Public priorities and expectations of climate change impacts in the United Kingdom

Irrespective of the success of climate mitigation efforts, societies worldwide face the challenge of adapting to a changing climate. In this paper, we examine UK residents’ expectations of future threats and opportunities associated with climate change impacts, along with willingness to prioritise different climate change impacts for investment. Using a national survey (n = 2007), we report on three main findings. First, UK residents tend to expect threats related to flooding and wet weather to be more likely and concerning than heat extremes or opportunities. Second, UK residents’ expectations of climate change impacts do not align with expert assessments, especially showing lower estimates of heat-related threats as compared to experts. Third, willingness to allocate resources to potential climate change impacts tends to be more strongly associated with anticipated concern should they occur than climate change belief or the expected likelihood of them occurring. We discuss the implications of our findings for policies and communications about climate change adaptation in the UK and elsewhere.     

Governance and Climate Change: A Success Story in Mobilizing Investor Support for Corporate Responses to Climate Change

Until fairly recently, the main approach to getting business to respond to climate change has been top‐down efforts to regulate emissions and enact various forms of “carbon pricing.” The aim of such efforts has been to make businesses “internalize” the costs associated with greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Governments are expected to set the environmental protection rules for companies in their respective countries, and markets are expected to adjust to the new regulations and carbon prices. But this classical approach to economic policy does not work when applied to a global “public goods” challenge like trying to limit the extent and effects of climate change. Instead of a top‐down approach, in which economic actors are forced to respond to regulations imposed on them, the Paris climate agreement of 2015 was reached using a bottom‐up approach centered on the concept of Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs)—along with a process that ended up encouraging the participation of all economic actors, not just governments. The authors provide an account of how the Paris agreement was reached, and why the “Portfolio Decarbonization Coalition” under the auspices of the United Nations is the most important of several private‐sector initiatives that are changing the way corporations operate. Thanks in large part to the PDC, investors can now undertake meaningful corporate governance action on climate change. With GHG emissions from a particular companies’ operations now much easier to measure, objective performance metrics on GHG emissions can now be set by boards and verified by shareholders. And current decarbonized indexes can be used as performance benchmarks for asset managers’ compensation, which can be tied to return outperformance relative to a “decarbonized” index.     

Do low-carbon investments in emerging economies pay off? Evidence from the Brazilian stock market

Climate change has created both challenges and opportunities for investors worldwide. Investing in carbon-efficient assets, for instance, may reduce investors' climate risks while contributing to global efforts for climate change mitigation. Investors need updated and robust information on the financial performance of low-carbon investments, especially in emerging markets, where climate finance initiatives are still scattered. In this work, we provide a first insight into the financial performance of a portfolio of shares from Brazilian carbon-efficient companies. To that end, we use as reference the Carbon Efficient Index (ICO2) and assess its financial performance from 2010 to 2019 through the lens of several classic and modern portfolio metrics. We find that the index outperformed both the Brazilian market benchmark and the country's broad sustainability index, and provided competitive risk-adjusted returns compared with other sectorial indices. The results thus indicate that investing in carbon-efficient companies in Brazil has so far positively contributed to portfolio performance while offering investors an opportunity to reduce climate risk exposure in stock markets.     

The Impact of the Introduction of the Euro on Foreign Exchange Risk Management in UK Multinational Companies

One of the arguments in favour of the euro is that it will eliminate foreign exchange risk for companies in the euro‐zone. There could also be benefits for companies outside this zone, although their currency risk with the euro remains. This paper considers this, by examining the effect of the euro on the currency risk management of UK multinational companies (MNCs). Using the responses from a questionnaire and interviews we found that the euro, which is being widely used in UK MNCs, is generally favoured due to reductions in exchange uncertainty and costs of managing currency risk. Nonetheless, contrary to what would theoretically be expected, there was no exact relationship in the reduction in hedging activity accompanied by this reduction in risk. The majority of MNCs stated that their hedging activities would remain unchanged. The capacity of MNCs to benefit from reductions in risk and hedging depend on the proportion of non‐UK European trade, the industry sector and the ability to transfer risk down the supply chain. Finally, despite the reductions in currency exposure experienced by the majority of companies the euro will not encourage UK MNCs to expand international trade.     

