商业银行存量资源风险转化研究

本文从剖析存量资源、存量资源风险的内涵出发,探寻存量资源风险存在的根源,思考化解存量资源特别是信贷资源风险的对策,提出了存量资源风险转化的具体措施。     

我国银行业风险的特征

当前我国银行业风险的主要特征是: 　　存量风险庞大,增量风险突出.存量风险就是已形成了的金融风险,增量风险则是指正在形成之中的风险.增量风险与存量风险在时间系列上是转化的.今年的增量转化为明年的存量,只有遏制住增量风险,才能真正化解存量风险.……     

析银行存量风险和增量风险

在计划经济条件下,特定历史原因形成的指令性贷款、重复建设贷款以及经营失败企业的贷款,在银行中沉淀了巨额的不良信贷资产,从而使国内各太商业银行成为脆弱的计划经济生态平衡链中恶性负债的唯一支撑点。存量风险是银行已经形成的金融风险。增量风险是银行每年新增贷款产生的金融资产风险。分析和研究银行资产中的存量风险和增量风险的成因,探索防范和化解存量风险和增量风险的思路,确保金融体系运‘作的稳健、安全,具有十分重要的现实意义。我国金融风险的产生、形成,既有制度、体制上的原因,又有现实经济生活的原因。我们必须看到金融风险形成的危害,重点在于防范增量风险。增量风险是存量风险的源头,只有遏制增量风险,才能化解存量风险。     

浅议商业银行增长方式的转变

商业银行要转变增长方式,从总体上讲要强化"三大观念"、处理好"三大关系".一是进一步强化科学发展观念,正确处理好质量和规模的关系.科学发展是实现银行价值最大化的必由之路,其核心是要处理好质量与规模的关系.要彻底克服重规模轻质量、重短期效益轻长期效益、重局部利益轻全局利益的思想,按照资本对风险资产的约束要求,实行资本约束下的信贷规模控制,走内涵式、集约化的发展道路.二是进一步强化效益观念,正确处理业务发展和风险防范的关系.要按照商业银行的本质要求,按照安全性、流动性和效益性的根本原则,追求风险防范与业务发展的平衡,实现高质量的发展.既要抓好风险防范工作,又要抓好优质市场拓展工作,切实将风险控制能力和核心竞争能力提高到新水平.三是进一步强化结构调整观念,正确处理好增量和存量的关系.要在严把新增贷款质量关、向增量要效益的同时,向存量要资源、向存量要质量、向存量要效益.要通过存量资源的调整来满足优质客户日益增长的信贷需求,通过对客户结构、产品结构的调整来满足商业银行的"三性"要求,提高全行业务经营绩效.具体讲,商业银行应做好以下工作:     

城建投资证券化融资的思考

当前的城建融资模式带来投资波动风险、财政风险及积累与消费失衡风险,在稳健财政政策条件下,证券化融资是城建融资的出路所在。证券化融资包括直接上市融资、利用现有“壳资源”再融资及资产证券化等形式,但都要求财政投入资金优化和存量资源整合两个基础性工作为前提。     

物业税：“利大于弊”还是“弊大于利”？

开征物业税可以优化城市土地资源的配置结构，提高城市住房存量资源的利用效率。同时还可抑制房地产投机行为．但对于银行来说，应关注物业税对信贷所产生的正负效应，提高防范风险能力。[编者按]     

境外人民币存量会弱化货币政策有效性吗?——基于2004-2017年境外人民币存量数据的实证研究

本文基于改进缺口法测算境外人民币存量,并研究境外人民币存量对货币政策产出效应和价格效应的影响。研究发现:境外人民币存量整体呈现上升趋势;无论从货币政策产出效应还是价格效应来看,境外人民币存量均弱化了货币政策有效性。对此,本文提出建立并完善人民币跨境流通的风险预警系统和风险防范机制,继续将货币供应量作为货币政策中间目标,拓宽人民币回流渠道,促使人民币跨国良性循环等政策建议。     

农信社存量贷款风险管理的路径选择

农村信用社是农村合作金融机构,肩负着支持＂三农＂和保障全面建设小康社会的重任。由于地位和责任特殊,农信存量贷款风险高于其他金融机构。存量贷款风险管理力求寻找出一条规避风险的途径,增强农村信用社自身发展能力,建立规避风险的有效机制。本文从普遍性和个性上分析了农村信用社存量贷款风险产生的原因,及应采取的对策提出了自己的见解。     

国务院办公厅印发《地方政府性债务风险应急处置预案》

近日,国务院办公厅印发《地方政府性债务风险应急处置预案》,对地方政府性债务风险应急处置做出总体部署和系统安排. 《预案》指出,地方政府性债务包括地方政府债券和非政府债券形式的存量政府债务,以及清理甄别认定的存量或有债务.要建立健全地方政府性债务风险应急处置工作机制,牢牢守住不发生区域性系统性风险的底线.     

