Insured uncovered interest parity

The current literature suggests that uncovered interest parity (UIP) does not hold because of differences in risk in holding different currency denominated debt. We test whether this risk is related to sovereign credit risk in government bonds. We consider an insured uncovered interest parity relationship – that is, one where debt is insured with credit default swap (CDS) contracts. CDS rates help explain the UIP puzzle but have no predictive power for carry trade returns and currency movements.     

Differential risk premiums and the UIP puzzle

We respecify the uncovered interest rate parity (UIP) conditions by inverting the market price of the risk (Sharpe ratio) formula. Our empirical model provides new insight indicating that violations to the UIP stem from the existence of a risk premium in the exchange rates and from observed market return differentials being a noisy statistic of the markets’ expected return differentials in our respecified model. Using an integrated macro‐micro structure framework for expected market return differentials improves our model fit and the validity of UIP.     

Time-varying international diversification and the forward premium

This paper reproduces the slope of the uncovered interest rate parity (UIP) regression for ten country pairs within one standard deviation under rational expectations. We propose an infinite horizon dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with incomplete markets. Heterogeneous investors experience varying risk aversion as a result of habit formation.The underlying mechanism of the model relies on varying international diversification in the investors' portfolio choice decision. In response to their changing habit levels, investors' hedging desire varies over time. This leads to adjustments in interest rates. The habit-induced investment decisions are negatively correlated with movements in the exchange rate. This results in a negative correlation between interest rates and expected exchange rates, as implied by a negative UIP slope.Depending on the magnitude of habits, the model is capable of reproducing positive as well as negative UIP slopes, as seen empirically in the data.     

The Structural Relation Between Mortgage and Market Interest Rates

This paper analyzes the dynamic relationship between primary and secondary mortgage markets and the short-term and long-term market interest rates. Using a series of monthly data on fixed rate mortgage rates and GNMA rates, we explore the dependence and speed of adjustment in these primary and secondary mortgage rates to each other as well as to the long and short-term government rates. The results indicate that residential mortgage rates in general, appear to follow the long-term rate and are not very sensitive to movements in the short-term interest rate.     

What Goes Up Must Come Down? Asymmetries and Persistence in Bank Deposit Rates

This paper contains a model of price setting in the presence of heterogeneous customers, explaining why bank interest rates respond sluggishly to some extended movements in market interest rates but not to others. Price (the bank interest rate) is likely to change only slightly with cost (the market interest rate) when the price-cost margin is already large and to be responsive when the price-cost margin is relatively small. The model is tested using data on interest rates offered for bank deposit instruments during 1987–2001. The results support the theoretical model, indicating that customer behavior plays a role in bank interest rate decisions.     

Uncovered Interest Parity,Forward Guidance and the Exchange Rate

Under uncovered interest parity (UIP), the size of the effect on the real exchange rate of an anticipated change in real interest rate differentials is invariant to the horizon at which the change is expected. Empirical evidence using U.S., euro area and UK data points to a substantial deviation from that invariance prediction: expectations of interest rate differentials in the near (distant) future are shown to have much larger (smaller) effects on the real exchange rate than is implied by UIP. Some possible explanations are discussed.     

REIT Risk Premium Sensitivity and Interest Rates

This analysis investigates several aspects of the relationship between daily REIT stock risk premiums and various interest rates. Consistent with prior research, the general findings indicate that interest rates do impact REIT returns. This study specifically finds that stock returns are more sensitive to maturity rate spread between short- and long-term treasuries than the credit rate spread between commercial bonds and treasuries. In addition, the analyses document a structural model shift during the nineties that has made REITs more sensitive to credit risk. In additional to change in investor clientele, an analysis of declining REIT credit-worthiness points to a root cause for this shift.     

Global asset prices and FOMC announcements

This paper analyzes the impact of U.S. monetary policy announcement surprises on foreign equity indexes, short- and long-term interest rates, and exchange rates in 49 countries. We use two proxies for monetary policy surprises: the surprise change to the current target federal funds rate (target surprise) and the revision to the expected path of future monetary policy (path surprise). We find that different asset classes respond to different components of the monetary policy surprises. Global equity indexes respond mainly to the target surprise; exchange rates and long-term interest rates respond mainly to the path surprise; and short-term interest rates respond to both surprises. On average, a hypothetical surprise 25-basis-point cut in the federal funds target rate is associated with about a 1 percent increase in foreign equity indexes and a 5 basis point decline in foreign short-term interest rates. A surprise 25-basis-point downward revision in the expected path of future policy is associated with about a ½ percent decline in the exchange value of the dollar against foreign currencies and 5 and 8 basis point declines in short- and long-term interest rates, respectively. We also find that asset prices’ responses to FOMC announcements vary greatly across countries, and that these cross-country variations in the response are related to a country’s exchange rate regime. Equity indexes and interest rates in countries with a less flexible exchange rate regime respond more to U.S. monetary policy surprises. In addition, the cross-country variation in the equity market response is strongly related to the percentage of each country’s equity market capitalization owned by U.S. investors. This result suggests that investors’ asset holdings may play a role in transmitting monetary policy surprises across countries.     

An empirical study of nonlinear adjustment in the UIP model using a smooth transition regression model

This study considers the nonlinear relationship between the expected exchange rate change and the interest rate differential, using STR models (ESTR and LSTR), with Sharpe ratios, interest rate differentials and exchange rate volatilities as the transition variables. The results generally conclude that UIP holds with the larger Sharpe ratio and higher exchange rate volatility regimes, which is consistent with the transaction costs and limits to speculation hypotheses. However, the interest rate differential (which is generally not used much as a transition variable) when used in this study results in a failure to support UIP in the upper regime, which suggests it is the risk not the pure return that determines the transition.