超越房市的救市之争

美国救市实质是在挽救金融危机,而中国只是单纯的提出挽救房地产市场。中国的房地产市场是存在泡沫的,房地产市场持续健康发展,必须挤压出累积的泡沫。因此,人为中断调整只会埋下更大的隐患。我国的房地产市场目前成交量低迷,这正是市场步入自然调整状态的信号。房地产价格的调整可以促使房地产市场回归理性,促进产业间的均衡发展和有利于自主创新。当前,我们应认清房地产市场问题的根本原因,更多地关注市场运行规则和监管机制,而不是纠缠救市之争。     

超越“救市之争”

今年以来,我国资本市场出现连续非理性暴跌行情,投资者信心濒临崩溃,市场陷入前所未有的恐慌和危机之中,有关"救市"的呼声也此起彼伏。从理论上重新认识和界定政府与资本市场之间的关系显得十分必要。资本市场失灵是政府实施干预的理论依据,但要谨防超越边界的"资本市场抑制"。为此,必须超越似是而非的"救市"之争,推动资本市场深化及基础制度建设。     

救市之争

胡舒立：不能救,亦不必救;水皮：特殊的年份,就必须用特殊的政策;霍德明：坚决反对用下调印花税来激活股市。     

救市之争

胡舒立：不能救,亦不必救;水皮：特殊的年份,就必须用特殊的政策;霍德明：坚决反对用下调印花税来激活股市。     

外资暗战房市

在房价上涨和人民币升值的双重推动下,外资大量投向我国房地产市场,涉及房地产开发、消费以及中介等多个环节。来自商务部的备案显示,截至2011年3月24日,仅3月份外资新设或者增资的房地产公司就出现井喷,高达39家。     

杭州房市:机遇还是风险

火爆的杭州房地产市场,是否正常?繁荣的背后是否危机初露端倪?高昂的房价是否能挤出泡沫?市场今后的走势究竟如何?当\"炒房如炒股\"的新现象被各媒体发现并以各种角度大肆渲染,杭州房市从未像今天这样吸引住所有市民乃至全国人的眼球.但是今天,我们需要的是理性的观察和思考,观其表象之外,我们更关注其内在的运行规律,从而得出合乎市场真相的理性的分析和判断.     

加息的房市解读

2010年10月19日晚,中国加息了。而此时的发达国家正在推出进一步的量化宽松政策,加固经济复苏的基础。此时的中国呢?三季度的统计数据尚未公布,但央行应该已经近水楼台先得月。那么?究竟加息剑指何处?在众多解读版本中,本文以     

扑朔迷离的房市变局

虎年来到,最大的看点莫过于房市。节前的《蜗居》一房难求,道出了生活在大城市的艰辛;节后至今又可谓焦点不断,令人目不暇接,俨然是《老大的幸福》的另一个版本。焦点事件回放:2月25日,国家统计局公布了《2009年国民经济和社会发展统计公报》,数据显示,2010年70个     

房市将走向哪里

中国房地产与货币、财经政策的调整和世界金融市场的发展都有密切的关系。随着金融危机的缓解,全球和中国的经济发展模式都经历着一场深刻的变局,中国房地产市场必然也会随之改变其原有发展模式。在和讯网主办的“后危机时代的地产金融突破”峰会上,来自学术界和金融系统的两位专家,对近期政策的走势进行了研判。     

美国经济是否已进入衰退前期

在经济周期预测中,对经济衰退前期或经济衰退临界点的早期确认,比对经济衰退本身的确定更重要难度也更大.在美国,对经济衰退的官方正式确定比衰退实际发生至少滞后6个月,在此之前无法完全确定衰退是否已形成.     

安危与共 金融应考

当下,疫情反复、隐蔽性强,考问着公共卫生安全;线上攻击、非法窃听,挑战着网络信息安全;通信诈骗、非法集资,考验着经济金融安全……可见,新时代新形势不仅需要新的发展观、改革观,还呼唤与日俱新的安全观。2020年4月15日是第五个全民国家安全教育日,今年的主题是:坚持总体国家安全观,统筹传统和非传统安全,为决胜全面建成小康社会提供坚强保障。“总体国家安全观”涵盖政治、经济、科技、网络、生态等诸多领域,创造性地提出了富有中国特色的国家安全价值观念、机制路径与工作思路,为中国继续创造发展奇迹保驾护航。     

Financial Crisis and Credit Crunch in the Housing Market

We investigate the recent financial crisis with an emphasis on the interlock among housing, mortgage, and credit markets. Following Geanakoplos (Econometric Society Monographs 2:170–205, 2003, 2010), we develop a model in which both prices of the mortgage and its collateral are simultaneously and endogenously determined. Our empirical tests confirm the model’s prediction that an adverse change in the risk free rate or the loan recovery rate can trigger the financial crisis as we observed. Finally, we discuss how the pro-cyclical leveraging practice by financial intermediaries can magnify their losses in mortgage-related assets and consequently cause significant contraction in the balance sheets of these firms.     

