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由于近年来油价的下跌,能源股的价格也一直在低位徘徊,然而《巴伦周刊》文章认为:埃克森美孚、雪佛龙以及壳牌这样的大公司不但市盈率低而且分红也相当诱人,是投资者不可多得的好机会。由于今年石油的供给增长速度远远超过需求,能源股的价格一直徘徊不前。原油的价格下跌了将近10%,西德克萨斯轻质原油价格为108美元,而布伦特原油价格为90美元。石油市场一直寄希望     

石油化工 原油波动 投资机遇将现

此轮原油价格上涨,供给偏紧及全球性流动性过剩是主要原因。美元进入了长期下降通道,即便期间有小幅反弹,但不改羸弱前景,预计2008年原油均价为120美元确。在原油波动下,中石化、中石油具备交易型投资机会。     

黄金三年来首次失守1200美元大关

原油：四连阳走高 上周四,受到一系列利好的美国经济数据推动,原油价格延续之前的走势继续上涨,能源产品的需求前景转好帮助原油价格实现了连续第四个交易日收高的积极走势。     

失守千三 黄金前景暗淡

原油：震荡走高 上周四,原油价格继续受到乌克兰局势不确定性从而影响供应前景,以及利好的美国经济数据从需求预期层面的支持,主力原油合约在场内交易中收高。     

我国现金供给的“内生性”和“外生性”及启示

现金供给有其特有的供给流程和特点,使得现金供给具有"内生性"和"外生性"。分析现金供给的"内生性"和"外生性",在尊重经济发展内在规律和趋势的同时强调人的主观能动性,对于更好做好现金供给工作具有重要的意义。     

触底的油价能否继续代言加元走势

加元作为商品货币之一，其走势与原油等商品价格存在着一定的相关连带性。加拿大作为原油的主要出口国之一，原油价格的变动对其汇率走势有着一定的影响。从去年原油价格的运行轨迹来看，上半年原油价格在需求以及投机力量的推动下出现大幅上升走势，带动加元／美元汇率上升，促使其一度突破历史高点；年中由于投机头寸的获利平仓以及全球经济在各国宏观调控下开始放缓，原油价格几乎跌去了上半年全部涨幅，加元做出了不同程度的调整。原油与加元这种紧密的相关性，促使许多投资者往往从商品价格的趋势中寻找加元的走向。但2007年初原油价格的掘底，使得我们难以断言加元未来的趋势走向。     

石油价格波动的历史追踪

通常人们所关注和研究的石油价格,实际主要是指原油价格.从长期的历史回顾看,原油价格和其他商品的价格一样是主要随着供求的变化而变化.展望未来,需求和OPEC、非OPEC国家供给的变化将继续导致石油价格的波动.     

货币供应内生性、流动性过剩及通货膨胀的内在联系研究

经济学界对货币供应一直存在内生性与外生性之争.据对中国改革开放20多年以来有关数据的统计分析,货币内生性理论较好地诠释了中央银行货币供给行为.货币流动性过剩是导致通货膨胀的主要因素,但由于货币供给的内生性,使得货币需求倒逼货币供应,中央银行调控流动性往往很难达到预期效果.金融危机是本次通货膨胀的诱因,宽松货币政策和四万...     

局势缓和 黄金受压

原油：需求前景乐观 上周四,国际能源署（IEA）在最新的报告中对全球原油的需求前景做出了更加乐观的评估,将2014年的全球需求提高每天110万桶至每天9200万桶,原油价格受到鼓励延续了之前一个交易日的涨幅;另一方面,叙利亚危机的解决前景仍不明朗,也对油价提供了一定程度支撑,主力原油合约场内交易中逐级走高。     

俄乌对峙下大类资产何去何从

俄乌局势已经对全球大宗市场产生了不可忽视的较大影响,尤其是对石油、天然气、粮食等大宗商品的供求带来重大影响. 短期:大宗市场的波动 2021年,俄罗斯原油产量5.24亿吨,占世界原油产量的比例达到12.6％.紧张局势对俄罗斯的原油供给造成了压制.2021年12月下旬以来,布伦特原油价格上涨了38.5％,已触及100美元...     