Climate change news sensitivity and mutual fund performance

In the presence of rising concern about climate change that potentially affects risk and return of investors' portfolio companies, active investors might have dispersed climate change risk exposures. We compute mutual fund covariance with market-wide climate change news index and find that high (positive) climate news beta funds outperform low (negative) climate news beta funds by 0.24% per month on a risk-adjusted basis. High climate news beta funds tilt their holdings toward stocks with high potential to hedge against climate change news risk. In the cross section, such stocks yield higher excess returns, which are driven by greater pricing pressure and superior financial performance over our sample period.     

Climate Change and Asset Prices: Are Corporate Carbon Disclosure and Performance Priced Appropriately?

This paper empirically assesses the relevance of information on corporate climate change disclosure and performance to asset prices, and discusses whether this information is priced appropriately. Findings indicate that corporate disclosures of quantitative greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and, to a lesser extent, carbon performance are value relevant. We use hand‐collected information on quantitative GHG emissions for 433 European companies and build portfolios based on GHG disclosure and performance. We regress portfolios on a standard four factor model extended for industry effects over the years 2005 to 2009. Results show that investors achieved abnormal risk‐adjusted returns of up to 13.05% annually by exploiting inefficiently priced positive effects of (complete) GHG emissions disclosure and good corporate climate change performance in terms of GHG efficiency. Results imply that, firstly, information costs involved in carbon disclosure and management do not present a burden on corporate financial resources. Secondly, investors should not neglect carbon disclosure and performance when making investment decisions. Thirdly, during the period analysed, financial markets were inefficient in pricing publicly available information on carbon disclosure and performance. Mandatory and standardised information on carbon performance would consequently not only increase market efficiency but result in better allocation of capital within the real economy.     

ESG preferences,risk and return

There are two primary factors that affect expected returns for companies with high ESG (environmental, social and governance) ratings—investor preferences and risk. Although investor preferences for highly rated ESG companies can lower the cost of capital, the flip side of the coin is lower expected returns for investors. Regarding risk, the jury remains out on whether there is an ESG-related risk factor. However, to the extent, ESG is a risk factor it also points towards lower expected returns for investments in highly rated companies. Though ESG investing may have social benefits, higher expected returns for investors are not among them.     

The role of accounting in supporting adaptation to climate change

The study is one of the first concerned with the topic of accounting and climate change adaptation. It proposes that the accounting role can support organisational climate change adaptation by performing the following functions: (i) a risk assessment function (assessing vulnerability and adaptive capacity), (ii) a valuation function (valuing adaptation costs and benefits) and (iii) a disclosure function (disclosure of risk associated with climate change impacts). This study synthesises and expands on existing research and practice in environmental accounting and sets the scene for future research and practice in the emerging area of accounting for climate risk.     

ESTIMATING EXPECTED EXCESS RETURNS USING HISTORICAL AND OPTION‐IMPLIED VOLATILITY

We test the relation between expected and realized excess returns for the S&P 500 index from January 1994 through December 2003 using the proportional reward‐to‐risk measure to estimate expected returns. When risk is measured by historical volatility, we find no relation between expected and realized excess returns. In contrast, when risk is measured by option‐implied volatility, we find a positive and significant relation between expected and realized excess returns in the 1994–1998 subperiod. In the 1999–2003 subperiod, the option‐implied volatility risk measure yields a positive, but statistically insignificant, risk‐return relation. We attribute this performance difference to the fact that, in the 1994–1998 subperiod, return volatility was lower and the average return was much higher than in the 1999–2003 subperiod, thereby increasing the signal‐to‐noise ratio in the latter subperiod.     

Social Capital,Trust, and Corporate Performance: How CSR Helped Companies During the Financial Crisis (and Why It Can Keep Helping Them)

The authors summarize the findings of their study, published recently in the Journal of Finance, that shows that CSR investments can help companies when they perhaps need it most—that is, during sharp downturns when overall trust in companies and markets declines. Companies with high‐CSR rankings experienced stock returns that were five to seven percentage points higher than their low‐CSR counterparts during the 2008–2009 financial crisis, and even larger excess returns during the Enron crisis of 2001–2003. High‐CSR companies during the crisis also reported better operating performance, higher growth, higher employee productivity, and greater access to debt markets—while continuing to generate higher shareholder returns as late as the end of 2013. Many of these operating improvements continued well into the post‐crisis period, though at more modest levels. As the authors view their findings, the ‘social capital’ built up by corporate CSR programs complements effective financial capital management in increasing shareholder wealth mainly by limiting companies' downside risk. CSR is seen as not only reducing systematic as well as firm‐specific risk, but as also providing protection against overall ‘loss of trust.’ The social capital created by CSR programs is said to provide a kind of insurance policy that pays off when investors and the overall economy face a severe crisis of confidence.     

