Financial integration in the pacific basin region: RIP by PANIC attack?

We exploit advances in panel data econometrics to test whether real interest parity holds in the Pacific Basin region. We test for a unit root in the difference between either the US, Japanese or Euro area real interest rate and the real interest rates from a panel of eleven Pacific Basin economies. Unlike extant studies that test for RIP using panel data, we use Bai and Ng’s (2004) PANIC test which allows for a very general model of cross-section dependence, including the possibility of cross-unit cointegration. Ignoring the possibility of cross-unit cointegration can lead to severe size distortions and to an over-rejection of the null hypothesis of a unit root. We overturn earlier findings based on first-generation panel tests, and demonstrate that cross-unit cointegration leads to incorrect conclusions. We find that RIP holds in the Pacific region. Real interest rates converge to the US rate. We find no support for the hypothesis that Pacific Basin real interest rates converge to either the Japanese or Euro area rates.     

Uncovered Interest Parity,Forward Guidance and the Exchange Rate

Under uncovered interest parity (UIP), the size of the effect on the real exchange rate of an anticipated change in real interest rate differentials is invariant to the horizon at which the change is expected. Empirical evidence using U.S., euro area and UK data points to a substantial deviation from that invariance prediction: expectations of interest rate differentials in the near (distant) future are shown to have much larger (smaller) effects on the real exchange rate than is implied by UIP. Some possible explanations are discussed.     

Resuscitating real interest rate parity: new evidence from panels

This paper considers the real interest rate parity (RIRP) in OECD countries applying a sequential panel selection (SPS) method on alternative panel unit-root tests. Our approach exploits the enhanced power of panels to uncover evidence of stationarity, but also identifies the exact countries for which the RIRP holds in a panel. Moreover, we construct real interest rate measures using alternative approaches, including a Markov regime-switching procedure, which is consistent with the forward-looking nature of inflation expectations formation. Considering US as the benchmark economy, we produce strong evidence of stationarity in real interest rate differentials, which resuscitates RIRP, especially given the inconclusive results in the related literature. Our results are robust to different panel unit-root tests, measures of inflation expectations, and interest rate maturities. The RIRP appears quite resilient in the face of the global financial crisis and the low real interest rate environment after the great recession. The SPS allows to calculate half-lives, which avoid the pitfalls of over/underestimating the speed of adjustment and are lower as compared to the typical estimates in the literature.     

RIP and the shift toward a monetary union: Looking for a “euro effect” by a structural break analysis with panel data

This paper aims to evaluate how the ex ante real interest rates of Euro area countries have been modified by the introduction of the euro. We use cointegration analysis with endogenous breaks in a panel data context. Our results show that the “euro effect” is significant in our sample and that after the introduction of the euro, the real interest parity (RIP) holds. This last conclusion is due to a decrease in the nominal interest rate differentials rather than to a reduction in goods and services price differentials and in the exchange rate volatility.     

Do real interest rates converge? Evidence from the European union

We test for real interest rate convergence in the EU25 area. Our contribution is twofold: first, we account for the previously overlooked effects of structural breaks on real interest rate differentials. Second, we test for convergence against the EMU average. For the majority of our sample countries we obtain evidence of convergence towards the latter. This, however, is a gradual process subject to structural breaks, typically falling close to the launch of the euro. Our findings have important implications relating to the single monetary policy and the progress new EU members have achieved towards joining the euro.     

An exploration of the forward premium puzzle in currency markets

A standard empirical finding is that expected changes in exchangerates and interest rate differentials across countries are negativelyrelated, implying that uncovered interest rate parity is violatedin the data. This article provides new empirical evidence thatsuggests that violations of uncovered interest rate parity,and its economic implications, depend on the sign of the interestrate differential. A framework related to term structure modelsis developed to account for the puzzling relationship betweenexpected changes in exchange rates and interest rate differentials.Estimation results suggest that a particular term structuremodel can account for the puzzling empirical evidence.     

