贷款证券化、监管资本套利与资本监管改进

巴塞尔协议的资本充足率指标可以反映银行部门吸收风险损失的能力,但是无法监测和控制银行体系外的贷款总额和累积的信用风险。20世纪70年代的贷款证券化创新导致银行进行监管资本套利,并使得资本充足率监管趋于失效。本文基于贷款证券化下银行贷款余额与社会贷款余额的差异,分析银行监管资本套利的微观机制并提出改进资本监管的建议。     

1980—1994年间美国银行危机及其启示

1980-1994年间,美国经历了一次大的银行危机,大批银行在危机中倒闭。总体来看,宏观经济、区域经济和行业经济衰退,监管机构放松监管,银行业自身经营管理的不规范是引发这次银行危机的主因。虽然危机已经过去,但这次银行危机中暴露的问题对我国银行业的发展仍具有启示意义。     

提高银行资本充足率：减税还是注资？

激励相容银行监管的目的是，一方面实现宏观经济稳定，保证银行业的安全稳健运行，另一方面使银行业实现较好的盈利性。政府注资国有银行是为了充实银行资本金，提高银行业的经营稳健性。但注资具有低激励相容度，这在宏、微观两方面表现出来。微观方面可以通过净资产收益率与资本充足率的关系考察注资的激励相容程度，宏观方面则可以从不良贷款货币化效应来考察。与此同时，税收通过银行内源资本影响银行资本充足率，而目前我国银行业税负偏重。解决这个悖论的有效方法是要逐步降低银行业的税负，加大银行税返还，提高其盈利能力，通过自身的积累，增强内源补充资本能力，切实提高资本充足率。     

国外发达国家影子银行监管措施对我国的启示

本文主要通过对国内外对影子银行概念、规模等的介绍,提出“中国式”影子银行的概念、内容、规模,并重点总结对确保不发生系统性风险的金融稳定底线的影响;介绍国外发达国家影子银行的监管措施,得出国外发达国家的监管措施对我国的启示,对我国影子银行的监管提供一些参考。     

基于超越对数函数的商业银行成本、利润效率实证研究

通过随机前沿模型(SFA)和超越对数函数,本文建立了计算商业银行成本、利润效率的随机前沿模型。基于1994-2010年间我国14家商业银行相应数据的计算结果我们发现:1994-2010年间商业银行成本、利润效率经历了明显的改进趋势,且国有控股大型商业银行的成本、利润效率要显著低于股份制商业银行。无效率函数的分解结果中,资本充足率的提高和不良贷款率的降低将会对商业银行的成本、利润效率产生明显的积极影响,而外资持股比例的增加也会显著地提升商业银行的成本、利润效率。最后,本文得出了相应的结论和政策建议。     

On the information role of stock recommendation revisions

We examine the information transmission role of stock recommendation revisions by sell-side security analysts. Revisions are associated with economically insignificant mean price reactions and often piggyback on recent news, events, long-term momentum, and short-run contrarian return predictors, typically downgrading after bad news and upgrading after good news. However, the revisions are usually information-free for investors. The findings go against the long-standing view that recommendations are an important means by which analysts assimilate information into stock prices. They disagree with the view of policymakers that analysts’ stock picks materially impact stock prices.     

提高银行资本充足率:减税还是注资?

激励相容银行监管的目的是,一方面实现宏观经济稳定,保证银行业的安全稳健运行,另一方面使银行业实现较好的盈利性.政府注资国有银行是为了充实银行资本金,提高银行业的经营稳健性.但注资具有低激励相容度,这在宏、微观两方面表现出来.微观方面可以通过净资产收益率与资本充足率的关系考察注资的激励相容程度,宏观方面则可以从不良贷款货币化效应来考察.与此同时,税收通过银行内源资本影响银行资本充足率,而目前我国银行业税负偏重.解决这个悖论的有效方法是要逐步降低银行业的税负,加大银行税返还,提高其盈利能力,通过自身的积累,增强内源补充资本能力,切实提高资本充足率.     