A Tale of Two Anomalies: Higher Returns of Low‐Risk Stocks and Return Seasonality

Prior studies have shown that low beta and low volatility stocks earn higher average returns than high beta and high volatility stocks, contradicting the prediction of the capital asset pricing model and the fundamental relationship between risk and return. In this paper, we demonstrate that this phenomenon is driven by the seasonality of stock returns. We show that the risk‐return tradeoff does hold in the nonsummer months, and that switching to a portfolio of low‐risk stocks in summer outperforms—both in terms of absolute and in risk‐adjusted returns—buy and hold strategies as well as the Sell in May strategy of switching to treasury bills in summer.     

Future visioning of local climate change: A framework for community engagement and planning with scenarios and visualisation

There is an urgent need for meaningful information and effective public processes at the local level to build awareness, capacity, and agency on climate change, and support planning and decision-making. This paper describes a conceptual framework to meet these requirements by generating alternative, coherent, holistic climate change scenarios and visualizations at the local scale, in collaboration with local stakeholders and scientists. The framework provides a template for a process to integrate emission scenarios with both mitigation and adaptation strategies, and to link local manifestations of impacts and responses with global climate change scenarios. The article outlines the empirical application of this framework in the Local Climate Change Visioning Project in British Columbia, Canada. The project collaboratively localized, spatialized, and visualized possible climate change effects and community responses in the community's ‘backyards’. The article concludes with lessons learned and suggested principles for future visioning efforts to engage communities in possible policy and behavioural choices.     

Market risk exposure of merger arbitrage in Australia

We investigate the risk‐return characteristics of merger arbitrage in the Australian market for corporate control, whereby hedge fund managers acquire companies subject to a takeover offer. On average, a strategy of buying target companies and short‐selling bidders making scrip offers would have generated an annual return of 30 per cent from 1985 to 2008, excluding transaction costs, compared to the return on the broader market of 12 per cent. However, performance is not market neutral, being positively associated with market returns during downturns and inversely related to market movements during rising markets. The payoffs to this strategy are analogous to a short straddle, whereby the investor is short a call and put option at the same exercise price. These results are consistent with large‐sample evidence from the United States and the United Kingdom and have not previously been documented in Australia, in which prior evidence is based only on cash deals during the 1990s.     

Risk and Return: A Revisit Using Expected Returns

This paper uses direct estimates of expected returns to examine the link between standard measures of financial risk and investor return requirements. The results show that systematic risk commands a significant positive risk premium, much larger than found using historical returns as proxies for expectations. Furthermore, there are nonlinearities in the relationship between risk and return. Finally, we show that expected returns and risk premiums in the equity markets change over time and that these changes are related to changes in interest rates on U.S. government obligations.     

Does Risk Management Add Value? A Survey of the Evidence

The fact that 92% of the world's 500 largest companies recently reported using derivatives suggests that corporate managers believe financial risk management can increase shareholder value. Surveys of finance academics indicate that they too believe that corporate risk management is, on the whole, a valueadding activity. This article provides an overview of almost 30 years of broadbased, stock‐market‐oriented academic studies that address one or more of the following questions:

• ? Are interest rate, exchange rate, and commodity price risks reflected in stock price movements?
• ? Is volatility in corporate earnings and cash flows related in a systematic way to corporate market values?
• ? Is the corporate use of derivatives associated with reduced risk and higher market values?