Real Interest Rate Parity: Long-Run and Short-Run Analysis Using Wavelets

In this article, long-run and short-run relationships among real interest rates in G-7 countries are empirically analyzed. The evidence suggests the existence of long-run relationships among these real interest rates. However, the long-run relationship is not an equality relationship. Short-run relationships are estimated using dynamic simultaneous equation models. They reveal that the real interest rates of non-U.S. G-7 countries react and adjust to long-run disequilibrium conditions. A more detailed analysis based on wavelet transform indicates the existence of both short-run and long-run relationships; however, strict interest rate parity does not seem to hold true.JEL Classification: C22, E43, G15     

Co-integrating currencies and yield differentials

This study investigates the relationship between currencies and interest rates of different maturity horizons. The real exchange rate is found to depend both on short-term real domestic and foreign interest rate difference and on long-term real domestic and foreign interest rate difference. Co-integrating regressions of contemporaneous currency rates generate negative and significant coefficients for long-term rate differentials, consistent with uncovered interest parity. Therefore, the expectations hypothesis holds for long horizons. On the other hand, positive coefficients for real short-term interest rate differentials reveal the forward premium puzzle: the failure of uncovered interest parity for short-horizons. Results are partly driven by the very different risk characteristics of short-term bonds and foreign bonds.     

Real Exchange Rates and Fundamentals: A Cross‐Country Perspective

This paper employs newly constructed measures for productivity differentials, external imbalances, and commodity terms of trade to estimate a panel cointegrating relationship between real exchange rates and a set of fundamentals for a sample of 48 industrial countries and emerging markets. It finds evidence of a strong positive relation between the consumer price index‐based real exchange rate and commodity terms of trade. The estimated impact of productivity growth differentials between traded and nontraded goods, while statistically significant, is small. Increases in net foreign assets, government consumption, and trade restrictions tend to be associated with appreciating real exchange rates.     

Further Evidence on the Real Interest Rate Parity Hypothesis in Central and East European Countries: Unit Roots and Nonlinearities

This paper analyzes the empirical fulfillment of the real interest rate parity (RIRP) theory for a pool of central and east European countries. To do so, we apply the recently developed Ng and Perron (2001) unit root tests, which are corrected versions of existing unit root tests, and the Kapetanios et al. (2003) unit root test, which generalizes the alternative hypothesis to the globally stationary smooth transition autoregression model. We find evidence in favor of the empirical fulfillment of RIRP, particularly when taking into account the possibility of nonlinearities in the real interest rate differential.     

Was It Real? The Exchange Rate-Interest Differential Relation over the Modern Floating-Rate Period

In this paper, we explore the relationship between real exchange rates and real interest rate differentials in the United States, Germany, Japan, and the United Kingdom. Contrary to theories based on the joint hypothesis that domestic prices are sticky and monetary disturbances are predominant, we find little evidence of a stable relationship between real interest rates and real exchange rates. We consider both in-sample and out-of-sample tests. One hypothesis that is consistent with our findings is that real disturbances (such as productivity shocks) may be a major source of exchange rate volatility.     

Expectations of Exchange Rates and Differential Inflation Rates: Further Evidence on Purchasing Power Parity in Efficient Markets

The paper tests the null hypothesis of ex ante purchasing power parity. The empirical evidence obtained is inconsistent with the null for major industrialized countries over the current floating exchange rate regime. Expected nominal exchange rate changes appear to deviate systematically from expected inflation rate differentials over the same holding period even though real exchange rate changes appear to be serially uncorrelated. This supports the presence of time-varying risk premia in foreign exchange markets and real determinants of exchange rate movements as suggested by equilibrium theories of international asset markets.     

Differential risk premiums and the UIP puzzle

We respecify the uncovered interest rate parity (UIP) conditions by inverting the market price of the risk (Sharpe ratio) formula. Our empirical model provides new insight indicating that violations to the UIP stem from the existence of a risk premium in the exchange rates and from observed market return differentials being a noisy statistic of the markets’ expected return differentials in our respecified model. Using an integrated macro‐micro structure framework for expected market return differentials improves our model fit and the validity of UIP.     

