外汇市场上官方干预的理论述评与发展趋势

过去三十多年,外汇干预理论得到了很大发展,主要体现在干预的有效性、干预的目标、干预的影响渠道和干预的盈利性等方面。外汇干预理论的未来发展趋势在于外汇干预影响渠道的拓展与检验、外汇干预的微观结构基础、外汇干预的政治决定等方面。     

全球外汇市场与央行外汇干预新趋势

目前,全球外汇市场发展趋势和交易形式出现了一些新特点,其中外汇衍生产品在全球特别是新兴市场发展迅猛。同时,各国央行为维持汇率稳定、保证经济平稳增长,对外汇干预也采取了新的形式,而这些变化将对商业银行行为产生新的影响。本文对上述情况进行了分析,并结合我国商业银行状况提出了政策建议。     

人民币外汇市场压力与央行外汇干预的经验估计

本文采用Weymark指数法估计了1994年来我国面临的外汇市场压力和央行外汇干预指数,实证结果显示1994年来人民币一直面临着升值压力,样本期间中央银行平均干预指数为0.97,说明我国央行实行的是强势干预政策以保持人民币汇率的稳定。利用人民币外汇市场压力指数对我国潜在货币危机的研究表明,2005年人民币汇率改革之后,人民币面临的外汇市场压力过度了,存在货币危机的可能性。     

韩国外汇市场干预经验与启示

作为亚洲新兴市场国家,韩国成功实现了从固定汇率制到有管理的浮动汇率制的转型,最终实现了自由浮动汇率制。研究韩国外汇市场干预的动机、传导机制和成效,对致力于外汇市场建设的我国有一定借鉴意义。一、韩国外汇制度的变迁1964年5月,韩国确定了以255韩元兑换1美元为基础汇率的"单一浮动汇率制"。1979年3月,韩国允许国外银行在韩国的分行与韩国银行之间进行外汇掉期交易。1980年2月起,韩元与美     

我国中央银行对外汇市场干预效力分析

本文主要对中央银行外汇市场干预的有效性进行了分析。中央银行干预外汇市场的基本方式包括冲销式干预和非冲销式干预,前者不会引起国内货币供应量的变动,可以借助利率机制间接强化干预效力。由于我国的利率形成机制尚未市场化,加上对资本项目的严格管制,非冲销式干预难以发挥其应有的作用。因此,增强我国中央银行对外汇市场干预效力的关键是要创造有利于市场干预的制度。     

论信号渠道的外汇干预有效性

作者首先对信号渠道外汇干预有效性的研究进行了文献综述,国内外多数研究支持信号渠道假设;其次,对外汇干预的信号渠道假设做了理论分析,外汇干预将影响货币供给、人们对未来汇率的预期,进而影响汇率;最后,通过协整分析方法证明我国外汇干预发出了未来货币政策的"信号",支持信号渠道假设。     

外汇市场干预的有效性分析

本文主要对中央银行外汇市场干预的有效性进行了分析,干预的有效性和成本因干预的类型、条件和工具的不同而不同。特别是在考虑汇率制度和资本替代因素以后,冲销干预的效果会受到很大的影响。并对我国中央银行的冲销干预进行了研究。     

对央行外汇市场干预的新思考

2008年12月初,人民币汇率出现了汇改三年多以来最严重的连续贬值态势,为此,央行也启动了外汇市场干预措施.但新时期央行外汇市场干预究竟有无必要,干预方式存在哪些变化以及我国央行外汇市场干预的政策建议等都需要认真探讨和研究.     

发达经济体外汇干预体系的实践与启示

本文研究了发达经济体外汇干预体系的现行做法,总结了发达国家外汇干预体系的经验;探讨了如何通过市场手段对外汇市场进行干预以保持汇率的稳定,有效解决外汇占款产生的基础货币过量投放所产生的流动性过剩与保持汇率稳定之间的矛盾,并在此基础上对我国外汇干预提出了政策建议。     

外汇市场的协同波动与联合干预

本文以ARMA-GARCH,GARCH-M及EGARCH模型检验中国、日本及韩国1997年1月至2010年9月的实际汇率波动,及是否存在风险溢价和杠杆效应,结果发现:中国汇率波动最为平稳,而韩国汇率波动最大,并且存在显著的风险溢价和杠杆效应。我们另外考量了中央银行干预对汇率波动的影响,发现日本中央银行干预最为有效,而韩国中央银行干预最为无效。此外,我们以BEKK-MGARCH模型检验中日韩三国的汇率协同波动现象,发现中日韩三国之间的汇率皆具有正向协同波动关系,而以日韩的协同波动持续性最为显著。若考量央行联合干预,则中日汇率的协同波动性将提高,日韩汇率的协同波动性将明显降低。此外,中日及日韩的联合干预对汇率协同波动有显著的政策效应。     

央行汇市干预的效果与经验

外汇市场干预是大多数国家央行管理汇率的主要手段。2008年全球金融危机以及其后的欧美债务危机,使得金融市场动荡加剧,外汇市场因避险资金的流动也日益不平静,央行的汇市干预在目标、方式、效果、影响等方面部呈现出一些新的特点,文章对此进行回顾和总结,并从将外汇干预作为宏观调控的组成部分、变被动干预为主动干预以及扩展干预模式等方面,就进一步完善央行汇市干预方式提出政策建议。     

Reported and secret interventions in the foreign exchange markets

Using a new approach relying on news wire reports, we estimate the proportion of secret interventions (i.e., unreported official interventions) in the foreign exchange markets that have been conducted by the three major central banks since 1985. We therefore revisit the estimation of conditional probabilities of secret operations and compute them by both central bank and operation type. The proportion of secret interventions is found to be lower for concerted operations and to display a great deal of variability over time as well as across the three major central banks. Our analysis reveals that the Bank of Japan has recently adopted an intervention policy more based on secret operations.     

