医保改革面临挑战

当前,许多国家仍存在医疗服务可得性差、医疗成本高昂、公共卫生支出效率低下等问题,医保改革面临重大挑战。医保改革目标存在两难—既要改善人们的健康状况,又要控制支出成本,因而提高公共卫生支出效率是改善社会健康状况的最优选择。各国政府的干预形式和公共卫生支出水平因国别、时间等的不同而变化。财政状况较好的新兴经济体需在保证财政可持续的前提下扩大基本医保覆盖面;发达经济体则应注重提升公共卫生支出的效率并限制支出增长速度。     

医保改革面临挑战

当前,许多国家仍存在医疗服务可得性差、医疗成本高昂、公共卫生支出效率低下等问题,医保改革面临重大挑战。医保改革目标存在两难—既要改善人们的健康状况,又要控制支出成本,因而提高公共卫生支出效率是改善社会健康状况的最优选择。各国政府的干预形式和公共卫生支出水平因国别、时间等的不同而变化。财政状况较好的新兴经济体需在保证财政可持续的前提下扩大基本医保覆盖面;发达经济体则应注重提升公共卫生支出的效率并限制支出增长速度。     

发达经济体及新兴经济体浅析

本文就发达经济体以及新兴经济体的对比分析，探讨了提升新兴经济体核心竞争力的科学对策。由效率、基础要素以及创新层面进行了研究。对推进新兴经济体的科学发展，提升经济建设总体发展质量水平，有重要的实践意义。     

中国原油进口仍将强劲

能源咨询公司伍德麦肯兹（WoodMackel3zie）表示，按目前趋势，到2020年中国将每年支出50004＆美元进口原油，这是各方迄今对全球第二大经济体石油需求作出的最乐观的预测之一。     

发达与新兴经济体非常规货币政策工具对比分析及对我国的启示

在面临国际新一轮非常规货币政策溢出效应和国内经济下行的双重压力下,研究我国非常规货币政策具有重要的现实意义。本文归纳了发达经济体非常规货币政策工具类型,并与新兴经济体进行对比分析,结论表明发达经济体更侧重于创新货币政策工具,新兴经济体则侧重于非常规使用传统货币政策工具,值得借鉴的是央行资产负债表规模和结构的改变。     

美联储退出非传统货币政策的工具选择与影响

文章在提炼非传统货币政策定义和回顾美联储实践的基础上，分析了菲传统货币政策退出进程中的工具选择，强调退出的总体规划、时机、力度选择的重要性，进而分析退出非传统政策对美国、其他发达经济体、新兴经济体以及中国可能带来的风险。     

全球金融风险冲击下的新兴经济体宏观经济波动

2008年全球金融危机爆发以来，世界面临的不确定性迅速上升，新冠疫情的暴发更是给世界经济带来前所未有的冲击，多重风险叠加严重影响了新兴经济体宏观经济的平稳运行。本文采用面板局部投影法，考察风险冲击对新兴经济体的影响，发现杠杆率较高、金融市场摩擦较大、经济周期处于衰退阶段的新兴经济体，会遭受更严重的负面冲击。基于此，本文构建一个小国开放DSGE模型，详细分析全球金融风险冲击影响新兴经济体宏观经济波动的影响机制。研究发现：对于杠杆率较高和金融市场摩擦程度较大的新兴经济体，风险冲击会使企业风险溢价上升幅度更大，对经济造成更严重的负面影响；对于资本流动顺周期性较强的新兴经济体，风险冲击会显著抬高国家主权风险溢价，使国内基准利率上升，放大风险冲击的负面影响。因此，本文认为，新兴经济体通过控制宏观杠杆率、完善金融基础设施、逆周期调节跨境资本流动等手段，能够有效降低风险冲击带来的负面影响。     

殊途同归

会计准则国际趋同的路径不仅包括以IASB为轴心铺设成的与各经济体之间的趋同主干道，还包括各经济体之间两两相连勾勒出的趋同支辅线。只要经济体各存利益，趋同的支辅线就一定存在。各经济体之间的竞合博弈将使趋同平添些许微妙。     