Evaluating capital mobility in the EU: a new approach using swaps data

The level of capital mobility prevailing within a group of core European Union (EU) countries is evaluated by means of cointegration-based tests of the covered interest parity (CIP). Unlike previous studies, this one concentrates on long maturities, investigating three to ten-year assets, and employing swap rates as a means of covering foreign exchange risk. Although CIP has not been previously assessed for EU long-term interest rates, such evaluation has practical interest. In fact, given EU member states' scarcity of mechanisms to react to asymmetric shocks, financial markets may become one major source of adjustment and stabilization. To this end, it is the mobility of long-term capital that is of critical importance. The analysis in this paper suggests that long-term financial flows appear to be completely unrestrained only between domestic Dutch and German markets.     

An examination of real interest rates in the United States, Canada, France, and Germany during the recent floating exchange rate period

This study reexamines the international linkage of ex-ante real interest rates using the theory of cointegrated processes. The univariate unit root tests suggest the existence of a nonstationary real interest rate in the United States, Canada, and (the former) West Germany. An ex-ante real interest rate is obtained by subtracting estimates of inflation from the nominal interest rate. The expected inflation rates are obtained by modeling changes in monthly CPI values as autoregressive moving average (ARMA) processes. A multivariate test for unit roots indicates that there are two cointegrating vectors, or one common stochastic trend, for the system of three nonstationary real interest rates. In addition, the log-likelihood ratio test fails to reject the null hypothesis that, in the long run, real interest rates in the United States are equal to those in Canada and West Germany.     

The profitability of carry trades

The uncovered interest parity (UIP) condition suggests that carry trades whereby investors borrow in the low interest rate currency and invest in the high interest rate currency should not result in excess profits over the long run. In this paper, we test the significance of the conventional empirical failure of UIP condition. Using the four bilateral pound parities we fail to detect significant excess carry trade profits for the yen, euro and swiss franc–pound parities. The only parity for which the carry trade consistently makes excess profits is the dollar–pound parity. This result is somewhat surprising as this is the currency pair with the lowest interest rate differential. We are extremely grateful for the anonymous referee’s comments on this paper.     

Commodity Trade and the Carry Trade: A Tale of Two Countries

Persistent interest rate differentials account for much of the currency carry trade profitability. “Commodity currencies” offer high interest rates on average, while countries that export finished goods tend to have low interest rates. We develop a general equilibrium model of international trade and currency pricing where countries have an advantage in producing either basic inputs or final goods. In the model, domestic production insulates commodity‐producing countries from global productivity shocks, forcing final‐good producers to absorb them. Commodity‐currency exchange rates and risk premia increase with productivity differentials and trade frictions. These predictions are strongly supported in the data.     

Uncovered interest parity: The long and the short of it

Uncovered interest rate parity (UIP) is a theoretical relation linking changes in exchange rates and corresponding interest rate differentials. Despite its considerable intellectual appeal, uncovered interest rate parity has very often been found wanting empirically. I reinvestigate this relation using a 17-country panel of historical time series data at its longest—for the US–UK country pair—spanning 217 years. I find results that are largely consistent with theory: over the long term, in most countries, bond yields expressed in common currency bear a positive relationship to one another as UIP predicts. This is in contrast to the very nearly opposite findings reported in much of the literature and now taken as a stylized fact.     

Covered interest parity with default risk

In this paper we derive a simple model of covered interest parity (CIP) with the assumption that interbank money market rates are risky. The model assumes that the default risk of uncollateralised loans can be hedged perfectly by credit default swap contracts. We show that the no-arbitrage condition is satisfied by a band. The location of this no-arbitrage band depends on the relative riskiness of the two counterparties in the CIP trade. We present evidence on the performance of the model for developed currency pairs in 2008–2011. We find that FX swap spreads (CIP deviations calculated from interbank interest rates of two countries) either fluctuated within the no-arbitrage bands or were close to the edges of the no-arbitrage bands.     

Convergence of Real Capital Market Interest Rates—Evidence from Inflation Indexed Bonds

This paper investigates the convergence of long‐term ex ante real interest rates (RIRs) obtained from Canadian, French, UK, and U.S. inflation indexed government bonds. In contrast to previous research, our evidence suggests full convergence in the long run and, hence, capital market integration. For the same sample period, global convergence is rejected for RIRs measured in conventional terms. From these results, we conclude that previous tests of the long‐run real interest rate parity might have suffered from weak measurement of real capital market interest rates.