自由贸易港需要什么样的金融服务？——再论FT账户和海南自由贸易港的账户选择问题

2025年海南全岛封关运作、实现“一线放开、二线管住、岛内自由”后,海南自由贸易港市场主体及其商品、劳务和金融资产都将具有离岸法律属性,遵守以《自由港法》为核心的离岸法律法规,既有的内地在岸银行账户体系,以及FT账户体系都将无法满足为海南市场主体及其离岸经济活动提供金融服务和基础设施支持的要求,有必要尽快着手建立适应海南自由港经济金融活动需求的,独立于内地既有银行账户体系,包含海南自由港货币当局、商业银行和其他相关金融机构在内,设计清晰、系统简洁、功能完备的海南离岸银行账户体系。同时,在账户规则、监督管理、金融市场建设、中央银行货币发行和其他微宏观审慎管理,以及配套基础设施上抓紧研究方案,尽早着手设计、建设和模拟运行,以期在中央宣布海南全岛封关运作后,能及时投入运行,为全岛封关运作后的海南经济活动提供相应的金融服务和基础设施支持。基于相关规划和设想,本文做学术和学理探讨。     

自由贸易港需要什么样的金融服务？——再论FT账户和海南自由贸易港的账户选择问题

2025年海南全岛封关运作、实现“一线放开、二线管住、岛内自由”后,海南自由贸易港市场主体及其商品、劳务和金融资产都将具有离岸法律属性,遵守以《自由港法》为核心的离岸法律法规,既有的内地在岸银行账户体系,以及FT账户体系都将无法满足为海南市场主体及其离岸经济活动提供金融服务和基础设施支持的要求,有必要尽快着手建立适应海南自由港经济金融活动需求的,独立于内地既有银行账户体系,包含海南自由港货币当局、商业银行和其他相关金融机构在内,设计清晰、系统简洁、功能完备的海南离岸银行账户体系。同时,在账户规则、监督管理、金融市场建设、中央银行货币发行和其他微宏观审慎管理,以及配套基础设施上抓紧研究方案,尽早着手设计、建设和模拟运行,以期在中央宣布海南全岛封关运作后,能及时投入运行,为全岛封关运作后的海南经济活动提供相应的金融服务和基础设施支持。基于相关规划和设想,本文做学术和学理探讨。     

Revealing global hot spots of technological disasters: 1900–2013

Technological disasters can happen in any country in the world and cause human fatalities, injuries, and economic damages, among other physical and social consequences. As the world adopts more technologies, becomes further industrialized, continues faster urbanization, and has larger and more concentrated population, the occurrences and impacts of technological disasters are likely to be more frequent and severe and call for more scholarly research. However, there is a lack of good models for reliable technological risk analysis, which is the foundation for effective preparation for, sound mitigation of, and quick recovery from technological disasters. This research develops an expected risk analysis model, including a base sub-model and a location quotient sub-model, for nearly 200 countries of the world, using the technological disasters recorded in the EM-DAT database for the period 1900–2013. The sub-models are based on country-level risk impacts in terms of expected fatalities, injuries, people affected, and economic losses, their standard deviations, ranges, and corresponding country percentages and ranks. The sub-models are validated using correlations and scatter plots for the observed and expected risk impacts. The results show that the sub-models perform well by yielding consistent expected risks and related measures, indicating that the expected risk analysis model is a reasonably good alternative to existing risk analysis models.     

我国政府绩效审计人员的能力框架研究

根据能力要素法,我国政府绩效审计人员能力框架的构成要素包括专业知识、专业技能和专业品质,其中公共政策与法规知识、绩效评估与报告知识、会计财务与审计知识、公共管理与行政知识、预算理论与实务知识以及信息技术与计量知识属于政府绩效审计人员的核心专业知识;逻辑思维能力、决策分析能力、团队合作能力、表达沟通能力以及技术运用能力属于政府绩效审计人员的核心专业技能;独立公正、廉洁奉公、合格胜任、勤勉负责,以及职业谨慎属于政府绩效审计人员的核心专业品质。     

