Expected Accrual Models: The Impact of Operating Cash Flows and Reversals of Accruals

This paper augments the Jones (1991) model with operating cash flows and lagged accruals to evaluate the impact of (1) the negative association between accruals and concurrent cash flows, (2) the positive association between accruals and lagged cash flows, and (3) the reversal of accruals. I find that operating cash flows greatly improve the explanatory and predictive power of the Jones model; but, lagged accruals do not. A market test of the expected and unexpected components of accruals indicates that unexpected accruals are on average informative with respect to concurrent stock returns; however, the market does not fully understand the implications of accruals anticipated at the beginning of the return period.This paper has benefited from helpful comments and suggestions from Tae Hee Choi, In-Kyu Moon, and two anonymous reviewers on earlier versions of this paper. The author gratefully acknowledges the financial support from the Queens School of Business.     

Why Are Earnings Kinky? An Examination of the Earnings Management Explanation

Prior research has documented a kink in the earnings distribution: too few firms report small losses, too many firms report small profits. We investigate whether boosting of discretionary accruals to report a small profit is a reasonable explanation for this kink. Overall, we are unable to confirm that boosting of discretionary accruals is the key driver of the kink. We caution the use of the ratio of small profit firms to small loss firms as a measure of earnings management. We investigate and discuss a number of alternative explanations for the kink.     

The interaction effects of firm and partner tenure on audit quality†

This paper investigates the impact of firm and partner tenure on audit quality, where audit quality is proxied by discretionary accruals. We study a sample of Spanish listed companies between 2005 and 2011 and address both the individual and the interaction effects of firm and partner tenure. Our study is motivated by the current debate, particularly intense at the EU level, on the impact of the auditor rotation regime on the quality of auditing. We find that, without considering the interaction effects, firm and partner tenure do not seem to play a relevant role as determinants of audit quality. Importantly, the interaction of firm and partner tenure shows stronger effects on audit quality than both forms of tenure separately considered. Finally, our analysis suggests that audit quality is maximized when medium firm and partner tenures interact. However, results for the interaction variables are sensitive to the accruals estimation method.     

The Usefulness of Measures of Consistency of Discretionary Components of Accruals in the Detection of Earnings Management

Abstract:  Prior research has shown the prevalence of measurement error in models used to estimate aggregate discretionary accruals. In these models, the incremental information content of the various components of accruals is ignored. Limited prior research and data gathered from firms under Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) litigation indicate that managers use either one or more than one component of accruals simultaneously, in a consistent way to manipulate bottom-line earnings in a given direction. I propose two measures that capture the consistency between the discretionary components of accruals and test their significance in earnings management (EM) detection in firms that have artificially added accrual manipulation and firms that were targeted by the SEC for accrual manipulation. There is evidence that this information is incrementally useful in detecting EM. This finding paves the way for improvements in the discretionary accruals measure by including consistency information from the components of aggregate accruals.     

Accruals Management to Achieve Earnings Benchmarks: A Comparison of Pre-managed Profit and Loss Firms

Abstract:  This study examines whether firms with profits before accruals management are more likely than firms with losses before accruals management to meet or exceed earnings benchmarks when pre-managed earnings are below those benchmarks. We extend Brown (2001) by documenting that the differential propensity to achieve earnings benchmarks by profitable and nonprofitable firms results from differential accruals management behavior. We find that firms with profits before accruals management are more likely than firms with losses before accruals management to have pre-managed earnings below both analysts' forecasts and prior period earnings and reported earnings above these benchmarks.     

LOCAL GOVERNMENTS,UNEXPECTED DEPRECIATION AND FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE ADJUSTMENT

Prior management and manipulation of financial accounting information research has overwhelmingly been focused within a private sector setting. This study adopts a public sector focus in empirically examining the use of a specific discretionary accrual (i.e., depreciation) to adjust the financial performance of New South Wales (Australia) local governments. Findings indicate a significant positive association between absolute unexpected depreciation and absolute local government income before capital contributions, and a significant positive association between absolute unexpected depreciation and capital contributions. Overall, the results make significant contributions to various literature streams with implications for various stakeholders interested in local governmental financial performance.     

Pricing of innate and discretionary accruals in Australian debt

This paper addresses the conflicting evidence on the role of accruals in debt pricing. We show that the two subcomponents of accruals quality, innate and discretionary accruals, both impact the debt pricing. Higher innate accruals increases cost of debt, consistent with the prior evidence ( Francis et al., 2005 ; Gray et al., 2009 ). However, we also find that higher discretionary accruals reduce the cost of debt. This contrasts with the prior evidence of a positive association between discretionary accruals and cost and debt ( Francis et al., 2005 ), and no association ( Gray et al., 2009 ). We show that noisy measurement of cost of debt reconciles these results.     

Investor Sophistication and the Mispricing of Accruals

This paper examines the role of institutional investors in the pricing of accruals. Using Bushee;s (1998) classification of institutional investors, we show that firms with a high level of institutional ownership and a minimum threshold level of active institutional traders have stock prices that more accurately reflect the persistence of accruals. This result holds after controlling for differences in the persistence of accruals between firms with high and low institutional ownership, and after controlling for other characteristics that are correlated with institutional ownership and future returns. Additionally, firms with low institutional ownership are smaller, less profitable, and have lower share turnover, suggesting that limits to arbitrage impede institutional investors from exploiting the seemingly large abnormal returns for these firms.     

