数据集中需安全升级

随着计算机和网络通讯技术的发展，数据集中凭借拓展业务发展空间、降低运营成本、加快新产品研发周期和推广速度的优势，成为各家商业银行电子化建设的方向。数据集中后计算机生产系统的安全运行已成为银行生存与发展的焦点，如何保障计算机生产系统稳定运行将是银行一项长期的重点工作。     

数据集中后的安全性分析及措施

数据集中在提高人民银行集约化管理水平、降低运行风险的同时，对计算机信息系统的可靠性和安全性也提出了更高的要求。面对数据集中后出现的风险集中、内控滞后、同步性差等问题，提出在数据集中后，要把风险防范侧重点放在业务处理大集中、数据系统管理大集中、网络管控大集中三个层面。     

数据集中后的安全问题与对策

近年来，人民银行先后通过推广货币金银管理信息系统、人民币银行结算账户管理系统、大额支付系统、小额支付系统、外汇业务管理系统等重要业务系统进行数据集中，这些系统都是通过内联网传输数据至省会中心支行和总行两级数据中心。数据集中降低了总体的运作成本，提高了设备利用率，减少了基层系统维护工作，是金融电子化和信息化的发展方向。但数据集中后，也带来了许多新的风险管理问题。如何保障这些重要业务系统安全有效地运行，是数据大集中后所必须面临的问题。因此，探讨数据大集中后可能产生的安全问题及其解决的对策和办法具有非常重要的现实意义。     

国库数据集中可行性研究与数据集中模式探讧

会计核算系统成功运行并实现数据集中后，如何防范国库资金风险，成为基层人民银行日趋重要的工作。但目前以县支库为基本国库会计核算单位的分散式核算模式，存在着诸多弊端，已不适应国库业务发展的需要。随着国库会计核算2．6操作系统（TBS）的推广应用，税、库、行联网及会计核算系统（ABS）的成功推行，国库会计核算数据集中试行已具备了条件。所谓国库会计核算数据集中，是指在不影响现行国库会计核算流程的前提下，改变国库核算数据物理摆放格局，实现国库会计核算数据的集中，并在此基础上全面升级TBS系统，对国库资金风险实施集中防范和监控，为财税库行横向联网提供高效、安全的数据接口。     

数据集中环境下PKI技术的应用探讨

一、前言 随着数据集中和资源整合日益成为银行业信息化的方向，我国工行、农行、中行、建行以及中国银联等金融机构基本完成了数据大集中，人民银行近年来的信息系统建设都按照数据集中的模式构建。数据集中对技术、业务和生产运营的统一管理和规范、软件开发和系统运行的质量、数据安全和灾难备份的保障也提出了更高的要求和标准。     

中心机房改造的整体方案与具体实施

伴随着中国农业发展银行数据大集中的实现，省级分行正在成为全行数据集中的大前置环节，在信息技术工作中发挥着承上启下的作用。省级分行中心机房作为保证各应用系统、网络安全稳定运行的基础平台，在建设与管理上也面临机房内设备和应用系统不断增多、网络连接方式愈益复杂、安全问题和管理矛盾日益凸显等诸多挑战。因此，如何科学有效地建设和管理中心机房成为数据大集中后省级分行信息技术工作的新课题。     

基层央行如何做好数据集中后信息系统的安全管理

2005年，中央银行会计集中核算系统、人民币账户管理系统、货币金银管理信息系统相继在福建基层的人民银行系统推广。这些系统都采用了数据集中模式，但随着数据集中的实现，安全运行成了牵一发而动全身的大事，确保各业务系统数据的安全运行显得尤为重要。     

