企业所得税制度改革对投资的激励效果——基于上市公司数据的实证检验

以2004～2008年上市公司数据为样本,将所得税改革影响嵌入固定资产的投资成本(资本成本)中,对资本成本变化及其与投资额变化的关系进行研究,检验2008年所得税改革是否促进了企业投资.结果发现,2008年的企业所得税改革确实降低了公司的投资成本.按改革前后税率变化方向将样本分为两个组并做进一步统计分析发现:所得税税率上升的企业,资本成本上升,并导致企业投资额下降;所得税税率下降的企业,资本成本明显降低,但资本成本的下降并没有对投资产生明显的促进作用.     

增值税转型改革与企业固定资产投资决策——基于中国上市公司数据的面板双重差分模型分析

通过选择我国上市公司财务数据,采用面板双重差分模型,从企业微观层面分析增值税转型改革对企业固定资产投资决策的影响。研究发现:增值税转型改革显著提高了企业固定资产投资,有利于老工业基地的固定资产更新改造和优化产业结构;但从长期效果看,转型政策对企业投资行为的影响存在滞后期,而且不同地区的投资激励效果也有显著差异。     

税制结构变迁对企业投资行为的影响研究——基于税负转嫁视角

在经济转型发展的背景下，企业“稳投资”对于确保经济平稳健康发展具有重要意义。笔者以2008—2016年沪深A股非金融类上市公司为研究样本，基于税负转嫁视角研究了税制结构变迁对企业固定资产投资行为的影响及其作用机制。研究发现：提升间接税比重对企业固定资产投资没有显著影响，而提升直接税比重则显著促进了企业固定资产投资。进一步的异质性分析结果表明，提升直接税比重对企业固定资产投资的影响效应主要来自大型企业、国有企业和融资约束程度低的企业。作用机制分析结果表明，直接税比重的提升在降低企业现金流水平的同时通过增加企业债务融资来促进企业固定资产投资水平的增长。本文研究为近年来固定资产投资增速快速下滑的现象提供了微观解释，为制定有助于企业实现“稳投资”目标的政策提供了参考。     

基于面板数据的中国上市公司所得税影响因素实证研究

企业所得税除了与税率相关以外,主要受到固定资产规模和人力资本投资的影响。本文使用面板数据模型分析上市公司相关财务数据,研究固定资产规模和人力资本投资对所得税的影响。研究发现,企业所得税额与固定资产规模、工资薪金存在着显著性关系,但行业之间存在显著差异。因此,有必要依据行业特点,按照企业所得税额与固定资产规模和工资薪金的影响方向和程度,制定不同的行业所得税管理办法以及优惠政策。     

税收变化与上市公司股利政策选择

本文通过在回归方程中引入反映税率政策变化的虚拟变量,主要分析了2006年前后上市公司的股利政策是否随税率变化做出调整。实证结果显示,中国上市公司股利政策行为与经典财务理论相悖,表明上市公司缺乏回报股东的责任意识,股东利益并不是影响他们股利政策的主要因素。研究还发现,在研究期内融资成本的下降趋势对提高上市公司股利派发水平有正面影响,而投资机会和上市公司短期偿债能力对上市公司股利政策的影响并不显著。     

增值税税率下调对企业投资影响的实证研究——基于减税的中介效应

通过采取双重差分法及中介效应模型实证检验增值税税率下调对企业投资的影响,可以发现:(1)增值税税率下调对企业投资规模具有显著促进作用;(2)增值税税率下调在投资机会成本效应及价格效应作用下可以有效降低企业税费负担;(3)企业税费负担的降低在增值税税率下调和企业投资规模之间发挥了中介作用,即增值税税率下调通过影响企业税费负担能够显著影响企业投资规模。基于研究结论,本文提出以下建议:在增值税税率下调的同时,进一步简并增值税税率,增强税制改革的红利;强化税收政策对特定类型投资的激励作用,优化企业投资结构;企业要同时注重投资规模和投资效率的优化。     

股票价格波动对投资影响的实证分析

中国股票市场对投资影响的实证分析表明，我国股票市场对企业投资能力，企业家信心以及全社会固定资产投资的影响效应都不明显。造成这种现象的原因有：我国股票市场规模太小，上市公司只占所有企业的一小部分；上市公司股权结构过于集中，非流通股占绝对控股地位；以及公众对股票投资与实际投资收益预期的非一致性造成股票投资对生产性投资的“挤出效应”等。     

