Disability insurance and optimal income taxation

This paper studies the design of disability insurance scheme when agents differ in their privately known productivity. We extend the Diamond and Mirrlees (1978) two period model to allow for agents differing ex-ante in their productivity and characterize the optimal nonlinear tax transfer that maximizes a utilitarian welfare function when per-period earnings and age are observable while individuals’ productivity and health status are not observable. We show that the induced tax/benefit scheme should exhibit a marginal income tax that decreases with age for some agents. A marginal subsidy on the young high productive income may be desirable. While the disability scheme always involves the old low productive agents to be indifferent between working and claiming disability benefits, this result is not always true for the old high productive agents. JEL Classification H55 · H23 · E62     

A hierarchical agency model of deposit insurance

This paper develops a hierarchical agency model of deposit insurance. The main purpose of the analysis is to propose a micro-founded model of deposit insurance schemes and study their effects on the behavior of depositors and the monitoring problem for a bank. This paper also characterizes a risk-based premium in equilibrium, and conducts a comparative statics analysis of depositors’ optimal actions. The results supply the basic theoretical foundation for designing deposit insurance schemes. Our findings are consistent with the empirical research on depositor behavior.     

A rating model for loss of profits insurance

Abstract

In this paper we present a rating model for loss of profits insurance for a production system consisting of n production units. Explicit expressions for the company's long run expected average claims expenditures are derived. A numerical example is given.     

投资收益、经营效率和寿险企业市场绩效

中国寿险业的垄断型市场结构并没有造成垄断企业控制市场以获得超额利润的情况。本文选取中国人寿、泰康人寿、新华人寿三家企业1998年～2007年间的面板数据作为样本数据,分析了我国寿险公司绩效的影响因素,认为在中国寿险业日益激烈的市场竞争下,寿险企业的利润主要来自投资收益,经营效率高的企业虽然不能因为技术效率和规模效率而获得高利润,但是可以在竞争中占有更多的市场份额。     

保险资金不动产投资模式研究

本文首先对国际上保险资金进行不动产直接投资和间接投资的情况进行了概述,然后对保险资金不动产投资模式进行了归纳总结和案例分析。在此基础上,对我国目前保险资金不动产投资政策与模式进行了探讨。最后,针对我国保险资金不动产投资业务的发展提出了相关建议。     

Optimal consumption,portfolio and life insurance rules for an uncertain lived individual in a continuous time model

A continuous time model for optimal consumption, portfolio and life insurance rules, for an investor with an arbitrary but known distribution of lifetime, is derived as a generalization of the model by Merton (1971). The classic Tobin-Markowitz separation theorem obtains with the mutual funds being identical to those obtained under the assumption of certain lifetime. The investor is found to have a ‘human capital’ component of wealth, which is independent of his preferences and risky market opportunities and represents the certainty equivalent of his future net (wage) earnings. Explicit solutions, which are linear in wealth, are found for the investor with constant relative risk aversion.     

The genetics of breast and ovarian cancer V: application to income protection insurance

In Part IV we presented a comprehensive model of a life history of a woman at risk of breast cancer (BC), in which relevant events such as diagnosis, treatment, recovery and recurrence were represented explicitly, and corresponding transition intensities were estimated. In this part, we study some applications to income protection insurance (IPI) business. We calculate premiums based either on genetic test results or more practically on a family history of BC. We then extend the model into an IPI market model by incorporating rates of insurance-buying behaviour, in order to estimate the possible costs of adverse selection, in terms of increased premiums, under various moratoria on the use of genetic information.     

Investigating the significance of insurance and income on health service utilization across generational cohorts

Ensuring access to health services is critical to consumers’ well-being across generational cohorts. Based on pre-disposing characteristics (that is, gender, ethnicity) and financial resources (that is, insurance and income) certain consumers may face barriers to access. In attempt to improve access to health care, this article presents an empirical investigation into how health service utilization can be affected by enabling variables, namely insurance and income. Utilizing proprietary secondary data from a major metropolitan hospital in the United States, the article investigates the following questions: How does insurance and income enable service utilization? How do pre-disposing characteristics of a consumer hinder service access? How does the effect of income and insurance moderate the effect of pre-disposing factors on service utilization? Finally, how do these effects on service utilization vary across generational cohorts? Results indicate that insurance and income may enable access to service, yet this effect is varied among different demographic cohorts and generational groups. The article concludes by offering implications for marketers and policymakers.     