Policy metaphors: From the tuberculosis crusade to the obesity apocalypse

In this paper we examine the conceptual and political work that metaphors do, with particular regard to how they construct problems and thus in turn limit the range of solutions.¹ Common metaphors in the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom and Australia are examined (war, disease and crime metaphors, and the economy and nation as a body) by analysing historical and modern texts about the policy issues of tuberculosis, immigration, asylum seeking, welfare, obesity and food insecurity. Through this we show that metaphors, in conjunction with discourses, may work to: naturalise and privilege certain constructions of problems; attribute blame and responsibility; support claims about the urgency and extent of required intervention (and who should deliver it, to whom and how); influence the identification and consideration of solutions by constructing the problem in particular ways; intentionally or unintentionally result in stigmatisation and non-trivial discrimination (social and workplace); and erase or highlight the role of actors, processes, social relations and systems. Vallis has developed the analysis, the bulk of the paper, and Inayatullah has articulated the theoretical links to causal layered analaysis (CLA). While there are multiple ways to use CLA, in this paper we use CLA to map a number of issues accross perspectives and frames, and to deconstruct creating the possibility for alternative futures. We do not explore alternative or preferred futures.     

Merging art and design in foresight: Making sense of Emerge

Emerge: Artists and Scientists Redesign the Future, hosted by Arizona State University in 2012, united artists, engineers, bioscientists, social scientists, storytellers and designers to build, draw, write and play with the future. Over three days, and in nine different workshops, participants created games, products, monuments, images and stories in an effort to reveal the texture and feel of emergent futures. The Emerge workshops drew from a burgeoning field of future-oriented methods that infuse art, design and information technology into the development and delivery of scenarios and design fictions – a constellation of practices I call “mediated scenarios”. This introduction and the articles in this special issue, work to make sense of these emerging practices, and of Emerge itself, in order to develop appreciation of this rising genre. In doing so, the papers in this issue ask critical questions about the nature of these novel forms of foresight practice and investigate the trade-offs and potencies involved in the workings of mediated scenarios.     

THE COMBINED EFFECT OF DONATION PRICE AND ADMINISTRATIVE INEFFICIENCY ON DONATIONS TO US NONPROFIT ORGANIZATIONS

We examine the effects that two accounting measures of nonprofit organization (NPO) inefficiency, administrative inefficiency and donation price, have on donations to US NPOs using a better-specified model and industry-specific samples. Although numerous studies examine the effect that donation price has on donations (e.g., Marudas and Jacobs, 2006 ; Marudas, 2004 ; Khanna and Sandler, 2000 ; and Tinkelman, 1999 ), only three studies examine the effect of administrative inefficiency on donations ( Tinkelman and Mankaney, 2007 ; Frumkin and Kim, 2001 ; and Greenlee and Brown, 1999 ). However, none of these studies tests donation price and administrative inefficiency in one model and only two test industry-specific samples of NPOs. We find that misspecifying the model by including only one of these two inefficiency measures creates substantial bias and the effect of administrative inefficiency on donations varies substantially across industries. Administrative inefficiency has a significantly negative effect on donations to NPOs in the full sample and the philanthropy sample, but no significant effect on donations to NPOs in the arts, education, health, or human services samples. Furthermore, donation price has a significantly negative effect on donations to NPOs in the full sample and the education, health and human services samples, but not in the arts or philanthropy samples. Results are also reported for the other variables in the model – government support, program service revenue, fundraising and organizational age, wealth and size.     

Collective Bargaining and Cost Accounting: The Case of the US Men's Clothing Industry

The attributes and rationales of modern cost accounting procedures are not unequivocal. Some scholars underscore the adversarial relationship between accounting and labour (Bougen, 1989; Owen and Lloyd, 1985; Ogden and Bougen, 1985) while others contend that accounting data were used as much for social, political and ideological purposes as for efficiency concerns (Hopper and Armstrong, 1991; Ezzamel et al., 1990; Hoskin and Macve, 1988a and 1988b; Stewart, 1992). Alternatively, several researchers have re-examined the origins of cost accounting and more recent costing developments (Fleischman and Parker, 1991; Fleischman and Tyson, 1993; and Tyson, 1990 and 1992). The present paper further explores the development of modern cost accounting practice. It presents a detailed analysis of the US men's clothing industry between 1919 and 1926 and assesses over 1,200 arbitration decisions to determine how piece rates, production standards and standard costs were developed, implemented and carried out in practice. It finds that collective bargaining and compulsory arbitration significantly moderated these procedures such that workers and owner/managers received tangible economic benefits.     

