Intra-Industry Effects of Earnings Restatements Due to Accounting Irregularities

Abstract:  This paper investigates the intra-industry effects of earnings restatements due to accounting irregularities. We detect a significant contagion effect for rival firms whose cash flow characteristics are similar to those of the restating firm. The restatement doesn't seem to influence all the firms in the industry or firms that have a high probability of involving the same type of accounting irregularity as the restating firm does. We do not detect any competitive effect; nor do we find a significant change in the implied cost of equity capital of the rival firms, suggesting that the contagion effect is due to the revision in the expected short-run future earnings of the rival firms.     

Intra-Industry Effects of a Regulatory Shift: Capital Market Evidence from Penn Square

In this paper, we use stock market data to examine the intra-industry effects of the July 5, 1982, closure of the Penn Square bank. A sample of 54 bank stocks is divided into four portfolios: industry, money center, Texas, and upstream. The latter group consists of banks that had purchased loans directly from Penn Square. Our objective is to determine whether FDIC Chairman Isaac's decision to close, rather than merge, Penn Square had an industry-wide contagion effect or a firm-specific information effect. We conclude that the stock market reaction to the Penn Square closure represents a rational investor response to new bank-specific information.     

The Informational Content of Transactions

This paper studies the price discovery process in security markets. In particular, it analyzes the incorporation of information into security prices in a quote-driven security market from the perspective of information theory. In essence, it draws on a sequential trading mechanism, which is standard in market microstructure theory, and in which information is processed on the basis of individual transactions. It is demonstrated that the ex-ante information content of a transaction is proportionate to the average Kullback–Leibler distance of the prior and the posterior probability measures that quantify the uncertainty on the state of nature prior to and after that transaction, respectively. It is shown that the information on the state of nature, reflected in the security price, never decreases ex-ante by an upcoming transaction, which in turn accounts for the fact that the order flow is informationally valuable. Finally, it is pointed out that security markets in which the order flow is completely uninformative for the state of nature feature maximum depth; that is, those security markets are maximally liquid.Acknowledgements: I am grateful to David R. Wolf for his valuable guidance concerning some subtleties of information theory. The precious comments of an anonymous referee are appreciated.     

Intra-Industry Reactions to Stock Split Announcements

We examine whether favorable information conveyed by stock split announcements transfers to nonsplitting firms within the same industry. On average, nonsplitting firms' shareholders experience positive and significant abnormal returns at the stock split announcements of their industry counterparts. In addition, industrywide and firm-specific characteristics are important determinants in explaining nonsplitting firms' stock returns. These firms' earnings increase significantly, and the earnings changes are positively related to the stock price reactions. Finally, we find no evidence that investors revise the value of nonsplitting firms because they anticipate a decline in earnings volatility.     

中韩产业内贸易结构实证分析

本文采用实证分析方法,对中韩两国间的产业内贸易进行了测算.在此基础上将产业内贸易细分为水平型和垂直型两种形式.得出了中韩贸易的主要形式为产业内贸易,且在产业内贸易内部,垂直型贸易比例较大,水平型贸易份额逐步上升的基本结论.     

The Total Cost of Transactions on the NYSE

This paper develops a measure of execution costs (market impact) of transactions on the NYSE. The measure is the volume-weighted average price over the trading day. It yields results that are less biased than measures that use single prices, such as closes. The paper then applies this measure to a data set containing more than 14,000 actual trades. We show that total transaction costs, commission plus market impact costs, average twenty-three basis points of principal value for our sample. Commission costs, averaging eighteen basis points, are considerably higher than execution costs, which average five basis points. They vary slightly across brokers and significantly across money managers. Though brokers do not incur consistently high or low transaction costs, money managers experience persistently high or lost costs. Finally, the paper explores the possible tradeoff between commission expenditures and market impact costs. Paying higher commissions does not yield commensurately lower execution costs, even after adjusting for trade difficulty. We cannot determine whether other valuable brokerage services are being purchased with higher commission payments or whether some money managers really are inefficient consumers of brokerage trading services.     