Analyst Earnings Forecast Revisions and the Pricing of Accruals

We investigate the relation between two market anomalies to provide insights into analysts role as information intermediaries. Prior research finds that accruals and analyst earnings forecast revisions predict future returns. We find that the accrual and forecast revision strategies generate hedge returns of 15.5% and 5.5% when implemented independently. Strikingly, a combined strategy that uses forecast revisions to refine the accrual strategy generates a hedge return of 28.5%. Firms with consistent accrual and forecast revision signals have less persistent accruals and earnings. We also find that accruals can be used to refine the forecast revision strategy—high accruals are associated with overoptimism in analyst forecasts. Our findings indicate that although forecast revisions reflect information about accrual and earnings persistence beyond that reflected in the level of current year accruals, investors do not fully incorporate this information into their valuation assessments.     

The Usefulness of Direct and Indirect Cash Flow Disclosures

We investigate the ability of disclosed operating cash flow and indirect accruals components to explain annual returns for a sample of Australian firms. Consistent with claims made by accounting standard setters, we find evidence of significant explanatory power for disclosed operating cash flow components beyond aggregate operating cash flows when they also have significant incremental predictive power for future (one year ahead) operating cash flows. Accrual components also have incremental explanatory power for returns. In addition, we find evidence of significant explanatory power for operating cash flow components beyond estimates of the components (based on other financial statement disclosures) for firms with large differences between disclosed and estimated components.     

Does Investor Sentiment Affect Earnings Management?

I hypothesize and find that earnings management via accruals is driven partially by the prevailing market‐wide investor sentiment. Managers inflate earnings in periods of higher sentiment, but report more conservatively during periods of low sentiment. Moreover, the likelihood of income‐increasing earnings management to avoid negative earnings surprises is also positively associated with investor sentiment. These results are robust to: (i) controls for time‐varying firm characteristics such as growth, investment opportunity sets, future profitability, leverage and size; (ii) macroeconomic variables such as future inflation, GDP growth, and growth in industrial production; (iii) multiple proxies for investor sentiment; and (iv) discretionary revenues as alternative measure of earnings management. Cross‐sectional analyses reveal that firms whose stock returns co‐move more with investor sentiment are more (less) likely to manage earnings upward via abnormal accruals in quarters of higher (lower) sentiment. The findings of managers’ strategic use of abnormal accruals show the need for increased attention from boards of directors, auditors and regulators to heightened managerial incentives to overstate earnings and to report optimistic earnings numbers during periods of high investor sentiment.     

DEVOLUTION, ACCRUALS ACCOUNTING AND ASSET MANAGEMENT IN NHS WALES

This paper describes how a strategy for health services has been developed for NHS Wales and examines the role of accruals accounting in asset management and development. It uses archival investigation as well as interviews and a questionnaire. The role of accruals accounting in the operation of the service, particularly as it relates to the capital asset base of the Trusts and how these are managed, is discussed in the context that Trusts are autonomous units that develop services, and hence their capital asset base, through their own internal planning structure. It is found that, on devolution, there was a lack of consistent information about the stock of capital assets and that capital charges, based on accruals accounting, were not penetrating asset management within individual Trusts. Although strategies were being developed centrally, their implementation at a Trust level can be impeded as a consequence of accruals accounting.     

Cost of Capital, Strategic Disclosures and Accounting Choice

Abstract:   Theory suggests a negative relationship between disclosure and the cost of capital. However, empirical research has not, in general, confirmed this. In particular, Botosan (1997) finds no evidence of a negative relationship for firms with a high analyst following, and moreover, Botosan and Plumlee (2002a) find that firms' cost of capital increases with timely disclosures. There are several possible explanations for this puzzle. First, the theory‐driven hypothesis may be false and require re‐specification. Second, there may be correlated omitted variables contaminating the results. Finally, these inconclusive results may have arisen due to problems with the measurement of disclosure. We construct an innovative measure of timely disclosure, that attempts to capture quality rather than quantity of strategic disclosures. In addition, motivated by new theoretical research by Gietzmann and Trombetta (2003) , we control for a possible omitted variable, namely accounting policy choice. With this revised research design, we find the expected negative relationship. Furthermore, as predicted by Gietzmann and Trombetta, this relationship is only significant for firms adopting aggressive accounting policies.     

Accrual usage to manage earnings toward financial analysts' forecasts

This study examines whether management uses discretionary accounting accruals to move earnings upward toward analysts' earnings forecasts when it appears that earnings before discretionary accruals will fall short of the forecast. An earnings shortfall relative to analysts' forecasts could lead management to fear lower compensation and an increase in the likelihood of job termination. The article finds that firms whose earnings before discretionary accruals are below analysts' forecasts use income-increasing discretionary accruals and do so to a greater extent than do firms whose earnings before discretionary accruals are above analysts' forecasts.