营改增对房地产行业税负影响的实证分析

我国从2012年开始在上海部分行业进行营改增试点,到目前为止,该项政策已经在全国推开,并且取得了不错的反响。开展营改增的目的是降低企业税负,逐步消除重复征税。但是,就目前的实施情况来看,部分房地产行业企业的税负出现了不降反升的现象。因此,本文以房地产行业为研究对象,对其税改前后流转税负率进行配对检验,结果显示,税改前后房地产行业上市公司的实际税负不存在显著差异。     

特朗普税制改革取向及其影响北大核心CSSCI

本文围绕特朗普的税改理念与建议,分析美国税制改革的价值取向以及可能产生的影响,认为:未来特朗普税改会受到美国政治预算制度、财政承受能力、各国税收合作体制三重制约,效力大打折扣,但却会在国际范围内产生示范效应,导致各国竞相降低税率;美国降低税率还将严重影响国际资本流动规模与趋势,预计海外资本将加剧回流美国;美国治理跨国公司"税收倒置"难题将影响我国吸引外商投资和我国对美投资进程。基于以上分析,建议我国加大吸引外资政策优惠力度,并继续加速推进中美投资保护协议谈签。     

留抵退税政策对制造业企业投资与就业的影响研究

增值税留抵退税政策，在企业纾困和推动制造业高质量发展过程中被寄予厚望。笔者以2018年增值税留抵退税政策改革为契机，利用2014—2019年我国A股制造业上市公司的财务数据，采用双重差分模型(DID)实证检验留抵退税政策对制造业企业固定资产投资、研发投资和劳动力就业的影响机制。实证结果表明，留抵退税政策显著促进了制造业企业固定资产投资和研发投资，但对劳动力就业产生显著的“挤出”效应；留抵退税政策通过降低企业资本成本、提高主营业务专注度促进制造业企业研发投资，推动制造业高质量发展；政策对民营企业作用相较于国有企业和外资企业更为显著。基于此，本文提出要系统认识留抵退税政策的“光”与“影”,降低制度性交易成本，与稳就业政策协调配合，降低制造业企业社保缴费比例，并适度给予财政补贴，以进一步提升制造业广义投资水平。     

税收规避与财务报告成本的权衡研究——来自中国2008年所得税改革的证据

本文以我国2008年所得税改革为契机,借鉴Shackelford和Shevlin(2001)的税与非税因素权衡模型,实证考察有减税预期的上市公司在税收规避中是否权衡了财务报告成本。本文发现,有减税预期的公司存在将减税之前期间的利润推迟确认到未来低所得税率期间的盈余管理行为,且为避免这一行为过于明显而遭致惩罚,利润跨期转移的期间宽度较长。但有着高财务报告成本的公司明显降低了这一跨期利润转移的动机。研究证实了我国上市公司在税收规避决策中权衡了税与财务报告成本。研究结论有助于进一步丰富盈余管理文献,对当前我国税收制度改革具有一定参考意义。     

中美所得税改革取向的差异

本文认为,中国、美国截然相反的消费和储蓄经济结构,决定了两国所得税改革的政策取向不同。美国实行消费型的联邦所得税改革符合其低储蓄、高消费的经济现状,而我国高储蓄、高投资、低消费的经济结构,决定了我国应实行储蓄型或投资型税制改革,我国所得税的改革应更多地鼓励消费而不是储蓄或投资。     

Corporate Financing Decisions and Non-Debt Tax Shields: Evidence from Italian Experiences in the 1990s

Between 1995 and 1999, Italy experienced three episodes of fiscal reform during which different categories of non-debt tax shields were introduced, including a classical investment tax credit, a system of dual income taxation, and an investment tax credit restricted to equity financed investments. Using the balance sheets of a large sample of Italian companies, we construct a data set which allows us to evaluate the impact of the different fiscal interventions. We apply MacKie-Mason's (1990) method to study incremental financing decisions using discrete choice analysis. The analysis shows that the measures introduced were successful in reducing the advantage of debt financing relative to equity financing. We relate the findings to the current literature on the determinants of capital structure. JEL Code: G32, H25     

The crowding-out effect of zombie companies on fixed asset investment: Evidence from China

This paper attempts to investigate the relationship between zombie companies and normal companies' fixed asset investment. Our empirical research finds that zombies will crowd out the fixed asset investment of normal companies, and this result remains stable under many robustness tests. Heterogeneity analysis reveals that the crowding-out effect mainly exists in non-SOEs, companies with small tax contributions, and companies in light industries, while SOEs, companies with large tax contributions, and heavy industrial sectors are unaffected by zombies. It's also shown that zombie companies crowd out fixed asset investment by increasing financing constraints, raising financing costs and destroying the industry's competitive environment. We further find that improving the regional institutional environment can alleviate zombies' crowding-out effect. Overall, our paper enriches the research on zombie companies' negative impact on normal companies and emphasizes the importance of strengthening the construction of the institutional environment.     