The Credibility of Voluntary Disclosure and Insider Stock Transactions

We examine stock price reaction to voluntary disclosure of innovation strategy by high‐tech firms and its relation with insider stock transactions before the disclosure. We find that, despite the qualitative and subjective nature of strategy‐related disclosure, there is positive stock price reaction to the disclosure. The evidence suggests that investors view the disclosure as credible good news. We also find that the disclosure is associated with more positive stock price reaction when it is preceded by insider purchase transactions. This evidence is consistent with insider purchase enhancing the credibility of the disclosure. The credibility‐enhancing effect is found to be stronger for firms with higher degrees of information asymmetry (younger firms, firms with lower analyst following, loss firms, and firms with higher research and development (R&D) intensity). Our evidence also indicates that predisclosure insider purchase is associated with greater future abnormal returns, suggesting that managers are privy to good news shortly before the disclosure.     

基于Binary-SADT的可疑金融交易识别方法

针对目前使用静态数据挖掘技术识别可疑金融交易所面临的监测时效性低、数据覆盖面不全的问题,通过分析可疑金融交易的特征,本文提出了基于流数据分类挖掘的可疑金融交易识别算法,即Binary-SADT算法。SADT算法能够动态解决数据流挖掘中的概念漂移,Binary-SADT在SADT的基础上利用二叉排序树处理金融交易数据流中的连续属性,构建并及时更新识别可疑金融交易的分类模型。理论分析和实验结果表明该算法所构建的分类模型符合业内专家总结的可疑金融交易特征,验证了该算法的可行性和有效性。     

交易案例比较法中参考案例的选取

本文探讨了金融不良资产评估中以聚类分析方法选取参考案例的操作,旨在提高金融不良资产评估中交易案例比较法运用的科学性.     

On the Use of Intra-Industry Information to Improve Earnings Forecasts

We investigate whether earnings forecasts are improved by earlier earnings disclosures by firms in the same industry. We find improvements for time series forecasts, but not for analysts' forecasts. Considering prior earnings announcements reduces correlations between forecast errors and security price reactions to earnings announcements, even when incorporating these announcements improves forecast accuracy. Our explanation for this anomaly, which is supported by additional analysis, is that intra-industry information facilitates predicting transitory, rather than permanent, earnings components. The question of whether information transfers improve earnings forecasts provides the context for the analysis, but the primary contribution is the documentation of intra-industry information transfers in a setting other than capital markets.     

我国金融机构可疑交易监测的有效性分析

可疑交易监测分析就是通过收集、判断、识别的可疑资金交易报告,分析可疑交易并提炼涉嫌洗钱犯罪情报的过程。我国反洗钱工作主要以金融机构依据《管理办法》中有关规定上报的可疑交易数据为调查洗钱犯罪的基础。但由于反洗钱社会成本高和反洗钱制度的缺陷、分析信息的不全面,从而导致可疑交易报告质量不高、可疑交易分析有效性低的问题。要进一步提升我国可疑交易监测分析有效性,既要从源头掌握客户全部信息,通过激励机制提高可疑交易报告质量和举报积极性,通过多层次分析机制和引入先进的分析技术和可疑交易模型技术,这样才能进一步提高可疑交易监测分析的有效性,才能发现更多的洗钱犯罪线索,从而有效地打击各种洗钱犯罪活动。     

关联方交易的制度根源与监管启示

本文认为,关联方交易可以提高交易效率,具有存在的合理性;上市公司与控股股东发生的关联方交易属于管理的交易,具有不公允的必然性,而公司治理结构的不合理则是非公允关联方交易产生的制度基础。由此提出,不能完全取缔关联方交易,同时应完善公司治理结构来从根源上规范非公允关联方交易。     

论上市公司的关联交易及其监管

上市公司关联交易是指上市公司与其关联方之间相互转移资源或义务的一种商业交易行为。由于其普遍存在并具有与一般商业交易不同的特殊性，因而成为公司监管工作的一个重点和难点，我国上市公司的关联交易……     

认识人民币远期结售汇业务

在中国加大WTO之际，人民币的汇率走势格外引人关注。由于我国人民币汇率与美元挂钩，人民币兑其它货币的汇率是通过美元兑其它货币的汇率套算出来的，因此人民币汇率将随美元的波动而波动。央行货币政策最新公布的报告显示，受“9&;#183;11”恐怖袭击事件的影响，美国经济再次受到重创，今年三季度，美国经济出现了8年首次负增长。逐步走弱的美国经济决定了美元在国际汇市上的疲软态势，而人民币兑美元的汇率保持稳定时，人民币的“被动贬值”将难以避免，估计幅度在5％－10％之间。人民币的被动贬值，一方面有利于提高我国出口产品的价格竞争力；但另一方面，汇率的波动也会给外贸企业的进出口贸易带来汇庇风险。在这种情况下，人民币远期结售汇业必将再次成为自东南亚金融危机爆发以来，外贸企业用来规避汇率风险的重要手段。     

