中央银行外汇干预:操作方式与效用评价

本文将外汇干预、货币政策转型纳入到NK-DSGE理论模型框架中,引入风险规避的外汇交易者,在传统非抛补利率平价表达中加入资本管制因素,研究不同类型冲击、不同外汇干预情景下宏观经济变量的反应。研究结果表明:中央银行进行外汇干预时,采用不同的干预方式对汇率波动程度的影响有所不同;相较于任意干预,基于规则的干预对汇率的调整过程更为稳健,且比任意干预成本更小;在应对冲击方面,任意干预效果不显著,基于规则的干预则具有较强的稳定作用;外汇干预与货币政策在一般均衡框架下具有很强的互动性。中央银行应构建外汇干预策略框架,建立外汇干预目标体系,设定人民币汇率干预区间,并在此基础上选择合理的干预方式,量化干预效果,做好外汇干预的事后评估,以保障宏观经济的稳健运行。     

外汇干预理论与我国的实践

本文利用外汇干预的理论,分析了我国外汇干预的机制以及1994年以来外汇干预的实践,并针对我国外汇干预中干预目标存在偏差,干预工具选择余地有限等问题,提出调整外汇干预目标、建立外汇平准基金、加快利率市场化等对策建议。     

外汇市场上官方干预的理论述评与发展趋势

过去三十多年，外汇干预理论得到了很大发展，主要体现在干预的有效性、干预的目标、干预的影响渠道和干预的盈利性等方面。外汇干预理论的未来发展趋势在于外汇干预影响渠道的拓展与检验、外汇干预的微观结构基础、外汇干预的政治决定等方面。     

如何理解当前中国外汇储备的大幅增长

中国外汇储备数据与直观感受之间的落差源于两种统计口径:一是以人民币计价和历史成本法计算的央行外汇干预形成的外汇储备;二是按美元计价和市场价值计算的外汇储备,含外汇干预、投资收益和汇率变动等因素.     

中央银行外汇干预的国际经验——基于面板工具变量法的分析北大核心CSSCISSCI

外汇干预作为一项重要的政策工具被各国央行广泛采用,在当前中国外汇干预存在争议的背景下,总结中央银行外汇干预国际经验具有重要意义。本文选取哥伦比亚和新西兰两个代表性国家总结其外汇干预经验,然后基于面板工具变量法,对全球23个国家和地区的外汇干预有效性进行实证分析。结果表明,中央银行正向外汇干预对名义双边汇率和实际有效汇率均有减缓波动的作用,达到了稳定汇率的效果。从现阶段来看,当前外汇干预作为维护汇率稳定、调节内外平衡的政策权限,应该予以保留。我国中央银行要实现合理的干预行为,需要有恰当的干预时机、灵活的干预方式、与之协调的干预目标,以及配套的宏观经济政策和逐步完善的市场环境。     

央行外汇干预的短期效应与长期效应

自从1973年布雷顿森林体系解体以来,世界经济金融一体化加速,汇率波动加剧,为了稳定汇率波动、保证进出口贸易和国际金融交易,各国央行都进入外汇市场买卖外汇以干预汇率。本文研究的对象是我国央行外汇市场的干预行为,在论证中明确了我国央行外汇干预的长期目标和短期目标,运用M—F模型分析了不同程度的跨境资本流动管制下央行冲销干预与非冲销干预的效应,发现无论央行进行冲销干预还是非冲销干预,从长期来看都不影响实际汇率水平,即央行干预在长期是"中性"的,但央行外汇干预在短期内可以影响汇率水平。在充分分析我国央行外汇市场干预效应的基础上提出几点建议。     

发达经济体外汇干预体系的实践与启示

本文研究了发达经济体外汇干预体系的现行做法，总结了发达国家外汇干预体系的经验；探讨了如何通过市场手段对外汇市场进行干预以保持汇率的稳定，有效解决外汇占款产生的基础货币过量投放所产生的流动性过剩与保持汇率稳定之间的矛盾，并在此基础上对我国外汇干预提出了政策建议。     

基于IV-GARCH模型的外汇干预有效性实证研究

外汇干预有效性评估历来都是外汇干预决策、实施及评估过程中的关键性问题,对于汇率政策的制定具有重要意义。本文通过拟合央行外汇干预反应函数,构造出合理有效的工具变量,进而修正GARCH模型在评估外汇干预有效性中的偏误。实证结果表明,1993～2004年间日本央行外汇干预操作由侧重调控汇率偏离水平,逐渐向压制短期内剧烈的负向波动转移;虽然抑制或扭转了日元相对美元的中短期升值,但却不可避免地增加了汇率波动,带来额外的货币风险。     

