中国将迎来温和通胀时代

当前我国CPI上涨仍属于结构性通货膨胀，随着投资产能释放和国家逐步转变鼓励出口政策，对物价将发生较强的抑制作用，未来我国发生恶性通胀的可能性不大。     

需求拉动的结构性通胀与供给推进的总量性通胀

从2007年开始,由于需求拉动的结构性通货膨胀开始转化为成本推动的总量性通货膨胀,中国的经济发展格局可能会发生一系列的变化     

我国当前经济考察及宏观调控对策

防止经济增长由偏快转为过热,防止物价由结构性上涨演变为明显通货膨胀,成为我国当前宏观调控的首要任务。新一轮的宏观经济背景发生了较大变化,宏观调控手段和思路必须要根据新的经济环境作出调整。对当前经济形势的新变化作出充分估计和分析,将对我国宏观调控效应具有重要的现实意义。     

政府债务扩张导致通货膨胀的若干路径探究

本文从通货膨胀的角度阐述了政府债务对现实经济的影响。从理论分析与实践证明两方面分别就政府投资、购买、转移支付等路径揭示了政府债务的筹资与使用功能导致多种类型通胀的可能性,研究表明政府举债对于不同类型通货膨胀的发生密切相关,政府债务通过财政手段的赤字化、货币化、市场化和利率化等路径导致了通货膨胀的发生。     

政策短信

双防调控取向不因雪灾而变国家发改委政策研究室主任李朴民指出,双防宏观调控政策取向不会因南方地区的雪灾而发生改变,仍要防止经济增长由偏快转为过热、防止物价结构性上涨转变为明显的通货膨胀,这     

结构性通货膨胀解析——基于当前中国通货膨胀问题的思考

本文从总需求和总供给的经济结构两个层面对我国通货膨胀形势进行了剖析,表明我国当前源于总需求层面的通货膨胀压力已为中央银行的宏观调控锁定,目前的通货膨胀主要来源于经济结构层面。本文用部门间CPI的离散程度来表示结构性通货膨胀的数量特征,运用部门瓶颈模型分析了其形成机制,表明其根源在于农业部门发展的相对滞后,进而从收入分配角度解释了结构性通货膨胀的自我维持机制。在此基础上本文就抑制通货膨胀问题提出了相应的政策建议。     

美国预防通胀经验及对我国的启示

目前，全球经济形势正在发生积极变化，大幅下滑的趋势已经放缓，中国经济的复苏，商品价格环比数据的上升，势必会带动物价水平的回升，从而增加通货膨胀的可能性。从我国目前的情况看，居安思危，增强忧患意识，防止结构性物价上涨转变为全面通胀的关键在于尽快遏制通胀预期。美国治理通胀的经验教训对于中国来说不无借鉴和警示意义。为此笔者对相关情况进行收集整理，以供参考。     

关于国际金融危机下国内经济复苏导致通胀预期的分析探讨

通货膨胀是一种复杂的社会经济现象。通胀预期对通货膨胀的发生有重要的诱导作用。分析了通胀与通胀预期的关系,并就当前我国在国际金融危机条件下如何避免国内通胀预期真正转变为通货膨胀提出了对策建议。     

关于国际金融危机下国内经济复苏导致通胀预期的分析探讨

通货膨胀是一种复杂的社会经济现象。通胀预期对通货膨胀的发生有重要的诱导作用。分析了通胀与通胀预期的关系,并就当前我国在国际金融危机条件下如何避免国内通胀预期真正转变为通货膨胀提出了对策建议。     

我国通货膨胀的惯性特征及其对货币政策的启示

通胀惯性特征与货币政策效果联系十分紧密,在当前世界经济格局的转变与国外经济失衡的严峻挑战下,有必要对我国主要通胀率指标的惯性进行翔实的实证分析和政策含义讨论。本文在分析改革开放以来我国通货膨胀周期变化的基础上,利用自回归模型对季度CPI数据的惯性系数进行滚动样本估计以考察我国通货膨胀惯性动态特征,并建立VAR模型定量分析通货膨胀、经济发展及货币政策之间的相互影响关系,最后计算出实际产出缺口,结合CPI数据共同判断货币政策调整时机,力求为货币政策的实施提供规则化的参考。     

New tests of the new-Keynesian Phillips curve

Lagged dependent variables typically play an important role in empirical models of inflation. Do these lags reflect backward-looking inflation expectations, or do they proxy for rational forward-looking expectations, as in the new-Keynesian Phillips curve? Galí and Gertler [1999. Inflation dynamics: a structural econometric analysis. Journal of Monetary Economics 44, 195-222] attempt to answer this question using GMM to estimate specifications incorporating both lagged and future inflation. They report small coefficients on lagged inflation and conclude that the new-Keynesian model provides a good first approximation to inflation dynamics. We show that these tests have low power against alternative backward-looking specifications, and demonstrate that their results are also consistent with a backward-looking Phillips curve. Using an alternative approach, we find that the new-Keynesian pricing model cannot explain the importance of lagged inflation in standard inflation regressions, and find that forward-looking terms play a very limited role in explaining inflation dynamics.     

