The impact of exchange rate deviations from relative PPP equilibrium on the U.S. demand for foreign equities

Applying fixed-effects panel data, this study investigates the impact of U.S. dollar exchange rate movements during different exchange rate states (overvaluation and undervaluation) on the monthly real gross and real net purchases of foreign equities by U.S. residents over the post-Plaza Accord period. The foreign equities come from 22 developed and 25 developing countries. Previous research has posited two alternative hypotheses regarding the relationship between exchange rates and foreign investment. These are the wealth effect and the profit-oriented effect. The evidence herein suggests that these two hypotheses coexist. We find robust evidence for a negative relationship between the exchange rate movements of an undervalued U.S. dollar and the demand for foreign equities. For developed countries, the wealth effect dominates the profit-oriented effect when the U.S. dollar is overvalued, while, for developing countries, the profit-oriented effect dominates the wealth effect. The results emphasize the importance of considering exchange rate states derived from a relative PPP equilibrium when analyzing U.S. allocations to foreign equities. The findings with respect to the macroeconomic control variables are mainly in agreement with the predictions of international financial theory. Some of the results, however, disappear or become inconclusive for the period after the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers. This may be explained by the increased uncertainty in international financial markets following this unprecedented event. The findings are robust with respect to different constructed equilibrium exchange rates.     

Structural breaks in volatility: Evidence for the OECD and non-OECD real exchange rates

This paper attempts to determine whether or not nominal exchange rate regimes affect the volatility of bilateral and effective real exchange rates. To that end, we examine the real exchange rate behaviour for a set of OECD and non-OECD countries during the 1960–2006 period, therefore covering both the Bretton Woods system of fixed exchange rates and the adoption of generalised floating exchange rates from 1973. We make use of an econometric methodology based on the Hansen's (Hansen, B.E., 1997. Approximate asymptotic P values for structural-change tests. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 15 (1), 60–67) approximation to the p-values of the supreme, exponential and average statistics developed by Andrews (Andrews, D., 1993. Test for parameter instability and structural change with unknown change point. Econometrica 61 (4), 821–856) and Andrews and Ploberger (Andrews, D., Ploberger, W., 1994. Optimal tests when a nuisance parameter is present only under the alternative. Econometrica 62 (6), 1383–1414). This methodology allows us to obtain a profile of p-values and to delimit periods of stability and instability in the variance of real exchange rates. Results suggest that there is clear evidence in favour of the non-neutrality of nominal exchange rate regime regarding real exchange rate volatility for developed countries, but not in the case of developing or emerging countries.     

Exchange Rate Policy and Sovereign Bond Spreads in Developing Countries

This paper analyzes how exchange rate policy affects the issuance and pricing of sovereign bonds for developing countries. We find that countries with less flexible exchange rate regimes pay higher spreads and are less likely to issue bonds. Changing a free‐floating regime to a fixed regime decreases the likelihood of bond issuance by 5.5% and increases the spread by 88 basis points on average. Countries with real overvaluation have higher spreads and higher bond issuance probabilities. The effects of real overvaluation on sovereign bonds tend to be magnified for countries with fixed exchange rate regimes.     

Changing Monetary Policy Rules, Learning, and Real Exchange Rate Dynamics

When the exchange rate is priced by uncovered interest parity and central banks set nominal interest rates according to a reaction function such as the Taylor rule, the real exchange rate will be determined by expected inflation and the output gap or the unemployment gap of the home and foreign countries. This paper examines the implications of these Taylor rule fundamentals for real exchange rate determination. Because the true parameters in central bank policy rules are unknown to the public and change over time, the model is presented in the context of a least squares learning environment. This simple learning model captures the volatility and the major swings in the real deutschemark/euro–dollar exchange rate from 1976 to 2007.     

Valuation effects and long-run real exchange rate dynamics

This paper uses the Johansen test for cointegration to check the prediction of a portfolio balance model that predictable valuation effects are associated with a saddle-path dynamic relationship between the net foreign asset position and the real exchange rate. The analysis uses newly constructed quarterly series on the net foreign position as a percentage of the nominal gross domestic product, together with data on real effective exchange rate indices for a sample of developed countries which borrow in their own currency. The results indicate that the net foreign asset position and the real exchange rate are not cointegrated for all the countries in the sample. The rejection of saddle-path dynamics suggests that predictable valuation effects are quantitatively small in developed countries. The rejection of cointegration suggests that the net foreign asset position is not a determinant for long-run real exchange rates in developed countries.     

Real exchange rate dynamics revisited: A case with financial market imperfections

In this paper, we investigate the relationship between real exchange rate dynamics and financial market imperfections. For this purpose, we first construct a New Open Economy Macroeconomics (NOEM) model that incorporates staggered loan contracts as a simple form of the financial market imperfections. Our model with such a financial market friction replicates persistent, volatile, and realistic hump-shaped responses of real exchange rates, which have been thought very difficult to materialize in standard NOEM models. Remarkably, these realistic responses can materialize even with both supply and demand shocks, such as cost-push, loan rate, and monetary policy shocks. This implies that the financial market development is a key element for understanding real exchange rate dynamics.     