市场预期对外汇干预效果的影响

当今各国所采用的汇率制度,即使是浮动汇率制度,也常常伴随着中央银行的外汇市场干预行为,故而被称为管理浮动汇率制度。中央银行的外汇干预具有多种动机,如为了避免汇率过度的短期波动,或是控制汇率的中长期走势,甚至借以改变货币供应量等。本文主要讨论中央银行从汇率目标出发在外汇市场进行干预,以便使市场汇率与目标汇率一致的外汇买卖行为。鉴于中央银行的外汇干预会导致市场预期的变化,而这种变化既可能有助于也可能不利于干预目标的实现,因此,分析市场预期对于提高外汇干预的效果无疑具有至关重要的意义。理论模型分析鉴于汇率在现代…     

我国汇率制度和外汇干预方式的演变

本文回顾了我国汇率制度改革和外汇干预方式演变的历史，提出汇率制度演变与整体经济体制改革路径相一致．汇率制度改革的总体方向是市场化。外汇干预是我国汇率制度改革到一定程度才出现的．外汇干预的冲销方式演变体现了我国中央银行的主动性和创新性。     

央行汇市干预的效果与经验

外汇市场干预是大多数国家央行管理汇率的主要手段。2008年全球金融危机以及其后的欧美债务危机,使得金融市场动荡加剧,外汇市场因避险资金的流动也日益不平静,央行的汇市干预在目标、方式、效果、影响等方面部呈现出一些新的特点,文章对此进行回顾和总结,并从将外汇干预作为宏观调控的组成部分、变被动干预为主动干预以及扩展干预模式等方面,就进一步完善央行汇市干预方式提出政策建议。     

A stopping time approach to assessing the effectiveness of foreign exchange intervention: An application to Japanese data

I propose a new methodology to assess the effect of foreign exchange (FX) intervention, based on the probability of an FX rate reaching. The variable is the probability of an FX rate reaching a particular threshold before reaching another. Importantly, the probability depends on not only the level, but also the trend and volatility of a current FX rate. When an intervention changes the probability in a desired direction, the intervention is effective. The notable feature of the probability is that it considers both the level and volatility of an FX rate comprehensively, while previous studies have examined these effects of FX intervention separately. Empirical results based on regression and nearest-neighbor analyses applied to Japanese data indicate that publicity and size are significant in the effectiveness of intervention.     

FX Intervention in the New Keynesian Model

We develop an open-economy New Keynesian Model with foreign exchange (FX) intervention in the presence of a financial accelerator and shocks to risk appetite in international capital markets. We obtain closed-form solutions for optimal monetary and FX intervention policies assuming the central bank cannot commit to future policies, and we compare the solution to that under policy commitment. We show how FX intervention can help reduce the volatility of the exchange rate, of inflation, and of the output gap, thus mitigating welfare losses associated with shocks in the international capital markets. We also show that, when the financial accelerator is strong, there is a risk of indeterminacy (self-fulfilling currency and inflation movements) although FX intervention can reduce this risk and thus reinforce the credibility of the inflation targeting regime. Model simulations match well the impact of a VIX shock obtained by local projections on a panel of inflation targeting emerging markets.     

巴西外汇期货市场发展及其借鉴意义

作为金砖五国之一,近年来巴西外汇市场特别是外汇衍生品市场发展尤为迅速,其中外汇期货是巴西外汇产品序列中的佼佼者。巴西外汇期货市场的蓬勃发展离不开巴西金融监管机构的顶层设计和有效监管。多元化、成熟的外汇衍生品市场也为巴西央行干预外汇市场提供了创新性的工具。总结巴西外汇期货市场的经验,可以为我国外汇市场发展提供借鉴。     

