日元国际化进程中的日本银行业发展及启示

从世界上其他国家的货币国际化历史来看,货币国际化有三种模式：美元模式、欧元模式和曰元模式,其中美元是通过特殊历史时期的全球汇率制度安排得以确定;欧元是通过区域经济一体化和让渡货币主权得以实现;日元是通过汇率自由化,贸易自由化,资本流动自由化,利率和金融市场自由化,使其成为国际经济活动中比较普遍使用的货币。从货币国际化的历史、地理条件和经济背景来看,人民币国际化选择日元模式可能性很大。众所周知,日元国际化政策对日本经济产生极大的影响,并危及到日本银行业。人民币国际化走日元模式,意味着人民币国际化政策与日元国际化政策必然存在相同之处,且中国银行业面对人民币国际化时所处的经济环境与当年日本银行业非常类似,包括：资本项目管制程度较高;经常项目大额顺差;国内储蓄率高;利率管制;企业绝大部分融资通过银行体系实现;银行信贷接受中央银行的窗口指导。日元国际化进程中,日本银行业是如何发展和变化的？对中国商业银行有怎样启示？这些课题的研究对中国商业银行应对人民币国际化具有重要意义。     

完善人民币汇率形成机制的路径选择

目前人民币汇率形成机制存在的问题1.外汇市场结构不合理中国的外汇市场实际上存在着泾渭分明的人民币外汇市场和非人民币外汇市场。在人民币外汇市场上,零售市场和批发市场汇率差别相对较大,实际上存在多重汇率。在零售市场上,进出口企业的外汇供求在单个交易日内惟有一个银行挂牌价格可选择,没有议价能力,单个交易日内外币兑人民币汇率基本不浮动。相反,在银行间的批发市场上,外币兑人民币汇率反而可以小幅波动。这样使得银行为了规避单个交易日内的市场风险,必然将零售市场上的买卖价差定得过高。这就提高了交易成本,降低了汇市的流动性,…     

市场因素对人民币汇率的效应研究——基于境内即期汇率与香港离岸即期以及NDF汇率的分析

香港离岸人民币市场在最近几年得到中国政府的大力支持,它的发展不仅可以提高香港作为国际金融中心的地位,而且可以有效地推动人民币国际化。由于香港离岸人民币市场的建立标志着中国的资本市场将更加开放,因此研究香港离岸人民币汇率变化对市场因素的反映情况就有很现实的意义。根据以往的研究,人民币NDF市场汇率较好地反映了市场因素。因此本文将境内即期人民币汇率与香港离岸人民币汇率对NDF市场汇率进行比较,分析市场因素在人民币境内即期汇率和香港离岸汇率变化中的影响程度。实证分析的结论为:香港离岸人民币汇率更大程度上地反映了市场因素的作用,并且1年期NDF汇率是香港离岸汇率的Granger原因;而境内即期人民币汇率不能很好的反映市场因素的作用,与NDF市场汇率之间没有长期协整关系。     

美联储加息与人民币汇率之间的相关性

美联储加息通常会对全球经济产生较大扰动,引发部分国家尤其是新兴市场国家的资本撤离和汇率大幅贬值。2022年3月,美联储启动加息,标志着美国开启新一轮的货币政策正常化过程。历次美联储加息对人民币汇率是否产生了负面影响;本次美联储加息将会如何影响人民币汇率:在国际形势多变、国内经济承压的局面下,人民币汇率走势如何:本文将从国际收支角度展开分析讨论。     

涉外企业汇率避险现状及路径研究——基于山东省223家涉外样本企业调查

<正>近年来,在人民币汇率市场化改革渐次推进、中美货币政策分化、新兴市场货币动荡加剧等国内外多重因素综合作用下,我国境内外汇市场复杂多变,人民币汇率双向波动显著增强,涉外企业面临汇率风险加大。本文就山东省涉外企业汇率避险情况对全省223家涉外企业进行问卷调查,并对企业运用银行外汇衍生产品情况进行了深入调查分析。调查分析显     

对近期人民币汇率形势的几点认识和判断北大核心

美联储时隔3年再度加息,2000年以来首次50个基点的大幅加息,后续还将伴随缩表等系列紧缩货币政策。这将会影响国际金融市场稳定,收紧全球金融环境,加速新兴市场资本外流与货币贬值。本文认为,美联储紧缩货币政策将从减缓外资流入、市场风险偏好下降、加速外需增长拐点到来、刺激资本回流、增加中国海外资产负债安全风险等五个溢出渠道影响中国经济。近期人民币汇率波动行情是市场纠偏而非政策引导所致。本文进一步研究发现,在较大的贸易顺差、官方与民间外汇储备充足、有力的宏观审慎措施,以及必要的资本外汇管理情况下,中国完全有信心、也有条件保持人民币汇率在合理均衡水平上的基本稳定。鉴于当前外资已持有相当规模人民币金融资产,在稳慎推进人民币国际化的进程中,保持汇率政策的灵活性应是题中之义。     

