中国外汇市场与资本帐户可兑换的协调发展

中国对资本的管制，在阻挡破坏性的国际资本流动，调动外汇资源支持国家发展项目，维持独立的汇率政策，及保证有足够的外汇来支持中央计划体制的实施等方面，赶到相当好的作用。但其日益增加的负面影响也使这种外汇体制的改革不可避免。     

提高资本管制有效性和宏观调控能力的思考

“不可能三角”能否变形 目前我国外汇形势面临三重挑战一是强制结售汇制下的过剩外汇供给导致中央银行外汇占款的刚性增长，货币调控面临较大压力；二是伴随着资本的过度流入，相当规模的国际投机资本涌入我国，尤其盘踞于房地产行业，加大资源扭曲和资本投机：三是国际上要求人民币升值的压力日渐增高。     

如何完善资本项目外汇管理工作

资本项目外汇管理是国家外汇管理工作的重要内容之一.从现行的相关外汇管理政策措施来看,资本项目外汇管理存在诸多不足,已不能适应经济发展新形势的需要.为了适应新的经济形势下外汇管理工作的需要,提高外汇监管水平,加强资本项目外汇管理的统计监测、风险预警作用,健全和完善资本项目外汇管理工作,是十分必要的.……     

我国居民个人资本项目外汇管理探讨

由于目前我国实行经常项目完全可兑换，资本项目外汇严格管制的外汇管理制度．居民个人境内资本外逃、境外资本非法流入现象较为突出。本文分析了我国居民个人资本项目外汇管理现状和外汇流动趋势．探讨了我国居民个人资本项目外汇管理的难点．并提出了相应的建议。     

外汇资本验证若干问题的探讨

外汇资本验证系注册会计师对外商投资企业以外汇投入作为注册资本的验证,并由会计师事务所出具验资报告。与一般内资企业不同,外汇资本投入方式、时间等涉及国家有关诸多法律法规的约束规定,本文就外汇资本验证实务工作中的若干问题提出探讨。     

黑龙江省资本项目外汇收支形势分析

2008年上半年黑龙江省资本项目外汇流动保持了良好的发展态势。资本项目外汇收支和资本项目银行结售汇继续保持“双顺差”,外商直接投资速度放缓,外债流人增长较快;2008年下半年资本项目外汇收支和结售汇顺差压力依然较大;境内外投资外汇管理政策将进一步便利化。     

资本市场外汇管理现状及未来改革方向探讨

本文梳理了我国资本市场外汇管理模式,并分析了该模式存在的问题。在此基础上,本文认为应重新构建资本市场外汇管理制度,形成系统的管理框架,并完善资本市场外汇管理的风险监测体系,以应对外汇形势变化。     

对当前山东省资本项目外汇收支形势的分析与判断

随着山东省外向型经济的不断发展,资本项目外汇收支规模持续扩大,资本项目顺差在国际收支顺差中所占比重也在上升。本文通过对当前山东省资本项目外汇收支形势的分析,指出了当前资本项目外汇管理中存在的流出入失衡、外债短期化、统计监测体系不完善等一系列问题,并提出了完善资本项目外汇管理的相关政策建议。     

对当前山东省资本项目外汇收支形势的分析与判断

随着山东省外向型经济的不断发展,资本项目外汇收支规模持续扩大,资本项目顺差在国际收支顺差中所占比重也在上升.本文通过对当前山东省资本项目外汇收支形势的分析,指出了当前资本项目外汇管理中存在的流出入失衡、外债短期化、统计监测体系不完善等一系列问题,并提出了完善资本项目外汇管理的相关政策建议.     

外汇捐赠监管的不足

一、对外汇捐赠监管的政策存在空白点。从外汇捐赠的用途看，主要以投资为主。应纳入资本项目外汇收支管理范畴。而目前将捐赠外汇列入经常项目外汇收支项下的非贸易类管理。由于捐赠定位归属不清，造成对具有资本性质的外汇捐赠的监管力度不足。使虚假的外汇捐赠有机可乘。     

Almanac of anticipations: The age of affluence—of anticipation—of anxiety—of automation—of discontinuity—of longing—of overkill—of space exploration

With this survey of developments in the futures field since 1945, I.F. Clarke completes his present series for Futures. He makes two major points: that forecasting techniques have become essential tools in the management of change; and that nuclear weapons and ecological problems have added a moral dimension to the study of the future. In the next issue of Futures he will start a new series on the range of future-thinking in the USA, from the expectations of the first settlers to the Star Wars programme.     

基金公司经营融资融券业务的问题审视

融资融券业务正式运营已经开展,为证券市场带来了革命性的改革,作为证券市场的一大主体,基金公司面对融资融券也迎来了新的发展方向和挑战,本文从融资融券业务的运行机制入手,分析了基金公司融资融券的新契机,并对其即将面临的问题进行审视和剖析,进而提出策略建议.     

对基层人民银行科技工作的几点建议

银监会分设后,人民银行将专司货币政策、金融稳定、金融服务三大职能。作为人民银行的分支机构,基层人民银行的工作重心也将从金融监管调整到这三大职能上来。人民银行的科技部门,就要积极运用科技手段,为人民银行履行新的职能发挥“服务、支持、促进、发展”的作用。一、围绕三大职能搭建五大平台经过“六五打基础、七五作准备、八五大发展”几个阶段后,人民银行相继实现了核算电算化、清算网络化和办公信息化。特别是近一两年来,陆续开通了大额支付系统、信贷登记咨询系统、会计四集中系统、金融信息服务网站等系统,人民银行信息化水平又…     

社会主义所有制形式的改革、完善与共产党执政能力的提高

在中国,所有制形式的调整、改革与完善,先进生产力的发展,党的执政能力建设,是社会主义建设过程中密切结合在一起的三个不同层面的发展关系.应在相互促进和共同提高中促进社会的和谐发展,保证社会主义现代化建设战略目标的顺利实现.     