现阶段农发行信贷风险防范

随着粮棉流通体制改革的不断深化，粮棉购销市场化程度越来越高，农发行信贷资金面临的风险也越来越大，表现为存量贷款和增量贷款的风险同时存在。在现阶段如何有效防范和化解农发行信贷风险，应区别存量贷款和增量贷款，采取不同的风险防范措施。     

The rise of risk: risk related bills submitted to the Swedish parliament in 1964-65 and 1993-95

Bills submitted to the Swedish parliament in 1964-65 and in 1993-95 were scored according to their major concern: risk, resource allocation or resource growth. It was found that risk related bills had increased strongly, from 11% to 28%, implying that currently almost a third of all bills in the Swedish parliament are related to risk issues. The absolute number of risk bills increased by a factor of four. Resource allocation bills, on the other hand, decreased strongly, and resource growth bills, a minority of bills, remained at a relatively low level. All parties except the Conservatives showed a strong trend towards increased risk concern, especially the Social Democrats. The most frequently encountered type of risks in the 60s were health related, while environmental risks predominated in the 90s. These changes are discussed in relation to the hypothesis that risks become more important during periods of slower economic growth. It is concluded that risk is currently a very important issue on the Swedish political agenda.     

The dispositif of risk management: Reconstructing risk management after the financial crisis

Despite its dubious role during the global financial crisis of 2008, risk management has continued its expansion. This paper addresses the question why risk management, in the face of its evident failure to manage risks during the crisis, has retained its importance even today. We build on the existing critical literature on risk management (Power, 2007) and advance it by introducing a more rigorous consideration of power. We refer to the notion of the “permanent state of exception” as conceptualized by the Italian social theorist Giorgio Agamben, 1998, Agamben, 2005 in order to argue that risk is a powerful social category as it reflects a potential exception, challenging norms as well as normalizing forms of control. We conclude that a dispositif of risk management, an assemblage of institutions, regulations and models, lies at the heart of risk management. This dispositif provides elites engaged in risk management with an argument that allows them – in exceptional situations – to take extraordinary measures which cannot be rescinded after the initial state of exception has ended. The logic of the state of exception can be used as a discursive resource and adds to, but also gradually replaces, other forms of management control. Our study contributes to management control theory by focusing on post-disciplinary forms of control and provides a novel focus on how elites use management control systems for their own interests.     

创新国库资金风险监督的实践与思考

随着国库业务的创新和国库操作方式的转变,国库风险呈现出日益加大、产生速度快、相对集中、监督难度增大的新特点。本文从如何防范国库风险的角度对现有的国库风险特点进和归纳并提出了预防国库风险的主要措施。     

Performing risk and the project: Risk maps as mediating instruments

In this paper, we analyze the relationship between management control and risk management by investigating the use of risk maps in an inter-organizational project collaboration in the Norwegian petroleum industry. The various ways in which risk maps are drawn upon in the course of the project reveal sources of perceived ‘usefulness’ that are not primarily to do with increased attention toward early warning signals and the defensive production of audit trails, as suggested by previous research. Rather, the study shows how risk maps act as mediating instruments which allow distributed actors to adjudicate interests, build confidence in and associate with ‘the project’ and its progress over time. Drawing on social studies of science and technology, the study shows how the graphical representations of risk maps manage to engage the user and act as mediating platforms where ‘performances’ around the notion of risk can happen. The paper thus extends and complements existing explanations of the pervasiveness of enterprise risk management technology and discusses its interrelation with project management and inter-organizational controls. More broadly, the paper illustrates how the government of risk is related to mediating instruments and how such mediation happens in the interplay between text and conversation.     

我国企业负债增加风险评价及分析

6月2日,韩国央行发布了《中国企业负债增加前景及风险评价》研究报告,报告阐述了我国企业负债增加的背景及存在的风险,并对风险进行了综合评价。本文通过对企业负债不良化的可能性、企业信用风险转移到政府的可能性及我国政府所采取的应对措施分析,可以看出,企业负债不良导致我国金融不稳定性发生的可能性很低,但即便如此,从中长期来看,有必要进一步采取措施有效防范和化解企业债务增加风险,保障企业能够平稳、健康发展。     

会计师事务所和资产评估机构风险规避的探讨

会计师事务所和资产评估机构执业过程中客观存在各种风险,必须明确并采取各种措施予以规避.本文从中介机构业务范围、中介机构规模、中介机构组织形式、强化职业道德教育等诸方面对风险规避问题加以分析,提出了有效规避风险的建议.     