跨国银行内部资本市场的金融风险传导

本文利用1999～2012年的47家跨国银行分布于五大洲的54个发展中国家或新兴经济体的235家分支机构的数据,验证跨国银行内部资本市场风险传递的作用。研究表明:在经济平稳期,分支机构更依赖母银行的内部资本市场以支持其贷款增长,欧洲地区分支机构的表现尤为明显,而且一定程度上受总部与分支机构是否在同一地域的限制;新设立的或贷存比高的银行更容易依靠母银行的支持而不是根据自身积累的资金来支持贷款增长,同时金融开放程度高或银行业集中度低的环境下,内部资本市场金融风险传导的作用更强。     

提高中资银行市场风险防范能力

由利率、汇率、股票或商品价格变化引致的市场风险,是银行业的主要风险之一。在过去计划经济体制下,利率、汇率和商品价格相对固定,中国的银行业尚未体会到这一风险。今后随着我国利率市场化和人民币汇率形成机制的进一步完善,我国银行业面临的市场风险将会明显增大,特别是开办代客境外理财业务以后,我国银行业将直接面临国际市场上利率、汇率变化等带来的市场风险。如何有效防范市场风险,对我国银行业将是一个巨大的挑战。     

跨境资本流动对银行风险的影响——基于风险累积效应和风险传染效应的视角

从风险累积效应和风险传染效应两个视角揭示跨境资本流动对银行风险的影响机理,并基于2000年第一季度至2020年第四季度时间序列数据进行经验检验,结果表明:跨境资本流动、跨境资本流入、跨境资本流出均显著增加了银行风险,且三者对银行风险的影响均存在显著的风险累积效应;跨境资本流动、跨境资本流入、跨境资本流出均通过影响金融机构人民币各项贷款余额同比增速、金融机构外币各项贷款余额同比增速、金融机构本外币各项贷款余额同比增速以及境内住户中长期消费贷款同比增速等信贷渠道显著提高银行风险承担水平,实现银行风险累积,从而增加银行风险;跨境资本流动、跨境资本流入、跨境资本流出均显著提高了股票价格、房地产价格和实际汇率的波动水平,且跨境资本流动通过股票市场、房地产市场和汇率市场将波动水平传染至银行系统,增加了银行风险,股票市场、房地产市场和汇率市场更是强化了这种传染效应。     

外汇保值避险产品的发展思路研究

为满足国内经济主体规避汇率风险的需要,2005年以来,国家外汇管理局逐步扩大远期结售汇开办银行范围,推出人民币与外币掉期、货币掉期及期权等汇率基础避险产品,银行外汇理财和汇率避险业务得到快速发展。随着人民币汇率形成机制改革的逐步推进,银行外汇理财产品和汇率避险业务规模和品种不断增长,中间业务水平不断提升,对市场和风险的把控能力逐步增强,但市场因素、政策管制、客户持币意愿不强、银行营销管理不完善等制约条件仍然存在。本文结合于天津市银行外汇理财和汇率避险业务发展特点,探索此类业务在新形势下的发展思路。     

Correlation and spillover effects between the US and international banking sectors: New evidence and implications for risk management

This paper quantitatively examines return transmission and volatility spillovers between banking sector stocks in the US and eight other countries by applying our newly extended VAR-DCC-MEGARCH-M model with asymmetric spillovers and Student-t or skew-t errors. Our investigations clarify almost unidirectional stock return transmission from the US banking sector to all other eight international banking sectors. In addition, we also uncover bidirectional volatility spillovers between the US and other eight international banking sector stocks, which are all tied to the leverage effect. Moreover, using the dynamic conditional variances and covariances from our extended model, we derive the time-varying optimal hedge ratios and optimal portfolio weights. These analyses reveal that, except for such extraordinary periods as during financial crises, we can hedge the US banking sector stocks with other international banking sector stocks, and that well-balanced portfolios of the US and other banking sector stocks are optimal. Furthermore, additional analysis using gold, silver, and platinum futures reveals that we can hedge international banking sector stocks with precious metal futures highly effectively, and that well-balanced portfolios of banking stocks and precious metals are optimal. Based on the results from our analyses, this paper derives many significant interpretations and implications for financial and systemic risk management.     

中国银行业系统流动性风险考察与控制——基于资产抛售价格视角

基于银行业在宏观风险来临时出现的流动性不足和系统性风险,通过建立 DSGE-VAR 模型,考量银行业在宏观经济运行框架下的系统流动性风险,结果发现:银行同业借贷、其他证券资产和交易性负债业务的综合作用会使得银行系统流动性风险总体增大,银行如果想要降低存款提取率对其流动性的影响,就要在银行间市场停止拆出资金、出售政府证券及其他流动资产,并出售潜在的流动性较低的资产.从监管层面来讲,应当通过监管的引导效应将交易性负债进行转化,引导同业借贷和其他证券资产业务向平衡区域集中,并在一定范围内减少银行其他证券资产业务的规模.     

