Key performance indicators as supplements to earnings: Incremental informativeness,demand factors,measurement issues,and properties of their forecasts

The documented decline in the information content of earnings numbers has paralleled the emergence of disclosures, mostly voluntary, of industry-specific key performance indicators (KPIs). We find that the incremental information content conveyed by KPI news is significant for many KPIs yet diminished when details about the computation of the KPI are absent or when the computation changes over time. Consistent with analysts responding to investor information demand, we find that analysts are more likely to produce forecasts for a KPI when that KPI has more information content and when earnings are less informative. We also analyze the properties of analysts’ KPI forecasts and find that KPI forecasts are more accurate than mechanical forecasts and their accuracy exceeds that of earnings forecasts. Our study contributes to the literature on the information content of KPIs as well as research on the properties of analysts’ forecasts. We provide evidence on whether and how to regulate voluntary disclosures.

     

The relevance of environmental disclosures: Are such disclosures incrementally informative?

Establishing the information content of transparent voluntary environmental disclosures and the source of this information content is of fundamental importance for corporate social responsibility (CSR) practitioners. Our results indicate that: (1) incremental to information provided by current Toxics Releases Inventory (TRI) data, voluntary environmental disclosures provide valuation relevant information; (2) the various disclosure categories are similar in value relevance, implying that each category is informative of management’s current environmental strategies; (3) current TRI is positively associated with cost of capital but there is no association between voluntary environmental disclosures and cost of capital; and (4) taken together, the above results point to a signaling role for such disclosures and financial performance prediction as the means by which voluntary environmental disclosures enhance firm value. This advances the literature by pinning down the source of firm value enhancement of such disclosures. Our results suggest that a proactive environmental strategy and the signaling of such a strategy to investors can enhance a firm’s stock price, a finding which will assist CSR practitioners in convincing top management that proactive environmental strategies combined with transparent voluntary environmental disclosures are worthwhile.     

Analyst forecast characteristics and the cost of debt

We examine the relation between analyst forecast characteristics and the cost of debt financing. Consistent with the view that the information contained in analysts’ forecasts is economically significant across asset classes, we find that analyst activity reduces bond yield spreads. We also find that the economic impact of analysts is most pronounced when uncertainty about firm value is highest (that is, when firms have high idiosyncratic risk). Our findings are robust to controls for private information in equity prices and level of corporate disclosures. Overall, the results indicate that the information contained in analyst forecasts is valued outside the equity market and provide an additional channel in which better information is associated with a lower cost of capital.     

How do corporate websites contribute to the information environment? Evidence from the U.S. and Taiwan

We study corporate website disclosures in the U.S. and Taiwan, two countries with different regulatory and market environments, to provide insights into the uniformity of website content and its contribution to the information environment. We observe significant variation in content both within and between the two countries. U.S. firms with higher analyst following tend to create more transparent financial information environments and provide disclosures that are complementary to analysts’ analyses through their corporate websites. They also tend to provide easier access to investor relations (IR) services if analyst coverage is light or nonexistent. However, neither effect is true in Taiwan where the securities analysis industry is less mature. Individual investors have greater ownership share in U.S. firms with more information about IR services on their websites; however, their ownership share drops as financial disclosure on the firm’s website increases, consistent with institutions diluting individual ownership in firms with more transparency in financial reporting. In Taiwan, however, institutions dilute individual ownership share in firms with less financial information and more trading information on their websites. These results are consistent with Barber et al.’s (2009) findings that institutions find Taiwan firms that attract the aggressive, speculative trading of individuals to be extremely profitable investments. Website disclosures in both countries have some effect on the stock-price response to mandatory earnings releases, but their impact is greater in the U.S. Our findings indicate that website disclosures contribute to the information environment and are related to the degree of interest in the firm by sophisticated market participants. Thus, they provide insights to regulators of both countries as they seek to improve disclosure and “level the information playing field.”     

What Determines Corporate Transparency?