Has Petroleum Pricing Reform in China Achieved Its Objective? An Empirical Study

China’s petroleum pricing reform has started since 1998 and is still ongoing. It has a profound impact on China’s oil market and even global oil market. We quantitatively evaluate the effectiveness of the reform on two key issues. Has the pricing reform strengthened the linkage between the international crude market and China’s petroleum products market? Has the pricing reform magnified shocks to the international crude market on China’s economy? Our results show that the reform has strengthened the relationship between China’s petroleum prices and international crude price without negative influence on China’s economy, but the effect of China’s petroleum prices on international crude price is still limited. Furthermore, the reform helps the Chinese government reduce oil subsidies.     

货币因素、供给冲击与中国通胀动态特征

本文将以货币供应量和汇率为代表的货币因素、供给因素以及需求因素引入菲利普斯曲线建立了新凯恩斯混合菲利普斯曲线,并利用1995年第1季度～2013年第2季度的数据来实证分析不同因素对于我国通货膨胀动态衍化的影响。研究表明：前瞻性预期与通货膨胀惯性对于我国通货膨胀的影响同时存在,但是前瞻性预期对于我国通货膨胀的影响较大;其次,货币供应量变动对于我国通货膨胀率影响具有最重要的作用,而代表需求因素的产出缺口以及代表供给冲击的原油价格对于我国通货膨胀的影响很小;最后,人民币实际汇率升值对通货膨胀可以产生一定的抑制作用,但作用不大。     

The Impact of Oil Price Shocks on the Returns in China’s Stock Market

The main goal of this paper is to study the relationship between oil price shocks and mainland China’s stock market. From empirical study, we have found that the impact of oil price shocks on stock prices in China has been mixed. In contrast to the conventional wisdom that higher oil prices may cause lower stock prices, positive shocks to oil-market-specific demand resulted in both higher real oil prices and higher stock prices, which helps explain the boom of the Chinese stock market as oil prices were increasing in 2007. However, global oil demand and supply shocks had no significant effects.     

What is going on in the oil market?

Conclusion In this article, we propose a consistent view on the recent oil-price history based on fundamental data and economic theory. We sum up: After the turn of the century three major stylized shocks have hit market. First, the demand curve has shifted fight outwards, mainly driven, as extensively reported in the media, by sustained growth in China and other Asian Countries. Second, supply disruptions in countries with low extraction costs (Iraq and Venezuela) have shifted the supply curve to the left. Third, we show that speculators adjust their inventories in order to take advantage of predictable price fluctuations and play themselves a major role in the price formation. Optimal storage theory implies that aggregate inventories are negatively related to the oil price and positively to the volatility of supply and demand shocks. We provide evidence that the political events in the last years have increased volatility and induced the inventory curve to shift right outwards. We analyze in a graphical framework the interaction of all these shocks and conclude that speculators have caused the oil price to overshoot in the short run its long-run fundamental value. However, this is not at all attributable to market failure or the harmfulness of speculators. In fact, the opposite is true. Speculators have in general a dampening effect on the oil price. The record oil price in the very recent history is partly a consequence of speculators maintaining or building-up inventories to cope with the supply and demand shocks to come. Hence, high prices represent a short-term toll for future price stability. It follows from our analysis that the oil price is expected to fall towards its long-term mean, provided that no further shocks hit the economy and, critically, the oil supply. As we saw, this prediction is consistent with the observed prices in the futures markets. Also in terms of future price volatility, the outlook is rather upbeat. The increased inventory levels held by speculators will cushion the spot market against fluctuations in natural supply and demand and limit the degree to which the currently high underlying volatility will translate into higher price volatility. We would like to thank Manuel Ammann, Bernd Brommundt, Stephan Kessler, Ralf Seiz, Michael Verhofen, Hemrich von Wyss, and two anonymous referees for helpful comments We are particularly indebted to Sergej Peisotchenko at United Energy System (UES) of Russia and Jan Gjerde at Shell for clearing us up on technical aspects of oil production     