The impact of the new OHADA accounting system on the judgments and decisions of Cameroonian bankers

Cameroon and 15 other African States belonging to the Organization for the Harmonization of Business Law in Africa (OHADA) adopted the Uniform Act Organizing and Harmonizing Undertakings' Accounting Systems on March 23, 2000, which scuttled the OCAM accounting plan in favor of the new OHADA accounting system (SYSCOHADA). Companies were required to adopt SYSCOHADA for company accounts and consolidated accounts beginning on January 1, 2001, and January 1, 2002, respectively. The goal of this study is to compare the impact of the presentation format and informational content of both accounting systems on the judgments and decisions of bankers, and, more specifically, to find out whether the information contributed by SYSCOHADA has changed the judgments and decisions bankers made under the old OCAM accounting plan. To that effect, a field experiment was conducted with Cameroonian bankers using a within-subjects design. Significant differences were noted in bankers' underlying judgments (operating income, net income, cash flow, leverage, liquidity, and ability to raise capital) as well as in their initial judgments about profitability and financial structure. Conversely, no significant differences were noted with respect to other judgments and decisions, i.e. principal judgments about the overall risk rating and overall risk trend, the loan decision, and the interest rate to charge (risk premium). Further, the new statement of sources and applications of funds (SSAF) influenced their underlying judgments about operating income, leverage, liquidity, and ability to raise capital, as well as their initial judgments about financial structure.     

Collaboration rules

Corporate leaders seeking to boost growth, learning, and innovation may find the answer in a surprising place: the Linux open-source software community. Linux is developed by an essentially volunteer, self-organizing community of thousands of programmers. Most leaders would sell their grandmothers for workforces that collaborate as efficiently, frictionlessly, and creatively as the self-styled Linux hackers. But Linux is software, and software is hardly a model for mainstream business. The authors have, nonetheless, found surprising parallels between the anarchistic, caffeinated, hirsute world of Linux hackers and the disciplined, tea-sipping, clean-cut world of Toyota engineering. Specifically, Toyota and Linux operate by rules that blend the self-organizing advantages of markets with the low transaction costs of hierarchies. In place of markets' cash and contracts and hierarchies' authority are rules about how individuals and groups work together (with rigorous discipline); how they communicate (widely and with granularity); and how leaders guide them toward a common goal (through example). Those rules, augmented by simple communication technologies and a lack of legal barriers to sharing information, create rich common knowledge, the ability to organize teams modularly, extraordinary motivation, and high levels of trust, which radically lowers transaction costs. Low transaction costs, in turn, make it profitable for organizations to perform more and smaller transactions--and so increase the pace and flexibility typical of high-performance organizations. Once the system achieves critical mass, it feeds on itself. The larger the system, the more broadly shared the knowledge, language, and work style. The greater individuals' reputational capital, the louder the applause and the stronger the motivation. The success of Linux is evidence of the power of that virtuous circle. Toyota's success is evidence that it is also powerful in conventional companies.     

Administrative theory and administrative systems: A synthesis among diverging fields of inquiry

Taking what is termed an “administrative systems perspective”, this paper describes the interrelationships which exist among 5 fields of inquiry, traditionally treated separately in the literature on administration and management: organizational design, organizational strategy, organizational values, motivation and management control. Several areas of interaction are discussed: (1) among strategy formulation, motivation, and organizational design, (2) among organizational values, motivation, and the management control process, (3) between management control and organizational design, and (4) between management control and strategy.     