We investigate corporate transparency, defined as the availability of firm‐specific information to those outside publicly traded firms. We conceptualize corporate transparency within a country as output from a multifaceted system whose components collectively produce, gather, validate, and disseminate information. We factor analyze a range of measures capturing countries' firm‐specific information environments, isolating two distinct factors. The first factor, interpreted as financial transparency, captures the intensity and timeliness of financial disclosures, and their interpretation and dissemination by analysts and the media. The second factor, interpreted as governance transparency, captures the intensity of governance disclosures used by outside investors to hold officers and directors accountable. We investigate whether these factors vary with countries' legal/judicial regimes and political economies. Our main multivariate result is that the governance transparency factor is primarily related to a country's legal/judicial regime, whereas the financial transparency factor is primarily related to political economy.     

Corporate Governance and the Informational Efficiency of Prices

We explore the relation between corporate governance and the informational efficiency of prices (IEP). We find that IEP increases with the quality of corporate governance in a large cross‐section of firms. We show that firms with better governance structures file Form 8‐K reports more promptly and have more accurate analysts’ earnings forecasts, suggesting that corporate voluntary disclosures and analyst forecasts are channels through which corporate governance affects IEP. The positive relation between IEP and governance quality cannot be attributed to reverse causality or other confounding factors (e.g., analyst following, stock market liquidity, and institutional ownership). On the whole, our results show that better governance structures lead to higher IEP by improving the speed and extent of corporate information disclosures.     

The Effect of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act on Analyst Forecast Properties: The Impact of Firm Size and Growth Opportunities

Abstract:  We provide evidence that the effect of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act (the Act) of 1995 on analyst forecast properties is conditional on firm size and growth opportunities. We show that analyst coverage, frequency of forecast revisions, forecast errors and dispersion after the Act decreased for large firms and for firms with low growth opportunities but increased for small firms and for firms with high growth opportunities. These results are consistent with the hypothesis that the Act results in additional high quality disclosures in large firms, which face higher litigation risk and tighter scrutiny from investors but not in smaller firms. Our findings of increases in analyst coverage and revision but deterioration in accuracy and precision of analyst forecasts for firms with high growth opportunities after the Act suggest that in spite of increased corporate disclosures, the information environment for analysts deteriorated in those firms.     

Voluntary disclosures and information production by analysts

We analyze the voluntary disclosure decision of a manager when analysts scrutinize the quality of disclosure. We derive an equilibrium in which managers voluntarily disclose unfavorable information only if sufficiently precise, but disclose favorable news with lower levels of accuracy. We show that analysts cover good news disclosures with higher scrutiny. To the extent analysts rely on mandatory financial reports to interpret voluntary disclosures, we show that more precise financial reports may lead to more precise but less frequent voluntary disclosures. Moreover, a slant toward conservatism in financial reports can lead to less precise yet more frequent voluntary disclosures.     

IFRS adoption and analysts’ earnings forecasts: Australian evidence

We study 145 large listed Australian firms to explore the impact of international financial reporting standards (IFRS) adoption on the properties of analysts’ forecasts and the role of firm disclosure about IFRS impact. We find that analyst forecast accuracy improves, and there is no significant change in dispersion in the adoption year, suggesting that analysts coped effectively with transition to IFRS. However, we do not observe the expected relationship between firms’ IFRS impact disclosures in their financial statements issued at the end of the transition year with forecast error and dispersion in the adoption year. The results question the timeliness and usefulness of financial statement disclosure, even in a setting where disclosure was mandated by accounting standards (AASB 1047 and AASB 1) and firms had strong incentives to provide information to analysts.     

Management earnings forecasts and the quality of analysts’ forecasts: The moderating effect of audit committees

This study investigates whether effective audit committees influence the association between management earnings forecasts and the properties of analysts’ forecasts. We posit that this influence on the part of an audit committee would likely result from increased responsibility for monitoring voluntary disclosure. Using the four attributes that the Blue Ribbon Committee (1999) and prior research suggest as being indicative of audit committee effectiveness, we find that analysts’ forecasts exhibit higher accuracy and lower dispersion with the issuance of management forecasts for those firms employing audit committees that are composed exclusively of independent directors, include an accounting expert, and act with due diligence. We also find that effective audit committees strengthen the association between management and analyst forecast accuracy. Our evidence, therefore, supports the notion that effective corporate governance influences the reliability of voluntary disclosure, and thereby benefits the users of financial information.     