财产保险公司重塑商业模式框架思路探析

目前保险行业面临的核心问题之一是商业模式不明确。本文分析认为,创建一个成功的保险商业模式、实现业务盈利能力持续提升的根本出路在于明确以客户为中心的价值主张;通过产业链整合策略和价值链延伸策略,明晰需要满足哪些客户哪些价值的市场定位;再造运营流程,集中精力改进那些对客户的购买决策有重大影响的流程,实现整个业务流程由客户需求来驱动、以客户满意为目标;优化组织架构以支持运营流程再造;最终通过实现文化丰富与发展对商业模式深化进行巩固,从而打造出保险公司价值发展的新蓝海。     

Forecasting stock price with the residual income model

The main purpose of this paper is to demonstrate a method to forecast stock price using analyst earnings forecasts as essential signals of firm valuation. The demonstrated method is based on the residual income model (RIM), with adjustment for autocorrelation. Over the past decade, the RIM has been widely accepted as a theoretical framework for equity valuation based on fundamental information from financial reports. This paper shows how to implement the RIM for forecasting and how to address autocorrelation to improve forecast accuracy. Overall, this paper provides a method to forecast stock price that blends fundamental data with mechanical analyses of past time series.     

保险集团财务管理模式探析

近几年来我国保险企业集团化快速发展,财务管理如何适应集团化的需要成了一个亟待研究和解决的问题。本文从分析集团企业不同财务管理模式的利弊入手,全面分析了影响保险集团财务管理模式的各种因素,明确了集团财务管理的基本要求,对保险集团不同发展阶段财务管理模式的选择提出了建议。     

A hierarchical model for the estimation of claim rates in a motor car insurance portfolio

Abstract

The present paper gives practical examples involving motor car insurance portfolios which we believe provide a natural setting in which collateral data should be used. In passing, the problem of assigning partial credibility is solved and an application of the empirical linearized Bayes estimators to experience rating is discussed.     

A growth oriented dual income tax

This paper proposes a growth oriented dual income tax by combining an allowance for corporate equity with a broadly defined flat tax on personal capital income. Revenue losses are compensated by an increase in the value added tax. The paper demonstrates the neutrality properties of the reform with respect to investment, firm financial decisions and organizational choice. Tax rates are chosen to prevent income shifting from labor to capital income. The reform decisively strengthens investment of domestically owned firms as well as home and foreign based multinationals and boosts savings. Simulations with a calibrated growth model for Switzerland indicate that the reform could add between 4 to 5 percent of GNP in the long-run, depending on the specific scenario. Given the slow nature of capital accumulation, it imposes considerable costs in the short-run. We consider a tax smoothing scenario to offset the intergenerationally redistributive effects. JEL Classification: D58, D92, E62, G32, H25     

On the role of market insurance in a dynamic model

Durables like cars or houses are a substantial component in the balance sheets of households. These durables are exposed to risk and can be insured in the market. We build a dynamic model in which agents have three possibilities to cope with the risk exposure of the durable stock: (i) purchase of market insurance, (ii) buffer-stock saving of the riskless asset or (iii) adjustment of the durable stock. We calibrate our model to the US economy and find a small role for market insurance.

我国洪水保险设立模式探讨

我国是洪水灾害频发的国家,每年由于洪涝灾害所造成的直接经济损失不断攀升,对我国的经济发展和社会稳定造成了极大的威胁。因此,建立一个行之有效的洪水保险已迫在眉睫。本文在对国际上现有的洪水保险模式总结分析的基础上,结合我国的基本国情,指出了当前我国建立洪水保险所面临的经济可行性、风险分散性和调动三方积极性的问题,并针对我国经济发展水平和洪水保险发展的不同阶段,提出了我国洪水保险应以小额保险先行,逐步过渡到强制性补偿保险,最后推广为指数化保险的三步走战略。     

我国健康保险业的健康管理运行模式构建

健康管理是健康保险转移财务风险、控制成本、解决信息不对称、道德危害等问题的成功策略之一。积极借鉴国外保险业健康管理的成功运行模式(如HMO,PPO,POS等),构建我国健康保险的健康管理运行模式对于我国健康保险业的可持续发展有着重大意义。本文重点研究了健康管理运行模式的重要组成部分:服务人群、服务方式、服务内容、支付机制、成本控制与医疗服务管理机制、利益协调机制、反馈机制等,并探讨了健康管理当前在我国面临的问题,指出必须结合国情构建健康管理运行模式,从而促进我国健康保险业务稳定、持续、健康的发展。