影响股票收益的基本面因子略探——基于中小板上市公司的实证分析

选取公司规模、股价、股东人数变动、换手率、每股盈余、净资产收益率、毛利率、市盈率相对盈利增长比率及市净率等基本面因子作为影响股票收益的自变量,利用中小板上市公司2010年7月—2016年7月的季度数据进行了实证分析。结果表明:规模、股价、股东人数变动、换手率及毛利率五个指标对股票收益有显著影响;单从系数上看,规模的影响最大,其次分别依次是毛利率、换手率、价格、股东人数变动。采用简单赋值的方法,对这5个指标进行赋值,并选出得分靠前的股票进行等额投资,可以获得不错的收益;其中最优组合的阈值为N=16,该组合自2010年来获得了36.34%的年化收益率及2.6%的回撤深度。     

外资机构持股与股票收益波动性--基于沪深两市的实证研究

本文研究了外资机构持股对中国上市公司股票收益波动的影响。选取2003年到2008年间沪深两市上市公司的样本进行实证检验,结果显示外国机构的持股提高企业股票收益波动,即使在控制了一个完整的所有制结构、企业规模、换手率,并解决内生性问题后,这一结果仍然如此。此外,实证结果同样显示内资持股（个人,机构和政府）和公司的股票收益波动之间存在正相关关系。     

外资机构持股与股票收益波动性——基于沪深两市的实证研究

本文研究了外资机构持股对中国上市公司股票收益波动的影响。选取2003年到2008年间沪深两市上市公司的样本进行实证检验,结果显示外国机构的持股提高企业股票收益波动,即使在控制了一个完整的所有制结构、企业规模、换手率,并解决内生性问题后,这一结果仍然如此。此外,实证结果同样显示内资持股(个人,机构和政府)和公司的股票收益波动之间存在正相关关系。     

中国股市流动性与股票收益的关系——基于面板数据和时间序列的实证分析

以上海股票市场为研究对象,选取非流动性比率和换手率作为流动性衡量指标,对流动性和股票收益率实证分析。从面板数据的结果来说,中国股票市场上有流动性溢价现象存在,时间序列结果说明,预期和未预期市场流动性对市场超额收益都存在正面影响。     

中国股票市场流动性溢价实证研究——基于1988至2011年个股面板数据的分析

本文以个股为切入点,将换手率和Amihud流动性比率作为流动性因子代表指标,建立基于面板数据的个体固定效应变截距回归模型,对我国A股股票市场流动性溢价存在性进行理论剖析和实证检验.实证结果表明,股票预期收益与个股换手率呈反向相关关系,与个股Amihud流动性比率呈正向相关关系.同时,分别从我国股市这两种流动性指标出发得出完全一致的结论,即我国股市存在显著的流动性溢价,流动性证实是股票预期收益的关键影响因素之一     

我国中小企业融资与我国批准创业板股票上市理论研究

我国批准创业板股票上市对解决我国中小企业融资难的问题有深远的战略意义。本文以融资结构理论为主线，围绕中小企业融资问题，从中小企业融资面临的内外部融资环境展开研究，重视对中小企业融资的结构细分，同时在分析如何构建中小企业融资支持体系时，始终以中小企业的内生性特征作为分析前提。重点研究了主要国家和地区关于中小企业界定的标准、中小企业融资的区域性差别、中小企业组织形式与融资模式的选择、中小企业融资与资本市场层级结构、中小企业融资与银行及信用担保体建设等问题。     

企业数字化转型与资本市场定价效率——来自股票定价偏误的经验证据

基于中国沪深A股上市公司2013～2020年数据，实证检验了企业数字化转型对股票定价偏误的影响及其机理。研究发现：企业数字化转型显著降低了股票定价偏误程度；机制分析表明，企业数字化转型程度的提高，主要是通过外部治理机制发挥信息效应和内部治理机制弱化企业代理问题来降低股票定价偏误程度；异质性分析表明，企业数字化转型效力的发挥在非国有企业以及地区信息化水平较高的企业中更为明显。研究及结论为上市公司提高资本市场定价效率提供了经验证据。     

开放式基金业绩的实证研究

本文应用风险调整收益法、市场时机选择判断模型，以及借鉴于晨星评级体系的中所采用的相对收益和相对风险指标，对我国股票型开放式基金业绩进行了实证研究与评价。     

我国开放式股票型基金窗饰效应研究

以开放式股票型基金为研究对象实证研究我国基金市场的窗饰效应。首先,初步考察基金对股票的买卖倾向,发现基金在报告期末更加倾向于买进盈利股票,而卖出亏损股票的行为则不明显。之后构建一个＂买入-持有＂投资策略,比较该策略收益与基金实际收益,发现前者能够获得2.38%的平均超额收益,证明基金在报表中公布的投资组合与其平时表现存在显著差异,剔除其他一些可能导致基金投资组合调整的因素后,证明我国开放式股票型基金存在显著的窗饰效应,且成长型基金以及之前业绩较差、股票投资换手率较高的基金更可能出现窗饰效应。     