商业银行数据大集中带来的风险与防范对策

全球经济一体化进程的加快和社会经济的快速发展,使我国银行业各类客户的经济活动方式和地域范围发生了巨大的变化。客户结算半径的扩大,要求银行提供更加高效．便捷、安全、可靠的结算和支付手段。这就需要我国商业银行打破传统的基于省域范围甚至更为分散的地域性条块分割的管理和经营模式,依托快速发展的信息技术进行技术创新,为客户提供实时的、全国性的金融产品,和多样性、个性化的新型服务渠道,建设一个集中统一的全国性的数据集中处理环境,实现银行全国性数据大集中是大势所趋。计算机特别是大型计算机技术和集群技术的发展,为实现全国大集中提供了可能;同时网络通信技术的快速发展,为实现全国大集中提供了必要的技术条件。从1999年开始,国内各家商业银行,先后开始尝试数据大集中。目前,国内大部分商业银行已基本完成数据大集中的工作,数据集中能够有效地提高商业银行的结算服务水平和内部管理水平,防范金融风险,进一步提高资金的流动性和营运效率。但是,也应当看到,在数据集中的同时,将网络,运行、核心系统控制等风险都集中到了各商业银行总部,这就要求各商业银行要加强对数据中心的基础设施管理,特别是网络运行管理,保障数据集中后业务系统的安全稳定运行。     

数据大集中引发的思考

2002年6月，湖北省农行成功地推广了ABIS综合应用系统，实现了全省数据大集中，数据资源的集中存储、共享和管理。4年后的今天，湖北农行将实施更深层次、更大范围的数据集中，即数据上收到总行。2006年5月12日，该行ABIS、AIPS、IBS、BIBS、CMS等系统将一次性切换到农总行数据中心，实现总行运行中心集中控管的全国省级分行数据大集中。     

如何建立大集中后的生产系统故障应急处理体系

随着银行业数据的高度集中，相应地带来了管理的集中和风险的集中。如果生产机房发生灾难事件，银行就会面临所有网点及业务停顿的困境，更为严重的是可能丢失业务数据，因此保障银行业务系统的安全稳定运行显得尤为重要。目前各家银行都建立了灾难备份系统，但由于灾难备份系统受演     

Almanac of anticipations: The age of affluence—of anticipation—of anxiety—of automation—of discontinuity—of longing—of overkill—of space exploration

With this survey of developments in the futures field since 1945, I.F. Clarke completes his present series for Futures. He makes two major points: that forecasting techniques have become essential tools in the management of change; and that nuclear weapons and ecological problems have added a moral dimension to the study of the future. In the next issue of Futures he will start a new series on the range of future-thinking in the USA, from the expectations of the first settlers to the Star Wars programme.     

社会主义所有制形式的改革、完善与共产党执政能力的提高

在中国,所有制形式的调整、改革与完善,先进生产力的发展,党的执政能力建设,是社会主义建设过程中密切结合在一起的三个不同层面的发展关系.应在相互促进和共同提高中促进社会的和谐发展,保证社会主义现代化建设战略目标的顺利实现.     

基金公司经营融资融券业务的问题审视

融资融券业务正式运营已经开展,为证券市场带来了革命性的改革,作为证券市场的一大主体,基金公司面对融资融券也迎来了新的发展方向和挑战,本文从融资融券业务的运行机制入手,分析了基金公司融资融券的新契机,并对其即将面临的问题进行审视和剖析,进而提出策略建议.     

对基层人民银行科技工作的几点建议

银监会分设后,人民银行将专司货币政策、金融稳定、金融服务三大职能。作为人民银行的分支机构,基层人民银行的工作重心也将从金融监管调整到这三大职能上来。人民银行的科技部门,就要积极运用科技手段,为人民银行履行新的职能发挥“服务、支持、促进、发展”的作用。一、围绕三大职能搭建五大平台经过“六五打基础、七五作准备、八五大发展”几个阶段后,人民银行相继实现了核算电算化、清算网络化和办公信息化。特别是近一两年来,陆续开通了大额支付系统、信贷登记咨询系统、会计四集中系统、金融信息服务网站等系统,人民银行信息化水平又…     

Properties of time-series estimates of degree of leverage measures

Empirical studies suggest that time-series regression estimates of the degrees of operating and financial leverage have a tendency to produce measures less than one. According to ex ante theory, these measures should be greater than one for firms operating above the breakeven point. There have also been suggestions that the biases in these estimates may be attributable to an underlying increase in unit sales. This work presents evidence that these counter-intuitive measures are produced by changes in the firm's operating parameters (unit price, variable cost, fixed cost and interest payments). It further suggests that attempts to control for the underlying change in unit sales substantially increase the volatility of predicted estimates.     