An Investment Management Methodology for Publicly Held Property/Casualty Insurers

Investment officers of publicly held property/casualty companies wrestle with the question of how best to contribute to shareholder value. Should they view themselves as managers of a closed‐end investment company that happens to be funded by insurance underwriting? Or should they instead be investing funds primarily to defease the firm's liabilities and thus support the operations of a company whose principal value derives from its insurance activities? The authors of this article suggest that the investment policy of most insurance companies should have two primary objectives: (1) immunizing insurance reserves with a fixed‐income portfolio and (2) earning “abnormal returns” on surplus in “a responsible and disciplined” way. The latter means adhering to an asset allocation approach that takes account of the risk‐reward tradeoffs presented by a broad variety of investment types as well as the accounting treatment of investment income. Both accounting and economic considerations lead the authors to suggest that after‐tax net investment income (“NII”), as defined by U.S. GAAP, is the best benchmark of performance. While focusing mainly on the fixed income part of the portfolio, the authors suggest active management and portfolio approaches that aim to produce a growing, but relatively stable NII. Consistent with GAAP's treatment of NII (which includes interest income but excludes most capital gains) as “recurring income,” the authors argue that the market appears to assign significantly higher multiples to NII than to other sources of reported income.     

“两税合一”对台湾上市公司股利税资本化的影响

本文以1994～2001年两税合一税制实施前后的台湾上市公司为样本，运用Harris-Kemsley股利税后收益模型，探讨所得税制改革对权益投资者收益的影响，以及两税合一税制的实施对股利税资本化的影响。实证结果表明：两税合一税制实施前，台湾上市公司的末分配盈余与其股利税资本化程度负相关，即股利税资本化效果存在；两税合一税制实施后，台湾上市公司的股利税资本化程度低于两税合一前的程度。     

Host-country governance, tax treaties and US direct investment abroad

We investigate how the quality of the host-country governance and a bilateral US income tax treaty affect the rates of return that US companies require on their foreign direct investment (FDI). Using indexes of corruption and political instability, we find that poor governance causes the companies to require significantly higher rates of return. This lends support to earlier authors who have concluded that poor governance discourages both local investment and inward FDI. After accounting for the quality of host-country governance, however, no evidence could be found that an income tax treaty has any effect on the required rates of return.      

A growth oriented dual income tax

This paper proposes a growth oriented dual income tax by combining an allowance for corporate equity with a broadly defined flat tax on personal capital income. Revenue losses are compensated by an increase in the value added tax. The paper demonstrates the neutrality properties of the reform with respect to investment, firm financial decisions and organizational choice. Tax rates are chosen to prevent income shifting from labor to capital income. The reform decisively strengthens investment of domestically owned firms as well as home and foreign based multinationals and boosts savings. Simulations with a calibrated growth model for Switzerland indicate that the reform could add between 4 to 5 percent of GNP in the long-run, depending on the specific scenario. Given the slow nature of capital accumulation, it imposes considerable costs in the short-run. We consider a tax smoothing scenario to offset the intergenerationally redistributive effects. JEL Classification: D58, D92, E62, G32, H25     

Corporate flat tax reforms and businesses’ investment decisions: evidence from Switzerland

This paper focuses on the effects of a corporate income flat tax reform on businesses’ investment decisions. Since 1990, several Swiss states (cantons) have been switching from a graduated to a flat tax rate scheme on profits. The paper assesses the effects of such a reform both on the number of establishments (i.e. extensive margin of investment) and on the number of employees (i.e. intensive margin) in a given jurisdiction by computing a difference-in-differences estimation. Our results suggest that the introduction of a flat tax reform on corporate income taxes has a negative and statistically significant impact on both margins of investment. Moreover, the effect is considerably larger for riskier firms, suggesting that progressive taxation acts as an insurance effect for risk-averse entrepreneurs.     

一个有远见的税收制度应当关注未来的税基——特朗普新税法的成本分析及政策建议

20世纪50年代以来,美国企业所得税税率持续下降,政府税收收入也处于较低水平。2017年,特朗普新税法的实施大幅度降低了企业所得税税率,导致政府税收损失远超预期。然而,新税法实施后,美国企业投资和长期经济增长并没有明显改善。本文认为,一个国家经济效率主要取决于税基而非税率,美国政府应通过税收制度改革,增加对企业投资和研发投入的激励,从而扩大税基,实现经济的长期改善。