通货膨胀如何影响股票回报——基于债务融资的视角

大部分研究发现实际通货膨胀率与股票回报呈现出负相关关系,但对于两者为何呈现这样的关系并未提供相关的实证证据。我们认为其主要原因在于缺乏通货膨胀到股票回报之间中间渠道的认识与分析。因此,本文依据我国通货膨胀指标,基于通货膨胀影响企业债务融资行为的研究视角,实证检验发现,当通货膨胀率上升时,企业会增加债务融资,而债务融资比例的上升进一步提升了企业风险,并且通货膨胀与股票回报的负相关关系主要通过债务融资渠道进行传导;上述现象在国有企业以及融资约束较弱的企业表现得更为明显。本文的研究为通货膨胀与股票回报之间的负相关关系提供了微观层面的解释视角。     

市场时机对我国上市公司并购融资行为的影响

全流通格局开启了我国上市公司并购融资多元化的时代。在国内研究中,鲜有基于股权分置改革来研究市场时机对我国上市公司并购融资行为的影响。因此,本文以外部融资加权平均市账比作为市场时机的代理变量,通过建立Tobit模型进行实证检验与分析,发现在股票市场全流通的背景下,市场时机对上市公司并购融资行为具有显著的影响,但这种影响持续性很短,大约为3年。同时检验结果表明,市场时机、盈利能力对公司债务杠杆的影响在长期内会发生逆转。     

Equity market timing and capital structure: International evidence

We investigate the equity market timing hypothesis of capital structure in major industrialized (G-7) countries. As claimed by its proponents, we find that leverage of firms is negatively related to the historical market-to-book ratio in all G-7 countries. However, this negative relationship cannot be attributed to equity market timing. We find no association between equity issues and market-to-book ratios at the time of equity financing decisions by Japanese firms. Firms in all G-7 countries, except Japan, undo the effect of equity issuance and the impact of equity market timing attempts on leverage is short lived. This is inconsistent with the prediction of the equity market timing hypothesis and more in line with dynamic trade-off model.     

Risk changes and external financing activities: Tests of the dynamic trade-off theory of capital structure

We provide new insight into the relevance of the dynamic trade-off theory of capital structure by examining firms’ external financing activities following risk changes. Consistent with the prediction of the dynamic trade-off theory but inconsistent with the pecking order theory, we find that firms issue equity following risk increases and debt after risk decreases, even when we narrowly focus on financially unconstrained firms. However, the results do not hold for firms with high market-to-book assets ratios, indicating that in this case, external financing activities are better captured by other factors than those explicitly considered in the trade-off theory, such as market timing. Our results are robust to a variety of risk measures including stock return volatility, default probability, implied asset volatility, and adjusted Ohlson (1980) scores.     

How much equity capital did the Tokyo Stock Exchange really raise?

Even though the channelling of equity capital from savers to listed firms is one of the primary functions of a stock market, not much effort has been devoted to the problem of measuring the phenomenon. External equity financing, traditionally associated with the issue of new shares, depends also on the sale of already issued shares. This additional form of collection of equity capital becomes relevant when the firms of the market are connected by cross-shareholdings (as in Japan): the phenomenon of equity carve-out is a relevant example of equity financing obtained through the sale of existing shares. The paper presents a model for computing the equity capital raised by companies listed in a given stock exchange over a specified period of time, which is non trivial when firms are connected by cross-shareholdings. A numerical computation of the net amount of equity financing in the Tokyo Stock Exchange in the period 1971–1992 is reported: it shows that the net (or true) measure is significantly different and, in most cases, lower than the conventional one.     

电力行业上市公司的财务杠杆效应分析——基于2006-2009年的经验数据

我国上市公司的资本结构普遍不合理,并没有充分发挥债务融资的财务杠杆效应。本文以我国电力行业四家上市公司作为实证样本,基于其财务杠杆效应的利用现状,通过多元回归分析揭示了净资产收益率与负债权益比、债务利息率、息税前利润率等影响因素的相关性及显著性,从而为电力行业上市公司财务杠杆效应的有效利用提供理论指导与实务借鉴。     

政府补贴和国有参股对参与PPP企业外部融资的影响

政府补贴和国有资本参股是政府参与PPP(政府和社会资本合作)的两种主要方式。本文借助一个资本具有外部性的一般均衡模型来分析这两种方式对企业外部融资的影响机制,并进行经验验证。理论分析发现,国有参股的担保效应增加了项目公司对高杠杆的需求,提升了金融中介发放贷款的意愿,使金融中介接受更低的借款利率。政府补贴不影响项目公司与金融中介之间的借贷合约。项目公司外部融资所受影响会进一步传导至参与PPP的企业。因此,国有参股增加稳态时的企业杠杆率,降低借款利率;政府补贴则不影响杠杆率和利率。实证部分通过整合2014-2018年财政部PPP项目库数据和2010-2018年上市公司财务数据,借助PSM-DID分析发现,国有参股程度显著降低参与PPP项目的上市公司的借贷成本并提升其杠杆率,但政府补贴支出没有明显作用,印证了模型结论。此外,市场化程度更高的地区,国有参股程度对参与企业外部融资的影响程度更小。本文研究对PPP模式下如何减少政府债务风险以及控制债务风险向企业转移具有一定的参考意义。     

