The supply of analysts and earnings forecasts

Using a unique set of hand-collected data, this study examines whether a larger supply of prospective analysts leads to existing financial analysts' higher earnings forecast accuracy. We analyze the effect of the analyst supply proxied by the number of universities and the number of finance and economics universities located in the same city as the headquarters of brokerage firms. Our findings suggest that brokerage firms located closer to a larger supply of potential analyst candidates are associated with higher analyst forecast accuracy, as observed by a lower forecast error. We further find that the degree of employed analysts' effort acts as a mediator between the supply of prospective analysts and the accuracy of their earnings forecasts.     

Ownership structure and forecast accuracy in Spain

This article examines how analysts respond to specific ownership structure characteristics by studying the accuracy of their forecasts after the release of the first Spanish corporate governance code and before IFRS were adopted. Specifically, we analyse the influence of ownership concentration, bank ownership and insider ownership on analyst forecast errors. Overall the results show a positive and significant influence of bank ownership on analyst forecast accuracy, which suggests that bank ownership leads to closer monitoring of management and a reduction in analyst forecast errors. However, the presence of large shareholders and insiders in the ownership structure of the firm does not significantly affect the accuracy of financial analysts. This research provides investors with a more refined sense of how analyst forecasts might be affected through the composition of the ownership structure in a context of high concentration of ownership, relevant presence of banks in firms as creditors and shareholders, and local GAAP.     

Analyst Research Activity During the COVID-19 Pandemic

This paper documents that, in response to the COVID-19 pandemic, analysts increase their research activity and significantly revise their forecasts when compared to the pre-pandemic period. Uncertainty-adjusted forecast errors are either comparable or smaller during the pandemic compared to the pre-pandemic period. Investor attention and price reactions to analyst forecast revisions are higher during the pandemic and the effect is stronger in periods where investors actively search for information about firms. During the pandemic, investors value analyst price discovery role more than their role in interpreting public information. Jointly, the results suggest that analysts play an important information intermediation role during the COVID-19 pandemic.     

Do local analysts know more? A cross-country study of the performance of local analysts and foreign analysts

This paper examines whether analysts resident in a country make more precise earnings forecasts for firms in that country than non-resident analysts. Using a sample of 32 countries, we find an economically and statistically significant local analyst advantage even after controlling for firm and analyst characteristics. The local advantage is high in countries where earnings are smoothed more, less information is disclosed by firms, and firm idiosyncratic information explains a smaller fraction of stock returns. It is negatively related to whether a firm has foreign assets and to market participation by foreign investors and by institutions, and positively related to holdings by insiders. The extent to which U.S. investors underweight a country's stocks is positively related to that country's local analyst advantage.     

The coverage assignments of financial analysts

Previous studies document that forecast accuracy impacts analyst career outcomes. This paper investigates the influence of forecast accuracy on coverage assignments. I show that brokerage houses reward accurate analysts by assigning them to high-profile firms and penalise analysts exhibiting poor accuracy by assigning them to smaller firms. The coverage of high-profile firms increases the potential for future compensation linked to investment banking and trading commissions. In addition, covering such firms increases analysts' recognition from buy-side investors, which, in turn, increases the likelihood of obtaining broker votes and votes for the Institutional Investor star ranking. Overall, my results indicate that high forecast accuracy leads to increased future compensation.     

Do investors affect financial analysts’ behavior? Evidence from short sellers

We examine how short sellers affect financial analysts’ forecast behavior using a natural experiment that relaxes short-sale constraints. We find that increased ease of short selling improves analyst earnings forecast quality by reducing forecast bias and increasing forecast accuracy. The improvements can be explained by both the disciplining pressure from short sellers and increased price efficiency from incorporating information in a timely manner. Although it is well documented that financial analysts can affect investors, our paper provides novel evidence on how sophisticated investors, short sellers, can affect analysts.     