利率市场化背景下银行系统性危机的实证研究

从利率市场化的国际经验来看,无论是在发达国家还是发展中国家,其实施过程都容易导致不同程度的银行业危机。采用1973~2012年42个国家的面板数据,对利率市场化背景下的银行业危机进行的实证研究表明：利率市场化的推进将增加银行系统性危机发生的机率,特别是在存款利率市场化阶段,而严格的银行监管是抑制银行系统危机发生的有效方法;显性存款保险制度的设立无助于利率市场化后银行系统性风险的防范,甚至有可能会增加危机发生的机率;资本账户开放下进行利率市场化会增加银行系统危机发生的机率。利率市场化进程中允许开设民营银行不会增加银行系统危机的发生机率。     

Assessing competition in the banking industry: A multi-product approach

This paper investigates the competitive aspects of multi-product banking operations. Extending Panzar and Rosse’s (1987) model to the case of a multi-product banking firm, we show that higher economies of scope in multi-product banking are associated with lower Panzar–Rosse measures of competition in the banking sector. To test this empirical implication and determine the impact of multi-production on market power, we use a new dataset on the Brazilian banking industry. Consistent with our theoretical prediction, we find that banks that offer classic banking products (i.e., loans and credit cards) and other banking products (i.e., brokerage services, insurance and capitalization bonds) have substantially higher market power than banks that offer only classic products. These results suggest a positive bias in the traditional estimates of competition in which multi-output actions are not considered.     

利率市场化程度与银行业集中度关系研究

目前,我国大多数领域的利率已经实现市场化,利率市场化改革将深刻改变商业银行的生存环境,为商业银行的经营和发展带来空前的机遇和挑战.论本文运用最小二乘回归,就利率市场化水平和银行业集中度之间的关系进行线性回归,发现两者之间存在非常高的负相关性.利率市场化加剧了银行业的竞争,为中小银行的崛起提供了空间,转变了银行业的市场结构,使得银行业更加高效的发展.     

What determines output losses after banking crises?

We examine the output costs associated with 150 banking crises using cross country data for years after 1970. Many banking crises do not lead to contractions and most banking crises do not lead to large contractions, a result that holds for developed and developing economies. We examine which variables help to predict output changes after a banking crisis using Bayesian Model Averaging. For developed economies, we find that the output losses are positively related to prior economic conditions such as credit growth. For low-income economies, we find that other factors such as having a stock market and deposit insurance are more important.     

Electronic banking in Finland: Consumer beliefs and reactions to a new delivery channel

The increasing turbulence in the financial service industry sector since the mid-1990s has created a whole new delivery channel for banking: Internet banking. The purpose of this paper is to describe the current state of Internet banking in Finland and to study consumer perceptions, beliefs and reactions to electronic banking in general and Internet banking in particular. The results of this study indicate that bank managers can, by knowing the basic beliefs consumers hold about Internet banking, create more effective customer communication, improve software and target prospects better concerning Internet banking. There is wide agreement that Internet banking will on the one hand have a great impact on the whole bank market, and on the other hand will be considered the most important retail banking delivery channel in the near future. A total of 3,000 questionnaires was prepared and sent to MeritaNordbanken customers in Finland. Using a mailed questionnaire with a response rate of 38.9 per cent, it was found that 40 per cent of the Finnish consumers who responded to this survey were already using Internet banking services. The results of this study provide interesting additions to knowledge of electronic banking and consumer behaviour.     

银行SOA之路有多远——2008中国银行业SOA应用发展论坛侧记

2007年11月,IBM画出了六大行业的SOA(面向服务的架构)落地路线图,并发布SOA技术白皮书,仿佛实施SOA已箭在弦上。同月,普元的SOA中国路线图技术实践全国路演继成都、     

Does interest rate and its volatility affect banking sector development? Empirical evidence from emerging market economies

This study investigates the relationship between interest rate, interest rate volatility, and banking sector development in 12 emerging market economies located around the world. For this purpose, panel data analysis was conducted using annual data from 1980 to 2014. In parallel to the financial development literature, which asserts that banking sector development, as a broad and complex concept, cannot be measured by a single indicator, this study adopts a set of measures of banking sector development. The empirical results reveal that while interest rate has a positive impact on all banking sector indicators, this relationship weakens at higher interest levels, showing a concave relationship between interest rate and banking sector development. In addition, the empirical results provide evidence that interest rate fluctuations have a negative impact on most banking sector development (BSD) indicators, suggesting that the banking sectors of emerging countries are vulnerable to interest rate risks. Furthermore, all measures of the banking sector indicators are positively affected by economic growth rates, while this association weakens at higher levels of income, confirming a nonlinear relationship. Thus, the results have important implications for policymakers in improving the banking system and promoting the economic growth of these emerging economies.     

The impact of banking sector reform in a transition economy: Evidence from Kyrgyzstan

We examine the impact of financial sector reform on interest rate levels and spreads using Kyrgyz bank-level data from 1998 to 2005. We find that, in addition to macroeconomic stabilization, structural reforms to the banking sector significantly contributed to lower interest rates. In particular, our results suggest that foreign bank entry and regulatory efforts to increase average bank size were important in reducing deposit rates. In contrast, we find little evidence that banking sector reform or macroeconomic stabilization has impacted interest rate spreads.