Rational expectations,changing monetary policy rules,and real exchange rate dynamics

This paper reexamines the explanatory power of Taylor rule fundamentals for real exchange rate determination. We assume the agents know the time-varying parameters in central bank policy rules. The empirical results suggest that a monetary policy rule with regime switching is better able to explain the real Deutschemark/dollar exchange rate from 1976 to 1998 compared with a fixed-regime monetary policy rule. The findings show the importance of accounting for the expectation formation effect in changing policy rules as emphasized by the Lucas critique. Ignoring these effects can undermine the value of the rational expectations models.     

Real exchanges rates in commodity producing countries: A reappraisal

Commodity price booms, as those recorded in the last decade, may have a significant economic impact in small, commodity exporting, developing countries. Whether the impact on output is positive or negative is still unclear. It depends on various factors, notably on the impact that commodity prices can have on the real exchange rate of the commodity exporting countries. Two recent papers show that the real exchange rate appreciates when commodity prices increase. Our analysis produces new estimates of this relationship by focusing on a large sample of developing countries which are specialized in the export of one leading commodity. By using non-stationary panel techniques robust to cross-sectional dependence, we find that the price of the dominant commodity has a significant long-run impact on the real exchange rate when the exports of the leading commodity have a share of at least 20 percent in the country's total exports of merchandises. Our results also show that the larger this share, the larger the size of the impact.     

Real exchange rate dynamics: The role of elastic labor supply

Empirical evidence suggests that the flexibility of labor supply is closely related to the dynamic adjustment of the real exchange rate. This paper investigates this relationship in a two-sector dependent economy model. While, the long-run equilibrium real exchange rate is independent of the elasticity of labor supply, our analysis confirms that the nature of the labor supply can be a crucially important determinant of its short-run dynamics. The extent to which this is so depends to some degree on the source of the underlying structural change that is driving the dynamics of the real exchange rate. Numerical simulations confirm that this mechanism may help explain the larger short-run volatility and more rapid convergence typically associated with developing countries having less flexible labor markets.     

The emerging global financial architecture: Tracing and evaluating new patterns of the trilemma configuration

This paper investigates how the trilemma policy mix affects economic performance in developing countries. We find that greater monetary independence can dampen output volatility, while greater exchange rate stability is associated with greater output volatility, which can be mitigated by reserve accumulation; greater monetary autonomy is associated with higher inflation, while greater exchange rate stability and greater financial openness is linked with lower inflation; pursuit of exchange rate stability can increase output volatility when financial development is at an intermediate stage. Greater financial openness, when accompanied by a high level of financial development, reduces output volatility.     

Nonlinear exchange rate predictability

We study whether the nonlinear behavior of the real exchange rate can help us account for the lack of predictability of the nominal exchange rate. We construct a smooth nonlinear error-correction model that allows us to test the hypotheses of nonlinear predictability of the nominal exchange rate and nonlinear behavior on the real exchange rate in the context of a fully specified cointegrated system. Using a panel of 19 countries and three numeraires, we find evidence of nonlinear predictability of the nominal exchange rate and of nonlinear mean reversion of the real exchange rate. Out-of-sample Theil’s U -statistics show a higher forecast precision of the nonlinear model than the one obtained with a random walk specification. Although the robustness of the out-of-sample results over different forecast windows is somewhat limited, we are able to obtain significant predictability gains—from a parsimonious structural model with PPP fundamentals—even at short-run horizons.     

The behaviour of the real exchange rate: Evidence from regression quantiles

We test for mean reversion in real exchange rates using a recently developed unit root test for non-normal processes based on quantile autoregression inference in semi-parametric and non-parametric settings. The quantile regression approach allows us to directly capture the impact of different magnitudes of shocks that hit the real exchange rate, conditional on its past history, and can detect asymmetric, dynamic adjustment of the real exchange rate towards its long run equilibrium. It, therefore provides a detailed mapping of the real exchange rate behaviour, while being a robust alternative to previous unit root tests. The latter is confirmed by a simulation analysis comparing the power of the alternative tests. As concerns the real exchange rate, our results suggest that large shocks tend to induce strong mean reverting tendencies in the exchange rate, with half lives less than one year in the extreme quantiles. Mean reversion is faster when large shocks originate at points of large real exchange rate deviations from the long run equilibrium. However, in the absence of shocks no mean reversion is observed. Finally, we report asymmetries in the dynamic adjustment of the RER.     

Adjustment patterns to commodity terms of trade shocks: The role of exchange rate and international reserves policies

We analyze the way in which Latin American countries have adjusted to commodity terms of trade (CTOT) shocks in the 1970–2007 period. Specifically, we investigate the degree to which the active management of international reserves and exchange rates impacted the transmission of international price shocks to real exchange rates. We find that active reserve management not only lowers the short run impact of CTOT shocks significantly, but also affects the long run adjustment of REER, effectively lowering its volatility. We also show that relatively small increases in the average holdings of reserves by Latin American economies (to levels still well below other emerging regions current averages) would provide a policy tool as effective as a fixed exchange rate regime in insulating the economy from CTOT shocks. Reserve management could be an effective alternative to fiscal or currency policies for relatively trade closed countries and economies with relatively poor institutions or high government debt. Finally, we analyze the effects of active use of reserve accumulation aimed at smoothing REERs. The result support the view that “leaning against the wind” is potent, but more effective when intervening to support weak currencies rather than intervening to slow down the pace of real appreciation. The active reserve management reduces substantially REER volatility.     