结售汇如何影响银行风险承担水平?——基于银行资产负债表的视角

本文构建了一个基于银行资产负债表的理论模型,研究了结售汇对银行风险承担水平的影响机制,并采用结售汇报表数据进行实证检验。结果表明,为实现利润最大化,银行会将外汇流入创造的流动性用于投放较高风险的贷款,导致净结汇对银行风险承担水平有正向影响,异质性分析结果显示大型银行受影响程度高于中小银行。本文结论意味着,当考虑结售汇波动可能进一步加剧时,有必要出台更多结构性政策,补足外汇流入减少带来的货币缺口,优化存款市场结构,稳定金融机构流动性预期,以缓冲外需冲击可能带来的影响,并激励银行服务重心进一步下沉,为小微企业提供更多信贷支持,完成好金融服务实体经济的重要使命。     

Resolving the exposure puzzle: The many facets of exchange rate exposure

Theory predicts sizeable exchange rate (FX) exposure for many firms. However, empirical research has not documented such exposures. To examine this discrepancy, we extend prior theoretical results to model a global firm's FX exposure and show empirically that firms pass through part of currency changes to customers and utilize both operational and financial hedges. For a typical sample firm, pass-through and operational hedging each reduce exposure by 10–15%. Financial hedging with foreign debt, and to a lesser extent FX derivatives, decreases exposure by about 40%. The combination of these factors reduces FX exposures to observed levels.     

俄罗斯卢布汇率政策实施机制

文章分析了俄罗斯为最终实现卢布汇率自由浮动的汇率政策目标的制度探索,认为其现已建立起一套机制复杂但运作灵活的卢布汇率形成机制。文章介绍了2013年10月以来俄罗斯完善卢布汇率制的主要措施,包括扩大卢布对双货币篮子汇率每日浮动的“中立区间”,在卢布对双货币篮子汇率每日浮动区间中增设“技术区间”,下调每日外汇干预的目标额度等。     

Short-Term External Debt and Foreign Exchange Rate Volatility in Emerging Economies: Evidence from the Korea Market

Abstract:

We empirically analyze the main determinants of foreign exchange rate (FX) volatility in emerging market economies using the data of Korea corporations and financial institutions. We find that short-term external debt is more important than trading volume of foreign investors in explaining FX volatility. Our results suggest that short-term debt-controlling measures, such as a tax levy on short-term borrowing, can be more effective in moderating FX volatility than can the measures affecting the trading volume, such as a Tobin tax.     

The determinants of Norwegian exporters’ foreign exchange risk management

Abstract

This paper examines foreign exchange (FX) hedging by Norwegian exporting firms to provide empirical evidence on the determinants of the hedging decision. The paper contributes to prior studies by, first, focusing on exporters to ensure that the companies in the sample have FX exposure, thereby allowing a more rigorous test of the theoretical determinants of hedging, and, secondly, in contrast to most previous studies that have focused on FX external hedging instruments, the use of both internal and external instruments is examined. Univariate, multivariate and multinominal analyses all provide evidence consistent with the firm value maximization hypotheses of underinvestment and risk aversion. Also, the following characteristics of firms—size, extent of internationalization and liquidity—are found to be related to the decision to hedge FX risk. However, the evidence on the links between the firm characteristics and the decision to hedge is not consistent across internal and external FX hedgers, and also varies for individual hedging instruments. Therefore it is argued that the empirical evidence on the theoretical determinants cannot be generalized to cover the full range of FX hedging strategies (which includes internal hedging instruments). Unlike empirical studies for other countries the evidence for Norwegian firms does not support the hypothesis that the avoidance of financial distress and the need to resort to external capital markets is a significant determinant of the hedging decision. Whilst the evidence suggests that country-specific factors may play a role in determining the use of FX hedging, it does not imply that the different policies adopted are necessarily inconsistent with the firm value maximization hypothesis.     

Intervention policy of the BoJ: A unified approach

Intervening in the FX market implies a complex decision process for central banks. Monetary authorities have to decide whether to intervene or not, and if so, when and how. Since the successive steps of this procedure are likely to be highly interdependent, we adopt a nested logit approach to capture their relationships and to characterize the prominent features of the various steps of the intervention decision process. Our estimations based on Japanese data from 1991 to 2004 indicate that the Bank of Japan: (i) mainly reacted to deviations of the exchange rate with respect to fundamentals and (ii) tended to favour secrecy when its credibility was low. We also provide new insights on the so-called secrecy puzzle by modeling explicitly the risk for a secret intervention to be detected. Our results have important implications in terms of exchange rate policy, such as the emergence of a trade-off between intervention size, communication policy and secrecy. Our results tend to provide some explanation for the observed persistence of ineffective intervention policy during some sub-periods.