Does intellectual capital disclosure in analysts' reports vary by firm characteristics?

In this paper, we explore how Australian sell-side financial analysts contribute to the supply of intellectual capital (IC) information in the capital market. Toward this end, we examine how types and semantic properties of IC disclosures in analyst reports vary by a number of firm-specific characteristics likely to be associated with voluntary corporate disclosure. Consistent with our expectations, we find that the uncertainty associated with forecasting firm's earnings and the IC intensity of the industry in which the firm operates are associated positively with the extent as well as several semantic properties of IC disclosure in analyst reports. Highlighting that IC disclosure in analyst reports is not always a function of the extent of IC disclosed by firm, we find a statistically significant but negative association between firm profitability and the extent and certain semantic properties of IC disclosure in analyst reports. Firm size was significantly and positively associated with only the extent of forward-looking IC disclosure. Of the three categories of IC, only relation capital disclosure varied with any of the explanatory variables. Our findings highlight the importance of analyst reports as an IC communication media that could complement corporate communications of IC not only for firms disclosing less IC information voluntarily but also for those firms known to disclose more.     

证券分析师VS统计模型:证券分析师盈余预测的相对准确性及其决定因素

本文使用2005年35家券商对我国上市公司做出的每股盈余预测数据,考察了证券分析师盈余预测相对于统计模型的相对准确性及其决定因素。我们发现,我国证券分析师做出的盈余预测,同以年度历史数据为基础的统计模型得出的盈余预测相比,预测误差较小,证券分析师盈余预测具有一定的优势;但同某些以季度历史数据为基础的统计模型得出的盈余预测相比,预测误差较大,证券分析师盈余预测不具有优势。我们同时考察了决定证券分析师盈余预测相对准确性的决定因素。我们发现,公司每股盈余的波动性越大,公司上市越晚,跟踪公司的分析师越多,证券分析师的优势就越大。我们的研究对证券分析师以及投资者都有一定的启示作用。     

Information dissemination on intellectual capital in mergers and acquisitions: purchase price allocations,press releases and business press

In order to reduce information asymmetries in relation to a firm's current decisions and long-term strategy, firms must consistently provide information to stakeholders. This paper investigates intellectual capital (IC) information disclosed in mergers and acquisitions (M&A) provided through three different disclosure channels (voluntary press releases, related newspaper articles and subsequent mandatory corporate disclosures in the notes to the financial statements). For a sample of 215 randomly selected US and European M&As, we analyse 215 press releases, 1025 newspaper articles and 215 purchase price allocations. Our findings suggest that IC disclosure in press releases is not perceived as informative and qualitative forward-looking IC information in voluntary corporate disclosures appears to lack credibility. Moreover, we empirically demonstrate interdependencies across the three disclosure channels. The business press seems to filter IC information provided in press releases. The amount of IC disclosure in the notes to the financial statements is positively associated with prior IC disclosure in newspaper articles, but negatively associated with IC disclosure in press releases. The managements of acquirer firms appear to pay attention to news coverage and public opinion. However, both voluntary and mandatory corporate disclosures appear to substitute rather than complement each other.     

Improvement in clinical trial disclosures and analysts’ forecast accuracy: evidence from the pharmaceutical industry

This paper examines whether financial analysts use the information contained in clinical trial disclosures to improve their forecast accuracy for pharmaceutical companies. Findings indicate that the improved clinical trial disclosures due to a quasi-regulation issued by the International Committee of Medical Journal Editors (ICMJE) significantly reduce analysts’ long-term forecast error. In addition, a propensity-score matching analysis provides additional strong evidence that issuance of the 2005 ICMJE’s regulation is accompanied by an average 45 % decrease in long-term forecast error, and a more than 50 % decrease in long-term forecast dispersion. This study contributes to the accounting literature regarding nonfinancial disclosures by providing the first insights into financial analysts’ use of clinical trial disclosures in their forecasts of future earnings. In addition, because the major event examined in this study is a quasi-regulation issued by the ICMJE, we provide additional insights on the effectiveness of industry-initiated regulations (or quasi-regulations) on nonfinancial disclosure practice.     