Reciprocal and Non-Reciprocal Transactions: The FASB's Stock-Based Compensation Project

Whether the FASB's conceptual framework can be used to derive accounting treatments has been debated. Mozes (1998) argued that the conceptual framework's high level of abstraction meant that several alternative views were possible for the treatment of stock-based compensation and that this was unhelpful. This article identifies a problem at the abstract level of the conceptual framework that requires resolution before Mozes' proposals to remedy the high level of abstraction may be acted upon—the inappropriateness of the conceptual framework's distinction between liabilities and equity. The conceptual framework is clear that equity transactions are non-reciprocal but the accounting treatment to be derived from this view is unacceptable and was not presented as an option in the stock-based compensation project. Instead, the FASB's basis for conclusions is based on reciprocal transactions, disguising the inappropriateness of the conceptual framework's definitions. Failure to revise the conceptual framework leaves the FASB, and other standard-setting bodies drawing on the FASB's concepts, open to developing serious inconsistencies in other pro-jects where the distinction between liabilities and equity is important, and without conceptual support for their stance on stock-based compensation.     

日本信用交易实践

随着《证券公司融资融券试点管理办法》自8月1日起的正式实施,证券信用交易在我国拉开帷幕。作者近期对日本信用交易考察所作的总结,想必能够为参与此业务的相关各方提供借鉴。     

交易喧嚣声后的投行布局

投资银行竞相"攀越长城" 中国正式加入WTO后,国际投资银行正在迈向其中国战略的纵深阶段,即将拓展目标指向了市场潜力更为巨大的沪深A股市场.除了二级市场的QFII业务,外资投行们期望超越过去的跨境交易,提供国内证券承销与企业并购等服务.第一波士顿前CEO麦晋桁(John J Mack)、摩根士丹利董事长兼CEO裴熙亮(Philip Purcell)、高盛董事长兼CEO汉克-保尔森(Hank Paulson)、美林董事长兼CEO斯坦利-奥尼尔(Stanley O'Neal)与摩根大通(JP Morgan Chase ＆Co.)掌门人威廉-哈里森(William Harrison)等预计,长远来看,中国股市将发展成熟,并逐渐取代香港和纽约,成为内地大型企业的首选上市地.华尔街投行极为重视完整的公司文化和控股权--为此,他们仿效18世纪末英王乔治三世的使臣马戛尔尼勋爵(Lord Macartney),入京游说有关部门,希望突破33%的持股限制(数年后该比例最高可升至49%).     

市场化改革的微观作用机制:关联交易视角

改革开放30多年来,我国各地区的市场化程度不断提高。大量学术研究和社会实践表明,市场化改革在宏观上有助于提高资本配置效率、促进经济增长。那么,市场化改革赖以发挥作用的微观机制是什么?目前这一问题尚未得到系统的解答。鉴于上市公司普遍存在的关联交易及其掏空后果一直为社会公众所诟病,本文以此为切入点考察市场化改革的微观作用机制。本文采用更直接的方法衡量关联交易的掏空后果,通过对我国2000—2008年11 946个上市公司样本的实证分析发现,市场化改革越彻底的地区,上市公司与控股股东的产品购销和资金往来等关联交易越少。并且,市场化程度的提高明显缓解了控股股东通过关联交易转移利润的掏空后果。因此,减少关联交易程度、缓解关联交易的掏空后果是我国市场化改革优化资源配置的一种重要微观机制。     

非货币性交易会计处理的最新进展及启示

美国新发布的财务会计准则公告第153号《非货币性资产交换》(FAS153),对非货币性资产交换会计处理的一般原则仍应以交换资产的公允价值为计量基础,但排除了APB意见书第29号有关非货币性交易以公允价值计量的例外,将其替换为不具有商业实质的交换的例外。本文分析了FAS153与我国非货币性交易准则之间的差异,及其对我国非货币性交易准则的启示,其中主要是“商业实质”在非货币性交易中的应用。