Early evidence of digital labor in accounting: Innovation with Robotic Process Automation

Robotic Process Automation (RPA) is an emerging technology that enables the automation of rules-based business processes and tasks through the use of software bots. Drawing upon the theory of Task-Technology Fit (TTF) and Technology-to-Performance Chain (TPC) (Goodhue and Thompson 1995) and research on expert systems (Messier and Hansen 1987; Sutton 1990), this study explores emerging themes surrounding bot implementation for accounting and finance tasks. We collect and analyze interview data from adopters of RPA and document task suitability, task-technology fit, implementation issues, and resulting performance outcomes. We find that securing technical capability is only a part of RPA implementation process. Organizations engage in standardization and optimization of processes, develop scorecard-like tools to rank tasks, adjust governance structures to include digital employees, and redefine internal controls. Organizations benefit from automating only certain processes, those that are structured, repeated, rules-based, and with digital inputs. Along with cost savings, organizations experience improved process documentation, lower error rates, more accurate measurement of process performance, and better report quality.     

An Assessment of the Currency Board Regime in Bosnia and Herzegovina

This paper describes currency board regime operations in Bosnia and Herzegovina and assesses their performance and sustainability in the context of the economic, political, and institutional environment. To the best of our knowledge, our study seems to be unique in this respect. Based on our analysis, we judge that Bosnia and Herzegovina's currency board regime is well suited and appropriate, given the country's history, its current state, and its future goals. Nevertheless, we believe that the key to the currency board's sustainability, and an eventual accession to the European Union, is a stronger legal and regulatory infrastructure and a more unified political system.     

Quantile connectedness between energy,metal, and carbon markets

This study employs a quantile connectedness approach to examine the dynamic linkages and tail risk connectedness between energy, metal, and carbon markets. Results show that the connectedness between energy, metal, and carbon markets is about 51% at the mean or median and 87% under extreme conditions. This means that the spillover effects of the two tails are much stronger than those under the conditional mean and normal markets, and the spillover effect between markets is heterogeneous under different market conditions. The connectedness between energy, metal, and carbon markets is time-varying, and the volatility is relatively small under extreme positive and negative conditions. Notably, the dynamic connectedness of energy, metal, and carbon markets is different in extreme upward and downward markets, which reflects the asymmetry and tail dependence of spillover effects between markets and indicates that spillover effects are different between the periods of upward and downward markets. In addition, the results of portfolio strategy show that holding short positions in the carbon market is an effective investment choice.     

Hunting humans: A future for tourism in 2200

This paper offers a future scenario to expose the potential engagement of tourism in the year 2200. Taking a socio-constructionist approach to research and through the analysis of secondary data, it explores current issues and debates concerned with the environment, disasters and depletion of natural resources; social context including movies and entertainment, the media and technology, the evolution of the theme park and cultural transmission; and economical realities, covering poverty vs. world elite and global culture, all of which are seen as drivers of the potential future tourism market. In so doing, it presents a narrative (scenario), provoking the notion that in the year 2200 death and hunting humans will form part of the tourism entertainment industry and a practice carried out by the wealthy-elite, a view backed with substance. It argues, that as a result of past and current engagements with murder, death and human atrocities, and significantly our relationship with death, humans will gradually become more accustomed to death as a form of spectacle, influenced by current entertainment, movies and the media. Death as entertainment by form of detachment (emotionally and physically) will further influence the future fun aspect of hunting humans. Significantly, changes in our natural environment will lead to great challenges, lack of water, depleted food resources and greater disparity between the wealthy and impoverished; all of which will drive the change in our humanly existence. This papers aims to provide a provocative account of the ‘potential future meaning of tourism’, through the application of current knowledge, and significantly, it is our relationship with death and violence that are central, death and violence are becoming diluted and thus, will be a source of future entertainment and a tourism activity – in less humans can reach a level of transcendence that has never been present, to transcend the culture they have created, one that has always witnessed violence as a means to survival. If violence can be detached then we will be presented with a ‘wild card’, a future that is truly out of this world.     