Dynamic central bank independence indices and inflation rate: A new empirical exploration

It has been argued that economies with more independent central banks experience lower inflation over time. In this paper we show that this relationship is sensitive to the methodology through which central bank independence indices are constructed. We stress the importance of employing dynamic central bank independence indices in two ways. First, we perform unit root tests with structural breaks to verify if the implementation of central bank reforms represents a structural break for the inflation rate dynamics. Second, we implement a panel data analysis.We find evidence that legislative reforms that modify the degree of independence of a central bank have a strong impact on the inflation rate dynamics. Moreover, underlying the importance of employing dynamic central bank independence indices, we confirm the negative relationship between the latter and inflation for a sample of 10 OECD countries.     

Globalization and Changing Inflation Dynamics in China

This article investigates the changing impact of economic globalization on inflation in China over the post-reform era. We construct an inflation dynamics model with globalization factors from microeconomic foundations. Empirical results with quarterly data spanning from 1984 to 2012 show that in 1994 there was a significant structural change in the inflation dynamics model, after which China’s inflation responded more significantly to foreign economic slack while the slope of the inflation-domestic slack relation reduced substantively.     

Inflation in New EU Member States: A Domestically or Externally Driven Phenomenon?

This article empirically analyzes the domestic and external inflation determinants for eight non-eurozone new EU member states (NMS), using a structural vector autoregression model. Results indicate that foreign shocks are a major factor in explaining inflation dynamics in the medium run, while the short-run inflation dynamics are mainly influenced by domestic shocks. Moreover, the importance of the foreign inflation component has had a rising trend in the precrisis period in all NMS and mostly coincided with their accession to the EU. This trend ended with the onset of the global financial crisis. The study implicates the need to augment the classical Taylor rule with foreign factors in the case of small open economies.     

The New Keynesian Phillips Curve: From Sticky Inflation to Sticky Prices

The New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC) model of inflation dynamics based on forward-looking expectations is of great theoretical significance in monetary policy analysis. Empirical studies, however, often find that backward-looking inflation inertia dominates the dynamics of the short-run aggregate supply curve. This inconsistency is examined by investigating multiple structural changes in the NKPC for the U.S. between 1960 and 2005, employing both inflation expectations survey data and a rational expectations approximation. We find that forward-looking behavior plays a smaller role during the high and volatile inflation regime to 1981 than in the subsequent period of moderate inflation, providing empirical support for sticky price models over the last two decades. A break in the intercept of the NKPC is also identified around 2001 and this may be associated with U.S. monetary policy in that period.     

The Structural Dynamics of U.S. Output and Inflation: What Explains the Changes?

We examine the dynamics of U.S. output and inflation using a structural time-varying coefficients vector autoregression. There are changes in the volatility of both variables and in the persistence of inflation, but variations are statistically insignificant. Technology shocks explain changes in output volatility; real demand disturbances variations in the persistence and volatility of inflation. We detect important time variations in the transmission of technology shocks to output and demand shocks to inflation and significant changes in the variance of technology and of monetary policy shocks.     

Quantifying the uncertainty about the fit of a new Keynesian pricing model

Recent studies by Gali and Gertler [1999. Inflation dynamics: a structural econometric analysis, Journal of Monetary Economics 44, 195-222] and Sbordone [2002. Prices and unit labor costs: testing models of pricing, Journal of Monetary Economics 49, 265-292] conclude that a theoretical inflation series implied by a forward-looking New Keynesian pricing equation fits post-1960 U.S. inflation closely. Their theoretical inflation series is conditional on (i) a reduced-form forecasting process for real marginal cost; and (ii) the calibration of the pricing equation. The present paper shows that both of these determinants are surrounded by considerable uncertainty. When quantifying the impact of this uncertainty on theoretical inflation, we can no longer say whether the forward-looking pricing equation explains observed inflation dynamics very well or very poorly.     

Comment on: “Inflation dynamics with search frictions: A structural econometric analysis” by Krause, Lopez-Salido and Lubik

The implications of search frictions on the inflation dynamics are shown here for the case with wage adjustments typically belonging to the New Keynesian model, not to the Mortensen–Pissarides framework. In that model variant, I identify the role of search frictions by an additional term entering the slope coefficient of the inflation equation. After a numerical exercise, I find results that are in line with those obtained by Krause et al. [2008. Inflation dynamics with search frictions: a structural econometric analysis. Journal of Monetary Economics 55, doi:10.1016/j.jmoneco.2008.05.003.].     

Inflation Dynamics and the New Keynesian Phillips Curve in Four Central European Countries

This paper seeks to shed light on the inflation dynamics of four new central European EU members: the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, and Slovakia. To this end, the New Keynesian Phillips curve augmented for open economies is estimated and additional statistical tests applied, with the following results: (1) the claim of New Keynesians that the real marginal cost is the main inflation-forcing variable is fragile, (2) inflation seems to be driven by external factors, and (3) although inflation holds a forward-looking component, the backward-looking component is substantial. An intuitive explanation for higher inflation persistence may be adaptive, rather than rational price setting of local firms.     

Are inflation expectations rational?

Several recent papers report evidence of an apparent statistical bias in inflation expectations and interpret these findings as overturning the rational expectations hypothesis. In this paper, we investigate the validity of such an interpretation. We present a computational dynamic general equilibrium model capable of generating aggregate behavior similar to the data along several dimensions. By construction, model agents form “rational” expectations. We run a standard regression on equilibrium realizations of inflation and inflation expectations over sample periods corresponding to those tests performed on actual data and find evidence of an apparent bias in inflation expectations. Our experiments suggest that this incorrect inference is largely the product of a small sample problem, exacerbated by short-run learning dynamics in response to infrequent shifts in monetary policy regimes.