Strategic Financial Management: Lessons from Seasoned Equity Offerings

Each of today's three dominant academic theories of capital structure has trouble explaining the financing behavior of companies that have seasoned equity offerings (SEOs). In conflict with the tradeoff theory, the authors’ recent studies of some 7,000 SEOs by U.S. industrial companies over the period 1970‐2017 notes that the vast majority of them—on the order of 80%—had the effect of moving the companies away from, rather than toward, their target leverage ratios. Inconsistent with the pecking‐order theory, SEO issuers have tended to be financially healthy companies with low leverage and considerable unused debt capacity. And at odds with the market‐timing theory, SEOs appear to be driven more by the capital requirements associated with large investment projects than by favorable market conditions. The authors’ findings also show that, in the years following their stock offerings, the SEO companies tend to issue one or more debt offerings, which have the effect of raising their leverage back toward their targets. Whereas each of the three theories assumes some degree of shortsightedness among financial managers, the authors’ findings suggest that long‐run‐value‐maximizing CFOs manage their capital structures strategically as opposed to opportunistically. They consider the company's current leverage in relation to its longer‐run target, its investment opportunities and long‐term capital requirements, and the costs and benefits of alternative sequences of financing transactions. This framework, which the authors call strategic financial management, aims to provide if not a unifying, then a more integrated, explanation—one that draws on each of the three main theories to provide a more convincing account of the financing and leverage decisions of SEO issuers.     

大股东股权质押与上市公司资本运作

资本运作一方面可以提高股价,另一方面可以让公司股票停牌,那么是否会成为大股东度过质押风险的方式呢？基于此,本文以2007—2018年我国A股上市公司为研究对象,考察了大股东股权质押对上市公司资本运作的影响及其作用机制。研究发现:(1)大股东股权质押比例越高,上市公司进行资本运作的可能性越大; 这一关系在质押股权面临的平仓风险越高和非国有控股的上市公司中更为显著。(2)机制检验发现,随着质押比例的提高,上市公司进行资本运作后的停牌时间越长;从股价提升的效果来看,资本运作在短期内能提高股价,缓解质押风险,但从长期来看效果并不显著。(3)上市公司进行资本运作的方式主要为股权转让、资产收购和资产剥离;其中,大股东主要利用资产收购和资产剥离增加停牌时间,利用股权转让助推股价。在控制了潜在的内生性问题影响以及各种稳健性检验下,上述结论仍然成立。     

THE CAPITAL STRUCTURE CHOICE: NEW EVIDENCE FOR A DYNAMIC TRADEOFF MODEL

Most academic insights about corporate capital structure decisions come from models that focus on the trade-off between the tax benefits and financial distress costs of debt financing. But empirical tests of corporate capital structure indicate that actual debt ratios are considerably different from those predicted by the models, casting doubt on whether most companies have leverage targets at all. In particular, there is considerable evidence that corporate leverage ratios reflect in large part the tendency of profitable companies to use their excess cash flow to pay down debt, while unprofitable companies build up higher leverage ratios. Such behavior is consistent with a competing theory of capital structure known as the "pecking order" model, in which management's main objectives are to preserve financing flexibility and avoid issuing equity.
The results of the authors' recent study suggest that although past profits are an important predictor of observed debt ratios at any given time, companies nevertheless often make financing and stock repurchase decisions designed to offset the effects of past profitability and move their debt ratios toward their target capital structures. This evidence provides support for a compromise theory called the dynamic tradeoff model, which says that although companies often deviate from their leverage targets, over the longer run they take measures to close the gap between their actual and targeted leverage ratios.     

A valuation-based test of market timing

We implement an earnings-based fundamental valuation model to test the impact of market timing on the firm's method of funding the financing deficit. We argue that our valuation metric provides a superior measure of equity misvaluation because it avoids multiple interpretation problems faced by the market-to-book ratio. It also eliminates the need to infer market timing based on the actions of corporate insiders or other indirect measures. We find a strong positive relation between the degree to which a firm is overvalued and the proportion of the firm's financing deficit that is funded with equity. This result is found cross-sectionally and through time and is robust to firm size, and other variables known to impact capital structure. We find evidence that overvaluation in the 1990s led to equity being increasingly preferred over debt. For a broad set of firms, market timing explains a significant portion of the variation in the type of security used to fund the financing deficit.