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1.
The Disposition Effect and Underreaction to News   总被引:5,自引:1,他引:4  
This paper tests whether the “disposition effect,” that is the tendency of investors to ride losses and realize gains, induces “underreaction” to news, leading to return predictability. I use data on mutual fund holdings to construct a new measure of reference purchasing prices for individual stocks, and I show that post‐announcement price drift is most severe whenever capital gains and the news event have the same sign. The magnitude of the drift depends on the capital gains (losses) experienced by the stock holders on the event date. An event‐driven strategy based on this effect yields monthly alphas of over 200 basis points.  相似文献   

2.
Many individual investors, mutual funds, and institutions trade as if dividends and capital gains are disconnected attributes, not fully appreciating that dividends result in price decreases. Behavioral trading patterns (e.g., the disposition effect) are driven by price changes instead of total returns. Investors rarely reinvest dividends, and trade as if dividends are a separate, stable income stream. Analysts fail to account for the effect of dividends on price, leading to optimistic price forecasts for dividend‐paying stocks. Demand for dividends is systematically higher in periods of low interest rates and poor market performance, leading to lower returns for dividend‐paying stocks.  相似文献   

3.
We use various stochastic dominance criteria that account for(local) risk seeking to analyze market portfolio efficiencyrelative to benchmark portfolios formed on market capitalization,book-to-market equity ratio and price momentum. Our resultssuggest that reverse S-shaped utility functions with risk aversionfor losses and risk seeking for gains can explain stock returns.The results are also consistent with a reverse S-shaped patternof subjective probability transformation. The low average yieldon big caps, growth stocks, and past losers may reflect investors’twin desire for downside protection in bear markets and upsidepotential in bull markets.  相似文献   

4.
We show that stop-loss rules increase the returns to investment in stocks with lottery features. These stocks typically have sporadic big gains and frequent small losses. However, stop-loss rules can reduce losses and allow investors to receive the gains from large price increases. We also highlight that sell signals of popular technical rules resemble stop-loss rules and are effective at increasing risk-adjusted returns for lottery stock. These rules could have helped investors avoid losses from major historical drawdowns, are particularly beneficial in declining markets, and are robust to the inclusion of transaction costs.  相似文献   

5.
处置效应是指投资者过早卖出盈利股票而长期持有亏损股票的现象。大量文献表明金融市场投资者存在显著的处置效应,但其产生的原因和机理存在争议。本文在前景理论框架下,构建了包含投资者非理性预期的离散时间投资组合决策模型,发现处置效应随投资者情绪升高而减弱。本文使用我国某券商2007—2009年近177万个人投资者股票账户的交易数据进行了实证分析,得到与理论模型预测的一致结果,即投资者情绪与投资者处置效应之间呈现显著的负相关关系。而且,受情绪影响,投资者处置效应在估值难度较大的股票中更弱。本文结论对理解投资者处置效应、优化投资者卖出决策和加强资本市场基础制度建设具有一定理论和实践意义。  相似文献   

6.
The literature suggests that the strong price synchronicity observed in emerging markets is driven by the lack of firm-specific information acquisition. This paper extends previous studies by focusing on the question of whether investors’ speculative trading behavior or market conditions make the synchronicity in emerging markets more pronounced. Our results indicate that the propensity to engage in speculative trades and a low level of linkage with the world market lead to greater stock price synchronicity. These results are consistent with the hypotheses that it is difficult to price firm-level fundamentals in a speculative market where noise trades prevail, and that less weight is attached to firm-specific fundamentals in pricing stocks in a more segmented market. The price synchronicities are largely found to be stronger in bearish markets, a finding consistent with the hypothesis that investors have increased loss aversion during bear markets, which further limits informed arbitrage.  相似文献   

7.
A number of authors have suggested that investors derive utility from realizing gains and losses on assets that they own. We present a model of this “realization utility,” analyze its predictions, and show that it can shed light on a number of puzzling facts. These include the disposition effect, the poor trading performance of individual investors, the higher volume of trade in rising markets, the effect of historical highs on the propensity to sell, the individual investor preference for volatile stocks, the low average return of volatile stocks, and the heavy trading associated with highly valued assets.  相似文献   

8.
宫汝凯 《金融研究》2021,492(6):152-169
信息传导的非同步和投资者情绪变化是股票市场的两个典型特征,前者会引发投资者之间出现信息不对称问题,后者主要体现为投资者过度自信,两者共同作用影响股票价格变动。本文将信息不对称和投资者过度自信情绪置于同一个分析框架,建立两阶段动态序贯定价理论模型研究现实市场上信息传导过程中股价变动的内在机制。结果表明:(1)面临新信息的进入,投资者对股票收益预期的调整与均衡价格之间具有正相关关系;(2)面临有利消息时,过度自信投资者比例越大,股票的均衡价格越高,投资收益将越低;面临不利消息时则相反;(3)随着过度自信投资者比例以及过度自信程度升高,市场风险溢价将下降;(4)投资者群体在信息传导过程中出现分化,对股价变动形成异质信念,未获取信息和获取信息但未出现过度自信的投资者认为股价被高估,获取信息且出现过度自信的投资者认为价格被低估,促使更多的交易,引发市场成交量和股价变动;(5)过度自信投资者比例与过度自信程度提高均会对市场效率产生正向影响,而对市场深度具有负向效应。最后,基于理论结果对非对称性和持续性等典型的市场波动性特征进行解释。  相似文献   

9.
We analyze brokerage data and an experiment to test a cognitive dissonance based theory of trading: investors avoid realizing losses because they dislike admitting that past purchases were mistakes, but delegation reverses this effect by allowing the investor to blame the manager instead. Using individual trading data, we show that the disposition effect—the propensity to realize past gains more than past losses—applies only to nondelegated assets like individual stocks; delegated assets, like mutual funds, exhibit a robust reverse‐disposition effect. In an experiment, we show that increasing investors' cognitive dissonance results in both a larger disposition effect in stocks and a larger reverse‐disposition effect in funds. Additionally, increasing the salience of delegation increases the reverse‐disposition effect in funds. Cognitive dissonance provides a unified explanation for apparently contradictory investor behavior across asset classes and has implications for personal investment decisions, mutual fund management, and intermediation.  相似文献   

10.
The disposition effect is an investment bias where investors hold stocks at a loss longer than stocks at a gain. This bias is associated with poorer investment performance and exhibited to a greater extent by investors with less experience and less sophistication. A method of managing susceptibility to the bias is through use of stop losses. Using the trading records of UK stock market individual investors from 2006 to 2009, this paper shows that stop losses used as part of investment decisions are an effective tool for inoculating against the disposition effect. We also show that investors who use stop losses have less experience and that, when not using stop losses, these investors are more reluctant to realise losses than other investors.  相似文献   

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