浅议金融机构的举证责任

金融纠纷案件是当事人以存单或进账单、对账单、存款合同、保险单、票据、证券等凭证为主要证据向人民法院提出诉讼的案件,对于不同种类金融纠纷的当事人的举证责任,我国现行的金融法律、法规及司法解释有不同的规定。由于金融机构的特殊法律地位,发生金融纠纷时存在有关当事人将最后偿付风险转移给金融机构承担的主观故意,在客观上会使金融机构难以提供相应的证据来对抗不法债权人的诉讼请求,而导致金融机构败诉。为此,对金融诉讼案件中金融机构的举证责任加以研究具有重要的实践意义。     

The Usefulness of Measures of Consistency of Discretionary Components of Accruals in the Detection of Earnings Management

Abstract:  Prior research has shown the prevalence of measurement error in models used to estimate aggregate discretionary accruals. In these models, the incremental information content of the various components of accruals is ignored. Limited prior research and data gathered from firms under Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) litigation indicate that managers use either one or more than one component of accruals simultaneously, in a consistent way to manipulate bottom-line earnings in a given direction. I propose two measures that capture the consistency between the discretionary components of accruals and test their significance in earnings management (EM) detection in firms that have artificially added accrual manipulation and firms that were targeted by the SEC for accrual manipulation. There is evidence that this information is incrementally useful in detecting EM. This finding paves the way for improvements in the discretionary accruals measure by including consistency information from the components of aggregate accruals.     

Summary of Results of Survey of Seminar Attendees

Abstract

The Society of Actuaries undertook a three-phase research project on mortality improvement in the three NAFTA countries: Canada, Mexico, and the U.S. Phase 1 consisted of a literature review of papers on projecting mortality levels in the future and a study of the trend in mortality improvement during this century. Phase 2 consisted of a discussion of different facets of modeling mortality rates at a seminar attended by 79 experts (actuaries, demographers, economists, and medical researchers) representing different countries. The last session of the seminar consisted of the completion of a survey by the attendees to obtain input for Phase 3, which would analyze the impact of mortality improvement on the social security system of each country. This paper summarizes the results of the survey.

The survey results illustrate the difficulty in forecasting mortality levels, because the effects of many factors that could have significant impact on mortality rates are unknown. This suggests the need for dynamic forecasting, which allows for the possibility of random shocks. A majority of the survey respondents believe that stochastic forecasting models, despite their complexity, have significant potential to add value. Respondents also believe that both historical data and cause-specific mortality forecasts are useful as input and also in validating forecasts of the aggregate levels of mortality. The challenge is to develop more sophisticated forecasting models to produce results that are relatively easy to interpret and to communicate these results to the desired audiences, including the public and policymakers.

The survey results suggest that the aggregate effect of lifestyle changes, medical advances, diseases, catastrophe, and physical environmental changes is an increase in life span. However, there is much uncertainty about the future. Respondents expect that beyond the year 2020 the mean annual rate of reduction in mortality for males age 65 and over will average about 0.58% for Canada, 0.76% for Mexico, and 0.67% for the U.S. The results for the female age 65 and over population are 0.64%, 0.83%, and 0.70%, respectively. The age 65 and over population is expected to see larger percentage reductions in mortality than the 0–14 and 15–64 populations. The reductions in male and female mortality will be ultimately the same, and the mortality levels in the three countries will ultimately converge, although differences may persist for decades.     

Separation of Unit of Account from Medium of Exchange

The separation of a unit of account (UoA) from a medium of exchange (MoE) in the commodity–money system is investigated by considering explicitly a seller's choice of UoA in terms of either an MoE or a unit of metal weight. If the likelihood of debasement of an MoE and its rate are high enough, the price is posted in terms of a unit of metal weight rather than an MoE. Interestingly, this MoE–UoA separated equilibrium yields the flexible nominal price, whereas an MoE–UoA integrated equilibrium yields the sticky one. This implies the nominal price rigidity in the fiat‐money system where MoE and UoA are integrated.