The Usefulness of Measures of Consistency of Discretionary Components of Accruals in the Detection of Earnings Management

Abstract:  Prior research has shown the prevalence of measurement error in models used to estimate aggregate discretionary accruals. In these models, the incremental information content of the various components of accruals is ignored. Limited prior research and data gathered from firms under Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) litigation indicate that managers use either one or more than one component of accruals simultaneously, in a consistent way to manipulate bottom-line earnings in a given direction. I propose two measures that capture the consistency between the discretionary components of accruals and test their significance in earnings management (EM) detection in firms that have artificially added accrual manipulation and firms that were targeted by the SEC for accrual manipulation. There is evidence that this information is incrementally useful in detecting EM. This finding paves the way for improvements in the discretionary accruals measure by including consistency information from the components of aggregate accruals.     

Properties of time-series estimates of degree of leverage measures

Empirical studies suggest that time-series regression estimates of the degrees of operating and financial leverage have a tendency to produce measures less than one. According to ex ante theory, these measures should be greater than one for firms operating above the breakeven point. There have also been suggestions that the biases in these estimates may be attributable to an underlying increase in unit sales. This work presents evidence that these counter-intuitive measures are produced by changes in the firm's operating parameters (unit price, variable cost, fixed cost and interest payments). It further suggests that attempts to control for the underlying change in unit sales substantially increase the volatility of predicted estimates.     

浅议金融机构的举证责任

金融纠纷案件是当事人以存单或进账单、对账单、存款合同、保险单、票据、证券等凭证为主要证据向人民法院提出诉讼的案件,对于不同种类金融纠纷的当事人的举证责任,我国现行的金融法律、法规及司法解释有不同的规定。由于金融机构的特殊法律地位,发生金融纠纷时存在有关当事人将最后偿付风险转移给金融机构承担的主观故意,在客观上会使金融机构难以提供相应的证据来对抗不法债权人的诉讼请求,而导致金融机构败诉。为此,对金融诉讼案件中金融机构的举证责任加以研究具有重要的实践意义。     

Summary of Results of Survey of Seminar Attendees

Abstract

The Society of Actuaries undertook a three-phase research project on mortality improvement in the three NAFTA countries: Canada, Mexico, and the U.S. Phase 1 consisted of a literature review of papers on projecting mortality levels in the future and a study of the trend in mortality improvement during this century. Phase 2 consisted of a discussion of different facets of modeling mortality rates at a seminar attended by 79 experts (actuaries, demographers, economists, and medical researchers) representing different countries. The last session of the seminar consisted of the completion of a survey by the attendees to obtain input for Phase 3, which would analyze the impact of mortality improvement on the social security system of each country. This paper summarizes the results of the survey.

The survey results illustrate the difficulty in forecasting mortality levels, because the effects of many factors that could have significant impact on mortality rates are unknown. This suggests the need for dynamic forecasting, which allows for the possibility of random shocks. A majority of the survey respondents believe that stochastic forecasting models, despite their complexity, have significant potential to add value. Respondents also believe that both historical data and cause-specific mortality forecasts are useful as input and also in validating forecasts of the aggregate levels of mortality. The challenge is to develop more sophisticated forecasting models to produce results that are relatively easy to interpret and to communicate these results to the desired audiences, including the public and policymakers.

The survey results suggest that the aggregate effect of lifestyle changes, medical advances, diseases, catastrophe, and physical environmental changes is an increase in life span. However, there is much uncertainty about the future. Respondents expect that beyond the year 2020 the mean annual rate of reduction in mortality for males age 65 and over will average about 0.58% for Canada, 0.76% for Mexico, and 0.67% for the U.S. The results for the female age 65 and over population are 0.64%, 0.83%, and 0.70%, respectively. The age 65 and over population is expected to see larger percentage reductions in mortality than the 0–14 and 15–64 populations. The reductions in male and female mortality will be ultimately the same, and the mortality levels in the three countries will ultimately converge, although differences may persist for decades.     

Separation of Unit of Account from Medium of Exchange

The separation of a unit of account (UoA) from a medium of exchange (MoE) in the commodity–money system is investigated by considering explicitly a seller's choice of UoA in terms of either an MoE or a unit of metal weight. If the likelihood of debasement of an MoE and its rate are high enough, the price is posted in terms of a unit of metal weight rather than an MoE. Interestingly, this MoE–UoA separated equilibrium yields the flexible nominal price, whereas an MoE–UoA integrated equilibrium yields the sticky one. This implies the nominal price rigidity in the fiat‐money system where MoE and UoA are integrated.     

银行软件项目外包管理分析

一、引言随着国民经济的不断发展,银行业务与外部企业的联系越来越密切。银行正逐步成为现代经济活动的中心,作为数据处理核心的银行业务应用也越来越大型化、越来越复杂化,因此许多银行也把软件项目逐步由原来的自主开发转变为与公司合作的方式,或直接外包开发的方式,银行本身的技术人员也逐步由开发转向项目管理。二、项目外包的分类银行项目的外包有以下几种情况:①部分子系统外包,有时由于银行的软件项目太大,单靠银行自身的开发力量基本无法在预定的时间内完成项目,只好把相对独立的部分外包;②直接购买软件公司的成熟产品,有些金融软…