资本充足要求下货币政策与银行监管的联系

本文借鉴Kopecky-VanHoose有关资本约束对银行信贷影响的模型,将银行资本内生化,通过分析银行在资本充足率管理的约束条件下经营目标最优化情形,阐释了银行监管与货币政策的联系。文章最后针对我国银行业发展现状,分析资本充足要求下的银行监管和货币政策的联系对我国货币政策和银行监管政策制定的启示及对银行业管理的意义,并提出协调两者目标一致性的政策建议。     

Limited arbitrage between equity and credit markets

We document that short-horizon pricing discrepancies across firms' equity and credit markets are common and that an economically significant proportion of these are anomalous, indicating a lack of integration between the two markets. Proposing a statistical measure of market integration, we investigate whether equity–credit market integration is related to impediments to arbitrage. We find that time variation in integration across a firm's equity and credit markets is related to firm-specific impediments to arbitrage such as liquidity in equity and credit markets and idiosyncratic risk. Our evidence provides a potential resolution to the puzzle of why Merton model hedge ratios match empirically observed stock-bond elasticities (Schaefer and Strebulaev, 2008) and yet the model is limited in its ability to explain the integration between equity and credit markets (Collin-Dufresne, Goldstein, and Martin, 2001).     

Capital Regulation with Two Banking Sectors: Cyclicality and Implementation

We present a capital regulation policy in a model in which banks can choose to be unregulated, by operating in the shadow banking sector, when the cost of being regulated (restriction on portfolio risk) exceeds the benefit (cheaper funding/insurance). We show that the welfare maximizing capital requirement policy can be procyclical: lower requirement during booms and higher requirement during recessions. Our policy specifies the level of capital requirement as a function of the observed relative size of the unregulated and regulated banking sectors. This specification achieves the optimal aggregate risk exposure by obtaining the right mix of the two sectors.     

企业部门杠杆率结构性特征研究——基于影子银行视角

本文从高风险企业作为影子银行资金需求者的角度,通过理论推导和实证检验,发现在加息条件下,高风险企业杠杆率攀升幅度是低风险企业的4倍且持续时间更长。这不仅与高风险企业利润下滑幅度大且持续时间长有关,还与高风险企业贷款规模出现短暂"超调"有关,反映出高风险企业融资链条上商业银行、影子银行和企业三方博弈的现象。由此,本文建议加速降低"坏杠杆",减缓降低"好杠杆",同时发挥影子银行的股权融资功能,以避免企业过度缩表和经济的下滑。     

Monitoring the “invisible” hand of market discipline: Capital adequacy revisited

The recent U.S. financial crisis and governmental bailout of financial institutions have intensified the debate on the need for effectively measuring and monitoring the financial institutions’ risks. This paper contributes to this discussion by introducing a market-based capital measurement that better captures the dynamics of bank risk and returns. Evidence confirms that these market-based capital adequacy metrics are much more sensitive to risk factors and more responsive to economic events than the traditional accounting/regulatory report based capital models, which often underestimate the true capital needs. The CDS premia, another market-bases solvency measure, seems to overreact to declines in capital adequacy.     

国际影子银行体系的风险监管改革与启示

影子银行体系的超常规发展和信用扩张,是全球金融危机爆发的重要原因之一。本文从影子银行体系的内涵、运作机制展开研究,分析危机后西方主要国家有关的金融监管改革举措,并结合中国影子银行体系的现状提出有关建议。     

Computing present values: Capital budgeting done correctly

This paper shows that the standard textbook formula for computing the present value of a future random cash flow – the discounted expected value – is formally incorrect and can generate significant errors when used to compute present values. The correct present value method is provided as well as a simple adjustment to the textbook formula which can be used to obtain an approximation to the correct value.     

影子银行的特征、影响及其监管

近年来随着金融创新步伐的加快,我国影子银行的数量和规模呈现出快速上升态势,其信用扩张和超常规发展影响了我国的金融安全,干扰了央行货币政策的执行效果,需要出台相应的措施加强对影子银行的监管。     

中国积极抑制影子银行风险的实践

文章分析了2009年以来中国影子银行业规模迅速扩张的原因,分析了中国政府的相关应对措施,并提出需建立全面清晰的金融改革框架以应对影子银行相关的多重挑战,包括识别并重组困难影子银行,进一步放松对正规银行业的规制,协调运用政策工具应对风险等。