我国税收负担:现状与优化

本文从宏观和微观两个层面分析我国的税收负担,认为我国宏观税负的提高只是一种恢复性增长,税负没有偏重,在世界上仍处于偏低水平,税收收入持续大幅度增长主要基于经济的持续快速增长及由此引发的税基扩大,但微观税负方面,企业的税负偏重。因此,需要继续优化我国的税收负担和税制。     

税收收入，GDP及我国宏观税负分析

经济是税收之根本，税收的增长离不开经济的增长，税收反作用于经济，这是经济与税收之间的一般规律，本分析了税收收入与GDP的各个构成要素之间的关系，并通过世界各国宏观税负的分析，结合我国的实际情况，提出了我国宏观税负的合理区间，论证了我国目前小口径宏观税负偏低，而大口径的宏观税负已处于一个较高的水平，进而得出了解决目前财政困难的措施是调整目前的政府收入结构，规范政府收入形式，而不宜走简单增税的路子。     

我国宏观税负的合理化水平分析

宏观税负的合理化水平，就是使经济增长达到最大的宏观税负水平。在我国现阶段，投资是经济增长的主要来源，本文通过投资与税收关系模型的分析，得出了我国合理的宏观税负水平，并与实际水平相对比，现阶段宏观税负尽管还处于合理的区间，但已快接近临界点。对税制改革的启示是，改革要注意调整税制结构，增加一些像环境税、财产税等意义重大的税种，而一些容易转嫁的间接税可以适当减少。     

经济新常态下的宏观税负、财政支出与经济增长

经济新常态是当前我国经济发展的一个阶段性新特征,这一时期最主要的一个特点就是更加注重经济发展的质量,改变"唯GDP"的理念,放缓经济增长速度。经济学家通过理论与实证分析发现:宏观税负与经济增长之间存在显著的负相关关系,我国目前使经济增长最大化的宏观税负约为15%。在前人研究的基础上,本文基于拉弗曲线的原理,利用我国1994~2013年数据,建立实证模型,拟分析当前规划的GDP增速水平下的最优税负,提出降低宏观税负和优化财政支出结构以促进经济增长的政策建议。     

我国宏观税收负担:实证分析与思考

通过定量分析可以发现我国当前名义宏观税收负担较低，但考虑到预算收入和制度外收入，实际宏观税负比名义税负高出12个百分点，实现宏观税负水平巳大大超过中国发展中国家的合理水平。回归分析表明，税负过重影响经济发展，因此有必要正确认识我国当前税收增长状况，尽量避免税收收入的超常增长。     

浅议宏观税负与我国长期经济增长的内在关联北大核心CSSCI

宏观税负反映了政府参与国民收入分配的程度。参照国际发展经验,随着人均GDP的提高,政府所占分配的比重一般趋于缩小。而我国则呈现上升的趋势,长期来看,这种悖于发展规律的现象隐藏着对经济增长的潜在威胁。本文利用国民收入核算支出法,将宏观税负纳入经济增长的内在结构中,建立起宏观税负、政府消费与经济增长的内在联系,分析宏观税负与政府消费对我国长期经济增长的内在作用,从而为政府实行轻税政策提供依据。     

我国宏观税负水平的数量分析与界定标准

本文依据税收与经济的关系,建立了相关数学模型,对我国宏观税负的发展态势进行了数量分析,得出的结论是在不考虑结构性因素的条件下,我国目前宏观税负水平下降的最主要原因是收费过多和企业所得税的滞长.并经过分析提出了衡量我国宏观税负的五项标准,即生产力发展水平标准、税收基本能力标准、政府职能标准、经济可持续发展标准和政府收入规范化标准.本文依据这五条标准对我国的宏观税负进行了客观的分析判断,并提出了我国今后一段时期宏观税负可以达到的水平.     

当前我国宏观税负问题研究

近年来,我国税收收入等政府收入快速增长、宏观税负不断提高,引起社会各界的广泛关注。本文分析认为,当前我国宏观税负不断提高具有经济质量提高为支撑,也符合我国当前政府职能转变和管理的需要;并且,宏观税负的提高在现阶段对经济的整体影响是正面的,对居民收入增长影响不大。对我国宏观税负的提高应予以理性审视,其研究重点应从税负总量水平向优化调整税收来源结构和财政支出投向结构转移。     

中国宏观税负、非税负担与经济增长

中国最优宏观税负问题一直是财税学界研究的重点。中国财税体制的特殊性给最优宏观税负的研究增加了许多困难,也引起了不少争议。本文将宏观税负的最优目标设定为使经济增长最大化,并按照国际口径对税收收入进行调整,将预算外收入引入经济增长分析框架,利用数据包络(DEA)方法求得制度外收入等不可观测变量的估计值。在此基础上,运用计量经济学方法测算使经济增长最大化的最优宏观税负水平、税负结构,并分析非税负担对经济增长的影响。     