Estimation of risk contributions with MCMC

Determining risk contributions of unit exposures to portfolio-wide economic capital is an important task in financial risk management. Computing risk contributions involves difficulties caused by rare-event simulations. In this study, we address the problem of estimating risk contributions when the total risk is measured by value-at-risk (VaR). Our proposed estimator of VaR contributions is based on the Metropolis-Hasting (MH) algorithm, which is one of the most prevalent Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. Unlike existing estimators, our MH-based estimator consists of samples from the conditional loss distribution given a rare event of interest. This feature enhances sample efficiency compared with the crude Monte Carlo method. Moreover, our method has consistency and asymptotic normality, and is widely applicable to various risk models having a joint loss density. Our numerical experiments based on simulation and real-world data demonstrate that in various risk models, even those having high-dimensional (≈500) inhomogeneous margins, our MH estimator has smaller bias and mean squared error when compared with existing estimators.     

Tax risk management and the multinational enterprise

The financial scandals in the United States and other countries ushered in financial reporting and corporate governance reforms that extend beyond the U.S. Sarbanes-Oxley Act of 2002 (SOX). These initiatives have increased the international financial community's awareness of the importance of risk management and internal controls. Tax risk management and related internal controls have been accorded less focus than risk management generally. The purpose of this research is to describe the current state of tax risk management of multinational enterprises (MNEs) by reporting survey responses from chief financial officers (CFOs) of U.S. and non-U.S. MNEs. The research shows that significant progress has been made by large MNEs in developing and implementing both general and tax risk management policies. The results provide guidance in identifying the loci and impact of organizational tax risk and indicate that respondents do not perceive alarming degrees of tax risk in their organizations. The study reveals a remarkable degree of similarity in U.S. and foreign firm responses and demonstrates, unexpectedly, that existing reporting structures enable CFOs to shift a significant degree of tax risk management to heads of tax.     

Improving the relevance of risk factor disclosure in corporate annual reports

This research develops a model for assessing the quality of risk disclosures and applies the proposed model to four companies in the food production and processing sector. We contribute to the literature by extending prior work on risk disclosure quality using a longitudinal approach to assess the quality of risk reporting. While previous studies have described disclosure practices, this paper adopts a normative approach to disclosure. By suggesting a way of improving risk reporting disclosures, the paper provides guidance for current and future company managers. In line with previous research, this paper identifies certain problems with existing risk disclosures. Results suggest that company managers prefer providing disclosures that are symbolic rather than substantive. We argue that institutional factors and proprietary costs contribute towards and can explain this behaviour. In suggesting a way forward we highlight the role that stakeholders including managers, users, regulators and auditors can play in improving the quality of risk reporting. Flexibility in reporting could be maintained by adopting a properly monitored ‘comply or explain’ approach.     

中国房地产企业间系统性风险溢出效应分析——基于尾部风险网络模型

本文以2007—2021年沪深A股上市房企为样本,首先基于SIM单指数分位数回归技术提出测量系统性风险的新指标SIM-CoVaR,并结合前沿的TENET网络模型,构造跨房地产企业风险动态传染的尾部风险网络,然后采用块模型探究房地产市场系统性风险溢出的聚类性、触发机制及传播路径,最后考察网络整体结构和宏观经济变量对房地产市场系统性风险溢出的影响。研究表明:(1)我国房地产企业间存在明显的系统性风险联动性和溢出效应,在市场动荡时期房地产部门是金融风险溢出的放大器;(2)评估系统重要性节点企业时,除考虑企业规模等内部属性,还应考虑房企间关联结构,利用系统性风险指数可有效捕捉网络中系统重要性节点;(3)跨房企的系统性风险溢出具有显著的聚类特征,尾部风险网络可被划分为4个不同的功能模块,各模块的成员及其角色呈现明显的时变特性,监管部门可据此从供给端“因企施策”;(4)网络聚集性、网络效率和网络匹配性的降低能显著降低房地产市场的系统性风险溢出效应。本文从企业微观层面探讨房地产市场风险的形成机制,为促进房地产业健康发展和防范化解宏观层面的系统性金融风险提供参考。