全球或提前结束紧缩期

一方面,不管是新兴经济体还是发达经济体,均出现明显的增速放缓迹象;另一方面,不断出现的灾难性天气也在一定程度上拖缓央行加息步伐,因此,经历了近一年的加息狂潮后,全球或被迫提前结束“紧缩期”。     

新兴经济体主权债务货币错配演变及启示

鉴于历次国际债务危机的教训，自20世纪90年代末以来新兴经济体积极发展本币债券市场与发行本币计价国际债券，以降低主权债务货币错配程度，2013年之前国际投资机构持有的新兴经济体本币政府债券占比总体不断上升，但近十年来由于新兴经济体本币汇率波动加剧，这一趋势基本停滞。因此，一方面，与21世纪初相比，大多数新兴经济体的“原罪”约束显著缓解，本国国际债务实际偿还负担变动对汇率波动负面效应的敏感度下降；另一方面，货币错配风险从新兴经济体政府部门转移至国际投资机构的资产负债表，新兴经济体对全球金融周期波动变得更敏感，新兴经济体外部金融风险模式从“原罪”向“新形态原罪”转变。这给新兴经济体和我国的宏观管理政策带来了启示：一是成熟的国内金融市场体系和健全的国内投资者基础，有助于对冲因国际资本大规模流动对本国货币金融环境的负面冲击；二是适度发展本国汇率衍生品市场并开放国际投资机构参与，有助于稳定从汇率波动到国际资本流动顺周期波动的传导。     

Government size and economic growth in emerging market economies: a panel co-integration approach

A significant positive influence of both government size and domestic investment on economic growth is found in the long run during 1970–2006 for a sample of 19 emerging market economies, employing panel co-integration testing and estimating the parameters using dynamic ordinary least square method, for all the indicators, excepting the case when one chooses general government final consumption expenditure as a percentage of GDP a measure of government size and gross capital formation as a percentage of GDP a measure of domestic investment, with per capita GDP a proxy for economic growth. The findings corroborate the argument that diverse results of the earlier studies are due to different measures adopted.     

GOVERNMENT SPENDING IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES: Trends, Causes, and Consequences

Throughout the twentieth century governments have been spendingever larger proportions of national income. Three issues arisein discussions about the growth of such spending as it pertainsto developing countries: How does it compare with expenditurein industrial nations? What explains the growth in spendingby developing country governments? And what are the effectson economic growth? Government expenditure as a share of GDPin low- and middle-income countries, on average, is lower thancomparable shares in industrial market economies and, with fewexceptions, is growing. Many factors, including ideology, demographics,a positive income elasticity for public goods, the rising costof public goods relative to private goods, and perhaps developmenttheory and practice, explain this growth. As for the relationshipbetween government expenditure and economic growth, the empiricalevidence does not reveal any strong correlation. The size ofgovernment may engender strong ideological debate, but the positionthat the aggregate level of government expenditure is a significantdeterminant of growth rates receives little support.      

Who benefits from financial liberalization? Evidence from advanced and emerging market economies

In recent decades most countries have implemented significant reforms to foster financial liberalization. This article examines to what extent these reforms have benefited advanced economies and emerging market economies. We focus on four groups of countries: the G-7, other European countries, Latin America and East Asia over the period 1973–2006. We find evidence supporting the hypothesis that the different forms of financial liberalization affected growth differently in the four groups of countries. The main finding is that the benefits of financial liberalization are more important for advanced economies. In contrast, financial liberalization in emerging market economies has a weak positive impact on growth when its scope is limited, whereas full liberalization has been associated with slower economic growth.     

印度的医疗卫生融资改革

印度公共医疗卫生支出水平较低,且在各邦之间分布不均。中央政府拨款对于各邦政府自身医疗卫生支出具有替代性。本文认为,要推进印度医疗卫生事业改革,必须扩大公共医疗卫生支出,提高政府支出效率,并重新设计转移支付制度。     

What expenditure does Anglosphere foreign borrowing fund?