日元汇率变动的影响因素及走势分析

2012年2月份以来,日元大幅贬值,市场对于日元是否已进人中长期贬值通道展开了热烈讨论,日元贬值论也甚嚣尘上。文章在分析导致日元历史与近期贬值趋势的影响因素的基础上,尝试对日元汇率的未来走势进行判断,指出在当前市场环境下,日元存在短期内温和贬值的可能,但尚未发现足以推动日元中长期贬值的市场力量,目前判断日元已进人中长期贬值通道还为时尚早。     

全球外汇衍生品交易的发展特点及启示

该文根据国际清算银行对全球外汇衍生品交易的调查统计情况,对全球外汇衍生品交易及主要交易货币的在岸与离岸外汇衍生品交易的发展特点进行了归纳,以期为国内外汇衍生品市场的发展提供借鉴。文章指出,结合本国汇率和资本项目管理体制改革逐步取消外汇衍生品交易的实需原则,有利于在维护金融稳定的前提下进一步发展本国的外汇衍生品市场。     

夯实做市商制度建设协力推进外汇市场发展

近年来,外汇市场汇价波幅逐步有序拓宽,而面对不断扩大的汇率波幅,一些做市机构的交易员出现了不适应的情况。文章指出,外汇做市商制度的切实履行和健全完善,对于规范做市交易与市场良性交易氛围的形成和推广,具有至关重要的作用。文章介绍了我国外汇市场建立做市商制度的目的、所采取的相关配套制度改革,展望做市商考评机制的改进方向,并就进一步规范外汇市场发展提出相关倡议。     

Heterogeneous real-time trading strategies in the foreign exchange market

The foreign exchange (FX) market is worldwide, but the dealers differ in their geographical locations (time zones), working hours, time horizons, home currencies, access to information,transaction costs, and other institutional constraints. The variety of time horizones is large: from intra-day dealers, who close their positions every evening, to long-term investors and central banks. Depending on the constraints, the different market participats need different strategies to reach their goal, which is usually maximizing the profit, or rather a utility function including risk. Different intra-day trading strategies can be studied only if high-density data are available. Oslen & Associates (O & A) has collected and analysed large amounts of FX quotes by market makers around the clock (up to 5000 non-equally spaced prices per day for the German mark against US$). Based on these data, a set of real-time intra-day trading models has been developed. These models give explicit trading recommendations under realistic constraints. They are allowed to trade only during the opening hours of a market, depending on the time zone and local holidays. The models have been running real-time for more than three years, thus leading to an ex ante test. The test results, obtained with a risk-sensitive performance measure, are presented. All these trading models are profitable, but they differ in their risk behaviour and dealing frequency. If a certain profitable intra-day algorithm is tested with different working hours, its success can considerably change. A systematic study shows that the best choice of working hours is usually when the most important markets for the particular FX rate are active. All the results demonstrate that the assumption of a homogeneous 24-hour FX market with identical dealers, following an identical ‘rational expectation’, is far from reality. To explain the market dynamics, a heterogeneous model of the market with different types of dealers is more appropriate.     

银行间外汇市场的规模比较和因素分析

该文将我国银行间外汇市场规模水平与新兴经济体比较,发现市场的“换手率”偏低,市场交易的功能并不十分突出。通过进一步探索,从实证的角度发现和证明人民币汇率的可交易性不强,表现为汇率本身的波动性不足、市场流动性与市场成交水平弱相关、市场参与者的交易存在同质化现象、头寸等管理制度对参与者的交易行为具有明显的约束。文章最后研究了发达市场上汇率的交易状态以资借鉴。     

人民币汇率双向波动，成交量大幅增长——2008年4月银行闻外汇市场运行简报

2008年4月,银行间外汇市场交易活跃,交易量总体大幅增长。与2007年同期相比,4月人民币外汇远期成交量同比增长17．gg％;人民币外汇掉期成交量同比增长64．16％;外币对成交量同比下降10．08％;外币拆借成交量同比下降14．86％。人民币兑美元汇率中间价首次突破7．0,人民币对美元、港元、日元、欧元和英镑汇率中间价均呈现明显双向波动态势。与2008年3月末中间价相比,4月末人民币兑美元汇率中间价累计升值0．27％。与2005年汇改当日中间价比,4月末人民币累计升值18．23％。     

Financial intermediation and the role of price discrimination in the foreign exchange market

Foreign exchange trading is performed in opaque and decentralized markets. The two-tier market structure consisting of a customer segment and an interdealer segment to which only market makers have access gives rise to the possibility of price discrimination. We develop a theoretical pricing model that accounts for market-power considerations and analyze a database of the trades of a foreign exchange market maker. We find that the market maker generally exerts low bargaining power vis-á-vis customers. The dealer earns lower average spreads on trades with financial customers than commercial customers, even though the former are perceived to convey exchange-rate-relevant information.     

Explaining the accounting disclosure index of stock exchanges by foreign exchange market activity

In this article, researcher-created accounting disclosure index of 23 stock exchanges for the year 1992 and its relationship with variables including foreign exchange turnover, economic and financial indicators were investigated. The accounting disclosure index of global stock exchanges crafted by Adhikari and Tondkar (1992) was regressed on foreign market turnover which was utilized as a proxy for foreign exchange market activity. The OLS results supported that along with the activity of foreign exchange market; GNI per capita, market capitalization, energy and electric consumption, number of listed companies were significantly related with the accounting disclosure index. The foreign market turnover was found to be positively influencing the accounting disclosure index. The models explained about 73% of the variation in the index with an F-ratio of 26.56 indicating the overall significance of the model.