The answer to the first question, at least in the case of financial institutions and interest rate risk, is a definite yes; all studies with this focus find that the stock returns of financial firms are clearly sensitive to interest rate changes. The stock returns of industrial companies exhibit no pronounced interest rate exposure (at least as a group), but industrial firms with significant cross‐border revenues and costs show considerable sensitivity to exchange rates (although such sensitivity actually appears to be reduced by the size and geographical diversity of the largest multinationals). What's more, the corporate use of derivatives to hedge interest rate and currency exposures appears to be associated with lower sensitivity of stock returns to interest rate and FX changes. But does the resulting reduction in price sensitivity affect value—and, if so, how? Consistent with a widely cited theory that risk management increases value by limiting the corporate “underinvestment problem,” a number of studies show a correlation between lower cash flow volatility and higher corporate investment and market values. The article also cites a small but growing group of studies that show a strong positive association between derivatives use and stock price performance (typically measured using price‐to‐book ratios). But perhaps the nearest the research comes to establishing causality are two studies—one of companies that hedge FX exposures and another of airlines' hedging of fuel costs—that show that, in industries where hedging with derivatives is common, companies that hedge outperform companies that don't.     

Re‐equitizing Corporate Balance Sheets: Choosing Among the Alternatives

Companies are generally reluctant to issue new equity because it can be expensive capital. Among the largest costs of an equity offering are so‐called “market‐impact” costs. To the extent the typically negative market reaction to a stock offering causes an issue to be underpriced, such underpricing dilutes the value of current shareholders. Despite such costs, many companies—particularly financial institutions—are raising equity capital to “delever” balance sheets that have been squeezed by the credit crunch and economic slowdown. And far from transferring value from existing shareholders, these offerings can preserve and even increase the value of highly leveraged companies by shoring up their capital bases and providing the flexibility to get through a difficult period. According to recent studies, announcements of equity offerings by distressed companies have been accompanied by positive stock returns in excess of 5 %. The challenge for CFOs is to determine why and when issuing equity is the value‐maximizing strategy. The kinds of companies that are most likely to benefit from equity offerings are those that score low on credit metrics, have experienced cyclical declines in operating performance, and have growth opportunities as part of their recovery. There are a number of options for raising equity capital, but no set rules for identifying the optimal one. Nevertheless, the author offers a number of suggestions designed to help CFOs make smarter decisions: Communicate clearly to investors the intended uses of the proceeds from the equity offering and how they are expected to create value; Consider judicious cuts to the dividend to preserve capital; Involve current shareholders to minimize dilution, perhaps by considering a rights offering, and strengthen their commitment; Seek out “smart money” such as private equity or SWFs as long‐term investors; Get the offer size right the first time so a second offering can be avoided; and Monetize volatility in uncertain markets by issuing convertible securities.     

Does consideration matter to China’s split share structure reform?

We investigate the share market response to China’s split share structure reform and find average negative daily return around the government announcement on 29 April 2005. However, there is a turnaround at individual companies’ decision to implement the reform where we find positive and significant average daily return, contingent on the type of consideration. We attribute this change in market sentiment to the company’s announcement that the reform will involve the payment of consideration to holders of tradable A‐shares. Our results also show that holders of tradable A‐shares earn significant abnormal daily returns when companies propose to pay in cash or warrants or combine any of these payment methods with bonus shares.     

Stock liquidity premium with stochastic price impact and exogenous trading strategy

This paper provides a model which helps explain the variability of stock liquidity premium. Liquidity is modelled as a time-varying price impact and includes both permanent as well as temporary price impacts. Liquidity premium is defined as an additional expected return that stock should yield to compensate an investor for the potential loss of wealth utility caused by price impact costs. The numerical results presented show that liquidity premium varies with expected net stock return, return volatility and, to a lesser extent, with returns on risk-free bonds. Liquidity premium is a growing and convex function of liquidity costs, and temporary price impact has a more severe effect on liquidity premium than the permanent one.     

A Test of the Modigliani‐Miller Invariance Theorem and Arbitrage in Experimental Asset Markets

Modigliani and Miller show that the total market value of a firm is unaffected by a repackaging of asset return streams to equity and debt if pricing is arbitrage‐free. We investigate this invariance theorem in experimental asset markets, finding value‐invariance for assets of identical risks when returns are perfectly correlated. However, exploiting price discrepancies has risk when returns have the same expected value but are uncorrelated, in which case the law of one price is violated. Discrepancies shrink in consecutive markets, but persist even with experienced traders. In markets where overall trader acuity is high, assets trade closer to parity.