This paper examines the extent to which foreign borrowing funds private investment, consumption and government expenditure in the United States, the United Kingdom, Australia, and New Zealand (the Anglosphere), advanced economies which have been the world's largest international borrowers since 1990. Using a bivariate predictive regression model, we estimate the relative importance of these expenditure aggregates as predictors of their external deficits, and hence foreign borrowing. Overall, based on quarterly macroeconomic data for the period 1990–2011, the evidence suggests that foreign borrowing has not financed higher household consumption in these economies over recent decades, with the possible exception of the United States. While results concerning government spending are mixed due to policy reaction, business cycle and public-private saving offset effects, strong results for private investment augur well for the sustainability of this grouping's foreign borrowing.     

Challenges of Fiscal Policy in Emerging and Developing Economies

This article presents a systematic analysis of the availability and use of fiscal space in emerging and developing economies. We report two major results. First, emerging and developing economies built fiscal space in the run-up to the Great Recession of 2008–2009, which was then used for stimulus. Since then, fiscal space has shrunk and remains narrow as these economies have taken advantage of historically low interest rates. Second, fiscal policy in emerging and developing economies has become countercyclical (or less procyclical), i.e., “graduated,” since the 1980s, as most clearly demonstrated during the Great Recession. The move towards graduation is most pronounced for those economies with greater fiscal space, which suggests that fiscal space matters for a government’s ability to implement countercyclical fiscal policy.     

REIT Economies of Scale: Fact or Fiction?

The real estate industry has recently witnessed significant and pervasive consolidation with further growth and consolidation generally viewed as inevitable. For example, between 1990 and 1997, growth in average net real estate investments by large REITs outpaced growth in average net real estate investments by small REITs by 13 percent. However, no systematic study of the benefits of this consolidation exists. This research studies whether or not there are gains to consolidation due to economies of scale from size, brand imaging, and informational gains from geographic specialization. Our sample consists of 41 multifamily equity REITs, for whom financial and property level data are available in the SNL REIT Database. Using this data, we construct shadow portfolios that mimic each REITs exposure to changes in local market conditions. Our results show no size economies, that branding in real estate is allusive, and that geographic specialization, in agreement with Gyourko and Nelling (1996), has no significant benefit.     

A Consulting Giant; a Disgruntled Client: A ‘Failed’ Attempt to Change Management Controls in a Public Sector Organisation

There has been very little research into management consulting interventions in public sector organisations, especially in emerging economies. This paper aims to fill this void by narrating the empirics of a consulting assignment carried out by a large international consulting firm in a Pakistani public sector organisation. The study found that consultants’ recommendations of ‘businesslike’ management controls, such as a modern performance measurement system and a ‘state‐of‐the‐art’ information system, were rejected outright by the client management. Employing a critical realist perspective that focuses on the structural conditions facing both the client and the consultants, and on the strategies adopted by both parties, the study aims to explain the empirics of the case. Through structural and strategic analysis, this paper aims to enhance our understanding of the dynamics of management consulting in public sector organisations, especially in emerging economies.     

人口老龄化对住院费用增长的贡献——基于CFPS数据的分析

在中国,许多人认为,人口老龄化是医疗费用增长的主要驱动力,极度担忧人口老龄化带来医疗费用的快速膨胀。本文首先利用CFPS 2010年和2012年的调查数据,计算了2009-2011年间中国(老年)人口年龄结构变动和(老年)人口数量变动对住院总费用增长的贡献。接下来,利用2009年和2011年全国人口抽样调查数据进行了校正。结果发现,(老年)人口年龄结构变动不是住院医疗费用增长的主要原因,(老年)人口数量剧烈变动可能对住院医疗费用增长产生较大的影响。但是,就中国现实而言,不论是人口老龄化还是老年人口数量变动,对中国住院费用增长的贡献均极其有限。这既是因为人口老龄化本身的速度很慢,老年人相对于非老年人的平均住院费用较低,并且老年人平均住院费用随年龄升高而下降,也是因为中国年龄别平均住院费用增长过快。为此,未来应进一步提高老年人医疗保障水平,加强慢性病预防和康复体系建设,关注医疗保险支付方式改革,遏制医疗技术快速发展和医师诱导需求现象,以控制医疗费用快速上涨。