湖南宏观税负与经济增长关系的研究

本文基于湖南省税收与GDP的实证分析,结合税收理论就最优税负问题进行了理论探讨,结果表明:湖南省宏观税负与经济增长、产业结构存在着双向、复杂的互动关系,总的来说,湖南省的最优宏观税负是以动态而非静态存在,并在此基础上一定程度上修正了"宏观税负—经济增长"的认识。     

教育与资本怎样的前景怎样的现实

来自政府的声音: "动员各种社会资源,发展教育" 此次论坛上财政部长助理张少春的发言是最受关注的发言之一.他的演讲传达出的信息有这样几方面:第一,谈到现实,他认为全社会对教育的巨大需求与我国公共投入不足已成为我国教育事业发展的突出矛盾.近年来,以公共部门投入为主,多渠道筹措教育经费的教育投入机制成为解决这一问题的重要途径,也使得公共部门与私营部门在教育领域的合作日益密切.第二,谈到前景,他认为,1.中国经济持续、快速的增长对高技能人才产生巨大的需求,这为私营部门的参与提供了广阔空间.2.随着公共财政职能的不断完善,财政资金将在各项教育事业中重新进行分配,进一步优化财政支出结构,提高资金的使用效率.在"十一五"期间,我国将把公共支出的重点转移到农村.我们将逐步把全体农村适龄儿童的义务教育全部纳入公共财政体制.     

Debt and Taxes and Uncertainty

With a graduated personal tax schedule, Miller showed that there could be an equilibrium debt supply for the corporate sector as a whole. In the presence of uncertainty there is also a unique debt/equity ratio for each individual firm, and this ratio is related to the firm's operational risk characteristics. However, if firms merge and spin off in response to tax incentives, the identity of firms is ambiguous and only the corporate sector is a meaningful construct. These arguments are developed in both discrete and continuous models that employ extensions of the arbitrage-free pricing theory.     

East and west and north and south : A preliminary model

The Brandt report and other proposals for a new North-South world order continue to be the focus of lively debate, yet it is often argued that little concrete has emerged from their recommendations. A major reason for this, the author argues, is that the East-West conflict component is not sufficiently taken into consideration-East-West tensions are a severe constraint on and a determining factor of North-South relations. Using influence diagrams, the author develops a flexible framework for discussion and assessment of N/S-E/W relations.     

Tournament-based incentives and mergers and acquisitions

This research examines the relation between tournament-based incentives, which are proxied by the difference between a firm's CEO pay and the median pay of the senior managers, and mergers and acquisitions (M&As). We find that tournament-based incentives are positively related to firm acquisitiveness and acquiring firms' stock and operating performance. Further analysis indicates that positive acquisition performance increases the likelihood of the CEO being promoted from inside the acquiring firm. Our evidence is consistent with the view that tournament-based incentives motivate acquiring firms' managers to make greater efforts and take more risk that result in superior acquisition performance.     

Trust and cross-border mergers and acquisitions

A number of studies suggest that social trust matters for investment. Using different measures of trust from World Values Survey, we show that countries where people display higher levels of trust engage in more cross-border M&A activities. When they do, these acquirers pay lower premiums. To the extent that these acquirers also tend to engage in larger acquisitions as well, our findings suggest that a larger selection pool of potential targets and higher value targets enable these acquirers to negotiate for lower premiums. We do not find evidence of the significant effect for target country trust levels. Hence, trust may benefit those acquiring firms in cross-border transactions.     

Corporate Innovations and Mergers and Acquisitions

Using a large and unique patent‐merger data set over the period 1984 to 2006, we show that companies with large patent portfolios and low R&D expenses are acquirers, while companies with high R&D expenses and slow growth in patent output are targets. Further, technological overlap between firm pairs has a positive effect on transaction incidence, and this effect is reduced for firm pairs that overlap in product markets. We also show that acquirers with prior technological linkage to their target firms produce more patents afterwards. We conclude that synergies obtained from combining innovation capabilities are important drivers of acquisitions.     

Director gender and mergers and acquisitions

Does director gender influence CEO empire building? Does it affect the bid premium paid for target firms? Less overconfident female directors less overestimate merger gains. As a result, firms with female directors are less likely to make acquisitions and if they do, pay lower bid premia. Using acquisition bids by S&P 1500 companies during 1997–2009 we find that each additional female director is associated with 7.6% fewer bids, and each additional female director on a bidder board reduces the bid premium paid by 15.4%. Our findings support the notion that female directors help create shareholder value through their influence on acquisition decisions. We also discuss other possible interpretations of our findings.