金融加速器对住房市场财富效应的影响研究

本文拟以新凯恩斯主义经济理论为基础,在DSGE模型中的缺乏耐心家庭和住房开发企业两个部门中引入信贷约束考虑金融摩擦,以研究金融加速器对住房市场财富效应的影响。模型结果表明:(1)贷款价值比的降低能使货币政策很好地达到稳定住房价格泡沫的目标,从而有效防范金融系统性风险。(2)贷款价值比的降低会使外生冲击对住房市场的财富效应影响更显著,从而能有效防范经济硬着陆风险。(3)金融加速器的引入使房价收入比对通货膨胀冲击和货币政策冲击的脉冲响应十分敏感。     

Stressed,Not Frozen: The Federal Funds Market in the Financial Crisis

We examine the importance of liquidity hoarding and counterparty risk in the U.S. overnight interbank market during the financial crisis of 2008. Our findings suggest that counterparty risk plays a larger role than does liquidity hoarding: the day after Lehman Brothers' bankruptcy, loan terms become more sensitive to borrower characteristics. In particular, poorly performing large banks see an increase in spreads of 25 basis points, but are borrowing 1% less, on average. Worse performing banks do not hoard liquidity. While the interbank market does not freeze entirely, it does not seem to expand to meet latent demand.     

住房公积金制度改制为政策性住房金融机构的设想

住房公积金管理中心具有政策性住房金融机构的雏形。但住房公积金制度由于设计的制度性缺陷,无法承担政策性住房金融机构的功能。因此,住房公积金制度改制为政策性住房金融机构有其必要性。目前,构建政策性住房金融机构可以从以下几个方面入手:建立以政策性住房金融机构为主体的组织体系,形成完善的住房资金组织系统,构建完善的内外监管体系,发展多种金融工具,完善住房金融的风险分担与化解机制等。     

Piggy Banks: Financial Intermediaries as a Commitment to Save

Banks and other intermediaries may help savers commit to investment plans that savers could not stick to if they held assets directly. We illustrate this commitment function using a version of the Diamond and Dybvig (1983) model where savers’ short-run liquidity needs are correlated with shocks to investment opportunities. The investment securities are all freely tradeable, yet savers still do better if they delegate their investment decisions to an intermediary that overrides the savers’ liquidity demands when investment opportunities warrant. Bank CDs, insurance annuities, pensions, and even social security, by locking funds out of reach, may all constitute real world examples of this commitment role of financial intermediaries.     

网购保险是否保险

相对于过去通过保险业务员面对面购买保险,现在在网上购买保险成为一种新的方式,不但方便,而且实惠。那么,网上购买保险安全是否有保障？网购保险为什么会便宜？     

Does Consumption Respond More to Housing Wealth Than to Financial Market Wealth? If So,Why?

This paper uses long-run equilibrium relationship between consumption and different components of wealth to estimate the effect of changes in housing wealth and financial wealth on consumption. By exploiting this long-run property, it has been shown that a dollar increase in housing wealth increases consumption by seven cents, whereas, a corresponding dollar increase in financial wealth increases consumption by only three cents. This difference in the wealth effect arises because transitory shocks dominate variation in financial wealth, whereas permanent shocks account for most of the variation in housing wealth. This paper also shows that the relative importance of permanent component for housing wealth has witnessed an increase over the last thirty years. Therefore, housing wealth effect has also increased over time.     

Beyond Financial Reporting An Integrated Approach to Disclosure

A company's market value is a key determinant of its future success, affecting its ability to raise capital, recruit and retain key employees, and make strategic acquisitions. Confident, well‐informed investors are necessary for achieving and maintaining accurate valuation of a company's stock. But standard disclosure practice has left many companies releasing a great deal of data while conveying only limited understanding to outsiders. This article presents the outline of an integrated approach to corporate disclosure in which each of the three major elements–required financial reports, supplemental disclosure, and interactions with investors and intermediaries–are consistent and mutually reinforcing. Such an approach begins with required reports that refiect as closely as possible the economic reality of a company's business. But if GAAP income statements and balance sheets are often useful for communicating current and past performance, they are not designed to convey management's strategic vision and the company's prospects for creating value. To achieve and maintain accurate valuation, management must supplement mandated financial reporting with voluntary communication that highlights value drivers and helps investors understand both the company's strategic goals and management's progress in meeting those goals. Finally, management must interact with investors and capital market intermediaries in ways that provide them with a clear and compelling picture of the company's prospects, which should help both analysts and institutional investors become more effective monitors of the firm's performance. Through consistent communication that goes well beyond the sell side's focus on quarterly earnings per share, management will discover that it has the power to set the agenda for how the company's performance is evaluated by the market. In the process, companies are also likely to find that their investors (and analysts) are more patient than they thought, while their operating managers feel less pressure to take shortsighted steps to boost EPS. Both of these expected benefits of an integrated disclosure policy should end up increasing a company's value.