China since 1978, as well as the territory's long-standing reputation for transparency and efficiency in the provision of financial services. Less commonly recognized are the origins of Hong Kong's expertise in international banking and the prominent position that it commanded in the first few decades after the Second World War. This article seeks to clarify the development of Hong Kong as an international banking center in the first years after the War. The unique combination of laissez-faire government policy and a vibrant traditional local banking system catapulted Hong Kong to regional and global importance in the 1950s and 1960s and formed the basis for its later prominence as an IFC.     

Does Trading Volume Contain Information to Predict Stock Returns? Evidence from China's Stock Markets

This paper examines empirical contemporaneous and causal relationships between trading volume, stock returns and return volatility in China's four stock exchanges and across these markets. We find that trading volume does not Granger-cause stock market returns on each of the markets. As for the cross-market causal relationship in China's stock markets, there is evidence of a feedback relationship in returns between Shanghai A and Shenzhen B stocks, and between Shanghai B and Shenzhen B stocks. Shanghai B return helps predict the return of Shenzhen A stocks. Shanghai A volume Granger-causes return of Shenzhen B. Shenzhen B volume helps predict the return of Shanghai B stocks. This paper also investigates the causal relationship among these three variables between China's stock markets and the US stock market and between China and Hong Kong. We find that US return helps predict returns of Shanghai A and Shanghai B stocks. US and Hong Kong volumes do not Granger-cause either return or volatility in China's stock markets. In short, information contained in returns, volatility, and volume from financial markets in the US and Hong Kong has very weak predictive power for Chinese financial market variables.     

Nonlinear interdependence of the Chinese stock markets

The methodologies and assumptions in financial integration studies are problematic and may lead to spurious empirical results. Using surrogate data analysis and the mutual prediction method of testing for nonlinear interdependence, it is feasible for an analyst, with a scant knowledge of the underlying dynamics of two dynamical systems, to show whether or not the systems are interdependent. This study applies these techniques in testing for nonlinear interdependence of three Chinese stock markets: Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Hong Kong. The empirical results of the present study indicate that the stock market series are nonlinear and that the Chinese stock exchanges are nonlinearly interdependent. Specifically, the evidence indicates that Shanghai and Shenzhen markets are bi-directionally interdependent, while Shanghai and Hong Kong as well as Shenzhen and Hong Kong markets are unidirectionally interdependent, with the direction of interdependence going from the mainland's markets to the Hong Kong market.     

全球金融危机下的人民币国际化路径研究

2008年全球金融危机使改革以美元为核心的国际货币体系成为共识,这也为人民币实现区域化、国际化开创了一个历史契机。本文认为,应以人民币债券为突破口,推动香港成为人民币离岸金融中心,推动人民币成为区域储备与投资货币,实现区域化;在此过程中,香港应首先成为人民币国际结算中心,而后建立成清算型的人民币离岸中心,为人民币、港币、澳币事实上的一体化及人民币国际化奠定基础。     

Price Linkages in Asian Equity Markets: Evidence Bordering the Asian Economic, Currency and Financial Crises

This paper examines price linkages among Asian equity markets in the period surrounding the recent Asian economic, financial and currency crises. Three developed markets (Hong Kong, Japan and Singapore) and six emerging markets (Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, the Philippines, Taiwan and Thailand) are included in the analysis. Multivariate cointegration and level VAR procedures are conducted to examine causal relationships among these markets. The results indicate that there is a stationary relationship and significant causal linkages between the Asian equity markets. Nevertheless, lower causal relationships that exist between the developed and emerging equity markets suggest that opportunities for international portfolio diversification in Asian equity markets still exist.     

Office Property Returns in Shanghai,Guangzhou, and Shenzhen

Commercial property development in China has been a growth industry in recent years. This article examines the returns on office property in the three major cities of Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen in the period 1991 to 1997. Analyses based on the Security Market Line (SML) show that property investments in the office sector in Shanghai and Guangzhou have excess returns and that Shanghai office property tends to dominate the optimal portfolios due to its superior risk-adjusted returns. While equal returns in Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen cannot be rejected, the Shanghai office property is subject to the least systematic risk, compared with all other cities. Hong Kong office property is included only in the less risky optimal portfolios. In addition, our results indicate that there is little correlation between the office property returns in Hong Kong and the office property in Guangzhou and Shenzhen. Guangzhou and Shenzhen office markets, which are geographically relatively close to Hong Kong, tend to be more volatile than the Shanghai office market. However, owing to Shenzhens proximity to Hong Kong, there is significant correlation between the returns of the office property in Shenzhen and the office property in Hong Kong.     

Looking for risk premium and contagion in Asia-Pacific foreign exchange markets

This article tests pure contagion effects among four Asian foreign exchange markets, namely, Japan, Hong Kong, Singapore, and Taiwan during the 1997 Asian crisis. A conditional version of international capital asset pricing model (ICAPM) in the absence of purchasing power parity (PPP) is used to control for economic fundamentals or systematic risks. The empirical results show strong contagion effects in both conditional means and volatilities of those markets after systematic risks have been accounted for. Specifically, the contagion-in-mean effects are mainly driven by the past return shocks in Hong Kong, Singapore, and Taiwan. As for contagion in volatility, the lead/lag relationships appear to be multidirectional among Japan, Singapore, and Taiwan, but between Hong Kong and Singapore, and between Hong Kong and Taiwan, they are unidirectional, with Hong Kong playing the dominant role in generating negative volatility shocks. In addition, the conditional ICAPM with asymmetric multivariate general autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic in mean (MGARCH(1,1)-M) structure is able to explain/predict on average 17.28% of the return variations in those markets. Therefore, this study provide a further evidence that the time-varying risk premium is a very strong candidate in explaining the predictable excess return puzzle [Lewis, K. K. (1994). Puzzles in international financial markets. NBER Working Paper No. 4951] since the risk premia founded in this article are not only statistically significant but also economically significant.     

香港人民币离岸中心发展的机遇与挑战

香港人民币离岸中心建设已成为高层共识,前景光明,并已取得初步成果。它与内地的金融改革是协同推进的,有助于巩固香港金融中心地位,促进东亚经贸繁荣。来自其他国际金融中心的竞争,以及与大陆金融市场在利率、汇率等核心金融指标上的差异,是香港人民币离岸中心发展的重要挑战。展望其发展,有如下建议:采取适当的财政货币手段化解离岸与在岸市场的利率和汇率差异;循序渐进、逐步完善香港人民币离岸市场的货币功能;打通人民币"回流"和"外循环"的通道,支持香港成为全球人民币资产的交易、清算和定价中心。     

关于打造中国国际金融中心的评析与思考

本文讨论了国际金融中心成立的条件,考察了伦敦、纽约、香港、东京成为国际金融中心的历程,分析了中国城市一香港、上海、北京建设国际金融中心的机遇和挑战,并从战略的高度,讨论、评析了中国建设国际金融中心的相关问题。