Economic convergence and the fundamental equilibrium exchange rate in central and eastern Europe

The paper presents an extended version of the fundamental equilibrium exchange rate model (FEER), which introduces potential output into foreign trade equations. We show that with this specification and under some plausible assumptions the equilibrium exchange rate is consistent with the behavioral equilibrium exchange model (BEER). We use the extended FEER model to analyze fluctuations of the real exchange rate in four central and eastern European countries. The resulting FEER calculations show that the appreciation of the real exchange rates in these countries in the past nine years is largely an equilibrium phenomenon.     

Monetary Policy Choices in Emerging Market Economies: The Case of High Productivity Growth

We develop a general equilibrium model of an emerging market economy where productivity growth differentials between tradable and non-tradable sectors result in an equilibrium appreciation of the real exchange rate—the so-called Balassa-Samuelson effect. The paper explores the dynamic properties of this economy and the welfare implications of alternative policy rules. We show that the real exchange rate appreciation limits the range of policy rules that, with a given probability, keep inflation and exchange rate within predetermined numerical targets. We also find that the B–S effect raises by an order of magnitude the welfare loss associated with policy rules that prescribe active exchange rate management.     

Globalization,exports, and effective exchange rate indices

This paper offers a new way of compiling effective exchange rate indices, which is then shown to perform generally better in prototype equations explaining total real exports than other published indices. Researchers can use this method to compile effective exchange rates, real or nominal, readily for any country. The generally superior performance, based on cointegration tests using data from four major economies, four Latin American countries, and four South East Asian countries, suggests the proposed index which uses GDP weights rather than trade weights, is more appropriate in a highly globalized world. Intensified globalization in the past two decades appears indicated by the higher elasticities of exports with respect to the real effective exchange rate over time.     

Exchange rate volatility and productivity growth: The role of financial development

The vast empirical exchange rate literature finds the effect of exchange rate volatility on real activity to be small or insignificant. In contrast, this paper offers empirical evidence that real exchange rate volatility can have a significant impact on productivity growth. However, the effect depends critically on a country's level of financial development. The results appear robust to time window, alternative measures of financial development and exchange rate volatility, and outliers. We also offer a simple monetary growth model in which real exchange rate uncertainty exacerbates the negative investment effects of domestic credit market constraints.     

The PPP approach revisited: A study of RMB valuation against the USD

We analyze the alleged undervaluation of the Chinese renminbi against the US dollar through an application of the relative PPP hypothesis, the PPP approach. The PPP approach measures the relative misalignment of a currency by estimating the relationship between log price levels and log per capita real incomes from a cross section of countries. We estimate this relationship by using ICP 2011 and incorporating model selection tests. Our results confirm that price level-real income relationship is best approximated by a quadratic functional form. We show that, using this functional form, the PPP approach does not reveal any evidence of renminbi undervaluation as of 2011, and this result is robust to various sensitivity tests.     

De facto exchange rate regimes and currency crises: Are pegged regimes with capital account liberalization really more prone to speculative attacks?

This paper empirically examines whether de facto exchange rate regimes affect the occurrence of currency crises in 84 countries over the 1980–2001 period by using the probit model. We employ the de facto classification of Reinhart and Rogoff (2004) that allows us to estimate the impact of relatively long-lived exchange rate regimes on currency crises with much greater precision. We find that pegged regimes significantly decrease the likelihood of currency crises compared with floating regimes. By using the combined data of exchange rate regimes and the existence of capital controls, we also find interesting evidence that pegged regimes with capital account liberalization significantly lower the likelihood of currency crises compared with other regimes. These results are robust to a wide variety of samples and models. From the standpoint of the macroeconomic policy trilemma, we can conjecture that pegged regimes with capital account liberalization are substantially less prone to speculative attacks because they can enhance greater credibility in their currencies by abandoning monetary policy autonomy.     

Exchange rate pass-through into import prices revisited: What drives it?

A large sample of developed and emerging economies is utilized to investigate import exchange rate pass-through. Panel models reveal that various economic aspects of the destination country can explain about one third of the total variation in pass-through elasticities and the remaining variation comes largely in the form of unobserved country-specific effects. Inflation, exchange rate volatility, openness and relative wealth play a clear role as drivers of emerging markets’ pass-through whereas the output gap and protectionism appear influential more generally. Nonlinearity regarding large-versus-small changes in the exchange rate is quite pervasive. Our evidence challenges the widely-held view that pass-through has been universally falling in developed markets and that it is higher for emerging markets. The economic drivers are shown to play a role as out-of-sample predictors of pass-through. The findings confirm pricing-to-market theories and have implications for the optimal conduct of monetary policy.