Demand effects and speculation in oil markets: Theory and evidence

We present evidence showing the existence of stable cointegrating vectors connecting four important variables in the U.S. and global oil markets: oil production, stocks of crude oil, the real price of oil, and broad measures of income. Our data are monthly, and go back to the 1930s, split into sub-samples which correspond to periods before and after the 1973 crisis. We further show that the cointegrating vectors found in the data accord well with an extended commodity storage model which allows for demand growth dynamics and for supply regimes. Specifically, inventories and price move in opposite directions when supply is flexible, but the relationship reverses so that they comove when supply is inflexible.     

去伪存真:油价趋势与股票市场——来自“一带一路”35国的经验证据

油价波动深刻影响全球经济,严重时会造成全球股市动荡,甚至引发系统性金融风险。然而油价中的信息噪音严重阻碍国际油价对股票市场的预测效果。本文提出的移动平均法可有效减弱信息噪音,研究表明,本文基于移动平均法构建的油价趋势因子对“一带一路”沿线国家股票市场具有良好的样本内和样本外可预测性。进一步研究发现,国际油价波动对产油国和非产油国股票市场的影响存在非对称性。本文为国际油价冲击股票市场提供了新的有力证据,同时本文研究成果提示了油价风险,对维持我国股票市场稳定,保持金融稳定具有一定意义。     

Asymmetric impacts of disaggregated oil price shocks on uncertainties and investor sentiment

This paper aims to examine short- and long-run asymmetries in the impacts of disaggregated oil price shocks on economic policy uncertainty, stock market uncertainty, treasury rates, and investor (bullish and bearish) sentiment in the US. To this end, we use a nonlinear auto-regressive distributed lag cointegration approach, which allows us to capture both positive and negative disaggregated oil shocks. We find that oil demand shocks are the main drivers of both measures of uncertainty, while oil supply shocks affect treasury rates. However, both oil demand shocks and oil supply shocks affect investor sentiment, with certain differences in the effects of positive and negative shocks. The overall effects of both oil demand and supply shocks—whether positive or negative—are stronger in the long-run than in the short-run. Additionally, we apply rolling causality and reveal evidence of a rather homogenous causal flow from disaggregated oil shocks to the variables studied, particularly around global stress periods. Our findings have implications for asset pricing and portfolio risk management and suggest policy formulations that differentiate between disaggregated positive and negative oil price shocks.

     

国际原油价格波动对中国物价水平的影响

本文在多变量VAR模型的基础上,分别采用协整检验、脉冲响应和方差分解方法分析了国际原油价格对中国物价水平的影响.结果显示：国际石油价格冲击对中国物价水平的影响是显著的,对中国生产者物价水平的影响速度大于对消费者物价水平的影响,对中国生产者物价水平的影响程度大于对消费者物价水平的影响.     

2006年石油价格展望

本文对影响2006年石油价格的因素做了系统分析。认为2006年形成油价风险的主要动因已从需求的波动转向供给的波动;2006年油价将由于供求的脆弱平衡维持高位运行的格局,并且,由于供给链中潜在的危机,油价波动性将会非常大;但在全球经济增速下降、石油需求增长放缓、石油生产国家和公司仍然在努力满足市场需求、炼油瓶颈有望缓和的大背景下,油价在2006年按2005年可比价格计不会大幅上升,不会对全球经济产生重大负面影响。     

The Effects of Oil Supply and Demand Shocks on U.S. Consumer Sentiment

This paper investigates how the University of Michigan's Index of Consumer Sentiment responds to oil price shocks. While oil supply shocks play only a limited role, the effect of aggregate demand shocks is positive for the first few months and negative thereafter. A typical other oil demand shock has a significant negative impact for up to 2 years. By studying the responses of individual survey questions, we find that expectations of future inflation and a change in real household income as well as perceived vehicle and house buying conditions are the main transmission channels of oil supply and demand shocks.