Value relevance of analyst earnings forecasts in emerging markets

Even though research in accounting and finance has extensively examined the role of financial analysts in developed economies, this issue has not been thoroughly examined in an emerging market setting. In this paper, I examine whether, following a market opening, analyst forecast accuracy and the market's reliance on analyst forecasts increase with time. Accuracy is expected to increase over time as analysts exert more effort and gain valuable forecasting experience. Results indicate that time is positively related to analyst forecast accuracy after controlling for a number of other firm and country characteristics. Second, I posit that time should also be related to the market's propensity to use analyst forecasts to form earnings expectations. As markets open and investors become more sophisticated, the reliance on analyst forecasts should also increase. Results are consistent with this expectation. In particular, I find that in the first sub-period earnings expectations based on random walk exhibit greater relative information content than earnings expectations based on analyst forecasts. This pattern is reversed in the third sub-period where analyst forecast errors better explain returns. Incremental information content tests produce similar results. Future research should further investigate the relation between financial analysts and other important market characteristics in emerging economies.     

The Effects of Disclosure and Analyst Regulations on the Relevance of Analyst Characteristics for Explaining Analyst Forecast Accuracy

We posit and find an effect of disclosure and analyst reporting regulations implemented from 2000 through 2003 (including Regulation Fair Disclosure, the Sarbanes‐Oxley Act and the Global Settlement Act) on the importance of analyst and forecast characteristics for analyst forecast accuracy. Following the enactment of these regulations, more experienced analysts and All‐Star analysts do not maintain their superior forecast accuracy, and analysts employed by large brokerage houses perform worse than other analysts. In addition, we find a decrease in the importance of analyst effort, the number of industries and firms followed, days elapsed since the last forecast, and forecast horizon. While the importance of bold upward forecast revisions does not change, bold downward revisions lose their relevance for forecast accuracy after 2003. Finally, we find an increase in the importance of prior forecast accuracy. We find that the importance of these characteristics varies with the precision of publicly available information. Specifically, the decrease in the importance of most analyst and forecast characteristics and the increase in the importance of prior forecast accuracy are greater when the precision of publicly available information is low. Overall, our results suggest that the positive effects of experience, effort, brokerage house size and All‐Star status on forecast accuracy in the pre‐regulation period were because of the information advantages that these analysts enjoyed (rather than their ability to generate private information). In contrast, our results suggest that prior forecast accuracy is related to analysts’ ability to generate private information.     

Disclosure of internal control material weaknesses and optimism in analyst earnings forecasts

This paper investigates how analyst forecast optimism is associated with disclosures of internal control material weaknesses (ICMWs) and their remediation under Section 404 of the Sarbanes–Oxley Act (SOX). Drawing on agency theory, I hypothesize that analysts are likely to issue earnings forecasts that are more optimistic for firms with ICMW disclosures than for those without ICMW disclosures. Using a sample of 20,875 firm-year observations with 10-K (10-Q) reports from 2004 to 2018, I find a positive association between ICMW disclosures and analyst forecast optimism. This positive association is partially driven by investors’ inability to unravel analyst forecast bias and analysts’ intentions to curry favor with management for private information. In addition, analysts are found to issue less optimistic forecasts for firms with ICMW remediation disclosures compared with those without ICMW remediation disclosures. A series of propensity score matching and regression analyses are conducted to test the robustness of my inferences. Overall, the paper suggests that analysts have incentives to take the opportunity of firms disclosing ICMWs to bias their forecasts upward for self-interest. The findings have the potential to assist regulators in guiding analyst behavior and educating investors to unravel positive bias in analyst forecasts.     

Accounting standard changes and foreign analyst behavior: Evidence from China

This study investigates changes in foreign analyst behavior before and after Chinese New Accounting Standards was implemented during 2007. The empirical results show that after the new accounting standards were implemented, forecast error among foreign analysts decreased in both absolute and relative terms in comparison with domestic analysts, and foreign analysts forecast earnings more frequently than they did before the new accounting standards. These results imply that the implementation of new accounting standards in the Chinese capital market helped mitigate both information asymmetry between listed firms in China and foreign investors, and the “home bias” of foreign analysts. It also increased the attractiveness of listed firms and facilitated international communication and cooperation. This study also has significant implications for how resource allocation efficiency in the Chinese capital market can be raised and how the “introducing in” policy should be assessed.