我国创业金融体系构建及其运行机制研究

本文指出了我国创业金融体系的重要作用,并基于不同的创业阶段,构建了一个涵盖政府、创业企业、创业者及其亲友、天使投资者、风险投资机构、银行及其他金融机构和中介组织的一个相互影响、相互作用的创业金融体系,并探讨了该创业金融体系的信用机制、动力机制和创新机制。     

Creativity, skepticism, and visioning the future

Members of the World Futures Studies Federation share not only the usual professional goals of advancing and developing their field, but also an extraordinary commitment to envisioning and creating a future world of increasing human freedom and well-being. Both aims, obviously, would be moved forward if futurists could establish more futures studies courses, departments, and research centers than now exist at colleges and universities. To do so requires vigor, creativity, and élan, which futurists seem to have in abundance, but it also demands more logical and empirical rigor, skepticism, and critical capacity in futures work.     

What effective general managers really do.

A rather large gap exists between the conventional wisdom on management functions, tools, and systems on the one hand and actual managerial behavior on the other. The former is usually discussed in terms of planning, controlling, staffing, organizing, and directing; the latter is characterized by long hours, fragmented episodes, and oral communication. Actual behavior, as a study of successful general managers shows, looks less systematic, more informal, less reflective, more reactive, less well organized, and more frivolous than a student of strategic planning systems, MIS, or organizational design would ever expect. The gap is important and disturbing for many reasons. First of all, it raises serious questions about the kind of formal planning, performance appraisal, and other systems that are commonly in use today. In a similar way, it raises questions about management education, which usually relies heavily on management "theory" and which is currently producing more than 60,000 new MBAs each year. Furthermore, the gap makes it difficult for executives to coach younger managers and makes it hard for them to know how they might improve their own effectiveness.     

Schöne Aussicht auf den Fluss? Wahrnehmung von Risiken aus Naturkatastrophen

Impacts of natural disasters have increased worldwide during the last decades. Facing the growing losses from natural hazards also in Germany, the question emerges how persons in likely affected areas perceive risks from natural hazards such as windstorm, flood, and earthquake. The everyday, ?intuitive“ perception of risks is basic for the individual, subjective assessment of natural risks. Consequently, perception and evaluation of risk is basic for behaviour in dangerous situations. It is also fundamental for decisions concerning preventive protective measurements. To be able to develop effective information and communication strategies and politics about natural risks, the perception and evaluation of these risks and influencing factors should be known. Therefore, the purpose of the study presented in this paper is to focus on the perception of storms, floods, and earthquakes and to study factors that influence risk perception. To study risk perception, a mail survey was conducted in summer 2001 in six regions of Germany which had been affected by windstorm, flood and / or earthquake within the last 30 years. Köln-Rodenkirchen, Passau, Karlsruhe, Neustadt/Donau, Albstadt and Rosenheim were selected as survey areas. In total, 450 persons responded the questionnaire. In the study a mixture of approaches to risk perception was applied, among them the psychometric paradigm. The project was conducted at the Institute for Insurance, Universität Karlsruhe (TH) and additionally funded by the Stiftung Umwelt und Schadenvorsorge der SV Versicherungen. The results show that storm, flood, and earthquake are rated heteroge-neously regarding their general dangerousness, several risk characteristics and attributions of causes. Personal characteristics, such as age, education level, and the experience of damage seem to play a role for the general risk rating. In addition, the risk perception of homeowners and tenants differs.     

Consumer reactions to unfamiliar technologies: mental and social formation of perceptions and attitudes toward nano and GM products

Abstract

Using focus groups, the research analyses the mental and social processes through which consumers form perceptions and opinions about unfamiliar technologies and the derived products, taking the perception of nanotechnology and nano-products, GM and GM products as example. Our findings suggest that limited understanding of the technological principles and lack of (visible) products prevent the formation of experience-based attitudes and behavioral intentions. In this context, consumers interpret and assess cognitive interventions such as product labels or product information, as well as the trustworthiness of unfamiliar information sources, based on heuristic clues, association, mutual reassurance and previous attitudes. The established determinants of technology risk perception (e.g. knowledge, social norms, perceived risks and benefits and controllability) were the subject of constant deliberation and negotiation among participants. Consequently, the perception of risk and technology communication interventions might vary greatly across different locations and segments of the public, complicating risk communication and trust-building.