The Impact of AASB 8 Operating Segments on Analysts’ Earnings Forecasts: Australian Evidence

This paper evaluates the impact of firms’ adoption of AASB 8 segment disclosure rules on analysts’ earnings forecasts. It examines whether providing more disaggregated segment information following the adoption of AASB 8 is associated with an increase in analysts’ ability to forecast earnings. We find that analysts’ earnings forecasts have not improved significantly after adopting AASB 8 in Australia, regardless of whether firms disclosed more disaggregated segment information. Our use of control firms provides assurance that the results are due to AASB 8 and not to some other events concurrent with the adoption of AASB 8. Overall, our results imply that the benefits associated with the management approach as experienced by financial analysts in the United States have not been realised by financial analysts in Australia. This suggests that the successful adoption of an accounting standard in one country should not be the justification for recommending adoption in other countries. Further, our results raise questions about whether the enhanced disclosures required in the new standard are more for the other users of financial statements, such as investors, rather than analysts.     

Corporate risk-taking,firm value and high levels of managerial earnings forecasts

We examine the impact of high levels of managerial earnings forecasts, an important form of voluntary disclosure, on corporate risk-taking and firm value. Theory and anecdotal evidence suggest that a policy of high disclosure may reduce managers' willingness to invest in higher-risk, higher-return projects. We first verify, as in prior research, that corporate risk-taking is associated with higher future firm value. We then document a negative relation between firms with high levels of forecasting and corporate risk-taking. Finally, we provide evidence suggesting that high levels of managerial earnings forecasts reduce the positive association between corporate risk-taking and future firm value. Our results are robust to alternative measures of corporate risk-taking and future firm value, and alternative definitions of high levels of managerial earnings forecasts. Our results may be of importance to varying interests as they highlight the potential for high levels of earnings forecasts to inhibit corporate risk-taking and lower firm value.     

Do early and voluntary filers of financial information in XBRL format signal superior corporate governance and operating performance?

On March 16, 2005, the SEC issued Final Rule 33-8529 encouraging registrants to voluntarily file tagged financial statement information on the EDGAR reporting System using XBRL format. In this paper, we examine whether early and voluntary filers of financial information in XBRL format demonstrate superior corporate governance and operating performance relative to their non-adopting peers. We investigate performance, market, and structure-related firm variables. Our results suggest that corporate governance is significantly and positively associated with a firm's decision to be an early and voluntary filer of financial information in XBRL format. At the same time, firm performance factors including liquidity and firm size are also associated with the early and voluntary XBRL filing decision. Our findings should be particularly interesting for the SEC, as it considers the corporate governance and firm-performance related associations between certain registrants' early and voluntary response and its call for XBRL-based filings.     

Managerial career concerns and the content of corporate disclosures: An analysis of the tone of earnings press releases

This study examines how the narrative content of corporate disclosures is affected by managers’ career concerns, measured by the enforceability of noncompete provisions in employment contracts. We provide empirical evidence that career concerns lead managers to manipulate the content of corporate disclosures by inflating the tone of earnings press releases to convey a more optimistic picture about the firm’s financial performance. We ensure the causality of our findings by exploiting changes to noncompete enforceability following court rulings. We also show that tone inflation is stronger when CEOs are younger, less capable and less experienced, as well as for managers of firms with more independent boards, more analysts following and better governance.     

Mandatory CSR disclosure and analyst forecast properties: Evidence from a quasi-natural experiment in China

Based on a quasi-natural experiment that mandates a subset of listed firms to issue standalone corporate social responsibility (CSR) reports, we examine whether mandatory CSR disclosure improves analysts’ information environment. We focus on two properties of analysts’ earnings forecasts: forecast error and forecast dispersion. We find that the mandatory issuance of standalone CSR reports is related to less forecast error and less dispersed forecasts, and the effect varies with the firm-level information environment and province-level marketization. Additional tests show that the improvement in forecast properties is mainly driven by CSR reports that i) are of high quality and ii) contain more long-term-oriented information than other CSR reports. Our findings provide evidence that mandatory CSR disclosure plays an important informational role for financial analysts.